Monday,
December 31, 2007
Get to
Know ‘Em:
Mets
Prospects
Late last week, we started
hearing that the Twins and the New York Mets are again discussing a trade for
Johan Santana. I think any Twins fans that really thought that the Mets would
trade Jose Reyes or especially David Wright were a
little bit optimistic. OK, more than a little bit. The Mets wouldn’t do that,
but they certainly are the team that most needs Johan Santana or an ace like
him. From the Twins perspective, trading Santana to a National League team
would mean that they would not have to face him except during interleague play…
or the World Series. From Santana’s perspective, it would allow him to hit.
And, of course, there is that perception of Mets GM Omar Minaya
affinity for signing and acquiring Latino players.
But the reality is simple.
The Mets most need starting pitching. Johan Santana is baseball’s best pitcher.
The Twins are trying to trade Santana. The Mets have several prospects and the
means to give Santana the dollars and years he is looking for. It would seem to
be a good match.
Last week, Jayson Stark wrote:
So, does this mean that the
Twins want Gomez, all three pitching prospects and Fernando Martinez? Who
knows, maybe they are asking for Deolis Guerra, too?
Hey, why not? I mean, ask for the moon and stars too. And yes, that would rip
up the whole Mets system!
Today, I wanted to just take
a little time and familiarize you with the Mets prospects that are being
reported and a few more.
Carlos Gomez – 22
year old OF
In every Santana trade rumor,
the Twins would be acquiring a centerfielder who would become their regular
centerfielder of the future. Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam
Jones and Melky Cabrera are the other examples. In a
potential Mets deals, Gomez is that guy. And “potential” is the key word with
Gomez. He is young and he is talented. He stole 64 bases in 2005 and 41 in
2006. The power is believed to be coming, but to this point, it hasn’t really
arrived yet. In 2005, in A ball, he hit eight homers
and had just 27 extra base hits. In 2006, at AA (at age 20 remember), he had
seven home runs and 39 extra base hits. Lack of home runs doesn’t bother me so
much. Joe Mauer can be incredibly productive without
hitting a lot of home runs. But he hits a lot of doubles and he walks more than
he strikes out. To this point in Gomez’s career, he does not walk a lot and he
strikes out almost three times for every walk.
The truth is that Gomez could
really have used a full season at AAA New Orleans in 2007. He was showing a lot
in his 36 games there, including more walks and steals. But injuries in the
Mets outfield meant that they needed to push him to the big leagues. He showed
plenty of promise, but in reality, it probably slowed his progress. And then in
early July, he had a hand injury and did not return until September.
Carlos Gomez certainly has
the potential to be a 30-30 guy. In reality, he could probably steal upwards of
80 bases if given the opportunity. His speed is tremendous and he could
certainly cover some ground in centerfield. And of course, it is vital to
remember that he will be just 22 years old throughout the 2008 season. He could
contribute to the Twins in 2008, but he could be very good in 2010 in the new
stadium.
Mike Pelfrey – 24 year old right-handed pitcher
Many seem to wonder if Pelfrey will ever become the top of the rotation starter
that was assumed when the Mets took him with the 9th overall pick in
the 2005 draft. Pelfrey’s career at Wichita State was
truly incredible. As a freshman, he went 10-2 with a 2.49 ERA. As a sophomore,
he was 11-2 with a 2.18 ERA. In his junior year, he went 12-3 with a 1.93 ERA.
Of course, Twins fans will point out that one of those losses came in the
Knoxville regional when Kevin Slowey’s Winthrop team
beat Pelfrey and the Shockers.
The 6-7 Pelfrey
was taken 9th in that 2005 draft, but he actually could have gone
higher except he is a Scott Boras client and the Mets ponied
up a $3.5 million signing bonus to go with a four year Major League contract
worth $5.5 million (with incentives that could reach $6.6 million). He signed
in January of 2006 and made his big league debut in July of the same year.
So why the question marks?
Personally, I think that it is ridiculous if some don’t think that Pelfrey will become a very good big league starter. Sure,
in 15 games (13 starts) with the Mets in 2007, he went just 3-8 with a 5.57
ERA. The reality is that the Mets probably rushed him a little bit. Sure, he
dominated Hi-A and AAA in 2006, and he did well in a couple of AAA starts. His
scenario is just like that of the Twins Matt Garza. He pushed from Ft. Myers to
Minnesota in that 2006 season. Like Garza, Pelfrey
had to go back to AAA this year and learn a few things. I think most Twins fans
think that Matt Garza can be at least a #3 starter with the ability to be much
more. There is no reason to believe that Mike Pelfrey
can’t be at least that. He could be an Ace.
Pelfrey is blessed with a fastball that gets as high as 97
mph on a radar gun. He has a very good changeup and a developing curveball.
Philip Humber – 25 year
old right-handed pitcher.
The New York Yankees drafted
Humber in the 29th round out of high school in 2001. He instead
decided to attend Rice University where he combined with Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend to win a National Championship for the
Owls. In his freshman year, he went 11-1
with a 2.78 ERA. He went 11-3 with a 3.30 ERA as a sophomore. His junior year,
he went 13-4 with a 2.37 ERA. His decision to go to college
also paid off when the Mets took him with the 3rd overall pick in the
2004 draft and signed him. Like Pelfrey, Humber got a
nice signing bonus ($3 million) and a four year Major League contract (worth
$5.1 million).
Unlike Pelfrey,
the minor leagues have not been kind to Humber. He signed in January of 2005, and
then he made 14 starts for Hi-A St. Lucie, going just 2-6 with a 4.99 ERA.
People were wondering what was wrong with him. He was promoted to AA, so people
felt better, but he made just one start there before needing to have Tommy John
surgery. So, he missed the rest of that season and half of the 2006 season.
When he came back, he produced. He went 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA at St. Lucie. He
moved up to AA Binghamton and went 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA and struck out more than
one an inning. That earned him a big league call up and he made two relief
appearances. In 2007, he spent the season at AAA where he went 11-9 with a 4.27
ERA which is not bad in that league.
Humber has a fastball that
touches 94, but he is best known for an excellent curveball. He’s also
developing a changeup. His potential is probably that of a very solid #2
pitcher.
Kevin Mulvey – 22 year old right-handed pitcher
Now, Mulvey
is kind of on the opposite end of the spectrum as Humber and Pelfrey. Mulvey did not really
have a distinguished college career at Villanova. His freshman year, he went 7-4 with a 5.29
ERA. As a sophomore, he went 4-4 with a 4.65 ERA. His junior year, he went 3-8
but had a respectable 3.61 ERA. If he
had great strikeout totals, it would make sense when the Mets took him with
their 2nd round pick in 2006. Not only that, but after signing (for
$585,000), he made one GCL start before moving up to AA for three starts.
Now, I have heard him
compared somewhat to the Twins Kevin Slowey because
he of his control. Although Mulvey has decent control, he is not at all comparable to Slowey. In fact, Mulvey has
averaged at least twice as many walks per nine innings as the Twins righty. Mulvey’s fastball hits 91-92. He has a very nice slider and
is working on a changeup and curveball. He has the potential to be a solid
middle of the rotation starter.
At AA Binghamton in 2007, Mulvey went 11-10 with a 3.32 ERA. He then got one start at
AAA and got a win by allowing no runs on just two hits over six innings.
Fernando Martinez –
19 year old outfielder
How is this for expectation?
This is from an article on ESPN Deportes (and translated
over at the Mets Geek) shortly after Martinez signed with the Mets out of
the Dominican Republic in July of 2005 for $1.4 million:
Martinez is a left-handed power hitter
who possesses all five tools necessary to be considered a potential star in the
major leagues.
“Fernando is amazing. He has power, he
makes contact, he has a great arm, speed and he can field. He possesses the
five tools to become a great star,” said Ezequiel
Sepulveda, a scout from the Dodgers who followed Martinez for months.
A scout from the Boston Red Sox said
that Martinez looks like a young Ted Williams.
No pressure.
Most 17 year old baseball
players are between their junior and senior years of high school. The Mets had
Martinez start in Low-A, and he responded by hitting .328/.383/.497 with 14
doubles, two triples and five home runs in just 46 games. So, they moved him up
to Hi-A St. Lucie. In 30 games there, he hit .193/.254/.387 with four doubles,
two triples and five home runs. The Mets sent him to the Arizona Fall League,
the youngest player to ever play there.
The assumption would be that
in 2007, he would at least start the year back with St. Lucie, but instead, the
Mets decided to move him up to Binghamton. In 60 games, he hit .271/.336/.377
with 11 doubles, a triple and four home runs. He was limited because of a hand injury that
ended his season in July.
Despite the signing bonus and
the expectations, I do have to wonder why the Mets are pushing Martinez so
quickly. Has he been overwhelmed at any level because of his age? Not at all. But has he done anything dominant that warrants
this kind of pushing? I don’t see it.
That said, if the Twins can
get him, they absolutely should. Clearly this kid is not only immensely
talented as an all-around baseball player, but he also has a maturity beyond
his years that will help him out.
Deolis Guerra – 18 year old right handed pitcher
You want young, Guerra won’t
turn 19 until April. He was signed for $700,000 out of Venezuela in 2006. The
Mets pushed him right to Lo A in 2006. He made 17 starts and went 6-7 with a
terrific 2.20 ERA. He then made two starts at St. Lucie. In 2007, he was at St.
Lucie. He appeared in 21 games (20 starts) and went 2-6 but had a very
respectable 4.01 ERA.
He has not been a strikeout
pitcher to this point. In 2007, he pitched in 89.1 innings and struck out just
66. But scouts speak of a couple of things. First, he has great poise,
especially for someone his age. He is 6-5 already and just 200 pounds. His
fastball is already reaching 90 mph and he has a lot of room for growth, which
should increase the velocity of his fastball. His best pitch already is his
changeup which also moves a lot. The combination has meant a lot of groundballs
to this point. He gave up just three home runs in 2007. He is also working on a
curveball.
The sky is the limit on
Guerra. Will they continue to push him as they have with Martinez? If so, he
could be a 19 year old pitcher at AA in 2008 which would be pretty incredible. I
think if the Twins were able to acquire him, I think they would be wise to let him
repeat in the Florida State League. Fortunately, the Twins have the depth to
not need to push him and let him develop. But as I said with Martinez, if they
have a chance to get him, they absolutely should.
OTHER
If you take a look at Baseball
America’s Top 10 Mets Prospect list, you will find that:
·
Fernando
Martinez is #1.
·
Deolis Guerra is #2.
·
Carlos
Gomez is #3.
·
Kevin
Mulvey is #4.
·
Philip
Humber is #7.
·
Mike
Pelfrey is not on the list as he has thrown too many
innings to be considered a prospect.
·
Eddie
Kunz ranked #5. He is a right-handed reliever that the Mets took with the 42nd
overall pick in the 2007 draft out of Oregon State. He walked eight and struck
out nine in his debut last summer.
·
Brant
Rustich ranked #6. He was the team’s 2nd
round pick in 2007 after four years at UCLA. He struck out 12 and walked one in
his brief debut out of the bullpen. The Twins drafted him in the 46th
round in 2003.
·
Nathan
Vineyard ranks #9. He is a left-handed pitcher the Mets took with the 47th
overall pick in 2007. He was taken as a high school pitcher.
·
The
2007 draft picks can’t be traded for one year after the draft. So, at this
time, they would not be available to the Twins in any trade. However, they
could be considered as part of the deal as a Player To
Be Named Later. In a trade, the PTBNL has to be determined within six months.
So, if the deal is not formally announced until after January 7th,
these three could technically be involved.
SUMMARY
Who knows? If the Twins and
Mets did reach an agreement, these players mentioned and several others could
be involved. I the Twins are truly
asking for five of the players I have mentioned, they would be ruining the Mets
system. However, we have to keep going back to the reminder that we are talking
about Johan Santana. If the Mets would offer Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey OR Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey
and one other prospect, I think that the Twins would have to consider it. If
that prospect was Deolis Guerra, they would be silly
to say no.
Anyway, the Mets have come
back into the picture. I didn’t know a lot of background about the Mets
prospects, so this was good for me to learn about these guys. There are
certainly a lot of positives to a Mets deal, especially getting Santana out of
the American League. I think that Gomez is close, and Humber and Pelfrey are ready as well. The guys with the biggest
upside, in my mind, are Fernando Martinez and Deolis
Guerra, but they are likely two years away. That said, I don’t think that is a
bad thing at all. A Santana trade should not only get two cogs for the 2008
team, but also give them Twins a couple of key building blocks for the future
as well. Adding a couple more top notch pitching prospects allows more of them
to be traded for other needs.
Any thoughts?
Thanks again for
stopping by this site. Have a great day! If you have any questions, comments or
ideas for future postings, please e-mail
me.