03/21/10

Hits since June 1, 2003

Minnesota Twins 2010 Prospect Handbook Now Available for Order!

3/10/10 Update –You can now order the Minnesota Twins 2010 Prospect Handbook here.

As you receive your Prospect Handbook, please let me know. If you have any feedback or thoughts, please feel free to e-mail me or leave comments here. Your feedback is incredibly important to me. I am very happy with how the book turned out, but would still love to hear your thoughts.  

Thank you to those who have reviewed the Prospect Handbook: Prospect Junkies, Twins Target, Scouting the Sally, Prospect Paradise, BP Baseball Blog, K-Bro’s Baseball Blog , Jonathan Mayo, John Sickels, Josh Johnson, Camden Crazies , ScoutingBook, Tangotiger’s The Book, (if you see others, please let me know).

Monday, March 22, 2010

Roster Projections:

Minnesota Twins

·         Last night, I hosted an impromptu podcast. I was joined by Fanatic Jack and Travis Aune and we talked about lots of Twins topics, from the signing of Joe Mauer (Scroll down for my thoughts) to the announcement that Joe Nathan officially needs Tommy John surgery. Lots of live listeners, and you can listen to it here.

Alright, Opening Day is just two weeks away. The minor league seasons will begin in about 2 ½ weeks. It’s late time for me to post my roster projections. I know a lot of people in the cities of the Twins affiliates appreciate this, having an idea of who they may be able to see in their home stadium this year. Today I will be posting my projected Twins roster. Tomorrow I’ll post my projection on the Rochester Roster and so on through the week until I post my projected Beloit roster on Friday.

So here we go, starting with, the Minnesota Twins:

The Hitters

Analysis: I guess there really aren’t any surprises here. Yes, Nick Punto will likely start at 3B just as much as Brendan Harris. I think as long as he isn’t traded, Alexi Casilla will make the roster because he is out of options and they don’t want to lose him for nothing. And, I think I’ve been fairly clear on my thoughts that Wilson Ramos needs at bats and time behind the plate, so being a backup, even for a short time, makes no sense. Mauer, Morneau, Hudson, Hardy, Young, Span, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome. This is a pretty exciting lineup that is going to score a lot of runs.

The Pitchers

Analysis: Starting Five looks set and looks really good. We’ve spent the last couple of months trying to convince ourselves that Francisco Liriano could turn things around, and so far, so good. The other four are just very solid, if not underrated. I put Matt Guerrier in the closer’s role, just because he did such a good job in the 8^th inning (often against the other team’s best hitters), that there is no reason to think he can’t do it in the 9^th inning. If not, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain or even Pat Neshek can get the job done. My thoughts on Neshek’s return have changed somewhat. He appears to be back and continues to get better and stronger. I now believe that he will make this roster, and who knows, by midseason, he could be closing too. Clay Condrey hasn’t been very good in spring, but he was solid for the Phillies the last three years, so I trust that over six or seven innings in March. Finally, the final bullpen spot may be determined by how much Gardy wants a second left-hander. If he is insistent upon it, then Brian Duensing is the guy. If he’s looking for the best relief pitcher, then Anthony Slama is the guy. Slama hasn’t pitched much this spring, but when he has, he has done well. It will be good to see him facing some big league hitters the next couple of weeks.

If you would like, you can e-mail me, or feel free to leave your comments here.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Finally!!! (8 years, $184 million)

UPDATE – I’ll be hosting a podcast tonight here at 9:00 p.m. central time. We will talk Twins, primarily probably the Joe Mauer contract, but the many side effects of it, the bullpen situation after we found out today that Joe Nathan will have Tommy John surgery, and much more.

Well, no one said it would be easy, but finally, just minutes ago, the Twins and Joe Mauer agreed to an eight year, $184 million contract extension. That means he will still make his $12.5 million contract in 2010 and then will be with the Twins through the 2018 season.

So, what do you think? Here are some random thoughts as I’m hearing the news now:

·         Happy Birthday to Kelly Thesier, but Mauer did not give you your request to let you enjoy your birthday. Now you have to work!

·         Several of us continued to tell people not to expect much of a hometown discount. He got a record $5.15 million signing bonus when he signed out of high school. He got a huge four year contract that bought out his first year of free agency, 2010. So we shouldn’t have expected him to give a hometown discount… We hoped.

·         He will make $23 million each year from 2011 to 2018.

·         That will be somewhere between 20 and 25 percent of the team’s salaries, generally not a good idea. However, despite the $23 million, there will still be another $80-90 million to spend each year. Of course, when you add up the contracts of Justin Morneau, Scott Baker, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Joe Nathan and others, that $80 million could go quickly.

·         Joe Mauer missed a month of the 2009 season due to INJURY. He is a catcher. Believe me when I say, the RISK is entirely on the Twins in this deal. Don’t think for a minute that this is some sort of Twins-friendly deal.

·         Yes, this deal is more than just about baseball, but from a purely baseball aspect, it isn’t a great deal.

·         Fourth highest contract in baseball history… Anyone still want to call the Twins cheap?

·         Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson, JJ Hardy were all nice, but many Twins fans held the entire success of the offseason on the Mauer contract being signed. That is now complete. I again would like to encourage people to send Bill Smith, Rob Antony and others an apology letter. The Twins will and should get a A grade for their offseason.

·         It will be interesting to see how Twins fans treat Mauer at this point. What happens when he goes 0-12 in a three game series? What happens when he jogs down to first base on a ground out to second, as he always does? What is going to happen when certain big name free agents have to be let go because of this signing?

·         Twins fans will be thrilled today, and for a couple of years, the Twins fans will have to accept that this signing means that they won’t be keeping other players.

·         NO, they should not trade Wilson Ramos, at least not for something as insignificant as a relief pitcher like Heath Bell!

Alright, now this is finally done… what are your thoughts? Too much? Fair market? What does it mean?

If you would like, you can e-mail me, or feel free to leave your comments here.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Links and Thinks

So, for the past couple of weeks, I have posted a bunch of Q&As with many Twins minor leaguers. I always enjoy reading more about the minor leaguers, but to read their thoughts and learn more about them is really fun. I have not been keeping up with thinks to other Twins blogs and stories lately, so I thought a big weekend posting with several links would be appropriate.

·         First, I was able to go to Target Field today with the Twins Geek and The Voice of Reason for an Open House for season ticket holders. If you are a ‘friend’ of mine on Facebook, I posted about 30 pictures of the stadium on Saturday. The facility is amazing. Every seat faces the infield. The concourses are huge. You can watch the game from anywhere. It’s got so many neat attributes all around the stadium. The art and photography is incredible. It was just such a great place, and I was glad to be able to see it already. Oh, and with temperatures sitting around 30 degrees, the heated lighting systems around the concourse were very nice! We even ran in to Fanatic Jack who was equally excited to see the new stadium, which still has some things to finish up before the season begins.

·         Roger Dehring writes his weekly minor league update over at Twinkie Town. This weeks’ update is terrific. Roger is in Ft. Myers and was able to watch a minor league game and talk to a player and some players’ family members. Hopefully he’ll send more updates.

·         This week at the TwinsCentric StarTribune blog:

o   John was puzzled by the Twins long contracts to Nick Blackburn and Denard Span.

o   I wrote about the Wilson Ramos/Drew Butera backup catcher situation.

o   Nick posted an analysis of the Twins Left Field situation.

o   John discussed the importance of an anchor to a pitching staff.

o   Parker spent the week in Ft. Myers, and while he was there, he was able to sit down with Twins assistant GM Rob Antony. His Friday blog wrote about part of his interview discussing RBI versus Slugging Percentage.

·         Here are Josh’s Thoughts on his Number 6 and Number 7 Prospects.

·         K-Bro made a case for letting Joe Nathan and his arm wait.

·         There was not a new episode of The Show this week, but there was still plenty of Twins discussion on some podcasts:

o   DW The Great’s Saturday morning show had lots of guests.

o   Travis and I discussed (and argued) about a lot of Twins subjects on the Travis Talks Minnesota Sports podcast on Monday night. 

o   Fanatic Jack’s Twins Talk podcast on Wednesday night was excellent.

o   Be sure to go to Twins MVB tonight (Sunday) for this week’s MVB Live show from an unknown, surprise location.

·         Hitting the Eephus digs into who can replace Joe Nathan?

·         I think I’m going to go on a Twins Train Twins trip sometime this year. I’d really like to. Check out their trips and let me know which one I should go on. Maybe a bunch of us can all go on the same trip?! 

·         Call to the Pen looks at an important, epic performance by Scott Baker.

·         Undomed considers the 12 man pitching staff.

·         At the Knuckleballs blog, Jim Crikket posted some pictures and a story from Saturday’s Twins/Rays game.

·         Jim Crikket is also keeping busy in Ft. Myers by writing on Howard Sinker’s blog too.

·         Apparently Phil Rogers is impressed by Max Kepler, but Mickey Mantle comparisons… come on!

If you would like, you can e-mail me, or feel free to leave your comments here.

Friday, March 19, 2010

For Whom the Bell Tolls?

Apparently the Twins are still considering acquiring Heath Bell from the Padres. In his three years as a Padres reliever, he has gone 18-14 with 44 saves and a 2.72 ERA. Of course, 42 of those saves came just last year when he was also 6-4 with a 2.71 ERA. I guess the Padres have been asking the world for the already-32 year old righty. So basically, he’s got about a half-year more closer experience than Jon Rauch who spent half of a season as the Nationals’ closer.

But anyway, apparently the Twins are still considering Bell. So my question today is “What would you give up for him?” The Padres would want a speedy outfielder and pitching in return.

Outfielders:

·         The name we hear reported most is Ben Revere. He definitely meets the ‘speedy’ criteria. He is a high batting average, low power, young outfielder with a lot of improvement still to make in the outfield, particularly his lack of arm strength.

·         The Twins would not trade Aaron Hicks for anything, especially not a 65-70 inning guy.

·         Angel Morales is a guy I personally would not even consider for a relief pitcher. Although he is probably better suited for right-field, he has the speed to play centerfield as well.

·         Joe Benson is a guy with as much upside as any of the above. He finally came into his own last year a little bit, even with the unfortunate hand injury in the middle of the season. At Ft. Myers, he hit a.285 and was on base 41.4% of the time. Behind Revere, there is probably not a faster player in the Twins system. At 22, he could be ready for a true breakout season.

·         Rene Tosoni is another Twins minor league outfielder who I’ve got in my Top 10 Twins prospects. But I really think that he is a corner outfielder. I do think that he could be a big league contributor in 2010.

Pitchers:

·         Glen Perkins – The lefty’s name was brought up in rumors involving Kevin Kouzmanoff. Just a year ago, he was in the Twins starting rotation. In a huge ball park, his fly ball tendencies could be less of an issue and he could become a very solid starting pitcher there.

·         Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship, Brian Duensing – Other Twins starting pitching options. Duensing was huge for the Twins during the final six weeks last season and could start 2010 in the bullpen thanks to the re-emergence of Francisco Liriano. Swarzak and Manship are both still young with some upside who could be coveted by other teams.

·         Rob Delaney – The Twins sent him down already, but the reliever has been impressive since signing as a non-drafted free agent after the 2006 draft. He could essentially replace Bell in the San Diego bullpen. He is six years younger.

Alexi Casilla seems to have the Twins utility infielder spot despite being bad. Matt Tolbert has just been worse. Since Casilla is out of options, would you add him to a package for Bell. Do you think a package of Joe Benson, Glen Perkins and Alexi Casilla is too much? I do. Would you consider trading Revere straight up for Bell? How about selling high on Luke Hughes or Juan Portes after their solid performances in camp? What are your thoughts on Heath Bell and what would you trade to acquire him? If you would like, you can e-mail me, or feel free to leave your comments here.

Friday, March 19, 2010

Spring Training Q&A:

Twins Pitching Prospect BJ Hermsen

BJ Hermsen was drafted by the Twins with their 6^th round pick in the 2008 draft. Most believed he should have been drafted much higher, but it was believed that he would go to Oregon State to pitch. Just before the deadline, the Twins and Hermsen came to an agreement well above 6^th round slot. The Iowa native has a very projectable body type. He is 6-6 and 230 pounds. He doesn’t throw real hard but he has terrific control. With the GCL Twins last season, he went 6-2 with a 1.35 ERA. In 53.1 innings, he struck out 42 and walked just four hitters. He should continue to improve. He could start the 2010 season In Beloit, although I would not be surprised if the Twins kept him in Extended Spring Training until a spot opened up for him before the Elizabethton season opens in late June. Today, you can check out BJ’s responses to our spring training questions.  

(To see all previous SethSpeaks.net Q&As, click here) (and feel free to leave questions or comments here)

…Let the Questions Begin!

SethSpeaks: Now that you’ve had a few months to look back and reflect, what are your thoughts on your 2009 season?

BJ Hermsen: Overall, I thought the 2009 season went really well. I learned something new with every outing. It was exciting to make the GCL playoffs, and even though we lost in the first round, it was a great experience.

SethSpeaks: What do you do when you’re not playing baseball or working out in preparation for the upcoming season?

BJ Hermsen: This past winter I helped coach the varsity basketball team at my high school. It was something new and I really enjoyed it. If I wasn’t doing that then I was watching my sister play on the girls’ varsity basketball team. Otherwise I just spent time with family and friends.
 

SethSpeaks: When did you start getting ready for the 2010 season, and what was your routine?

BJ Hermsen: I took about three weeks or so off after Instructional League finished and then followed the workouts that were given to us. I didn’t start throwing until the start of January and I did all of it inside.

SethSpeaks: What are your goals for the 2010 season? Where would you like to play, and are there any statistics that you are looking to improve?

BJ Hermsen: I just want to continue to learn more about pitching, the game, and stay healthy. I would like to be in Beloit but if that isn’t the case, I’m still going to pitch to the best of my ability.

SethSpeaks: What does spring training mean for you, and what are you looking forward to this year?

BJ Hermsen: It means that the baseball season is finally here. I enjoy seeing everybody again and I’m looking forward to a great year.

SethSpeaks: Who was your favorite player to watch when you were growing up?

BJ Hermsen: I was always a Greg Maddux fan growing up. The way he pitched was something I enjoyed watching.

SethSpeaks: What team did you grow up watching and cheering for?

BJ Hermsen: I was a big Cardinals fan growing up. My dad was a huge Cardinals fan, as was most of my family. I followed suit and watched a lot of the games on TV with my dad.

SethSpeaks: What were your thoughts around the draft and after being drafted by the Twins?

BJ Hermsen: It was a stressful time and I’m glad it’s out of the way. Being drafted by the Twins was exciting because they have a great reputation for developing and preparing players.

SethSpeaks: Best thing of career in baseball? 

BJ Hermsen: Being able to do something I love every day.

SethSpeaks: Toughest thing of career in baseball? 

BJ Hermsen: Not being able to see family and friends on a regular basis is definitely tough.

SethSpeaks: Funniest story in your minor league career? 

BJ Hermsen: There are quite a few stories that were pretty funny but they probably aren't very appropriate.

SethSpeaks:  What would it mean to make your big league debut?

BJ Hermsen: It would mean that I reached a very important goal of mine and that years of hard work were paying off.

Thank you very much to BJ Hermsen for taking time to respond. If you would like, you can e-mail me, or feel free to leave your comments here.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Free Pass?

Ben Revere got off to a quick start this spring with some multi-hit games. He leads all Twins in plate appearances this spring, in part, because of the lack of other true center field options.

Like Revere, Juan Portes was another non-roster invitee. He hit three home runs and a double in his first 11 at bats. Was it an oversight that he was not in my most recent Top 50 Twins Prospect ranking? Probably. However, I still wouldn’t put him in the top 40. But he has done exactly what you would want a non-roster player to do, make an impression.

Luke Hughes didn’t have a lot of opportunity early in camp, but in the last couple of days, he has had a three-hit game and a walk-off double today. He has also played quite a bit at second base and more than held his own.

Danny Valencia came into camp hoping to be given a shot at winning the third base job. Although he is just 4-18, he has two doubles and a home run. He has 18 at bats, the same number as Brendan Harris and one more than Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto.

Stats mean very little in spring training. Valencia may be hitting .222 (4-18), but a 3-3 puts him a .333. Portes’s batting average has fallen over .400 points over the last week.

But there is one set of statistics that is worth watching. For both hitters and for pitchers, I like to look at their number of walks to their number of strikeouts. I realize that not every player has to be the same, but guys like Denard Span and Joe Mauer walk more than they strike out. For a power hitter like Justin Morneau, it is good just to see those numbers close. You want hitters who are patient and willing to wait for a good pitch.  So how have these four players done in the walk to strikeout ratios?

·         Ben Revere – 32 at bats, 0 walks, 10 strikeouts. Not exactly the walk to strikeout rate you want from a leadoff hitter. Yes, he’s hitting a solid .281, but his on-base percentage is also .281. And that is a high strikeout rate for a contact hitter. This doesn’t take anything away from Revere as a prospect, and is not meant to do so. I just think that many are now of the impression that he is ready. He will go to AA New Britain and let’s just let him play. This has been a good experience for him, but he clearly needs much more development time.

·         Juan Portes – 21 at bats, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts. Portes has never been a real patient hitter. The strikeout rate (1 in 3) is obviously too high. It’s one of those things where he is hitting .381 and has shown the power, but it doesn’t mean he is ready. As I look at potential rosters, I can’t see a scenario in which he isn’t playing in AA again this year, and I think it will be a good thing for him. The thing that I would like to see him do if he does repeat, is maintain the power stroke and show more power.

·         Luke Hughes – 20 at bats, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts. One less at bat than Portes, but basically the same story. No walks and too many strikeouts. I actually compare Portes to Hughes quite a bit as they both do not have a real strong defensive position. They both will advance based on their bats. I expect that Hughes will spend the season in Rochester, playing 2B, 3B and the corner OF positions while DHing too. I do think that he will debut with the Twins sometime during the season.

·         Danny Valencia – 18 at bats, 0 walks, 6 strikeouts – One of the concerns on Valencia. After moving up to Rochester, he had just eight walks to go with 269 at bats. Now, he has always had a solid Isolated Discipline previous to that half-season, so I’m not worried. But it does suggest that it isn’t a mistake by the Twins to let him get a couple more months of AAA time under his belt.

Ideally, it would be nice to start camp by taking some pitches, working counts, being patient and taking good at bats. It should come as no surprise that some players with no big league experience, who are trying to make a good impression on the big league coaching staff, are probably a little too anxious and trying to do too much. This is yet another example of the whole Small Sample Size phenomena. It is why most decisions do not happen in spring training based on 20 to 40 plate appearances. What happens over a couple of hundred at bats matters much more. All four of these players are worth watching in 2010. I expect to see both Hughes and Valencia in a Twins uniform at some point this season. Revere has shown some very positive things considering his age, but he has also shown that he should not be rushed, even to AAA.

From a pitching standpoint, there are a few things to note. First, Scott Baker has one walk and nine strikeouts in nine innings. Kevin Slowey has one walk and eight strikeouts in eight innings. It’s impressive that two guys who are working more on throwing strikes and gaining arm strength still have enough to get a strikeout an inning. How about Francisco Liriano? The lefty has one walk and 12 strikeouts in just seven innings of work. Talk about the types of numbers that create Ace discussions!

On Thursday, the Twins sent Rob Delaney back to minor league camp. He wasn’t going to make the team, but I was hoping he might get a little longer look. I know he had given up some hits (9 hits in 5.1 innings), but when I saw his walk to strikeout rate, I was impressed. In 5.1 innings, he had 0 walks and nine strikeouts. That bodes well for his 2010 season in Rochester. He needs to find a way to miss more bats, but he does have tremendous control.

On the other end of the spectrum, Jeff Manship has five walks and four strikeouts in 5.2 innings. There is nothing in his minor league track record to indicate any control problems, so I definitely attribute this to a small sample size and early season. He has also allowed another nine hits (including two home runs). But in his outing on Wednesday, he fell behind Evan Longoria 3-1 in an at bat, and came back to strike him out on two sharp curveballs. Those are the things that tell you that he will be just fine.

And I would think that the Twins wanted Glen Perkins to have a solid camp so they could trade him. He has written his ticket for Rochester, unless some team saw something. In his six innings, he has five walks and 13 hits allowed. Ouch! He also has just two strikeouts.

Again, I have to reiterate the small sample size nature of spring training numbers for both pitchers and catchers. But I do think we can learn a little bit from walks and strikeouts.  

If you have any thoughts, you can e-mail me, or feel free to leave your comments here.

     Most Recent Postings (for a complete list, check out the Archives)

 

3/22/10 – Roster Projections: Minnesota Twins

3/21/10 – Finally! (8 years, $184 million)

3/21/10 – Links and Thinks 

3/19/10 – For Whom the Bell Tolls?

3/19/10 – Spring Training Q&A: BJ Hermsen  

3/18/10 – Free Pass?

3/18/10 – Spring Training Q&A: Chris Herrmann

3/16/10 – Backup Plan?

3/15/10 – Spring Training Q&A: Nate Hanson  

3/13/10 – Spring Training Q&A: Jan Rehacek

3/12/10 – Spring Training Q&A: Bobby Lanigan

3/11/10 – Spring Training Q&A: Danny Rams

3/11/10 – Spring Training Q&A: Dakota Watts

3/10/10 – Spring Training Q&A: Tyler Robertson

3/10/10 – Spring Training Q&A: Brad Tippett 

 

11/27/08 – Now Available: Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - 2009

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