Thursday,
December 27, 2007
Where Are We Now?
Good morning!
Before we get started, I must wish my sister a very happy birthday!
With that, I
wanted to post something new today, and with Major League Baseball offices
closed through New Years, I thought it would be a good time to ask where the
Twins are right now. Not only that, but what are the situations that they still
need to figure out this offseason, preferably before the start of spring
training in February.
CURRENT STATE
So, as of today,
Thursday, December 27th, this would be the composition of the 2008 Minnesota
Twins, along with some of the positional depth:
Catcher
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Jose Morales
Eli Whiteside
Joe Mauer is obviously the starter. Mike Redmond has been as
good as any backup catcher in baseball during his time with the Twins. The
Twins have a 2009 option on him. Jose Morales takes over the Number 3 catcher
role held by Chris Heintz the last two seasons. The
difference is that if Joe Mauer were to miss time, I
would not be surprised if Morales would get a lot more playing time than Heintz did, and he may even take over as starter with
Redmond remaining the backup. Whiteside is a veteran backstop signed by the
Twins to a minor league contract. Korey Feiner, Kyle Geiger, Jeff Christy and Drew Butera would be the next in line, each of them known much
more for their defense than offense.
First Base
Justin Morneau
Garrett Jones
Brock Peterson
Morneau is the starter and one of the Twins best
hitters. Hopefully he can find a way to hit more homers in the second half.
Garrett Jones has to make the team out of spring training as he is out of
options. If he does, he would be a pinch hitter and get
minimal time at 1B, DH or in the OF. Brock Peterson should move up to
Rochester to play 1B, and if so, he could be ready soon and provide some pop. David
Winfree is likely to spend a little more time in New
Britain, but if healthy, he could jump quickly.
Second Base
Brendan Harris
Nick Punto
Alexi Casilla
Matt Tolbert
As of today, I
believe that Harris would be the starter at 2B. Last year, he was the starting
SS for Tampa Bay and responded by hitting .286/.343/.434 with 35 doubles and 12
homers. He may not have a lot of range for a SS, but that may be ok at 2B. Nick
Punto will make the team because of the ridiculous
contract given to him last year. With Gardy at the
helm, Punto will likely get plenty of time in the
infield. Alexi Casilla advanced from A-Ball to the
big leagues in 2006, so we should not consider his struggles in his first
season at AAA too negatively. He can go back to Rochester and share time
between 2B and SS with Matt Tolbert.
Third Base
Mike Lamb
Brian Buscher
Matt Macri
Howie Clark
I had said that I
would be fine if the Twins went into the season with a platoon of Brian Buscher and Matt Macri. The
signing of Mike Lamb means that the platoon will likely be sharing time in
Rochester. Lamb was really a nice signing, in my opinion. He gets on base and
has plenty of pop in his bat. Howie Clark was the 3B
last year for the Blue Jays that didn’t catch the pop up when A-Rod yelled
behind him. Then he was named in the Mitchell Report. He likely will be with
the Red Wings in 2008.
Shortstop
Adam Everett
Alejandro Machado
Tommy Watkins
Trevor Plouffe
Offensively Adam
Everett is probably the equivalent of Nick Punto in a
decent year. Defensively, he is light years better than Punto.
I am intrigued by the on base percentage and fielding of Alejandro Machado who
the Twins took in the Rule V draft in 2006 only to have him miss the entire
2007 season. Tommy Watkins was a great feel-good story in 2007 and he did well
in his brief time with the Twins. Trevor Plouffe was
pushed again, this time to AA New Britain, and he had a very nice season. Will
they push him to AAA Rochester, and will he take that next step? Can he be the
opening day guy in 2009?
Left Field
Delmon
Young
Jason Kubel
Craig Monroe
The acquisition
of Delmon Young is pretty exciting. His offensive
potential is tremendous, but it would be really nice if he would take an
occasional walk! I would guess that Jason Kubel will
wind up in left or right from time to time. Craig Monroe will get time off the
bench in any of the three outfield spots.
Center Field
Craig Monroe
Jason Pridie
Denard Span
Darnell McDonald
Brandon Roberts
Dustin Martin
Clearly this is a
position that will be upgraded in any potential Johan Santana trade, but again,
we are looking at current state. My thought is that if the season were to start
today, Craig Monroe (who isn’t really a CF) would likely be the CF. If that
were the case, I think that they would keep Jason Pridie
as the 5th outfielder because he can play all three outfield
positions. After spending spring training with the Twins in 2006, Pridie was sent back to Tampa, but in this scenario, I
think he would make the team as Jason Tyner’s replacement. Denard
Span had a very good second half in Rochester, and another half-season there
and he could be ready for the big leagues. If not, Brandon Roberts will likely
only need another half-season with New Britain, where Dustin Martin will also
be.
Right Field
Michael Cuddyer
Garrett Jones
Jon Knott
Doug Deeds
Micheal Cuddyer is a
lock in the outfield and probably in right field (depending on how Young adapts
to LF). If he makes the team, Garrett Jones could see some time here. If not,
former prospect Jon Knott was signed to a minor league deal and will be waiting
in Rochester. Maybe even Doug Deeds will get more of an opportunity with the
Red Wings in 2008.
Designated Hitter
Jason Kubel
Craig Monroe
Brock Peterson
Erik Lis
Jason Kubel now slots in as the primary DH for the Twins, at
least against right-handers. He could handle lefties as well, but Monroe hits
lefties well and will need to play sometimes. Brock Peterson is just about
ready and Erik Lis should begin the season in New
Britain. He is almost a natural DH and could move quickly.
The Starters
Johan Santana
Scott Baker
Francisco Liriano
Kevin Slowey
Boof Bonser
Nick Blackburn
Glen Perkins
Brian Duensing
Anthony Swarzak
Brian Bass
Again, we are
talking about as of today, and that means that Johan Santana is the team’s #1
pitcher (and yes, an Ace). Until anything becomes official, this is the makeup
as we know it. And, when that Santana trade does happen, it is likely that the
Twins will acquire a pitcher who will be in the rotation immediately, their
starting CF and likely two or three more players that could be major
contributors in the coming years. After Santana, there is a lot of talent, a
lot of youth and more than enough upside. Scott Baker pitched well in the
second half and appears safe for a starting role. There is talk that Liriano should be ready for the rotation in May, but I
guess my thought is that if he is good to go in spring training, keep him
starting! Boof Bonser had a
rough second half, but it appears that he is putting his work in this offseason.
He deserves another chance to be in the rotation. I think that there is just
something about Kevin Slowey. He has done everything
he can in the minor leagues and has something that I think will make him
successful in the big leagues. The way he went back down to the minor leagues
and came back really good was a positive. There are plenty of other guys with
the chance of making the rotation at some point. Nick Blackburn had a second
breakout season and reached the majors. Glen Perkins was needed in the bullpen
last year and did well when he was healthy, but if he’s able to start and
provide innings, they need to look into that. There are a lot of comparisons
between Perkins and another lefty, Brian Duensing who
had a great year that ended with him being the starting pitcher when Team USA
beat Cuba in the World Cup championship. Anthony Swarzak
certainly experienced some lows, but after he came back from suspension, he
regained his spot as a top prospect of the team. And, Brian Bass was added to
the 40 man roster after a solid AAA season as a spot starter and a strong start
in Venezuela. And I didn’t even mention the likes of Jeff Manship,
who could fly up the system, or Ryan Mullins, who was good at two levels before
struggling at Rochester. Oswaldo Sosa, Yohan Pino, Kyle Waldrop and Jay Rainville should all be starting at New Britain. And Tyler
Robertson and Alex Burnett have major upside as well.
The Bullpen
Joe Nathan
Pat Neshek
Jesse Crain
Matt Guerrier
Juan Rincon
Glen Perkins
Dennys Reyes
Carmen Cali
Nick Blackburn
Bobby Korecky
Julio DePaula
Jose Mijares
Jason Miller
And, as we keep
hearing, if Johan Santana is traded, Joe Nathan might not be far behind. That
would alter this spot a lot as well. Nathan is as good as any closer. Neshek is as good as any set up man in the game. Matt Guerrier had another great season with a more important
role. Jesse Crain had shoulder surgery and hopefully can come back and be as
good as he has in the past. Speaking of… wouldn’t it be nice if Juan Rincon
came back. I think Glen Perkins should be in the bullpen, and although I wish
the team could get rid of Dennys Reyes, but if they
can’t, he will have a roster spot. The Rochester bullpen should be quite solid
as well, with plenty of depth.
SUMMARY
As of today, the
Twins have what amounts to a pretty solid team. They have a top starter and a
top closer. Their bullpen should be very solid, and the rest of the rotation
has high upside. There is a former MVP and a former batting champ. The team has
a guy that Baseball America named its top prospect in all of baseball just one
year ago and who finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. They
vastly improved at 3B. They stayed about the same at SS, but they should be
improved at 2B.
This is a good
team and a team that could compete in the AL Central if all went perfectly.
More likely, this is a team that is behind the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland
Indians in the division.
What’s Left?
Well, there are a
couple of obvious things that have to still resolve themselves:
1.) This Johan Santana situation needs to end
and preferably soon. I think we all know that a deal with the Yankees involving
Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera and more is probably
what will happen. That is already a solid trade as it fills two holes, but
hopefully the Twins can get another decent prospect or two from the pinstripes.
I know it won’t be popular, but I do think that it is best for the
organization.
2.) I guess the 1b. would
be a potential Joe Nathan trade. It certainly makes sense that the Twins would
deal Nathan for more future stars.
3.) Centerfield is still a need, but one I’m
not at all worried about as it should be resolved through the Santana trade
whether it be Jacoby Ellsbury, Melky
Cabrera or Adam Jones.
4.) Replacement starter and potential future
Ace – Well, although Jon Lester has the chance to be a very good starter, Clay
Buchholz and Phil Hughes are the two guys that I would classify under future “Ace”.
That said, the health of Francisco Liriano
is important in this as well. With as good as he showed he could be in 2006, it
would be hard to not hope that he could return to that form and, if he does,
that is the definition of Ace. Think about it, he threw harder than Santana, he
had a better slider than Santana, and his changeup was very good too.
Really, that is
it. That aren’t a lot of holes. Yes, the first two are
huge things and will involve a lot of hype, criticism, opinion and talk, but
they will likely fill #3 and #4 by those deals. This team is close (even after potentially
dealing Santana and Nathan) and competing for a division title in 2009 or for
sure by 2010 will be well within reach.
So, what do you
think? Am I missing anything? Am I right? Am I wrong? Leave some Comments, or
feel free to e-mail me.
Thanks again for
stopping by this site. Have a great day!