Friday,
December 21, 2007
Silva
Signs in Seattle
Hey everyone,
Sorry there haven’t
been a lot of updates lately. It is that Christmas time of year. Thankfully, we
had the Pat Neshek Q&A up and many great comments
were posted. The fact that Pat was willing to post responses to many of your
questions was an added bonus. To be honest, I just don’t know if there will be
a lot of postings in the new week. Unless there is something that is
newsworthy, and that is certainly possible with the Twins, I will likely take
some time off. But I do want to encourage comments, so even if there are no new
postings, I would like to see the comments filled with questions. But here is
on (former) Twins Note.
SILVA SIGNS WITH SEATTLE
When trying to project the Twins roster on March 23, I said this
about the Twins 5th starter:
“#5 Starter - Carlos Silva - And,
so many are opposed to Ponson being in the rotation,
but many of the decisions surrounding Silva being in the Twins rotation have
been questionable. Coming off a horrible season, the Twins picked up Silva's
option for over $4 million for this year. That means,
he's in the rotation. He has been horrible in spring, giving no reason to
believe he has figured out any way to keep the sinker ball down. I know, spring numbers mean nothing and his contract means he
starts the season in the rotation, but like Ponson,
let's hope the hook comes quick if need be!”
I thought that picking up Silva’s option was dumb. I thought starting the
season with him in the rotation was dumb. He went on to have a very good 2007
by going 13-14 with a 4.19 ERA in 202 innings. Sometimes it is best to just
admit when you’re wrong!
On Thursday, he signed a
free agent contract with the Seattle Mariners that will pay him $48 million
over the next four years. I have already heard the questions asked, “How
can a guy who has gone 24-29 over the last two years get a contract averaging
$12 million a year?” Those are obviously from people who think that Win-Loss
record means something. But Silva still doesn’t walk anyone. He will get a lot
of groundballs. He will be going to a team with a home field that is huge. He
will have a very strong defense behind him. Most importantly, he has been very
durable and is only going to turn 29 in mid-April. Those are some pretty
important characteristics in a free agent pitcher. But as La Velle
tells us, Silva is incredibly passionate about what he does. He appears to
be a funny guy, a fun guy, and an all-around great teammate who will work hard.
Is Carlos Silva worth the contract that he signed? In my opinion he
isn’t. To me, that kind of contract should be going to All-Star caliber
pitchers. To me, Carlos Silva is a solid #3 pitcher who will likely give the
Mariners a league average ERA over about 200 innings for the next four years.
To me, that means something more like a three year, $25-$28 million deal, even
in today’s market. But today’s market is crazy and #3 type of pitchers get
$10-12 million deals. Hey Barry Zito got seven years
and $126 million and he’s no more than a #3 starter. The best thing that Silva
had going for him was that he was probably the best pitcher on the free agent
market, so he was able to get what he wanted. Seattle needs more pitching after
overpaying for Jarrod Washburn and Jeff Weaver a year ago.
And finally, Silva’s name has been mentioned most frequently with
Kyle Lohse as the top two starting pitchers on the
free agent market. So, when Lohse likely signs a
similar deal with some overly desperate for pitching team, don’t be surprised. He
had a bad 2006, and his 2007 was league average at best. He just turned 29
years old this month. The fact that he is a Scott Boras client means he will
likely get paid even extra. But when you see the contract Lohse
gets, got back t o the Silva traits t hat I mentioned a couple of paragraphs
ago, and I don’t think any of them apply to Kyle Lohse.
Had Silva been willing to sign the three year, $18 million deal
that the Twins offered him, that would have been good,
but not great. The Twins will likely be able to get league average starting
pitching (with potential for better) from the likes of Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Brian Bass, Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing,
Nick Blackburn or whichever pitchers they slot in. Those guys would all make
less than $500,000 in 2008. This was a case, like with Torii Hunter, where the
Twins were wise not to enter the same market as the AL West teams that signed
them. That said, I really am happy for Carlos Silva. I
can never blame a guy for getting what he can get.
BONUS THOUGHTS
And who knows… maybe the Silva/Santana relationship would be
strong enough to get Santana to give up his no-trade clause to go to Seattle. A
package of Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Jeff Clement would be more than
enough return to make me happy. They could throw in lefty pitcher Tony Butler
and I would be ecstatic. The M’s would have a rotation of Santana, Felix
Hernandez, Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista and would certainly
be a player in the NL West! Just more to think about!
Adam Jones becomes the Twins new CF and hopefully takes that job
for the next six or more years. He is another guy that I would predict to have
better offensive (and defensive) numbers than Torii Hunter over the next five
years. An outfield of Jones, Delmon Young and Michael
Cuddyer could be incredible! I think that Jones could
be a cornerstone whose upside is far more than Jacoby Ellsbury’s.
Brandon Morrow was the Mariners’ first round pick in 2006 out of
California. He spent all of 2007 in the Mariners bullpen where he gave up 56
hits and 50 walks in 63 innings. So, clearly the walk numbers need to come
down, but he also struck out 66 hitters. Why the Mariners decided to waste a
full year of his pre-arbitration time in the bullpen is baffling to me.
However, it is also important to remember that the M’s selected him ahead of
Tim Lincecum in that draft, so he does have some
serious upside, enough to be a #2 starter, if not an ace.
Jeff Clement was drafted by the Twins in the 12th round
of the 2002, but he went to USC instead. He left his Iowa high school with the
record for most career home runs. He is certainly a power threat, but he can
also just be a good all-around hitter. He is a catcher, although he is far from
great behind the plate. He could be a future DH and third catcher option which
doesn’t sound impressive. But he would definitely be an every day player in the
middle of the lineup.
Thanks again for
stopping by this site. Have a great day! If you have any questions, comments or
ideas for future postings, please e-mail
me.