Thursday, November 29, 2007

Thursday Three

And WEEK 13 PICKS

Good morning! It is Thursday, and tonight there is a potentially great football game that most of America won’t be able to watch. The 10-1 Packers take on the 10-1 Cowboys in Dallas. I don’t know if I would watch much of it even if I could since Grey’s Anatomy should be on, but it would be nice if I could. And, with the game tonight, that means that we have our NFL “Expert” Panel’s picks today. Along with that, I will also be posting my responses to three questions (The Thursday Three?) that I have received from readers in the last couple of days. Hope you enjoy:

From Justin W –

I got an email this morning pretty much dissing the Twins hard from a Brewer fan. Can you share any of your knowledge of this Joe Nathan issue? I don’t get what the Twins are thinking here.

Seth’s Thoughts:

First, if the Twins can get Corey Hart for Joe Nathan, they have to take it. I am of the opinion that closers are a dime a dozen, and I know that sounds a bit harsh. I just find it really hard to justify spending $10 million or more on a guy who will only pitch about 70 innings in a season. Yes, I think that Joe Nathan is right up there with Jonathan Papelbon as the top closers in baseball today. He is still young enough that a four year contract could be justified. However, the Twins do have other bullpen options that could be the job done for $10-$13 million less than Nathan could cost in 2009 and beyond. I like Joe Nathan as much as anyone, but I can’t imagine giving a closer that much money. If I were the GM, there is no way I would do that. So again, if you can get a great package for a guy who will pitch that few innings, you at least have to consider it. Here are a couple of things that I do think are important in this though:

1.) He is only scheduled to make $6 million in 2008. That is chump change for a top closer in this market. That’s hardly even worth worrying about. It also makes him much more appealing to other tams. It makes him appealing to all 29 of the other teams whereas the market for Johan Santana seems to be limited to two or three teams. That creates more competition, so a strong package for Nathan is a possibility.

2.) Being one of the top two or three closers in baseball, Nathan is almost certain to be a Type A free agent. That means that the Twins would get two high draft picks if they were to lose him. Tying this in with a very affordable 2007 contract, keeping him is not a horrible option. Again, this gives the Twins the leverage.

3.) Should the Twins deal Johan Santana, they will be left with a very young starting rotation. A very young, very talented rotation. As you know, I think that the “Win” stat for starting pitchers is pretty meaningless, BUT to the pitcher it is a very nice thing to get. Having a shut-down guy at the back end of games to close out starter’s Wins could be great for their psyche. That is much more important to a young pitcher than a more veteran pitcher.

I know this response really doesn’t answer the question. I do think that Joe Nathan is being shopped. If the Twins can get a great offer from someone, they absolutely should consider it IF they have traded Johan Santana. The Brewers just lost Francisco Cordero to a four year, $46 million deal with the Reds. Derrick Turnbow would be their closer if the season were to end today. They are currently saying that acquiring Nathan is unlikely, but that clearly could change. There are several other teams that would love to have a pitcher of Nathan’s quality in their bullpen.

From Bill in Forest Lake –

If possible could you put together a list of the Twins players who are eligible for the Rule-5 draft and those who you think they may be in danger of losing. I realize this is a tough thing to predict but I am just curious.

Seth’s Thoughts:

Back on August 30^th, I wrote up my thoughts on the Twins 40 man roster. Of course, a lot has now happened since then, some of which I was right about. Some… not so much. Some… to be determined. Anyway, on that day, I wrote the following:

So, who are some of the guys the need to be considered for the 40 man roster, guys who could be taken in the Rule V draft if not protected? First, college players drafted in 2004. Those players include Matt Fox, Jay Sawatski, JP Martinez, Kyle Aselton, Matt Tolbert, Tim Lahey and Matt Macri. Second, high school players draft in the 2003 draft. That list includes Matt Moses, Johnny Woodard, David Shinskie, David Winfree, Danny Vais, Eli Tintor and Adam Hawes (JC). Also, players from previous drafts like Doug Deeds, Kyle Geiger, Bobby Korecky and Brock Peterson from the 2002 draft. Jose Morales, Angel Garcia, Garrett Guzman and Nick Blackburn were selected by the Twins in the 2001 draft. Finally, International players signed in 2003 and earlier such as Yohan Pino, Tristan Crawford, Armando Gabino, Luke Hughes and Frank Mata.

If I had to select which of these players that I would protect, I would go with: Jay Sawatski, Matt Tolbert, Tim Lahey, Matt Macri, Matt Moses, David Winfree, Brock Peterson, Jose Morales, Garrett Guzman, Nick Blackburn, Yohan Pino and Armando Gabino. By adding twelve new players to the list, that would leave the Twins at 39 players on the 40 man roster. That way, the Twins can still make a Rule V selection.

The Twins have added Matt Tolbert, Matt Macri and Bobby Korecky to their 40 man roster. Nick Blackburn was called up after this time, so he was already added. I do believe that the rest of these guys would be eligible to be drafted. So, who could be selected?

Well, most frequently, the types of players that are selected in the Rule V draft are utility infielders, lefty relievers, high-potential relievers, and guys with huge upside who are young but signed when very young, usually as an international free agent. Players that fit into those categories are possibly Sawatski, Aselton, Gabino and Pino. Personally, I don’t think any of them would be taken. But there are a couple of guys with power potential that I do think could be drafted; Brock Peterson and David Winfree. Those are really the only two that I would really be worried about losing. However, one sleeper possibility would be Frank Mata who is doing a very nice job for the Aragua team in his home country of Venezuela. He missed the 2006 season because of Tommy John surgery, but he came back with a solid 2007 campaign. Not likely, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked.

From Mark C

Could you write on what the Twins'receive as compensation for the Angels' signing of Hunter? I understand it is the 27th pick in the first round of the draft and a sandwich pick. What do you think that equates to? Could you take a look at a draft say 5 or 6 years ago and tell us what kind of players we might be able to get for those picks? It will make the pain less intense although it might make it worse if the picks are not good ones.

Seth’s Thoughts:

That is an interesting question, and of course, the draft is anything but a perfect science. But just to give an idea, I thought I would look at two things. First, I will tell you who the last ten 27^th overall picks were. Then, compensation for Torii Hunter should give the Twins a pick between 31 and 40, likely higher than 35. So, I will also tell you which players drafted between picks 31 and 40 have made it to the big leagues:

27^th Overall Picks:

1997 – Kevin Nicholson- the Padres took the SS from Stetson. He played in 30 games for the Padres in 2000. 2004 was his final season in affiliated ball.

1998 – Chip Ambres – the high school OF did not sign. He was a 30^th round pick in 2000 by Seattle. Played in 53 games for the Royals in ’05 and 3 games with the ’07 Mets.

1999 – David Walling – a pitcher drafted by the Yankees from Arkansas got to AAA in 2001 and 2002, but hasn’t pitched since.

2000 – Robert Stiehl – a college catcher selected by Houston never got above Hi-A.

2001 – Alan Horne – Did Not Sign with Cleveland, the pitcher went to college, then was taken by the Yankees in the 11^th round, signed, and last year at AA went 12-4 (3.11).

2002 – Sergio Santos – high school shortstop taken by Arizona was traded to Toronto where he played in AAA in 2007.

2003 – Eric Duncan – The Yankees too the high school 3B. Showed signs early of stardom, but hasn’t performed the last couple years. Behind A-Rod and moving to 1B.

2004 – Taylor Tankersley – the college reliever pitched in 49 games for Florida in 2006 and 67 games for the Marlins in 2007.

2005 – Joey Devine – another college reliever, the Braves rushed him into 5 games for the team in late 2005. He pitched 10 games for them in ’06 and 10 games in ’07.

2006 – Jason Place – the high school outfielder spent 2007 in AA.

2007 – Rick Porcello – The Tigers took the Boras client one pick before Ben Revere.

Taken between 31^st and 40^th pick:

1997 – Jason Standridge, Nathan Haynes, Jason Romano, Ryan Bradley

1998 – Chris George, Ben Diggins, Brad Wilkerson, Nate Cornejo, Aaron Rowand, Choo Freeman

1999 – Casey Daigle, Jason Repko, Colby Lewis, Jerome Williams

2000 – Aaron Heilman (DNS-Twins), Dustin McGowan, Tyrell Godwin, Bob Keppel, Derek Thompson, Kelly Johnson

2001 – Noah Lowry, Jeff Mathis, John Rheinecker, David Wright

2002 – Dan Meyer, Jeremy Brown, Mark Teahen

2003 – Adam Miller, Matt Murton, Omar Quintanilla, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Adam Jones

2004 – JP Howell, Zach Jackson, Huston Street

2005 – Travis Buck, Clay Buccholz (42), Jed Lowrie (45), Michael Bowden (47)

2006 – Joba Chamberlain (41)

Not a lot to get overly excited about, which of course means absolutely nothing for the 2008 draft picks, but it is interesting to take a look .

With that, let’s get to the Week 13 Picks of our Panel.

WEEK 13

	Seth Stohs	Roger Dehring	Kyle Waldrop	Kevin Slowey	Jeff Manship	Joe Benson
	SethSpeaks.net	Twins Minor League Expert	Reigning champ, and Twins pitching prospect	Twins starting pitcher	Twins Pitching Prospect	Twins Outfield Prospect
Green Bay @ Dallas	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Atlanta @ St. Louis	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Buffalo @ Washington	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins
Detroit @ Minnesota	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Lions	Vikings	Lions
Houston @ Tennessee	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts
NY Jets @ Miami	Dolphins	Jets	Dolphins	Jets	Jets	Dolphins
San Diego @ Kansas City	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers
Seattle @ Philadelphia	Eagles	Seahawks	Eagles	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
San Francisco @ Carolina	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans	Saints	Buccs	Buccs	Saints	Saints	Buccs
Cleveland @ Arizona	Browns	Browns	Browns	Cardinals	Browns	Browns
Denver @ Oakland	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos
NY Giants @ Chicago	Giants	Giants	Bears	Giants	Giants	DA Bears
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers by 24	Steelers	Steelers
New England @ Baltimore	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
	John Bonnes	Stick & Ball Guy	Will Young	Nick Nelson	Josh Johnson	Josh Taylor
	Twins Geek and mngameday.com	Stick & Ball Guy	Will's Twins Blog	Nick & Nick's Twins Blog	Josh's Thoughts	Taylor's Twins Thoughts
Green Bay @ Dallas	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Atlanta @ St. Louis	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Buffalo @ Washington	Redskins	Bills	Bills	Bills	Bills	Redskins
Detroit @ Minnesota	Lions	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Lions	Vikings
Houston @ Tennessee	Titans	Titans	Texans	Titans	Texans	Texans
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis	Colts	Colts	Colts	Jaguars	Colts	Jaguars
NY Jets @ Miami	Dolphins	Dolphins	Jets	Jets	Jets	Dolphins
San Diego @ Kansas City	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers
Seattle @ Philadelphia	Seahawks	Eagles	Seahawks	Seahawks	Eagles	Eagles
San Francisco @ Carolina	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints
Cleveland @ Arizona	Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns
Denver @ Oakland	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos
NY Giants @ Chicago	Bears	Giants	Giants	Giants	Bears	Giants
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
New England @ Baltimore	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
	Cory Hepola	Vic Quick	Wes Holtsclaw	Howard Sinker	Tim Kohlemainen	LaVelle E. Neal
	WENY-TV	KOTA-TV	Elizabethton Star	Section 220	Truth About Cats & Blogs	Twins Insider
Green Bay @ Dallas	Cowboys	Cowboys	Romo	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Atlanta @ St. Louis	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Buffalo @ Washington	Redskins	Redskins	Skins	Redskins	Redskins	Bills
Detroit @ Minnesota	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings
Houston @ Tennessee	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts
NY Jets @ Miami	Jets	Dolphins	Jets	Dolphins	Jets	Dolphins
San Diego @ Kansas City	Chiefs	Chargers	Chargers	Chiefs	Chargers	Chiefs
Seattle @ Philadelphia	Eagles	Eagles	Seahawks	Seahawks	Eagles	Eagles
San Francisco @ Carolina	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	49ers
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans	Buccs	Saints	Buccs	Saints	Saints	Saints
Cleveland @ Arizona	Cardinals	Cardinals	Browns	Cardinals	Cardinals	Browns
Denver @ Oakland	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos
NY Giants @ Chicago	Giants	Bears	Giants	Bears	Bears	Giants
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
New England @ Baltimore	Patriots	Patriots	Bellicheat	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
	Al Bethke	Bill Ferris	JD Arney	Mike Brasel	Melissa Lien
	Al's Ramblings	Detroit Tigers Blog	Reds Reporter	Fantasy FB Guru	SethSpeaks.net
Green Bay @ Dallas	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Packers
Atlanta @ St. Louis	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Buffalo @ Washington	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins
Detroit @ Minnesota	Vikings	Lions	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings
Houston @ Tennessee	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Texans
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis	Colts	Colts	Colts	Jaguars	Colts
NY Jets @ Miami	Dolphins	Jets	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins
San Diego @ Kansas City	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers
Seattle @ Philadelphia	Eagles	Seahawks	Seahawks	Eagles	Seahawks
San Francisco @ Carolina	Panthers	49ers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints	Buccs
Cleveland @ Arizona	Cardinals	Cardinals	Browns	Browns	Browns
Denver @ Oakland	Broncos	Raiders	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos
NY Giants @ Chicago	Giants	Bears	Giants	Giants	Giants
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh	Steelers	Bengals	Bengals	Steelers	Steelers
New England @ Baltimore	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots

Summary

Looking at the selections of the panelists, here is who the collective "We" think will win each game:

Thursday Night –
Green Bay @ Dallas – Cowboys 22-1 
Sunday –
Atlanta @ St. Louis –  Rams 23-0
Buffalo @ Washington – Redskins 18-5
Detroit @ Minnesota – Vikings 18-5
Houston @ Tennessee – Titans 19-4
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis – Colts 20-3
NY Jets @ Miami – Dolphins 13-10
San Diego @ Kansas City – Chargers 18-5
Seattle @ Philadelphia – Seahawks 12-11
San Francisco @ Carolina – Panthers 21-2
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans – Saints 17-6
Cleveland @ Arizona – Browns 16-7
Denver @ Oakland – Broncos 22-1
NY Giants @ Chicago – Giants 15-8
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh – Steelers 21-2
Monday Night –
New England @ Baltimore –  Patriots 23-0

 Thanks again for stopping by this site. Have a great day! If you have any questions, comments or ideas for future postings, please e-mail me.

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