Wednesday

The Hall of Fame Ballots have been sent out again to the Baseball Writers of America. If you recall, last year, I spent one day talking about the new players on the ballot, and one day discussing those returning to the ballot. If you know any of your local members of the Baseball Writers of America, e-mail them, or write them and let them know who they should vote for. They may or may not agree with you, or me, but feel free to send them this link. Can't hurt right?! I know I did this last year and got some good comments. Some agreed with me on Bert Blyleven and some just said there was no way they would ever consider the thoughts of "outsiders." It was really quite interesting.

Today, I am going to discuss those players returning to the ballot from last year's vote, and tomorrow I will discuss the players who are making their first appearance on the ballot. For those returning, I will use the same information that I did a year ago. (The only players that are different are Fernando Valenzuela and Keith Hernandez, who did not get the required 5% of the vote to stay on the ballot. Also, Paul Molitor and Dennis Eckersley were first-year ballot guys a year ago who got in. No other first-year guys got even 5% of the vote.) My opinion is, of course, that those players have done absolutely nothing over the past twelve months to improve their Hall of Fame credentials. However, I do reserve the right to change my mind, and I have done that for one player who last year I did not think was a Hall of Famer, and now I do.

So, let's get to it. Again, I would love to hear your comments on my thoughts, so please e-mail me.

Bert Blyleven - Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, California Angels

Seasons	G	GS	IP	W	L	S	ERA	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA+
22	692	685	4970	287	250	0	3.31	4632	2029	1830	1322	3701	118

How is it possible that the 52 year old Bert Blyleven is not a Hall of Famer? Two World Series Championships (’79 with the Pirates, ’87 with the Twins). 9^th on the All-Time Shutout list with 60. When Bert Blyleven retired, he was 3^rd on the All-Time strikeout list with 3,701 strikeouts. He is still 5^th place on that list:

I think we all know that Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson will be first-ballot Hall of Famers. So, no pitcher with more than 3,000 career strikeouts is NOT in the Hall of Fame… except one, Bert Blyleven. Why does that make sense? Why don’t voters vote for him? If he had not played those couple of years for bad Cleveland teams and somehow won 12 more ball games, there would be absolutely no question that Bert Blyleven would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Let’s take a quick look at the 10 players that Baseball Reference says are most similar to Bert Blyleven:

From that list, all but Tommy John and Jim Kaat have already been inducted into baseball’s Hall of Fame. So as I’ve asked before, someone please explain to me how Bert Blyleven is not a Hall of Fame pitcher. If you know, please, e-mail me.

Seasons	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	OPS+
19	2488	8723	993	2326	389	48	101	950	736	1186	0.267	0.322	0.357	321	88

A member of four World Series teams with the vaunted Big Red Machine. The team won championships in 1975 and 1976. Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan and Tony Perez have already been inducted from those teams, so I’m sure that’s why he’s still on the ballot. A very solid shortstop for a lot of years, Concepcion was a nine-time All-Star. He was an above average shortstop earning five Gold Glove Awards. A solid performer for some very good teams, but the Hall is for the best of the best!

Andre Dawson - Montreal Expos, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Florida Marlins

Seasons	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	OPS+
21	2627	9927	1373	2774	503	98	438	1591	589	1509	0.279	0.323	0.482	314	119

Hawk had a pretty solid career and you have to wonder what it could have been with two healthy knees! Dawson won eight Gold Glove Awards and was a All-Star eight times as well. He won the 1987 NL MVP despite his Chicago Cubs finishing in last place. Two other times he finished second in MVP voting. His 438 homers rank 29^th all-time and his 1,591 RBI ranks him 28^th. Was Andre Dawson a great player? Yes! Was he a Hall of Famer? I don’t think so, but he’s close enough that he will remain on the ballot for the duration.

Seasons	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	OPS+
19	2332	8835	1143	2599	440	43	272	1308	479	1003	0.294	0.329	0.446	83	116

Steve Garvey actually put up some very good career numbers. He was a 10 time All-Star. He was 0-3 in his World Series appearances with the Dodgers in the 1970s, but then the team won the 1981 World Series. He then went to San Diego where his team lost in the 1984 World Series. As solid a hitter as Garvey was, he was probably a better defensive player. He won just four Gold Glove Awards, but he held a career .996 Fielding percentage. His 9.04 Range Factor was well above the 7.96 league average. Another good thing about Garvey, he played almost every day and still holds the National League record for consecutive games played!

Rich Gossage – Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Oakland A’s, Seattle Mariners

Seasons	G	GS	IP	W	L	S	ERA	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA+
22	1002	37	1809.3	124	107	310	3.01	1497	670	605	732	1502	126

Goose Gossage was intimidating, mustache and all! Along with Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter, Gossage needs to be judged different than most other pitchers. They were closers before the current closer role was defined. They would pitch 2-3 innings frequently throughout the year. They would come into tie games or when the team was ahead or behind. And, of the three, I think that Gossage was the best. Fingers is already in the Hall, and Sutter is approaching receiving the necessary votes. He was a 9 time All-Star. His 310 saves are 13^th on the all-time list, and Fingers is the only pitcher from his era above him. He even won a World Series ring with the Yankees in 1978. He appeared in the 1981 World Series with the Yankees and the ’84 Series with the Padres, but his teams lost in both cases.

Tommy John – Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles, New York Yankees, California Angels, Oakland A’s

Seasons	G	GS	IP	W	L	S	ERA	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA+
26	760	700	4710.3	288	231	4	3.34	4783	2017	1749	1259	2245	111

Tommy John is another interesting case for the Hall of Fame. He has some pretty impressive numbers, but a lot of them were accumulated because he pitched for so long. Of course, he is best known as having an arm surgery named after him. But he came back from that and continued to pitch well for almost 15 more seasons. John was named to four All-Star teams. Two times he finished second in the Cy Young Award vote. His teams lost the three World Series that John was part of (’77 and ‘78 Dodgers, ’81 Yankees). Again, just 12 more wins would probably ensure him a spot in Cooperstown, but his 288 wins still ranks 24^th all-time.

Seasons	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	OPS+
14	1785	7003	1007	2153	442	20	222	1099	588	444	0.307	0.358	0.471	14	127

There was quite a bit of discussion on this site after Don Mattingly was named the Yankees new hitting coach a month ago. A six time All-Star. Nine Gold Glove Awards. Donnie Baseball was the 1985 AL MVP, just beating out George Brett. In 1986, he finished second behind Roger Clemens in the MVP voting. Injuries definitely hurt his career the last five or six years, but he refused to miss much playing time because of it. He was the heart and soul of some bad ‘80s Yankees teams.

Jack Morris - Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians

Seasons	G	GS	IP	W	L	S	ERA	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA+
18	549	527	3824	254	186	0	3.90	3567	1815	1657	1390	2478	105

Twins fans want Jack Morris in the Hall of Fame simply for Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. After Josh Beckett’s Game 6 win against the Yankees in dominant fashion, many said that it was the greatest pitching performance in a World Series. Those people are either dumb, or they didn’t see Jack Morris’ 10-inning shutout against the Braves. However, a Hall of Fame plaque is earned for a career, not individual games, no matter how big. Jack Morris was the "winningest" pitcher in the big leagues for the decade of the ‘80s! (Note – he was also the "losingest" pitcher of that decade) A bulldog, Morris wanted to pitch a lot of innings. He pitched in five All-Star games. His 3.90 ERA is quite high for the Hall of Fame, and that 105 ERA+ is just slightly above average. But Morris shined on the big stage. He played on 3 World Series championship teams. First with the Tigers in 1984, then the aforementioned Twins 1991 team and again the following year with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Seasons	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	OPS+
18	2180	7960	1197	2111	350	39	398	1266	986	1748	0.265	0.346	0.469	161	121

Dale Murphy always gets talked of as a Hall of Famer. I can’t say I understand that, but he was a very good player for most of a decade with the Braves. He won the 1982 and 1983 NL MVP awards, hitting 36 home runs both years. He actually led the league in home runs the next two years with 36 and 37 homers, respectively. He was a seven time All-Star and a five time Gold Glove winning outfielder, very impressive considering he came up to the Braves a catcher. He had his great years and then his career plummeted and in a hurry. But the career numbers are very good. Maybe if he, instead of Claudell Washington was my favorite player at that time, I would be more biased toward the Murphy vote.

Dave Parker – Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Oakland A’s, Milwaukee Brewers, California Angels, Toronto Blue Jays

Seasons	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	OPS+
19	2466	9358	1272	2712	526	75	339	1493	683	1537	0.290	0.339	0.471	154	121

Like Keith Hernandez, drug problems may have cost Parker some time, or at least a break from the media. But Dave Parker was a great all-around hitter. He played on seven All-Star teams. He won three Gold Gloves. He won the 1978 NL MVP Award and finished in the Top 5 in voting five times! He appeared in three World Series. His Sister Sledge “We Are Family” Pirates won the 1979 Series. Then he played on the 1988 and 1989 Oakland A’s teams that lost and then won the World Series.

Seasons	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	OPS+
16	2089	8225	1249	2452	373	79	382	1451	670	1423	0.298	0.352	0.502	58	128

Jim Rice always gets plenty of support from the New England media when he isn’t selected for the Hall of Fame. I agree that he was a great player as well. Good power, good average. Rice played on eight All-Star teams. He won the 1978 AL MVP and finished in the Top 5 in voting six times. He was part of the ’86 Red Sox team that lost the heartbreaking World Series to the Mets. Jim Rice has a very strong OPS+. I’m not convinced that he’s more a Hall of Famer than any of the others on this list, but I am sure he will be the one getting the most coverage by the media!

Seasons	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	OPS+
16	2164	8385	1318	2386	403	76	282	1061	761	1260	0.285	0.344	0.452	344	114

Another interesting case is Ryne Sandberg. Maybe he’s an example of why sometimes being eligible for the Hall of Fame more than one year is good. At first look, Sandberg’s numbers are great, but not necessarily Hall of Fame caliber on their own. He played in ten straight All Star games (1984-1993) and won nine Gold Gloves at 2B. He was the 1984 NL MVP and three times he finished in the Top 5 in voting. All very good, but Hall of Fame? Now compare his numbers against other 2B, and especially other 2B during his era. That’s where the argument arises that he could be a Hall of Fame 2B!

Lee Smith – Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, California Angels, Cincinnati Reds, Montreal Expos

Seasons	G	GS	IP	W	L	S	ERA	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA+
18	1022	6	1289.3	71	92	478	3.03	1133	475	434	486	1251	132

Now, I’m right there with many others that say that the Save is one of the most over-rated statistics in baseball history. But, like the DH, the closer has become a big part of the game of baseball. That was Lee Smith’s role for his career and he did it well. Look at his strikeouts/IP at almost 1.0. Look at his ERA+. Lee Smith was one of the first to redefine the closer role as it is today. He led the league in Saves four times and finished in the top 5 of his league eleven time. Smith was also a seven time All-Star.

Seasons	G	GS	IP	W	L	S	ERA	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA+
12	661	0	1042.3	68	71	300	2.83	879	370	328	309	861	136

Bruce Sutter’s career wasn’t as long as Gossage’s, but it was equally as dominant. 300 saves with a 2.83 career ERA. That 136 ERA+ shows just how strong he was. A six-time All-Star, Sutter was named the 1979 NL Cy Young Award winner. He finished top 5 for the award four other times. He was also a member of the 1982 St. Louis Cardinals World Series championship team.

Seasons	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	SB	OPS+
20	2293	8288	1231	2365	412	55	185	1003	850	874	0.285	0.352	0.415	236	110

I have to admit, I totally don’t understand why there are so many people that think that Alan Trammell is a Hall of Fame caliber player. Just look at his numbers. They’re good, but they’re far from earth-shattering. And, I’m a huge supporter of the fact that numbers and stats don’t tell the whole story. This must be a case of that! Trammell was a six time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner for the Tigers. He was also the MVP of the 1984 World Series. One more thing that really sticks in my mind as a reason he should not be a Hall of Famer is his number of games played each season. Starting with his first full season in 1978, here are the number of games Trammell played in through 1996 (139, 142, 146, 105, 157, 142, 139, 149, 151, 151, 128, 121, 146, 101, 29, 112, 76, 74, 66). If you’re a Hall of Famer, you should be averaging less time off each season. His double-play partner, Lou Whitaker, deserves just as much consideration in my mind.

Again I can’t stress enough that I think all of these players were incredible! They not only stayed in the league for more than a decade, but their careers are strong enough to remain on this ballot and some of them may still end up in the Hall of Fame. So, here are the results if I were to give a percentage that I think they will receive (Not based on last year or any other percentage):

In other words, I think that a couple of these guys will finally get into the Hall. I think that Dawson and Rice will stay high, but not near 75% I also think that Bert Blyleven will continue to gain percentage just because his career numbers are too good to continue to ignore.

I wish I had a vote for this honor. I would really take it seriously. I would do my homework, and obviously far more than just what you see above. Again, as a voter, I would have the ability to vote for up to ten players for the Hall of Fame. Here are my choices with my thoughts on those on the ballot for the first time still to go tomorrow: