Monday, December 13, 2004

TWINS THOUGHTS

WINTER MEETING DEAL THOUGHTS

VIKINGS THOUGHTS

NFL WEEK 14 THOUGHTS

WOLVES THOUGHTS

NFL "EXPERT" PICKS

CHRISTMAS IDEAS

WINTER MEETINGS

WEEKEND WRAP-UP

 

Baseball's annual Winter Meetings got underway in Anaheim, California, on Friday and went through the weekend. As of last night, very little definitive had happened yet, but GMs and Agents have been talking around the clock. There are agents talking to teams, trying to find the best deal for their clients. There are GMs talking to other GMs trying to make trades to bolster their rosters.

Congratulations to ESPN's Peter Gammons, who over the weekend was announced as this year's J.G. Taylor Spink Award for outstanding baseball writing. That means that he will be giving a speech as a new inductee into baseball's Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. Gammons is very deserving of this award, and I am actually surprised that he wasn't given the honor years ago! It was funny, I was listening to MLB Radio yesterday and he was being interviewed. Gammons said that the induction ceremony is on the day of baseball's trade deadline. He envisions standing at the podium giving his speech, and his cell phone vibrating, so he answers the phone, and announces a major trade. It was pretty funny!

Anyway, today I wanted to discuss some of the deals that have gone on so far at the Winter Meetings, starting with my thoughts on where some of the Twins players sit with what is going on. I will analyze some of the bigger free agent signings and trades. This morning, the Rule V draft will be taking place, so I will discuss that a little. The we've got some thoughts on the Timberwolves weekend, the Vikings debacle and more NFL Thoughts. And, as always on Mondays, see how our NFL "Expert" Panelists did this week.

As always, if you have any thoughts or comments on anything you read, or if you just want to chat, send me an e-mail. 

TWINS THOUGHTS

Corey Koskie - No real new news on Koskie, although, I am of the opinion that the longer he goes without resigning with the Twins, the less likely that he will be back with the team. He has a 3 year, $16 million option to play in Canada, with the Blue Jays.  My gut feeling is that the Dodgers will just let Adrian Beltre go and that they will replace him with Koskie. It is a good fit for him. He can play on grass, and for a team that will appreciate his approach at the plate.
      Again, I’d love to see Koskie return to the Twins, but I do believe that their offer is fair. I would like to see the team increase their offer to 2 years and $9 million, with the no-trade clause, just as one last effort, but they should not go higher than that.
      The reason I want the Twins to re-sign Koskie is because then we know that Michael Cuddyer would be the Twins 2B, and that Luis Rivas would likely be gone. If the Twins lose Koskie, I would fear that they would move Cuddyer over to 3B (Where he is not as good as he is at 2B, where he was second only to Rivas in WS/1000 last year).

(As of late last night, it appears that Koskie has agreed to a contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.)

Jacque Jones - Another side effect of losing Koskie would be that the team might feel they should keep Jacque Jones. Now, I do have to say that I still like Jacque Jones. I think he had a bad year in 2004, but he still hit 20 homers and drove in 80 runs. If he can move his batting average back to .300 (where it was the previous two seasons), he will again be one of the better OF in baseball. And, there is no questioning his defense.

Rusty Greer - It sounds like the Twins have a hand-shake agreement to sign former Rangers OF Rusty Greer to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. Now, the Twins already have Michael Ryan, Todd Dunwoody and Jason Tyner as potential left-handed pinch hitter/5th outfielder options. However, I think that this could be a good signing, similar to the Jose Offerman signing a year ago, with potential for it to be a bigger deal. Greer is a career .305 hitter who hit .332 and .321 in consecutive season in 1996 and 1997. The man can flat-out hit. However, he has not played the last two seasons because of a series of injuries. Not just your standard injury, but a combination of many injuries from arms to legs to his back. He missed over 100 games in both 2001 and 2002 as well with injuries.
      So, this would be a very minor signing if it does happen. However, Greer was very good, and signing a minor league contract means that there is very little monetary risk involved in attaining his services. If he is healthy and makes the team out of spring training, they sign him for cheap. If he is healthy and hits like he can, it could be a huge acquisition to the Twins.


 BASEBALL’S WINTER MEETINGS THOUGHTS

Just some quick thoughts on some of the deals that went down over the weekend and just prior to the Winter Meetings. This morning is the Rule V draft. Johan Santana has become the poster child for what can happen with the Rule V Draft, although it is very unusual that drafted players really make a big impact, if any at all. It will be interesting to see if the Twins draft anyone. They didn’t last year. More interesting is the fact that they could lose two or three players in the draft. I can definitely see someone drafting OF Kevin West, because I believe that he is ready to hit at the major league level. If a team is willing to be patient, I can also see the Twins losing OF Alex Romero. He isn’t ready yet, but to me, he has such a big upside that he could be worth taking. I think there are also a few relievers that the Twins could lose as well. Some are younger, but I can also see Adam Johnson being selected by a team. He is probably now more ready for a relief job in the big leagues.

Troy Glaus to the Diamondbacks  
Four years and $45 million! I think this contract is absolutely ridiculous for a number of reasons. If Glaus hits 47 homers, like he did in 2000, then this is a very fair contract. If he hits 41 homers, like he did in 2001, it could be justified. If he plays a full season and hits 30 home runs, like in 2002, it starts to seem a little excessive. Now, the biggest concern with Glaus is his health. In 2003, he missed over 60 games. Last year, he missed more than 100 games. He did make a good comeback last year to play toward the end of the year. I fully agreed with the Angels decision to give their 3B job to Dallas McPherson. I just can’t justify giving an eight-digit annual salary for a guy who is so one-dimensional. I also can’t justify giving a four year contract to a guy with major injuries each of the past two seasons. The other reason that I don’t get it is because of Arizona’s financial situation. They borrowed money from MLB when they were winning earlier this decade and also agreed to a lot of deferred contracts too. I just don’t like this contract at all!

Jermaine Dye to the White Sox 
When I read that the White Sox had signed Dustin Hermanson to a two-year contract last week, I noted that it certainly didn’t scare me at all, as a Twins fan. When I saw that the Sox had signed Jermaine Dye to a two-year deal, it actually made me laugh out loud! I love it! First, it almost makes official that Magglio Ordonez won’t be back (which is a good thing for Twins fans). I should point out that Dye is anything but a bad player. He can hit at times. He hit .285 with 15 homers in the first half last year. But he fought injuries and struggled offensively in the second half. So, sure, he’s a good player, but certainly nothing that Twins fans need to worry about.

Russ Ortiz to the Diamondbacks 
The Diamondbacks are having financial problems, huh? Well, how about a 4 year, $34 million contract for Russ Ortiz? Ortiz has a record of 103-60 in his seven year, big league career. He was also 36-16 the last two seasons with the Braves. With that kind of winning percentage, you would think he would be a good pitcher, right? And, he’s not bad, don’t take me wrong, however, he has been the recipient of plenty of run support and the fortune of playing with good teams. Russ Ortiz has been in the Top 5 in the league in walks each of his six full big league seasons. And he isn’t really a strikeout pitcher either. He’s a guy that just finds a way to get people out. His ERA has increased each of his past four seasons to 4.13 last year. His ERA plus has just barely been over the average of 100. Ortiz is just 30, so a four year deal is probably not that bad. He is a winner. However, he has been with the Braves and Giants in his career. The Diamondbacks don’t score runs (even with Glaus, I don’t expect them to score a lot of runs!), so even if Ortiz pitches as well as he has in previous years, he could have a record well under .500.

(Note the "Financially Strapped" Diamondbacks have also agreed to a contract with SS Royce Clayton and IF Craig Counsell.)

Richard Hidalgo to the Rangers 
$5 million for Richard Hidalgo! The Rangers have plenty of offense! They need pitching! Spend money on pitching! Granted, no sane pitcher would want to pitch in Texas, but you could get two adequate pitchers for this $5 million! I just don’t think this is a necessary expenditure!

David Wells to the Red Sox
Here is another deal that doesn’t make a lot of sense. Wells will be 42 years old less than two months into the season, and he’ll get a two year deal with incentives that could bring the value to almost $20 million. That is essentially the same contract as Brad Radke, except Radke is a dozen years younger. That said, Wells has pitched in 31 games each of the past three seasons. Last year, his ERA was 3.73. He has a lot of talent and is a savvy veteran. This could be a great pickup if he can make all of his starts. He also seems to fit in well with that Red Sox clubhouse.

Steve Finley to the Angels 
The Angels essentially pulled out of the Carlos Beltran Sweepstakes in signing Finley to a two year deal. Yes, Finley will be 39 years old before the end of the season, but he has shown no signs of slowing down. Last year, he hit 36 homers. He no longer steals a lot of bases. What Finley does is allows Garrett Anderson to move back to left field. Finley is a great, Gold Glove centerfielder and should really help the Angels. I like this move.

Carl Pavano to the Yankees 
Well, Carl Pavano talked to a lot of teams and visited a lot of cities in his attempt to determine where he wanted to spend the next few years of his career. But, when it came down to it, Pavano wanted to win, and because of that, he chose the New York Yankees. Now, this deal is not official, but it is believed that he will get a four year deal in the neighborhood of $39 million. If that is what he signs for, the Yankees are making a great deal! Pavano picked a perfect time to have his bust-out season! Last year in Florida, he was 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA. He will be just 28 years old next season. Assuming that he can handle New York (which is always a question), I believe Pavano will be really good and at this price (relative to the other pitcher’s signings this year), it is a very fair salary. On a side note, it appears that Jaret Wright did not pass his physical with the Yankees. They could still sign him, but they will likely make a stronger play for Eric Milton now.

Matt Lawton to the Pirates for Arthur Rhodes 
Matt Lawton really has been taking a hit from the media over this trade, saying that he was a disappointment. Sure, he didn’t put up big numbers in 2003 with Cleveland, but he was injured most of the year. Last year, he played in 150 games and did well all-around. He hit .277/.366/.421 with 25 doubles, 20 homers, 70 RBI and 23 stolen bases. That is a decent, well-rounded season. He could do well in Pittsburgh as well. Rhodes was very unfairly criticized last year! He was given the A’s closer job last year after years of being a great left-handed set up man. Well, even the A’s realized how important having a closer is last year after they gave up on Rhodes in that role. He has not been great in recent years, but in Cleveland, he will return to the set up role in front of Bob Wickman, and I think he could flourish again.

Danny Kolb traded to the Braves for Jose Capellan and Dan Meyer 
      If you’re a Braves fan, you may not want to read my thoughts on this trade; you may want to just skip to the next entry!! This is an absolutely horrible trade for the Braves. Yes, Danny Kolb has been very good for the Brewers that last two seasons. He was an All-Star last year and saved 39 games in 44 chances. He gets a lot of ground balls because of his 95 mph sinker ball, but he doesn’t get many strikeouts. Getting Kolb is not a bad thing for the Braves. That is not the part of this deal that bothers me.
      He will take over as the Braves closer next year as this move also allows John Smoltz to return to the starting rotation. That is the second worst part of this trade. I just don’t get it. I do understand that you want your best pitchers pitching the most innings, not just an inning here and there. That is why many people want the Twins to put Grant Balfour or Jesse Crain into the starting rotation rather than leave them where they have had success. However, this is a different case. I know Smoltz wants to be a starter, but he has had so many arm (shoulder and elbow) problems in his career. Is he over them? I don’t know. Even as a closer the last three seasons, he has had to take time away to allow rest to his arm. Smoltz returning to the starting rotation is bad on so many levels to me. He was so dominant as a closer, a closer who could pitch two innings. He is also now 37 years old. Can he pitch 200 innings? I don’t think so. I can see the scenario where he will start out on fire for a couple of months, and then he could be done for the season with arm problems. But that isn’t the worst part of the deal either.
      The Braves get Kolb, a guy who will likely throw about 50 innings, and do well, next year for the Braves. However, to get Kolb, they gave up WAY too much! The Braves sent top pitching prospect Jose Capellan to the Brewers. Now, as we know, not all pitching prospects turn out, but you don’t just trade a guy who throws 100 mph and can maintain a mid-90s fastball late into games for a reliever. Capellan has it all. He’s 23 years old, 6-4, 235 pounds and throws hard! He started this season in High-A Myrtle Beach. He was 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and he struck out 62 batters in 46.1 innings. He moved up to AA Greenville, where he was also 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 50.1 innings. That warranted a move to AAA Richmond where he was 4-2 with a 2.41 ERA, with 37 strikeouts in 43 innings. He was finally called up to the Braves, where he appeared in three games in September. It is very likely that the Braves would have had Capellan in their starting rotation in 2005. Now instead, they have the question marks and injury-risks surrounding Smoltz as a starter.
      To make matters worse, the Braves are throwing in a Player to be Named Later. It is believed that Dan Meyer is that player. Meyer is a left-handed pitcher who was the team’s first-round draft pick in 2002. He started 2004 in Greenville where he was 6-3 with a 2.22 ERA. He had 86 strikeouts in 65 innings. He moved up to Richmond where he went 3-3 with a 2.79 ERA. He struck out 60 in 61.1 innings. In other words, he is pretty good too! He pitched two scoreless relief innings for the Braves in September as well.
      So, to summarize, the Braves gave up two really good starting pitching prospects (read - combined $600,000 and maybe 400 innings a year for years to come) to acquire Danny Kolb, an All-Star closer with two good major league seasons (who will likely cost about $3 million in 2005), meaning they can make John Smoltz happy by moving him back into the starting rotation (Uggh!). I just don’t get this trade at all!

Tim Hudson to the Dodgers for Edwin Jackson and Antonio Perez 

This trade has been rumored for the last 48 hours. It hasn't happened yet, but I would suspect that it will. I mean, we all know how Billy Beane likes to trade with his former assistants JP Ricciardi and now Paul DePodesta. The A's are looking to unload one of their Big 3 and it is becoming more and more apparent that it will be Hudson. The A's want a major-league ready second baseman and some pitching. Well, Antonio Perez is definitely ready and with the Dodgers signing Jeff Kent, he and Alex Cora are available. Jackson is still just 21 years old and despite an injury-riddled 2004, still has big-time potential! Jackson has the potential to be every bit as good as Jose Capellan. So why am I OK with the Dodgers trading Jackson? The difference is that the Dodgers will be getting one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in return.

 

What do you think of these deals? Any other rumors you would like to discuss? Do you love the Hot Stove League as much as I do? E-mail me.

VIKINGS THOUGHTS

Vikings 23, Seahawks 27
      It is one of those situations where you have to wonder what they were thinking. Things were going so well on the drive. Onterrio Smith was getting five to eight yards with every carry. Daunte Culpepper was using all of his weapons to move the team down the field and into position to score the go-ahead touchdown. But then, inside the 20, the call was made to give the ball the Randy Moss on a reverse. But it was a run-pass option. Moss decided to pass (because had he run, it would have been a loss of yards), thinking that Marcus Robinson was open. Unfortunately, Michael Boulware wasn’t surprised and he moved right in front of Robinson for the game-ending interception. Blame can go to Moss for throwing it, certainly he should have taken the loss or thrown the ball away. But he’s not a QB and made a quick decision that proved to be a bad one. Others can be blamed too. But whoever decided to quit doing what was working, whether that was offensive coordinator Scott Linehan or head coach Mike Tice, that is the person who should take the blame! Again, they were moving the ball well. They didn’t need to do anything fancy. There was plenty of time left in the game, no need to panic.
      Before that, it was really just a good football game between two very average football teams. The Vikings jumped out to a 10-0 first quarter lead before the Seahawks came back and took the lead. The scoring went back and forth the rest of the game. As far as entertainment, it was a competitive game, just, the wrong team won.
      The Vikings offense moved the ball well most of the game. Daunte Culpepper continued to be efficient, connecting on 21 of 33 passes for 270 yards and a touchdown (no turnovers). Onterrio Smith carried 14 times for 56 yards. Even Michael Bennett averaged 5 yards a carry on his five carries. Randy Moss was closer to 100%. He had four catches for 104 yards and a touchdown. He showed in the open field that he still doesn’t have the ability to shift into that gear that only he has, but he played great.
      The Vikings defense gave up a lot of yards again, but they also had their moments. Brian Williams and Brian Russell each had an interception at key times. There were some big sacks. There were just too many times when a wide receiver was left completely free to roam. Matt Hasselbeck hit those guys and they ran free. Hasselbeck went 23-34 for 334 yards and three touchdowns. After a slow first half, Shawn Alexander ended the day with 27 carries for 112 yards. Darrell Jackson was the story though. He got to the Cities Saturday after visiting his sick father. Yesterday morning, before the game, he found out that his father had passed away from cancer. Jackson played and had his best game of the year. He had 10 catches for 135 yards and a touchdown. That is pretty impressive, even if he plays for the wrong team!
      So, the Vikings have now lost five of their last seven games and are 7-6. When Ryan Longwell kicked yet another game-winning field goal to give the Packers a 16-13 win over the Lions, it also gave the Packers sole possession atop the NFC North. If the playoffs were to start today, the Vikings would be the 5th seed in the NFC. With three games remaining, they need to start winning though. Next Sunday, they head to Detroit to take on the Lions. Then on Christmas Eve, they host the Packers in a huge game! They will then end the season the following weekend at Washington.

      Oh, and Mike Tice commented on being interested in taking over as the head coach at the University of Washington. Many wonder why he would consider the college ranks a better option for him than the Vikings coaching job. Well, this is certain, he will make a LOT more money in college. Red McCombs is very cheap with his coach. Tice makes about $400,000 a season to coach the Vikings. To put that into perspective, Gophers coach Glen Mason makes about a million a year. Unfortunately for Tice, Washington announced that they will be hiring former Notre Dame coach Tyrone Willingham. But Tice should consider a move for that kind of money. I can't believe that he's getting paid so little in the NFL!
      So, what do you think about the Vikings? Are they done? Can they improve? What’s up with them? E-mail me.


NFL WEEK 14 THOUGHTS
I guess there were fifteen other NFL games yesterday too, so here are just some random thoughts that I noticed.

Any thoughts on the NFL season? E-mail me.


 WOLVES THOUGHTS
 

As I have mentioned before, the Minnesota Timberwolves will make the playoffs. There is no question about that at all. They will be no lower than the #4 seed. So, for all intents and purposes, the regular season is really just for positioning and to get players ready for the playoffs. Oh, and for entertainment purposes for the fans, of course.
But in getting to that point, there will likely be a number of ups and downs throughout the regular season, and this weekend was a perfect example of that. On Friday night, the Sacramento Kings came into Target Center and the Wolves were ready for them getting a big win. The next night, the Wolves traveled to Chicago and lost to the really bad, or at least really young, Chicago Bulls team. Here’s a look at the games.

Friday night - Wolves 113, Kings 105
Kevin Garnett is so good, and what he has done better over the past two seasons has come up big in the biggest games. Friday night, in 44 minutes against the Kings, KG scored 35 points, grabbed 18 rebounds, dished out nine assists and added four steals. I would say that is a pretty MVP-like performance!
Eddie Griffin scored 18 points in 27 minutes. Sam Cassell added 15. Fred Hoiberg had 11, and Wally Szczerbiak chipped in 10. Chris Webber had a solid 25 point, 7 rebound, 7 assists game. Mike Bibby had 21 points and 7 assists. Bobby Jackson had 19 and Brad Miller had 18.

Saturday night - Wolves 88, Bulls 99
And on yet another back-to-back, home-then-away set of games, the Wolves just didn’t come to play against the Bulls. Chicago’s rookie Ben Gordon (out of U Conn) led the Bulls with 31 points in 31 minutes. Former Kansas star Kirk Hinrich had 19 points, 12 assists and 8 rebounds in the game. The Wolves just didn’t shoot well at all. Garnett scored 16 points while grabbing 21 rebounds. Sam Cassell added 17 points and 8 assists. Eddie Griffin had 14 points while Wally Szczerbiak and Troy Hudson added 10 points.

The Wolves are now 13-7 on the season. That puts them 3 ½ games behind the Seattle Supersonics in the Northwest Division. The Sonics don’t appear to be slowing down either! The Wolves are ½ game ahead of the Denver Nuggets.

The Wolves now have another home-then-away, back-to-back scenario starting Tuesday. The Wolves will host the Portland Trailblazers on Tuesday night and then will head east, through Customs and take on Sam Mitchell’s Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night.

Any thoughts or comments on the Timberwolves? E-mail me.
 

NFL "EXPERT" PICKS

We have our Week 14 winner figured out already. With just one wrong through yesterday's games, Ryan Maus of Twins Chatter will win this week's "expert" picks. Both Ben Jacobs and Jeremy Kovash have two wrong, but they, like Ryan, picked the Chiefs to win tonight, so they won't be able to catch him. Tomorrow, we will update the standings to see how this week's results will affect the crowd on top of the list.

Seth Stohs Melissa Olson Ben Jacobs Aaron Gleeman John Bonnes Ryan Maus
SethSpeaks.net SethSpeaks.net Hardball Times Aaron's BB Blog Twins Geek Twins Chatter
Oakland @ Atlanta Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons
Seattle @ Minnesota Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings
Cincinnati @ New England Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Chicago @ Jacksonville Jaguars Bears Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
NY Giants @ Baltimore Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Indianapolis @ Houston Colts Colts Colts Colts Texans Colts
Cleveland @ Buffalo Bills Bills Bills Bills Bills Bills
New Orleans @ Dallas Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Saints
Detroit @ Green Bay Packers Packers Packers Packers Packers Packers
NY Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
Miami @ Denver Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos
San Francisco @ Arizona Cardinals Cardinals 49ers Cardinals Cardinals 49ers
Tampa Bay @ San Diego Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers Chargers
St. Louis @ Carolina Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers
Philadelphia @ Washington Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles
Kansas City @ Tennessee Titans Chiefs Chiefs Titans Titans Chiefs
           
Michael Labuda David Bergner David Bloom Vic Quick Mike Brasel Jeremy Kovash
ChiSox Daily Baseball Savant Ya Gotta Believe KDUH-Sports FFB Guru Wolf Lake Mgr
Oakland @ Atlanta Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons
Seattle @ Minnesota Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings Seahawks
Cincinnati @ New England Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Chicago @ Jacksonville Bears Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
NY Giants @ Baltimore Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Indianapolis @ Houston Colts Colts Colts Colts Colts Colts
Cleveland @ Buffalo Bills Bills Bills Bills Bills Bills
New Orleans @ Dallas Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Detroit @ Green Bay Packers Packers Packers Packers Packers Packers
NY Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
Miami @ Denver Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos
San Francisco @ Arizona Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals 49ers
Tampa Bay @ San Diego Chargers Chargers Buccs Chargers Chargers Chargers
St. Louis @ Carolina Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers Panthers Rams
Philadelphia @ Washington Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles Eagles
Kansas City @ Tennessee Titans Chiefs Titans Titans Chiefs Chiefs

 

CHRISTMAS IDEAS

If you're looking for a great way to organize your family's Christmas Wish Lists, be sure to go to this site, designed by a good friend of mine.

And as I mentioned last week, I got my copy of 2004 Hardball Times Baseball Annual! It is far more impressive than I ever would have thought. Great articles, get writing, and very interesting and comprehensive statistics. It is well worth picking up for yourself or as a Christmas gift for family and friends who are baseball fans! By it here.

 

And on that note, I am going to call it a day! If you have any thoughts, opinions or questions on any topic, please feel free to e-mail me. Have a great week!

 

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