Friday December 5, 2003
 

I’m being a little bit lazy. Didn’t get typing until late and have been spending a lot of time reading some other great websites. So I thought what I would do is plug some of those sites and write some of my thoughts on what they write. I hope they don’t mind or don’t get offended. I hope you will take the time to check out some of the links below. Just remember that a lot will probably happen in the next 48 hours since Sunday is the day that teams have to offer free agents arbitration. That decision is very important. Lots could happen. I’ll be back on Monday to analyze any deals that do happen. By the way, I have been receiving a lot of great response from the Hall of Fame discussion. Some have made cases for someone they think should be in the Hall. Others have made other great comments. Here are the links to those two posts, in case you haven’t seen them yet. And please feel free to send me an e-mail. I’d love to hear your thoughts. I will probably have a mailbag issue sometime next week with some of the responses!

HALL OF FAME DISCUSSION - Part 1 (First-Timers)

HALL OF FAME DISCUSSION - Part 2 (The Returners)

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS
 

BLOG SPOTTING

·         Check out this The Transaction Guy link. He wrote a great posting chronicling the dialogue between Yankees owner George Steinbrenner and his GM Brian Cashman. It’s comical, and probably very accurate. Steinbrenner upset because the Red Sox got Schilling, telling Cashman to make a huge deal. Cashman tells Steinbrenner they have nothing in their farm system (which is very true), and Steinbrenner basically threatening Cashman to get a deal done.

                Seth’s Thoughts on Javier Vazquez for Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera and Randy Choate Trade-

Another great trade for the Yankees. Javier Vazquez is a special pitcher. Hard throwing, with other great pitches, Vazquez is a strikeout pitcher. And, he’s still young. He will fit into a rotation that will also include Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and Jose Contreras (with the likes of Jeff Weaver, Jon Lieber and David Wells as possible 5^th starters and don’t be surprised if the Yankees sign another big name starter too) to create a starting rotation to try to counter the Red Sox.

But it was also a good trade for the Expos. A lot of statheads seem to think that Nick Johnson is a future superstar. I’m not so sure, but I do think that he could be very solid. With the Yankees getting older and Jason Giambi needing to play first base, Nick Johnson is very expendable. Juan Rivera wasn’t going to bust into the starting outfield with Hideki Matsui, Bernie Williams and Gary Sheffield there, but he could help the Expos replace Vlad Guerrero (ok, ‘replace’ isn’t the right word). And, Randy Choate has had a bunch of success for the Yankees, but with them resigning Felix Heredia and (probably) Gabe White, Choate is tradebale too.

So essentially, the Yankees are trading three players who would not be getting full-time playing time with them to the Expos for one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Expos trade a possible $10 million man for three players who could help them next year, yet are still young with big upsides.

·         Clifford’s Big Red Blog is an excellent site. He does bring up a couple of other really strong points on the other side of this trade, and as a Yankees fan, his opinion means a lot to me. He knows how great Vazquez is (And he gives some impressive numbers). He knew that Nick Johnson was going to be traded somewhere, so getting Vazquez was probably as good as they could have hoped for. But he makes a few other points looking at the trade from the other side. For example, the Yankees now are without any minor league prospects. Literally, Rivera and Johnson were the last ones. He also discusses the CF and DH situations with the Yankees. Well worth the read!

·         A few weeks ago, I ran the updated version of my Bang for the Buck posting and got some great responses from that. Someone else took some time to analyze player value. Be sure to go to Baseball Graphs and check out their Fun With Win Shares links. Some of them are way over my head, but they’re all very interesting. Dave told me that he is working on a couple more exciting ideas, so bookmark the page and keep checking back there.

·         There is also a great posting from Jay at the Futility Infielder website (insert Nick Punto joke here). He discussed the New York Yankees pitching staff (pre-Vazquez trade). He also looks at this offseason’s free agent pitchers. He uses multiple statistics to show where these guys rank against each other.

Seth’s Thoughts - With the Twins now having freed up lots of money with the Eric Milton trade, the AJ Pierzynski trade and LaTroy Hawkins signing with the Cubs, I think that we (and Terry Ryan) should take a long look at this list. I’ve said positive things about John Thomson in the past, and I will definitely support the Twins signing him and making him their #4 pitcher. I would like to get some numbers from Jay on Milton and compare them with Thomson’s and just see how they compare. I would imagine they are very similar, and it is important to remember that Thomson could be had for 25% the cost of Milton, or less.

Speaking of the Eric Milton trade, there have been a lot of posts regarding Milton’s trade to Philadelphia. First, be sure to check back at my thoughts on the deal from yesterday. There are a number of different angles to view the trade from, so be sure to check these out:

·         Star-Tribune Baseball Insider Jim Souhan wrote another great article for today. He discusses the players who have left the team via trade or free agency as well as the players who have been rumored to be traded. It’s incredibly interesting. Did you know AJ Pierzynski demanded a trade this summer when he was benched for a few games for the way he interacted with the umpires? Terry Ryan believes the Twins lineup is better suited with Shannon Stewart leading off than with Jacque Jones hitting in the middle of the order. Please check out the link to his article. It’s well-worth the read!!

·         Aaron’s Baseball Blog - Aaron really is impressed with the trade and all the things Terry Ryan has done, so far. The big question now is how the Twins plan to use that $9 million they just freed up.

·         Three Up, Three Down - Sam makes a couple great points. He doesn’t like the Torii Hunter quotes saying that he is disappointed. However, the point that I agree with him on is this; the Twins have no need to trade Jacque Jones. Why is Terry Ryan so intent on trading Jones, and his $4.35 million contract so that he can sign Shannon Stewart for $6-$7 million? I don’t get it. Shannon Stewart was great for the Twins in the second half of the season, but is he truly that much better than Jacque Jones? I don’t think so. Jones was injured much of last year. Keep him out of the leadoff spot and I think he can be very productive. I’ve said all along that I think Lew Ford could be a good leadoff hitter too. I think that the patience of Corey Koskie or Doug Mientkiewicz could be decent leadoff hitters. I just don’t think that you spend that much extra money for a guy that isn’t the power hitter that the team continues to need! Instead. Sign Jacque to a reasonable extension, and pick up a pitcher… John Thomson!!!

·         Ben Jacobs wrote a very interesting posting at Universal Baseball Blog called The Art of Salary Dumping on the six trades that happened (the Vazquez to the Yankees trade was completed just after Ben posted). In it, he writes in detail about each trade. He really liked the Milton trade too.

Seth’s Thoughts - Not really my thoughts on what he wrote, because it’s great, but here are two sentences from what he wrote that stood out in my mind:

Of the five teams that "dumped" players, four of them had winning records last year and two of them made the playoffs. Of the five teams that "were dumped on," all of them had winning records last year and three of them made the playoffs.

To me, that says that there are two ways to win baseball games. There are teams like the Yankees and Red Sox who go out and buy players to win. That has proven to work in the regular season. But it also shows that the teams like the Twins and Marlins can build a team with a budget and a farm system and still win in the regular season. The playoffs have also shown that once you get to the playoffs, it’s all about which team is playing better baseball, not that either organizational philosophy is better than another.

·         Bryan at Wait Til Next Year looked at the Eric Milton trade from the Phillies perspective and diving into the stats of Milton, Silva and Punto.

·         Also, be sure to check out this site. It is about how Curt Schilling hit the Son of Sam Horn message board (A Red Sox fans forum) and participated in some chatting as he was deciding whether or not to go to the Red Sox. He was very candid about what was going through his mind. After the deal was complete, Red Sox owner John Henry took some time to comment on the website as well.

Rich at Rich’s Weekend Baseball Beat has had a great article on the late Warren Spahn on his site the past couple of days. I would encourage you to check out his site this weekend when he will be posting an interview with Mike Carminati of Mike’s Baseball Rants. I asked Rich what to expect from his interview with Mike, and he sent me this:

I'll think you will enjoy this one. Mike's not only a character but he is very knowledgeable about the history of the game and is very current, too. It's a good exchange, and I hope it will be a good read.

I'm also planning on writing a second article this weekend on some tidbits gathered from the new Bill James Baseball Handbook. Kind of a news and notes type piece with clips on some of my findings.

Seth’s Thoughts: Be sure to check Rich’s site a few times over the weekend because both the interview and the bits from Bill James Handbook will be very interesting. By the way, for another more statistical based look at this year’s Hall of Fame ballot, be sure to check out this link at Mike’s Baseball Rants because he does an excellent job.

That’s it for the baseball information for today and for this week, unless something major happens. Thanks for stopping by the site. If you have any questions or comments, please e-mail me.
 

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS      

I mentioned a couple of our panelists today, but be sure to check our FB Picks page to check out their bios and link to their websites. When Ben Jacobs (who is just one game out of first place) sent me his picks this week, he wrote, “My basic plan is to just cross my fingers and pray, what a tough week!”

And how true. There were many tough games to pick. Look down at the summary of our picks. There are more 5-4 and 6-3 picks than we’ve probably ever had. Should make for an interesting weekend of football!
 

SUMMARY -

San Diego @ Detroit - Lions 5-4

Chicago @ Green Bay - Packers 8-1

Indianapolis @ Tennessee - Titans 5-4

Seattle @ Minnesota - Seahawks 8-1

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans - Saints 7-2

Washington @ NY Giants - Giants 5-4

Dallas @ Philadelphia - Eagles 7-2

Oakland @ Pittsburgh - Steelers 7-2

Houston @ Jacksonville - Jaguars 6-3

Cincinnati @ Baltimore - Ravens 8-1

Arizona @ San Francisco - 49ers 9-0

Miami @ New England - Patriots 5-4

NY Jets @ Buffalo - Jets 8-1

Kansas City @ Denver - Chiefs 6-3

Carolina @ Atlanta -  Panthers 5-4

St. Louis @ Cleveland - Rams 9-0

 

That’s it for this week! Have a wonderful weekend! Any questions or comments, E-mail me!

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