Week of December 26, 2005

LAZY WEEK

Welcome back everyone! Sorry I missed yesterday completely, but it was the day after Christmas and I stayed out of town. I almost feel bad, but I really, really don't. Sorry!

Anyway, as you can see from the title of the entry today, it is going to be a lazy week for me at SethSpeaks.net. Instead of daily postings, I will only be posting periodically throughout the week. I really don't know if that will be a lot, or very little. It is almost like taking the week off, yet posting occasionally as topics present themselves. In other words, I came back from being gone for three days and saw a few baseball signings of note. So, I'll touch on some of them and offer an opinion. I will also post the football picks for Week 17 on Friday, unless I get all entries before then.

We will see how it ends up, I guess. But worry not. Next week, I will return with a typical offseason week of entries. I will write on Monday. I already have a great Question and Answer with another minor league ball player of note ready for Tuesday. I hope to have someone offer up a Why Baseball article for Wednesday, and Roger has one more Twins minor league positional review which will be posted on Thursday.

And then suddenly we're into the second week of 2006, and pitchers and catchers will report in five to six weeks, so I will begin doing some of my Fantasy Perspectives, which will again be a 12 or 13 part series depending on how I do it. As I have done in the past, this will be a team-by-team, position-by-position look at all of the Major League rosters. I know not everyone plays fantasy baseball, and that is fine. My analysis is very little in terms of fantasy, but I do have fun just making some comments and projections. If nothing else, it will be fun for people to have a place where they can see which players went where.

But again, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. I've already written too much for a "Lazy Week", right? I'll just start here and work my way down. We'll see how much we have for today, and remember to check back from time to time to see if I have added anything new since you last looked. If I do, it will be added with a day and time marking. So, let's get started...

Tuesday, December 27, 2005

First things first, I do have to say Happy Birthday to my sister Heather. I have mentioned her on the site before. She may be as big a Twins fan as me. She gets to lots more games than I do. Of course, she lives about 6 hours closer to Metrodome than me, but that doesn't really matter! Anyway, Happy Birthday!

When I got back home, I had not looked at a computer for about three days, which is crazy for me. The funny thing was that I didn't really even miss it! Weird! But, when I got back, the first thing I did was go to ESPN.com's MLB Transaction page to see if anything had happened since I'd last checked it. What happened?

• Johnny Damon officially signed with the Yankees on Friday. Yes, he was clean-shaven and looked rather dorky. But, he'll help them a little bit.

• Since the Yankees stole someone from the Red Sox, the Sox felt the need to return the favor. They signed free agent catcher John Flaherty to a contract! Kind of the same, right??? Or not! Ha!

• The Cardinals have had a rough offseason. They lost Larry Walker, John Mabry, Reggie Sanders, Abraham Nunez, Mark Grudzielanek and Matt Morris. Who have they brought in? Not much. I mean, does anyone think that the seemingly veteran friendly situation in St. Louis will help revive the career of troubled righty Sidney Ponson? , on Friday, they did sign a couple more veterans. 2B Junior Spivey who was an All-Star about forever ago was signed. Also, they agreed to a three year, $15 million deal with OF Juan Encarnacion. Honestly, Encarnacion is the right-handed equivalent of Jacque Jones, so this is really just a fair-market signing. Encarnacion obviously doesn't have the severe lefty-righty splits as Jones, but he is equally aggressive at the plate. I like that signing though.

• The Blue Jays continue to receive accolades from the media for their offseason. Now, AJ Burnett could be good, maybe even ace-like at some point, but certainly not worth $55 million. And I am a huge BJ Ryan fan, but he got WAY too much money too. Bringing in Lyle Overbay was a very nice acquisition for the Blue Jays. But now, it appears that they are on the verge of acquiring 3B Troy Glaus from the Diamondbacks in exchange for Miguel Batista and Orlando Hudson. Now, on the surface, it isn't a horrible deal. Glaus could provide power, and Batista is really without a role for the Jays and Hudson can't hit much. However, Glaus still has three years, and about $33 million left on his contract. He also has an injury history. He is far from a complete player. And worse, the Jays still have Shea Hillenbrand, Eric Hinske and Corey Koskie on their roster. If Glaus is acquired, he can play 3B, Overbay will play 1B and one of those three will DH. That also means that two of those players will not start every day. Great trade for the Diamondbacks just in ridding themselves of a bad contract. Questionable deal for the Blue Jays pending further moves.

• It also sounds like Kevin Millwood has picked his next pitching destination. He is about to sign a four year, $48 million deal with the Texas Rangers. It is a surprise move on a couple of counts. First, I am surprised, a little, in a top-level free agent pitcher signing with the Rangers. That field is right up there with Coors Field in Denver for hitter's parks. Second, after his agent, Scott Boras, got about the same deal with the Rangers for Chan Ho Park about five years ago, I am surprised that the Rangers would make a similar move. That said, Millwood is far better than Park was. Of course, all that said, if Millwood can keep the ball in the park, something he struggles with two of every three years, he will get plenty of run support and rack up a lot of wins with that offense supporting him.

• I really like Reggie Sanders. As I've mentioned, he just always seems to pick teams that get to the playoffs. If he makes it the next couple of years, I will be surprised. He signed a two year, $10 million deal with the Kansas City Royals. I suppose they could trade him to a playoff contender in July, but he won't get to the playoffs with the Royals! He is a player very similar to the Twins new DH Rondell White. This signing actually makes me feel even better about the White signing by the Twins.

• On the same day, the Royals signed pitcher Joe Mays to a one year, $1 million deal which could jump to $2 million if a number of incentives are met. Is this a good signing for the Royals? Probably not. I don't know if Mays was ever that great. Even in his good season, he got most of his wins against the weak Royals and Tigers lineups. But, if he can return to his form of that season, it isn't a bad signing at all. By that, I mean, if he in fact comes back in his second season after Tommy John, he could be healthy and return to his old sinker-balling form. I still don't think he would be great, but he would be well worth the deal. And, if I'm being sentimental in any way, I really wish Mays the best. He seems like a good guy who did work extremely hard to try to come back from surgery, pushing himself too quickly even. I hope he does a great job... except against the Twins!

• And, if we're going to talk about deals that probably scare absolutely nobody in the AL Central, the Indians signed right-handed starter Jason Johnson to a deal.

So there we go. All caught up on the moves, or near moves, that happened. I feel much better now!  

In the category of Top Blogs, worth reading every day. Today, I am going to encourage you to go to the writings of none other than Stick & Ball Guy. Last week, SBG penned (typed) an article on an event that happened just five years ago yet it is a story worth reading and hopefully taking some time to think about. Hopefully it will make a few people stop. But I can't just mention that story. He aired his grievances the following day on things that really, really upset him! And finally, he has now started a new blog on which he discusses his political views. It is called Founded on Dissent.

NFL "EXPERT" PICKS

Well, I was horrible in Week 16. But overall, our panelists had a rough one! Just one more week to go and it appears that Trevor Born, aka The Twins Junkie, may have locked up the championship. Our Week 16 winner was Aaron Gleeman with a record of 12-4. I am posting this as the Patriots have a two touchdown lead with just under 14 minutes remaining in the game, but I am making the assumption that they will hold that lead and all 12 of our panelists will get that game right. Here are our up-to-date standings heading into the final weekend of games:

OK, with that, I am going to get some sleep. But again, be sure to check back from time to time throughout the week to see if anything new is posted. Feel free to e-mail me, or also take advantage of the Comments section by voicing your opinion or starting debate there. Thanks and have a great week!

Tuesday at Lunch

There were a few interesting stories this morning that are worth discussing:

Jeff Reardon Arrested

The former Twins closer, who is currently 6th all-time in Saves, was arrested on Monday afternoon for burglary. Things like this are always interesting to me. Obviously he made plenty of money in his baseball career. According to Baseball Reference, he made over $11 million. Also, he played in more than ten years in the big leagues, so he also gets a pension from Major League Baseball. Why would a guy like that risk everything, especially his reputation, for a measly $170!? He is blaming some medication he is taking for depression. Apparently he has been on anti-depressants since his son's death in February of 2004.

HALL TALK

ESPN.com and the Providence (RI) Journal writer Sean McAdam wrote an article saying that for the first time, he will vote for Jim Rice. He hasn't for 11 years, so see why he changed his mind. It's funny because FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal wrote about the same thing recently. He hasn't voted for Rice in previous years, but this year, he decided that he will vote for him as well. Thankfully, Rosenthal also wrote about others that he voted for, and his list did include Bert Blyleven. I guess, to me, there is something to be said about 'righting a wrong' and voting for guys that deserve to be in. To me, it is just unfortunate that these writers changed their minds this year on Rice only in the perspective that he has done nothing to better his odds in his retirement years. It is sad that it takes a new class without an obvious Hall of Famer in it for people to look at these other guys again.

BIG TRADE RUMOR

Paul Ladewsky of The Daily Southtown, a Chicago area paper that has been mentioned (negatively) here before, wrote an article on what would be a huge three-team trade if it ever did go through. Here is the rumor:

Mark Prior and Barry Zito to the Baltimore Orioles

Erik Bedard to the Oakland A's

Miguel Tejada to the Chicago Cubs

There are some big names in that deal! I don't see it happening. If it does, it really is a good deal for all three teams. Zito hasn't been great since his Cy Young year a few years ago. Prior, for as much talent and ability as he 'should' have, has not pitched enough and is risky enough that the Cubs should not completely discount trading him. The O's would be getting two very solid pitchers potentially. The Cubs would be getting arguably the top shortstop in baseball, and the A's would be replacing Zito with a younger, cheaper, equally-talented version of himself in Bedard. This one might be worth following, but its likelihood is still not great!

Any thoughts, feel free to e-mail me or leave some comments!

Tuesday Early Evening

Hello again! If you head over to The Baseball Analysts, Bryan wrote an article further breaking down the Troy Glaus deal to the Blue Jays. He looked at deals the could happen in the near future as a result. As I mentioned earlier, the Jays now have an excess at 3B and in the corner infield. Here is what Byan thinks in terms of the Twins:

For Toronto, Glaus leaves a logjam at DH between Corey Koskie, Eric Hinske and Shea Hillenbrand. The latter is likely on his way out, as I expect trade talks between the Twins and Jays to resume shortly. Expect Toronto to come out asking for Jesse Crain, and in the end, be left with something resembling Kyle Lohse and a prospect.

Would we be happy with Hillenbrand? Well, certainly he is a huge improvement over Tony Batista or likely Michael Cuddyer. The problem with him is probably his substantial contract. I have not been a fan of bringing back Corey Koskie. BUT, what if the Blue Jays were willing to return him to the Twins for a low-level prospect AND $6 million. Would it be worth bringing Koskie back to play 3B, pushing Batista into a part-time role? Just a thought. What do you think?  

CENSORSHIP

When I was home for Christmas, I was reading the local newspaper. Its lead article was about the school's library taking books out of the library. The book in question was Hoop Dreams. You know it as a documentary, but a book was also written. Of course, you know that it has profanity and violence and discusses gangs and other things that many times we want to hide children from. However, Hoop Dreams is such a great movie (and I assume book too) for reasons that well supersede these issues. In fact, what it does is shows the reality of drug usage in the inner city. For kids at impressionable ages, I think that reading about real situations like those of Arthur Agee and William Gates and their family members could help deter such activity. Anyway, I am not going to get too long-winded on this topic even though I believe that it is ridiculous that the book would be censored. What I would like to do is encourage everyone to head over to BrentNet. Brent who is also from my hometown and still lives there wrote a letter to the editor in regard to this censorship issue. Read it here and be sure to comment.

TONY DUNGY

It was good to see so many people in football show up in support of Tony Dungy and his wife Lauren at the funeral of his son. If ever there was a good man, it is Tony Dungy. You have to feel so awful for he and his family. His son's death really puts the NFL season into perspective. Can you even imagine the emotions flowing through the Colts locker room? That perfect season seems pretty unimportant now, huh? I was incredibly impressed with Mr. Dungy. Here is the video of the speech he gave today talking about his son and how his family is doing.

TWINS SIGN REYES

The Twins finalized a deal with left-hander Dennys Reyes on a minor league contract. If... ok, when... he makes the major league squad out of training camp, he will make $550,000. He will basically be an option to replace JC Romero in the bullpen. Totally not a huge signing, yet for a team, it is an important pick up. If you're obsessive about the Twins, like me, you will remember a September game in 2004 against the Royals where Reyes gave up a game-winning homer to Terry Tiffee in the bottom of the 9th. Click here for the pictures! You'll also see pictures of Jason Kubel's first major league hit.

• According to On Deck Baseball, the Twins new 3B Tony Batista has begun playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic right before Christmas.

• Do you want to read some pessimism about the 2006 Twins? Click here, to an article by Gary Giombetti in the Hibbing Daily Tribune. It may be the worst piece of journalism I have ever read (and I mean that with the utmost respect). There are multiple facts in here that are completely wrong. First, he didn't even know who Luis Castillo was which should have automatically made me stop reading. Then he was talking about how Tony Batista has been playing in Japan the last couple of years. Then he was talking about all the names that the Twins were rumored to be getting including "Hank Blaylock and Doug Moench from the Rangers"? First, it's Blalock and Mench, and Mench's first name is KEVIN. Then he whines about how the Rangers traded Alfonso Soriano for 'pittance'. Let's just say, there are probably more teams in baseball that would like to have Brad Wilkerson on their roster than Soriano. They also got Termell Sledge who has since been dealt for Adam Eaton. What else? Oh, he said the Winter Meetings were held in Houston. Nope, they were in Dallas. Anyway, there are probably more errors, but why pick on the guy. I just thought you would enjoy reading one of the worst Twins articles I have ever read.

• Kevin Slowey's younger brother Pat recently signed a letter of intent to follow his brother's footsteps to Winthrop University to pitch. 

WEDNESDAY, LATE AFTERNOON

Are you looking for a list of the Top 10 Twins Moments of 2005? I know I enjoy lists because they are a strong basis for further discussion whether you agree with all the choices or would alter their order. Be sure to stop by Stick & Ball Guy today for his list of the Top 10 Twins Moments of the year. How many of the moments include Johan Santana? How about Torii Hunter?  Luis Rivas? Check it out and be sure to leave a comment or an e-mail for SBG!

TWINS GRADES

Last week, Twins beat writer for the Star-Tribune Joe Christenson wrote an article grading the Twins offseason moves. Have the Twins an B+ for the trade for Luis Castillo, a C for the Rondell White signing and a D+ for the signing of Tony Batista. Over at Twinkie Town, 'cmathewson' posted a link to the article and then gave his own grades for the three moves. He gave Castillo an A-, White a B- and Batista a C+. There are additional comments on the subject there to peruse, but here are my takes:

Luis Castillo - The Twins took advantage of the Marlins fire-sale. No, Castillo doesn't have any power, but he provides the Twins a couple of things that they needed badly. First, he is a huge improvement over anything they threw at 2B in 2005. Second, the Twins didn't have any power hitting last year, but they also did not have guys at the top of the order who got on base. That is a need, and the Twins did well to address it. Travis Bowyer will get a chance to close for the Marlins in 2006 and Scott Tyler needed a new team to give himself a better chance of advancement. I would give the Twins and Terry Ryan an A for this deal.

Tony Batista - The Twins do need power. Batista does provide power in that he may hit 30 homers if he gets 550 plate appearances. However, he does little else to help a team. His defense is suspect. His work ethic has been questions. His team in Japan all but released him even after a power hitting season. He won't walk. He just gets out all of the time, it seems. Michael Cuddyer is a better 3B option for the team than Batista. But at just $1.25 million, if he hits 30 homers, that isn't terrible. So, I am going to give this deal a D+ as well. The financial terms of the deal make it alright.

Rondell White - yes, he is an injury risk. No, he won't hit 30 homers. However, he is four or five years younger and will cost the Twins about half of the amount that the equally injury prone Frank Thomas would have received. As I have said, I think I still would prefer Mike Piazza, but only slightly after looking again at White's numbers. White should not play any outfield, which is a good thing, and he does sound very interested in this full-time DH role. We hear over and over again what a wonderful teammate he is, what a great influence he is on younger players. Also, although he is not a prototypical cleanup hitter, he will likely keep both Torii Hunter and Tony Batista out of that spot, which is an added bonus. I am probably a little optimistic, but I think as a DH, he can play in 140 or so games, so I will give this signing a B+.

Any thoughts? E-mail me, or leave comments.

WEDNESDAY EVENING

Think Scott Boras didn't take notice of White Sox pitcher Jon Garland's contract yesterday? Garland signed a three year, $29 million contract to stick with the South Siders. He will receive $7 million in 2006, $10 million in 2007 and $12 million in 2008. Not bad coin. Boras, you remember, is the agent for the Twins' Kyle Lohse. Let's quickly compare the career numbers of Lohse and Garland:

Garland    64-61, 4.42 ERA, 1,009 IP, 375/551 BB/K, 1.38 WHIP, 105 ERA+

Lohse       49-52, 4.72 ERA, 844.7 IP, 264/515 BB/K, 1.43 WHIP, 96 ERA+

Now, clearly Garland is a notch ahead of Lohse. However, Garland went 18-10 with a 3.50 ERA in 2005. Coming into that season, he was just 46-51 with a 4.68 ERA and really was thought of much like Lohse is by fans. A guy with a ton of talent who just hadn't put it all together. In other words, I think that Lohse is where Garland was one year ago. If he has a big 2006 season, as Garland did in 2005, Lohse could be looking at a similar contract after next season. Maybe if the Twins brass is certain that Lohse can put up those types of numbers, they should try to tie up Lohse now to a two or three year deal? Or, if the Twins are out of contention in July, they should be able to market Lohse very well. Actually Lohse is about one year older than Garland, at 27.

My concern with this deal is that it may affect what Lohse is able to ask for in arbitration this month.

Any thoughts? E-mail me, or feel free to leave comments.

MORE BERT Hall Of Fame STUFF

Alan Hoskins wrote an article for the Kansas City Kansas saying that he just does not understand why Bert Blyleven is not in the Hall of Fame. It's really a very good article. Hoskins says that he votes for Blyleven every year.

Jack Wilkinson of the Atlanta Journal-Consitution wrote an article discussing the BertBelongs website as well as Blyleven's Hall of Fame numbers. He has good quotes from Bert as well as former Braves star, Dale Murphy as well.

3,701. That's Blyleven's career strikeout total and a major reason that Jack McCaffrey of The Daily Times will be voting for him. He makes a very strong case in his article for Blyleven, and others that he is voting for.

The writers from The Chicago Sun-Times each wrote a blurb about their Hall of Fame votes. Toni Ginnetti, Joe Goddard, Jay Mariotti and Ron Rapoport each cast a vote for Bert. Mike Kiley and Rick Telander did not! So, work on them! Ha!

Dave Albee of the Marin News, a Bay Area newspaper, comes as close to anyone in explaining why he did not vote for Blyleven. He at least has clearly taken note of Blyleven's incredible accomplishments and statistics. He still uses the phrase about him never being dominant. He also uses his loss total against him. Again, that is something I'll never agree with because of how I feel about the Win-Loss stat which can not be controlled by the pitcher unless he pitches a shutout. (something Blyleven had 60 of in his career). It is a good article by Mr. Albee, and clearly well thought out. However, I believe that the stats that he showed should actually help Blyleven's HOF case, not hinder it.

Gene Collier of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote an, ummm, interesting article on his Hall of Fame vote. I really don't know what to make of it, and I can't tell if it is serious or not. But, it could be funny. Maybe? Of course, he also did NOT vote for Blyleven.

Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News again did not vote for Blyleven, but he did at least explain why this time. Again, the main reasons are the 22 seasons, the 250 losses, the lack of a Cy Young and just two All-Star appearances. Again, not good enough reasons to ignore the Wins and the strikeouts and shutouts and, and, and...

The San Francisco Chrionicle's John Shea did not vote for Blyleven and really did not explain it at all. In fact, he just lumped him in with the others that he did not vote for. Mike Downey of the Chicago Tribune wrote what many undecided voters are thinking. He won't vote for Blyleven, but he admits that he thinks me could.

Even a really bad columnist from a Fargo, ND, newspaper doesn't think he is a Hall of Famer! Not really a good reason either.

John McGrath of the Tacoma News wrote an article in which he described each guy on the Hall ballot. He did vote for Blyleven and wonders why it is taking so long for him to get in! Amen!

Mark Whicker of the Orange Count Register voted for him! So did Terry Pluto of The Mercury News! And Bob Mathews of the Rochester (NY) Democrat and Chronicle!

VERY INTERESTING ARTICLE

I just happened to check The Hardball Times. In Dave Studeman's Ten Things I Didn't Know a Couple Weeks Ago article, he links to an incredibly interesting article on short-time big leaguer Kim Allen's career. It is an interesting look at a guy with incredible walk/K rates and a lot of speed. There are some interesting statistics, but there are also some human elements that take it to a whole new level.

Thursday, December 29th, Evening

Want to know how Joe Mauer is going to perform in 2006? Me too. Of course, we don't know, but over at Roto Authority, they have posted some thoughts followed by projections for Mauer's 2006 season. I find it interesting because it is quite complementary, but I also think that the projections will be (HOPEFULLY) quite low!

The title for this article forced you to read it. The response after actually reading it is a combination or OUCH and Ewww!!!

John Sickels' 2006 Baseball Prospect Book is now available. Click here to check it out. I bought last year's and it is packed with so much information on so many prospects.

SethSpeaks Stats

We as baseball fans are just known for our love of statistics and analysis. I am no different. So, the following may not be interesting to anyone but me, but below I will share some statistics regarding this website and its hit counts over the year.

Monthly hit counts (since June 2003):

June-03     2,294

July-03      1,691

Aug-03     1,701

Sept-03     2,825

Oct-03       2,886

Nov-03     2,747

Dec-03      3,519

Jan-04       4,063

Feb-04      4,036

Mar-04      4,602

Apr-04      6,534

May-04    5,397

June-04     5,667

July-04      5,980

Aug-04      6,370

Sept-04     7,445

Oct-04       7,123

Nov-04     5,398

Dec-04      7,205

Jan-05       6,811

Feb-05      8,737

Mar-05      8,342

Apr-05      7,698

May-05    7,190

Jun-05      7,857

Jul-05       7,517

Aug-05    10,028

Sept-05     7,564

Oct-05      10,269

Nov-05     10,298

Dec-05      12,963

OK, that is probably more than you would want to know. In August, much of the jump was because of the Analysis of a Phenom I did on the Mariners' Felix Hernandez. That individual day there were over 1,700 hits alone. So, let's quickly breakdown how many hits I have had in the two full years since the site started:

In 2004,    69,470

In 2005,  105,438

That is a nice little improvement of about 52% in the last year.

NFL "EXPERT" PICKS

We have come to the final week of the 2005 season. I think I am going to be at the Vikings/Bears game on Sunday afternoon. Sure, it is a meaningless game for both teams, but that's alright. It is still a fun atmosphere. I predict that the Vikings will actually win the game.

Trevor Born has a four-game lead over Cory Hepola, so it would take a major collapse for him not to be our winner. But, you just never know. And, it's still fun to predict just to see how smart we could be. So, with no further ado, here are our final picks of the year: