Monday, December 6, 2010
Winter Meetings Primer
The Winter Meetings have barely even started yet, and already, there is a ton of news. As Iíve mentioned, each night this week at 10:00 central time, I will be hosting a Winter Meetings Podcast in which I will discuss the dayís transactions, rumors and more, and try to put some Twins context to it all. Sunday night was the first Winter Meetings Podcast, and I was joined by Jim Crikket of Knuckleballsblog.com, and John Bonnes, aka The Twins Geek. Iím sure there are times when my thoughts are controversial to Twins fans. I mean, not as controversial as the Gophersí hiring of that Kill guy as their new football coach, but still, kind of controversial to some. We really discussed all aspects of the Winter Meetings and what to expect or hope for from the Twins.
Winter Meetings Podcast Schedule (all start at 10:00 central time): Monday Ė Nick Nelson, Tuesday Ė Aaron Gleeman, Wednesday Ė Phil Mackey (live from Orlando), Thursday Ė Travis Aune to talk about the Rule 5 draft and put a bow on the Winter Meetings.
†Here are some of my thoughts on the news from Sunday:
∑ I got beat up (not literally) this past summer when I suggested that Jayson Werth would make $100 million this offseason. However, I was shocked when he got seven years and $126 million from the Nationals. He is a very good player, but come on, heís not one of those types of players.
∑ Based on the Werth deal, I have no problem with Carl Crawford asking for eight years and $180 million. What will Cliff Lee get once the Yankees and Rangers start serious talks with him?
∑ What alarms me about the Werth signing most is that if Carl Pavano signs with the Nationals this week, the Twins would get the Nationalsí 3rd round pick. Their first-round pick is protected. Their second round pick likely goes to Philadelphia for Werth, so the Twins would get their third round pick, plus a supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds.
∑ Shawn Marcum was traded from Toronto to the Brewers last night. The Blue Jays received the Brewers top prospect, Brett Lawrie, who is a Canadian. It seems to be a good match. Of course, the Blue Jays are a team rumored to be interested in acquiring Zach Greinke, so itís possible this is a precursor to an even bigger deal. I would love to have seen Marcum in a Twins uniform the next several years. Lawrie is a good prospect, on par with Aaron Hicks.
∑ The White Sox signed Adam Dunn for four years and $56 million. They brought back AJ Pierzynski for two years and $8 million. They will likely bring back Paul Konerko in the next couple of days for around $13 million a season. The Tigers added Victor Martinez for four years and $50 millions to be their backup catcher and DH. I know a lot of Twins fans are upset about the AL Centrals doing this, but these players are certainly not players the Twins would have targeted anyway, so I donít quite get the reaction. The Tigers had $60 million come off the books, so it should be no surprised that they would spend.
∑ For the Twins, I would like to see them add a starting pitcher of high caliber. Marcum would have fit into that category. Greinke does as well. I donít think that I would overpay for Greinke the way that the Royals seemingly would expect the Twins to, but he would be a good addition. Of course, bringing back Carl Pavano for too many years and too many dollars is also a possibility. Depending upon that decision, the team may need to make a move involving one of their current starters.
∑ The big area that the Twins need to address is in the bullpen. With potential losses of Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch and others, they will need to add a couple of players. I just donít think that Gardy would have enough confidence in some of the younger, less experienced pitchers. Iíve mentioned Jose Veras and George Sherrill and Hideki Okajima, but there are others.
∑ I will be curious what happens with Jim Thome. I would love to see him back in a Twins uniform, but I also agree that it is hard to have such a one-dimensional option. He is said to be looking for two years, and he should be after last year. If the dollars make sense, great. Otherwise, I think that Matt Diaz may make a lot more sense since the Twins need a right-handed bench/DH bat more than a left-handed DH bat.
∑ One thing I would not like is to see JJ Hardy traded for only a relief pitcher. I get it. Apparently the Twins donít want to keep Hardy around. Without saying it, it is pretty clear. I think it would be a mistake to trade him for just a reliever, but I am not against trading him. I think he has much more value than that.
∑ That said, I have never †been a fan of signing big name free agents to big dollar, long-term contracts because they are generally bad contracts within a couple of years as the players get into their mid-30s. Free agent relievers are going to make a lot of money as well. Thatís why I understand that obtaining reliever help via trade probably makes the most sense. Otherwise, I might prefer the Twins wait another month for their reliever help.
∑ I am finding Twinsí fans angst somewhat comical. Yes, the White Sox signed Dunn, likely will resign Konerko and already brought back Pierzynski. The Tigers added Victor Martinez. All of those are big names, and yet they are names that the Twins should not have been involved in. The Twins needs are in relief pitching, and those types of signings will never garner huge excitement. I do expect Twins fans to be disappointed during the Winter Meetings, but Iím not certain they should be. Jayson Werth signing a ridiculous contract doesnít mean that the Twins are doing nothing. Iíd love to have Carl Crawford roaming left field, but not at $22.5 million. (and yes, I get that we have a catcher making the same). Cliff Lee? Heís going to make way too much for way too long too.
∑ That isnít written to give the Twins a free pass at all. In fact, I am a little concerned. With the dates for the various offseason decisions to be made all moving up, it appears that more will happen at the Winter Meetings than normal. I think the Twins are all-in on Carl Pavano, and although I donít think thatís a good idea, I do understand. But if they donít get him, what is the backup plan, and who will be left at that time? I want the Twins to get a solid reliever, like the names I mentioned above. But after that, theyíre all just names and I would have to wonder if theyíre better than the Twins internal options. I donít understand the urge to trade someone like JJ Hardy who, although he is very slow running the bases, has great range defensively and will only make $6 million next year. I wouldnít so much be nervous about a Nishioka/Casilla middle infield, Iíd be more worried about the next step if one got hurt or didnít play well.
∑ All that said, I am going to sit back and enjoy the Winter Meetings. It is fun to follow all the rumors, most of which are just that. Itís fun to discuss and dream and hope. †
With that, Iíll call it a day. Feel free to discuss throughout the day in the Comments as more Twins rumors and thoughts come to light. Again, be nice and respectful. †