Thursday,
December 23, 2010
The Waiting Game
In recent
weeks, many Twins fans have become increasingly frustrated with the Twins lack
of movement. In many eyes, the Twins are waiting on Carl Pavano
to decide if he wants to return to the team before moving forward with other
moves. Obviously a commitment to Pavano is not
something to be taken lightly. If the Twins sign him, it’s likely going to eat
up $9-10 million out whatever their payroll will be. That’s a significant
chunk.
However, was
waiting for Pavano the right move? Did waiting for Pavano cost them Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier
or other free agents that they could have spent more time and energy on?
Obviously
none of us know. Only those in the front office know the big picture of the Pavano situation and what effects, if any, have been
related.
But Pavano himself has also been playing a waiting game, and to
be frank, he has lost big time.
At the onset
of the offseason, there was Cliff Lee, Jorge de La Rosa and Carl Pavano. De La Rosa quickly re-signed with the Rockies to a
two year, $21.5 million deal that includes a player option for the third year
at $10.5 million, and then a team option for 2014. Many thought that would set
the market for Pavano. Cliff Lee was in his own
stratosphere in terms of years and dollars, but some thought that Pavano should wait for Lee to sign because the teams that
lost out on the lefty could fall back to Pavano.
Well, since Lee signed with the Phillies, teams have not been knocking down Pavano’s door. Obviously the Yankees won’t go there again.
But surprisingly, the Texas Rangers have expressed little interest. One team
that showed a lot of interest at the winter meetings was the Milwaukee Brewers.
However, they have traded for pitchers Shawn Marcum and then Zack Greinke, so they are likely out of discussion. Rich Harden
has signed. And now Brandon Webb is garnering much more attention than Pavano.
So, as of
right now, the Washington Nationals continue to show interest, but not for more
than one year, and the Twins. There is some belief that the Twins have told Pavano to come to them with the offers that he receives, to
give them the opportunity to match. In reality, I now wonder if Pavano actually even has any other options than to return
to the Twins.
What the
Twins now need to do is be a little more aggressive and give Pavano and his agent a deadline. The Twins need the
situation resolved so that they can move on if necessary.
Pavano and his agent may
have overplayed their hand, and it’s looking more and more like Pavano will no longer get the type of contract that he may
have earlier in the offseason.
Why? Let me
count the ways. First, he does have that Type A status
hanging over him. Teams do not want to give up draft picks. If the Nationals
sign him, they would only lose a 3rd round pick because their first
round pick is protected and their 2nd round pick will go to the
Phillies for signing Jayson Werth. The Tigers may be an
option, but they would have to give up their first round pick. That factor can’t
be minimized. Secondly, Pavano will turn 35 in
January. As much as Pavano’s two consecutive 200+
inning seasons likely earned him a multi-year deal, I can’t blame teams for
being hesitant. He hasn’t been a beacon of health in his career. He isn’t a
strikeout pitcher. He likely will never duplicate, or come close to duplicating
his 2010 numbers again. If teams like the Rangers, Angels, Red Sox and others
are staying away, there are reasons, and I understand that.
I spent
about 20 minutes on Fanatic
Jack’s podcast last night, and I bet Jack a meal sometime that both Scott
Baker and Kevin Slowey would have better 2011 seasons
than Carl Pavanoo. Does that mean that I don’t think
that the Twins should bring back Pavano? Not
necessarily. But do I think they should overspend? Absolutely
not.
The Twins do
have options. At least three of their starting five, without Pavano, should be expected to be significantly better. Liriano has room to improve still. And, if they don’t waste
spend $10 million on Pavano now,
they will be able to 1.) give their internal options
first-shot to earn starting roles, and 2.) have plenty
of money available in June and July to make moves. That is when Bill Smith has
shined. He has made moves the last two years in July and August that have
helped the Twins. I like the idea of giving guys one more chance and then
finding out midseason what the actual needs are. It might not be starting
pitching. It might not even be the bullpen. We don’t know.
Have the
Twins overplayed their cards on Carl Pavano? The
argument certainly could be made. Have Carl Pavano
and his agent played the waiting game too? Absolutely, and it is looking more
and more like a game they are losing.
What do you
think? What is going to happen? Will the Twins sign Pavano,
and if so when, and for how much? And if not, what is the plan? What are the
options?
What do you
think? E-mail me or leave
your comments here.