Friday December 26, 2003
 

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS

MERRY MAILBAG

Merry Day After Christmas to everyone! I hope that you all had a fun, joyous Christmas!

As promised, today will be a mailbag issue, a chance for some of the reader’s to make their points to the masses. Thanks to everyone who took the time to e-mail me their thoughts on a number of my thoughts. That’s part of what I like about having this website; being able to interact via e-mail with a lot of people who are far more knowledgeable than me! As I’ve said before, I appreciate you taking the time to read my thoughts, so now it’s my turn to post your thoughts, to get your name out there along with your thoughts.

Today, we have a few very interesting e-mails that I have selected, so let’s get right to them.

Please take the time to read this piece of e-mail that Al received over at Al's Ramblings.

It is well worth it! Operation Hero Miles

 

VICTORY MAIL

Last Wednesday, I briefly responded to a poster at a Twins forum who thought that there may be some sort of conspiracy between Carl Pohlad and Major League Baseball to keep the Twins down. I wrote:

But what is the main reason that I don’t think there is any conspiracy? Victory Sports One, the Twins-owned television network that started up in October. They are really struggling to get cable companies and satellite TV companies to purchase the rights to their station. Right now, they are giving cable companies the station for free through the Gophers basketball season, and those companies still aren’t taking them up on the offer. Why? Because they are not willing to pick up the $2+ cost per customer to carry the station. Those who are reading this site should really go to their local cable company, or e-mail them, or call them and ensure that you will get Victory Sports before the Twins season starts so you don’t miss any games!

In response to my thoughts on Victory Sports, I got one of the best, most thorough responses I have ever received. It comes from Justin Ahern, a Fargo, ND, native who has a very interesting perspective on this situation. First, he is a huge Twins fan who obviously wants to be able to watch Twins games, but second, he works for a cable company in Fargo. So, I think you will enjoy what he has to write:

I have been intending to send you an email on this topic for quite some time now, but haven't really had a chance.  Now that you are addressing the issue on your website, there is no better time than right now.  I work for the cable company in Fargo.  Unfortunately, I have little to no say on this matter within the company because in our cable system very few programming decisions are made locally.  Our corporate office is in Phoenix and they have the final say on any program changes. The avenue that gets taken for a channel to be added is that our local GM negotiates with a representative from the network to get the best price available.  When he gets the best price he thinks that he can get, he submits a request to the corporate office to get the funding necessary to pay for the network.
 

I am not at liberty to give out too many details, but I can say that the amount of money requested for by Victory Sports will never be received from the company I work for.  Right now they are asking for about 4% of our total annual subscription revenue.  4% may not sound like a large number, but it is.  The reason why they won't get it is because there is no place for the cable company to make that money back.  We have attempted to get local businesses to help sponsor the network in exchange for advertising, but we have found no takers due to the amount of money that they would have to pay to sponsor it.

We have offered to put it on a separate package so that the people who want to watch the channel can pay to watch it and those who don't want to pay won't have to.  Victory Sports has said that they aren't going to allow us to do that.  The reason being that when they sell advertising to the network, they want to have the ability to say that their commercials will be viewed in 42,000 homes in the Fargo-Moorhead area.  If we offer it on a separate tier package, there will only be about 10,000 local subscribers and most of them will only subscribe during the baseball season.

Which brings us to our next stumbling block.  When they launched their network, they didn't count on $2.25 per household watching the Twins.  They were planning on $2.25 per household with cable.  That means that in the Fargo market they MIGHT be willing to allow us to show it on a tier package, but only if they get the same amount of revenue that they would if it were on a basic pay package.  If they get $2.25 per household per month in Fargo the total revenue would be between $1 and $1.1 million per year.  If they get $2.25 per household watching the network, they get about $250K per year.  That is a huge difference.  How do they make up that difference if it is offered on a pay package?  We have to put together this equation:  x times y=$1.1 million

With x being the number of subscribers and y being the price of the channel. The cable company can adjust y, but has little control on x.  The only thing that is for sure is that the higher that y is, the lower that x will be.  We have established that 10,000 people are willing to pay $2.25 per month, but the problem is that if we have 10,000 we will have to charge $9.00 per month to achieve the $1.1 million for the year.  If the y becomes $9 per month, I can assure you that x is going to be lower than 10,000 so y will have to be higher than that.  I don't know what the magic formula is other than the fact that the average baseball fan could get screwed out of watching the Twins games next year unless Victory Sports lowers their asking price.

This is a posting from http://www.victorysports.com/get_victory/index.php

Why haven't agreements been reached with the cable and satellite providers to date?

Some cable and satellite providers have made it clear they want to include Victory Sports One as a separate pay-tier service, while others have not responded at all to our proposal that we sent to them in February 2003. We have proposed, and firmly believe, Victory Sports should be on the expanded basic service, which most cable and satellite customers currently have.

If Victory Sports were on a pay-tier, viewers would have to pay more to watch programming that has always been available on their expanded basic service. Customers would also be responsible for the additional costs of digital set-top boxes required for each television.

At Victory Sports, we are trying to negotiate a fair price to ensure our programming is available to you, as it has always been, on expanded basic cable or satellite. We know the value that regional sports programming holds for fans in the Upper Midwest and that's why we're here.

Basically what this says is that the Twins want to make more money from the broadcasts of their games and says that it isn't supposed to come out of the customer's pockets.  Where is the money supposed to come from? Last year the games were on Fox Sports Net and despite the fact that they no longer carry the games, they still charge the same annual rate for that network.  If Fox Sports Net dropped their annual rate, then that money could be put toward the price of Victory Sports.  That isn't the case.  No business is going to take it lightly when another company attempts to dig into their revenues while offering nothing that wasn't already available in return.

The next part of their website is this:

Will I have to pay an extra fee to my cable or satellite provider for Victory Sports?

The prices charged to cable and satellite providers are determined by your provider. However, Victory Sports is marketing itself to cable and satellite providers as an expanded basic service like ESPN, CNN, Weather Channel, FSN etc. Most of Victory's programming, including Twins baseball and Gopher basketball, has been on expanded basic service since they went on cable and satellite in the early 1990's. The cost of Twins baseball and Gopher basketball is already built into your expanded basic service rate.

Victory Sports believes that its service should be made available to the broader expanded basic subscriber base because Twins and Gopher games are traditionally viewed by 60-70% of the total television audience. This finding is from an independent research study that cable operators themselves conducted.

We will continue to negotiate to keep Twins baseball and Gopher basketball on expanded basic cable and satellite so you will not have to pay additional monthly fees to see the games on a pay tier.

That basically said the same thing as the other question, just in different words.  They are still trying to drive home the same point.

Here is the next question on the site:

My cable/satellite provider believes that sports programming costs are out of control and wants to give its customers a choice in what they pay for. They say all customers shouldn't bear the costs of sports programming. Is this true?

When considering the value of Twins and Gopher Basketball, Victory Sports does not understand how there can be a significant increase in the subscriber rate. Subscribers are already paying for the programming.

In an unrelated story, I went grocery shopping with my wife on Sunday.  Hamburger was $3.49 per pound.  A month ago hamburger was $1.39 per pound.  It's the same hamburger.  Why did this happen?  It happened because there is mad cow disease spreading through cattle in Canada.  American farmers are exporting beef to Canada and other countries because of this causing a shortage of beef.  The shortage has caused the price to go up.  When grocery stores pay more for hamburger, they have to pass that cost on to the customer.  Now back to the cable company.  If the cost for Twins and Gopher basketball games increases by 70%, then the cable company has to pass that cost on to the customer even if the customers were already receiving it before.

Another big problem is that the only people willing to take phone calls from upset fans on the matter is the local cable company.  I have no problem with my co-workers fielding phone calls from fans upset that they can't watch the network.  That is their job.  What I do have a problem with is that fans have no way to contact Victory Sports that I am aware of.  There is nothing posted on the website.  They just tell you to contact your local cable company.  There are two parties involved in the negotiations of the network and only 1 of the parties is getting input from the fans.  They also attempt to demonize the cable company on their site by referencing a report stating that cable companies make money.  All companies make money.  If they didn't they would go out of business.  Cable companies generate a lot more money for the local economy than any professional sports team ever will and they do so without the use of any public funds.

Now don't get me wrong, I want to watch Twins baseball next summer more than anybody.  I am just saying that what has happened here is terrible and isn't getting the ink in the press that it deserves.  I do think that the games will be seen on almost every cable system in the upper Midwest either by Victory lowering its prices or by the games going back to Fox Sports Net.  I really think it's going to happen.  There is just too much to be lost by all parties involved if a deal doesn't get done.  I just don't think that the Twins really thought this through before they tried this.  They seriously misunderstood their market.

So, what do you think of that? Thank you very much, Justin, for taking the time to educate us about this. Twins fans have an understandably biased perspective on whether or not the cable companies should sign up for Victory. I think it is more than fair to look at it from both sides of the table.

So again, please call you cable company or satellite television provider and ask them about getting Victory Sports. But certainly be polite and understand that the people you will be talking to are not the ones making those decisions. Also, go to the Victory Sports website and see if you can find a way to get in contact with them as well.

TERRY RYAN MAIL

Our second piece of mail also is regarding the Twins. I have said numerous times that I really don’t blame Terry Ryan for what has happened with the Twins this offseason. The reason? I think that any blame should be put primarily on the owner, Carl Pohlad and his self-imposed $56 million payroll. My second reason I am not overly concerned, as I have also mentioned plenty of times before, is that I still think the Twins have a pretty strong roster. Sure, the Twins don’t have the completed roster that the Yankees and Red Sox have, but name another team with a pay roll of under $120 million that does.

I’m not worried about the 2004 Twins. Just check out my poem on the Twins called Ode to the 2004 AL Central Winning Minnesota Twins. Maybe that is part of what led to the below response.

Well, I got an e-mail from Mike in Chicago disagreeing with my decision to remain positive when it comes to the 2004 Twins roster. If you’ve been reading this site for some time, you may remember the Discussion Question regarding Terry Ryan that we had back in September. That question was brought upon because of an e-mail by Mike. So, here are his thoughts at this time:

Seth,
Love your blog.  It keeps us Twin fans connected during the long off season.  I've sent you a previous reply on Terry Ryan and his misadventures and find myself once again taking umbrage at your repeated defense of this guy.  First of all, I'm sure any knowledgeable Twins fan has long recognized that in today's current free agent climate, the single biggest obstacle to the Twins' ability to stay competitive has been Pohlad's insistence on retaining an unrealistically tight rein on the team salary.  Pohlad the banker still does not realize that as in any business it takes money to make money.  With a slight increase to about $65 MM in '04 he easily could have kept this team intact and traded from strength; instead, the old repo man looks strictly at how much more he can squeeze out of this investment before either selling or folding. Little does he realize that he is the single biggest cause of fan apathy in Minnesota, not that I excuse the tepid fan support, but only point out that the Minnesota baseball market demands a winner; otherwise, they'd rather be elsewhere. Pohlad's cynical and imperious attitude has surely set back this franchise and the only way for him to restore fan support is to put a small portion of his billions to work by freeing the salary restrictions (to a modest extent) and offering the community viable assistance on a new stadium without putting the whole burden on the taxpayer.  If it's not in his genes to play fair with the public, then he should put forth a legitimate effort to sell the team. Pohlad's continuing cynical manipulation of the team's "player payroll", whereby even though we've shed over $11MM of expected payroll and yet are still told that no money currently exists to add additional payroll, speaks loudly as to the ulterior motives of this man, i.e. continuing to play his shell game with the fans to optimize his profits.

So we agree on the difficulty of maintaining a competitive team under the Pohlad team.. But as the A's, Royals, and, of course, Marlins have shown it is not impossible to build a winner even with the constraints of a small market budget.  All it takes is a keen eye for talent and a willingness to take risks. Her in Chicago, even with the same budget constraints as Ryan, the Sox GM, Kenny Williams, is imaginatively involved in working on three and four team trades with the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Seattle to unload a big salary in Ordonez, get a starting pitcher, a top reliever and top prospect in exchange, and then fill the gap left by Ordonez with a cheaper alternative like Juan Gonzales.  Granted the deal for Rodriguez and Ramirez is now on hold, but I wouldn't bet against Kenny eventually pulling off this or a similar scenario.  He has the vision and the balls to take these chances and even though the Sox fell short in '03(thank goodness!), I would lay my money on a team headed by Kenny Williams then Terry Ryan any day.

Mr. Ryan is one of the nicest people I ever met in going back 50+ years as a Senators/Twins fan, so it grieves me to paint such an unflattering picture, but his track record does not lie. As the analysis of Ryan in one of the recent journals stated, his trading success is a very mixed bag. Certainly, his pickup of Santana in the Rule V draft was a coup, as was the trade for Lohse - maybe, depending on which person we see in '04.   But in looking at his trade record, one is struck by how he is only adept at dumping pretty decent major leaguers for has beens, wanna be's and big question marks.  Look at his trades to dump Tapani, Erickson, Milton, Pierzynski (OK this one makes room for a minor league phenom, but couldn't he get more than one middle reliever?).  Yes, he did trade Kielty for Stewart but that was only after he was forced to do something with a terribly underachieving (or overrated) team.  And he did trade Lawton for Reed, which paid off for one season, but only one.  Other than that can you name one trade that he made that masterially affected the team?   We both know the answer to that.  This is a man profoundly afraid to take a chance. Either that he is so in love with his own prospects that he will not consider moving at least some of them now to get a power hitter or 15 game winner #4 or #5 starter.   Ryan is only comfortable as a bottom feeder, picking up the Henry Blanco's, Mike Fetters, Chris Gomez ,  Tom Prince - none of whom can be expected to influence where the team finishes whatsoever.  Compare this record to Jocketty in St. Louis, who was able to acquire an excellent reliever, the Braves' no. 1 pitching prospect and an underachieving starter who will no doubt get a fresh chance to reach his potential in St. Louis - all for an oft-injured, moderately good player in J.D. Drew.  This trade made me cringe.  Why couldn't TR put together a similar trade with the Braves for Jones, with throwing in one of our esteemed minor league outfielders or pitching prospect?  I can't believe the Braves would have turned down Jones for Drew, but TR doesn't have the imagination or guts to pursue such a deal.  Instead he takes the easy way by giving up Milton for nothing and AJ for almost nothing.  If he knew who he wanted to give up, why couldn't he package them earlier to get some solid major leaguers (wouldn't a real cleanup hitter be a pleasant sight!) rather than dump these two all stars for fringe players.  Think about this one Seth, because it's at the heart of everything wrong with this administration.

Would you like to wager any money that the "gamblin' man" will pick up a proven starter or closer before the season starts.  You know he'll wait until everyone of known value is taken and then bottom feed on what's left.  Of course, the reason they're left is their perceived value is nonexistent except as a fill in on the roster.  We're probably the only team that will wind up with five players on the active roster who are no better than a #25 spot.

Yes, I've read in your columns that this guy is a great judge of talent and that he can spot value where others cannot.  Well isn't it time we let reality intrude into your column and recognize the utter failure of this organization to draft and develop players at the major league level who truly are difference makers.  The Twins do not have one real threat in their lineup and it doesn't look like Cuddyer, Morneau, Restovich, Durbin will be any more than the usual Twin journeymen (read Koskie, Mentikewicz, Guzman, Rivas, Kielty) - players who climb the ladder, fit in well and never do a thing to take the Twins to the next level. To read your hype on Balfour, Nakamura, Crain, and other minor league pitchers is like reading a fairy tale.  Why do you think the Twins' players to be named later or their six year minor league signees are all pitchers.   Because the organization has no one - repeat no one - on the farm who can help at the major league level.  Granted this is my subjective opinion, but I have seen all these highly touted rookies in spring training and watched the box scores and found them with maybe one or two exceptions to be the usual Twin soft throwers who are destined for minor league stardom only.  I can only hope Mauer is equal to his hype because every time I see Mark Prior pitch I just shake my head in disbelief that the Twins let him go.  Do you remember Portland passing on Michael Jordan for Sam Bowie?  And the final burst to Ryan's genius tag as a scout extraordinaire are his #1 draft choice failures that are probably unparalleled in the majors over the last ten years.  Do the names Garbe, Mills, Johnson have a familiar ring?  They should.  They were all high #1 picks who flamed out and will never see the majors.  Whose fault is that?   You must convert some of these high #1 choices when you're a small market team with a losing record to compete year after year with the big market teams.  The fact that Ryan's regime has been a complete bust with the draft, coupled with his risk adverse, gutless positioning in the trade mart, will, I believe, have at least as much effect on the Twin Cities losing this franchise as Pohlad's penury.

You'd be doing the franchise a real service by pointing out these continued failures of the heart and mind, rather than sticking to the one line about how lucky we are that we're in the weak central division so we always have a chance.  I thought the goal was to improve from one year to the next, not hang on and hope our divisional foes don't improve too much.  We already have Sid Hartman as the official team apologist.  Let's try to stir up some change in this moribund organization before they slip back, draw 1.2 million again and cease to exist.  How would you like to have to write about the St. Paul Saints all summer?

Later, I replied to Mike with this:

Hey Mike,

I remember your previous e-mail launched a Discussion Question. I agree with a lot of your points to an extent. I guess big picture, in my mind, is this: It's the offseason. I want it to look like the team is improving. With a stagnant payroll and all of your core players getting raises, they obviously can't all stay. So, at some point, we just have to trust that the Cuddyer's, Morneau's, Ford's, Mauer's, Durbin's and Crain's can do the job. Yeah, they'll make mistakes, but hopefully Gardy will stick with them.

Believe me, I would love to keep the core, the guys I've loved watching since '99 or so. But with the current system, it's not realistic.

I totally agree on the #1 picks though! Those are some great examples. I'm not saying he's perfect, but again, it's the offseason, and the Royals and White Sox are certainly not getting better. In my mind, no one can realistically compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, so let's just take our chances.

You mentioned the A's and Royals and Marlins as examples of teams that have remained very good. I can't argue the A's thing, but we'll see how long that lasts once they lose some of The Big 3, Chavez, etc. I certainly am not a fan of what the Royals are doing. They haven't developed a minor league system. Last year, they traded what they did have for some very average players. This offseason, they've signed average players. At this point, the Royals can only hope to do what the Twins have done the past two years. The Marlins are a good example of the same thing the Twins are trying to do. They're re-signing some players (Castillo, Lowell), and trading others (Lee, Redman), and they actually let rookies like Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis come up and play, even when they struggled.

So, for now, I'm going to choose to remain positive on the Twins. I'm going to try to continue to give Mr. Ryan the benefit of the doubt for the most part (although, I was harsh after the Milton trade! Loved the AJ trade). When the Twins are 10 games out in May or June, then I'll start being more negative!! Ha!

To which Mike replied:

I can see your viewpoint on keeping things positive and realize that giving up on the team is the worse thing we can do in terms of maintaining the franchise in the Twin Cities.  My immediate frustrations with Terry are quite obvious - he lacks imagination and is too afraid of packaging one of his "phenoms" to acquire talent today.  Frankly, the real hope for baseball in Minnesota is for some white knight to come along, buy out Pohlad, and bring in a new breed of front office people. When are the politics and voters in Minnesota going to wake up and vote for a new stadium before Pohlad and company extract every bit of life out of this franchise, thereby making a new stadium a moot point.  This is why I'm so concerned about Ryan's laissez faire policy. The franchise has a very short lease on life and can ill afford a return to the 1990's and yet Terry seems paralyzed at this critical juncture.

Keep the dialogue going!  Maybe we fans can light a fire under this organization, or at least turn the heat up to expose the chicanery of Pohlad and the failings of Ryan.

I really like the last paragraph, and again, that’s the purpose of the Mailbag postings. To keep the dialogue going. To have a forum for you to read other opinions on the Twins. So as always, please feel free to e-mail me anytime.

To what Mike wrote here, I think that if the Twins do not trade Jacque Jones, they need to trade at least one of the following: Michael Cuddyer, Michael Restovich, Lew Ford or Mike Ryan. Clearly, because of Ryan’s inability to figure this situation out, these players have all lost value in the trade market. Cuddyer and Restovich were both very highly thought of the past couple of years but because of their lack of playing time and opportunity, coupled with their increasing age, the Twins can’t expect as much in trade. I think all 4 (or at least 3 of them) could be very good major league players. If it isn’t going to be in Minnesota, I’d like to see them get a chance somewhere.

CELEBRATION MAIL

Regarding my thoughts on the Joe Horn cell phone celebration has already caused plenty of discussion. Here is one more thought on the topic from Tim Lueders:

Seth,

I find it rather amusing that the subject of celebrations keeps coming up. I will tell you up front that I am "old school". Having watched professional sports since the early '60s, or as soon as they were on TV anyway, and playing amateur baseball for a few years and slow-pitch softball for 30 years, I have seen the change from going out and doing your job, to today's showboat style. Professional athletes today are paid outrageous sums of money to put their talents on the field. In other words, owners pay these players to score touchdowns, sack quarterbacks, and hit home runs; that is their job. There are times that a celebration is in order. Play off time in a close game for example. There is no place for showboating in the middle of the season or in lopsided games. Showboating reminds me a lot of "professional wrestling"!!!! At least there we know it is just a show for the fans. I liked the times when Bud Grant would fine and/or bench his players for showboating. He would tell his players that when they scored a touchdown to "act like you've been there before". Showboating has actually caused me to watch fewer professional sports games on TV. 20 years ago, I couldn't imagine not watching the Vikings on Sunday. Today I still am interested in the game, but don't make a special effort to be in front of the TV. The actions of the professional athletes have certainly rubbed off on their amateur counterparts. I see the same thing in our Thursday night men's league softball. Players standing and admiring their 4th homerun of the game, or not bothering to run to 1st base if they don't hit a home run. Come on, give me a break!!

How come we expect our high school age athletes to act dignified and mature, but yet tolerate professional athletes acting like children? Doesn't that sound like a double standard? Professional athletes are certainly role models for a lot of people. I think Kirk Beller said a lot when he talked about respect. Don't you think that society in general is far more tolerant today of poor moral behavior and lack of respect for your fellow human beings? I think that many ills of our society as a whole can be traced back to not respecting the people around you. If the athletes I watch on TV can act like jerks, so can I, right?

There I had my say and feel better for it!

I’m still going to have to agree to disagree, but you to make some good points. I just don’t think it’s as big a deal as it is being made out to be.

BS, I MEAN, BCS MAIL

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS

Aaron Gleeman holds a 3 game lead over Ben Jacobs going into this, the final weekend on the NFL schedule. Be sure to check out theirs, and the other panelists, bios on our FB PICKS page. Here are our picks for this week

Summary:

Buffalo @ New England – Patriots 9-0

Seattle @ San Francisco – 49ers 6-3

Philadelphia @ Washington – Eagles 8-1

Jacksonville @ Atlanta – Falcons 8-1

Cleveland @ Cincinnati – Bengals 9-0

St. Louis @ Detroit – Rams 9-0

Indianapolis @ Houston – Colts 9-0

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee – Titans 8-1

Chicago @ Kansas City – Chiefs 9-0

NY Jets @ Miami – Dolphins 6-3

Dallas @ New Orleans – Cowboys 5-4

Carolina @ NY Giants – Panthers 9-0

Minnesota @ Arizona – Vikings 7-2

Oakland @ San Diego – Chargers 8-1

Denver @ Green Bay – Packers 6-3

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore - Ravens 9-0

Well, that is it for today and this week! I hope you enjoyed the Mailbag entries. As always over the weekend, be sure to check out the Archives page and see if there is anything interesting there. Please feel free to e-mail me at any time and let me know your thoughts, arguments and more. Have a great weekend!

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