Wednesday December 24, 2003
Twins Top 30 Prospects
First, let me start out by saying Merry Christmas to you and your family! It’s Christmas Eve, so I hope you all will be able to spend some time today with your family. I took the day off from work and will be spending the day with family. So today’s entry will be pretty short, but I have then included a previous post at the bottom of this that ties in with today’s information. Just a reminder that there will be no new post tomorrow (Christmas Day), but there will be a new entry on Friday, and it will be a Mailbag edition. So, if you want to rant on me about anything from the Twins to TV, from the Wolves to the Wild, from Augie Ojeda to Barry Zito, send me your thoughts and see if they get posted. E-mail me.
Baseball America runs their Top 10 Prospects for each major league team every winter. So far, they have completed the lists for just the National League teams. This means that after the holidays, they will begin with the American League teams. I always look forward to seeing how they will rank the Twins minor leaguers.
So here you have a little mini-preview of what you might see in BA. Here are my Top 30 Twins prospects. I want to do this before the Baseball America list comes out to see how close I came. Now, in mid-September, I wrote a posting on the Twins top minor league performers, so I will include that at the bottom of the list in case you want some more details on the players.
For this list, I won’t include anyone who does not classify as a rookie. Last year, Michael Cuddyer was the Twins #2 prospect, but after this season, he has too many at bats to be a rookie in 2004, so he will not be on this list.
Please remember, this is just my list, my opinions. The rank is based on the future, not just their major league productivity in 2004.
#1 - Joe Mauer, C
#2 - Justin Morneau, 1B
#3 - JD Durbin, RHP
#4 - Jesse Crain, RHP
#5 - Grant Balfour, RHP
#6 - Matt Moses, 3B
#7 - Boof Bonser, RHP
#8 - Jason Kubel, OF
#9 - Jason Bartlett, SS
#10 - Francisco Liriano, LHP
#11 - Lew Ford, OF
#12 - Michael Restovich, OF
#13 - Denard Span, OF
#14 - Josh Rabe, OF
#15 - Evan Meek, RHP
#16 - Trent Oeltjen, OF
#17 - Alex Romero, OF
#18 - Alexander Smit, LHP
#19 - Errol Simonitcsch, LHP
#20 - James Tomlin, OF
#21 - Colby Miller, RHP
#22 - Luis Rodriguez, 2B
#23 - Scott Tyler, RHP
#24 - Terry Tiffee, 3B
#25 - Henry Bonilla, RHP
#26 - Christopher Schutt, RHP
#27 - Dusty Gomon, 1B
#28 - Rob Bowen, C
#29 - Nick Punto, IF
#30 - Jim Abbott, RHP
So, there you have it. Seth’s Top 30 Twins Prospects. This list should be fun to look at throughout the next couple of years to see how accurate it is. Last Friday, I reviewed the non-roster spring training invitees for the Twins. One of those players was Luis Rodriguez. Now, I have him further up my list than most ‘scouts’ seem to. I’m not sure why he isn’t considered a prospect. So, I asked Ben Jacobs who writes the Universal Baseball Blog. He lives in Rochester, NY, the home of the Twins AAA Affiliate, so I asked him why Rodriguez isn’t considered a prospect. Here’s his response:
For some reason, even though he's only 23 years old, Luis Rodriguez doesn't seem to be regarded as a prospect at all. At the beginning of last season, the Rochester Red Wings thought of him as a backup middle infielder behind minor league veterans David Lamb and Alex Prieto. He ended up winning the second base job and leading the team with a .295 average while posting a solid .354 OBP, but he showed very little power (1 HR, .376 SLG).
Frontier Field is a tough place for hitters, but that .376 SLG was actually the highest of his career so far, and I don't think he would show much power at all in the majors. Defensively, I get the impression that he's sure-handed (he only made 13 errors in 130 games on a very ragged field), but doesn't have much range.
I haven't seen him play that much, but I don't think he has the potential to be much more than a utility infielder at the major league level. The biggest thing in his favor, in my opinion, is that he's yet to have a season in which he struck out more than he walked. However, his walk rate has dropped significantly as he's moved up from Class A to AA to AAA, which isn't a real good sign.
Be sure now to check below and see the Twins Minor League review that I ran in September.
That is it for today. Merry Christmas to everyone! Enjoy your Christmas Eve. There will be no new entry tomorrow (Christmas Day), but we will return on Friday. I will be doing a Mailbag issue, so if you have anything you would like to rant about from the Twins to the Wolves to the Vikings to my rambling thoughts. Send me an e-mail, and I will put some of them in the entry on Friday! Happy Holidays!
From 9/15/03
Twins Prospects: Mauer… and More
At the end of last week, Twins prospect Joe Mauer was named the 2003 Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year. (If you happen to be a subscriber to the Baseball America site, check this extended Joe Mauer story out.)
But Joe Mauer was certainly not the only bright light in the Twins organization. A number of their big prospects have moved to the major leagues. Others progressed nicely through the system. Others, well, shall we say, struggled. But that’s how it works with prospects; some make it, some don’t. Today, now that the minor league seasons are complete, I’m going to again discuss the Baseball America Top 10 Twins Prospects, as well as some other minor leaguers who may have made a name for themselves with the Twins brass.
#1 - Joe Mauer, C
G
AB
H
BA
OBP
SLG
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
A FTM
62
233
78
0.335
0.395
0.412
13
1
1
44
24
24
3
AA NB
73
276
94
0.341
0.400
0.453
17
1
4
41
25
25
0
The Minnesota native, Mauer appears to be major league-ready already. Just two years after being taken by the Twins first overall in the 2001 draft, Mauer is the best hitting prospect in all of baseball. Look at his offensive numbers, they’re great! But what coaches, teammates, and maybe most importantly GM Terry Ryan and Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, notice is his ability to catch; to call pitches, to intimidate base runners, to handle a pitching staff. Mauer will be headed to the Arizona Fall League in October. Expect Mauer to start the 2004 season at AAA Rochester, but if he continues to progress, he could be in the majors by midseason, forcing the Twins to make a decision on All-Star catcher AJ Pierzynski. If not for AJ, Mauer probably would be in the lineup already!
#2 - Justin Morneau, 1B/DH
G
AB
H
BA
OBP
SLG
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
AA NB
20
79
26
0.329
0.384
0.620
3
1
6
13
7
14
0
AAA Roch
71
265
71
0.268
0.344
0.498
11
1
16
42
28
56
0
Majors
34
90
21
0.233
0.296
0.356
2
0
3
14
8
26
0
The Canadian Morneau lit up Double-A ball before being summoned to the Triple-A International League. When he got to Rochester, Morneau instantly became a star, homering with incredible frequency. In early June, Morneau forced the Twins to call him up with his performance. He came up and had an immediate impact on the Twins. However, he quickly struggled and was not given a chance to make adjustments. After sitting the pine for too long, the Twins finally sent him back to Rochester where he continued to struggle. Morneau was recalled when the rosters expanded for September. Given the chance (which, with Gardy at the helm I wonder if he will be (see here, here or here), Morneau could become one of the league’s special players!
#3 - Michael Cuddyer, OF
G
AB
H
BA
OBP
SLG
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
AAA Roch
53
186
57
0.306
0.381
0.446
17
0
3
34
25
49
5
Majors
28
78
18
0.231
0.310
0.385
0
3
2
5
9
17
1
After being the Twins primary RF last September and into the ALCS, Cuddyer’s “question mark” was his defensive abilities out there. It was believed that all it would take to improve was playing out there in the Metrodome. His hitting has never been an issue. Well, this spring, the Twins left spring training with Cuddyer as their starting RF. He, like the rest of the Twins, was struggling in April, and after starting for a couple weeks, he was benched. After a couple weeks of rarely playing, they finally sent him back down to AAA. He mashed the ball there before pulling his hamstring. He came back from that too quickly and re-injured the hamstring. This time they kept him out for awhile. He finally came back and continued to hit. He was called up to the Twins on August 31, so that he could be on the post-season roster. I still see Michael Cuddyer as a future All-Star caliber player. Will it be as a Twin? Somehow, I doubt it.
#4 - Michael Restovich, OF
G
AB
H
BA
OBP
SLG
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
AAA Roch
119
454
125
0.275
0.346
0.465
34
2
16
72
47
117
10
Majors
19
42
13
0.310
0.442
0.476
3
2
0
3
9
10
0
Michael Restovich actually stalled this season at AAA. He had solid, but unspectacular numbers before he was called up to the Twins in July. He actually was thrown out in RF and started about 10 games in a row and in that time, he his over .300 and his on-base percentage was above .400 while his strikeout rate was actually pretty good. But, that wasn’t good enough for Gardy, so he sat Resto and had the great Scott Ullger work. That’s like the Vikings bringing back John Randle to show Daunte Culpepper how to be a QB! Anyway, Restovich went back to AAA and did well, and on September 1, he was added to the Twins roster. Although I don’t think Restovich’s ceiling is as high as the above three, I think he could be a solid major league outfielder, given the chance.
#5 - Denard Span, OF
G
AB
H
BA
OBP
SLG
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
R-Eliz
50
207
56
0.271
0.355
0.319
5
1
1
18
23
34
14
2002 Twins #1 pick, Span signed late last year and didn’t play at all. This season, they kept him in extended spring training until the Rookie League season started. He played pretty well for Elizabethton, unfortunately shortly into the season, Span had an injury and was out for a few weeks. As you can see by the numbers, Span will not be a power hitter. He is always compared to Kenny Lofton. If he becomes that good, the Twins should be very happy!
#6 - Scott Tyler, RHP
G
GS
IP
H
BB
SO
W
L
ERA
S
A QC
30
20
106.1
93
82
110
6
12
5.50
0
A second-round pick in 2001, Tyler is big and throws hard. Control has been his big problem in the low-minor leagues so far. His strikeout numbers are good, but his walk numbers are alarming. This is not unusual for big pitchers taken out of high school. IF Tyler can harness his control, he could be a good one!
#7 - JD Durbin, RHP
G
GS
IP
H
BB
SO
W
L
ERA
S
A FtM
14
14
87.1
73
22
69
9
2
3.09
0
AA NB
14
14
94.2
102
29
70
6
3
3.14
0
JD Durbin and Joe Mauer combine to be one of the most exciting pitcher/catcher combos in minor league baseball. Since Mauer became a Twin, these players have moved up the system together. Both went to this year’s Futures Game in Chicago. Durbin, who height-wise is reminiscent of Oakland’s Tim Hudson (in other words, not tall), throws gas, frequently clocked up to 98 mph. After Durbin moved up to AA, it took him a couple of starts to get going, but as you can see from his numbers, it didn’t take him long to adjust! I can see JD Durbin vying for the #5 spot in the Twins rotation next spring. He was taken in the 2nd round of the 2000 draft out of high school in Arizona. He will be playing this fall in the Arizona Fall League (with Mauer), and I would guess that he will begin next season at AAA Rochester.
#8 - Jason Kubel, OF
G
AB
H
BA
OBP
SLG
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
A - FtM
116
420
125
0.298
0.361
0.400
20
4
5
82
48
54
4
Unlike Mauer and Durbin, Kubel spent the entire season at Ft. Myers. As you can see, he played quite well. He doesn’t strike out a lot, gets on base. Not a lot of power yet, but that could come. Kubel is just another in a long line of solid outfield prospects in the Twins system. He was the 12th round pick in 2000 out of high school in California.
#9 - Lew Ford, OF
G
AB
H
BA
OBP
SLG
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
AAA Roch
53
211
64
0.303
0.357
0.450
18
2
3
31
10
28
4
Majors
26
55
18
0.327
0.403
0.527
5
0
2
11
7
5
0
Lew Ford is the 5th ranked OF on this list, yet, he has been on the major league roster the longest this year. The reason he ranks this low is because he is already 26 years old. The reason he probably is on this list is because he was named as the Twins minor league player of the year last year. I have mentioned a number of times on this site how much I really like Ford’s approach at the plate. I think he’d be an ideal leadoff hitter. Depending on off-season moves, Ford is probably a 4th outfielder option for the Twins.
#10 - Adam Johnson, RHP
G
GS
IP
H
BB
SO
W
L
ERA
S
AAA Roch
28
17
114.1
128
48
78
6
11
5.35
0
Johnson has progressively gone down on this list. When he was taken 2nd overall in the 2000 draft, he was fast-tracked for the majors. He was in the majors in 2001. After strongly disagreeing with Ron Gardenhire’s decision to start him out at AAA in 2002, he quickly got into the doghouse and has had to work hard to get out of it. Based on his numbers this season, I wonder if he is out of it. He did get called up to the majors for September this year, and has pitched just once.
Now, these are just the ten players that Baseball America chose as the Top 10 Twins Prospects before this season started. I wanted to acknowledge a few other minor leaguer’s in the Twins organization that had great years as well. I will begin with the hitters (in alphabetical order), followed by the pitchers:
Jason Bartlett, SS
G
AB
H
BA
OBP
SLG
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
AA NB
139
548
162
0.296
0.380
0.425
31
8
8
48
58
67
41
The Twins acquired Bartlett from the Padres for Brian Buchanan in 2002. Bartlett had a great year at New Britain this year, putting himself in the “prospect” category. Just look at those numbers; extra-base hits, lots of walks, and 41 stolen bases. Bartlett will also be playing in the Arizona Fall League. AAA Rochester would seem to be in his sites for next season.
Jeff Deardorff, IF
G
AB
H
BA
OBP
SLG
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
AA NB
108
412
130
0.316
0.377
0.517