***Breaking News – Twins Trade AJ Pierzynski to the Giants for Joe Nathan, Boof Bonser, and Francisco Liriano.***

Friday November 14, 2003

NFL “EXPERT” FOOTBALL PICKS

TIMBERWOLVES WIN IN OT

RANDOM NOTES

(Quick Note – unless something big happens in the world of sports over the weekend, there will not be a posting on Monday, November 17, 2003. I need a day off and actually won’t even be in town. So, you get to enjoy the following article for an extra day!!! Lucky you! Have a great weekend!)

Bang For The Buck - The Remix

This report took quite some time, finding and then entering all of the data. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please feel free to e-mail me! I also need to thank the people over at Baseball Prospectus  for the work they do to provide many great statistics. I also need to thank Lee Sinnis, who re-sent me his RCAA reports so that I could use them in this report. I also need to thank everyone who took the time to e-mail me your thoughts on the previous version of this report. Every bit of it helped.

Almost a month ago, I calculated and wrote up a rough draft of a Bang for the Buck article. It was a very rudimentary, simple calculation. The equation was just OPS divided by Salary. In doing that report, I knew that it would be too simple. OPS (On base plus Slugging Percentage) is just a number. Yes, it signifies how well a player performs, but it doesn’t do any comparison to other players. It doesn’t adjust for park or league averages.

Things I learned from that report include that it is difficult to compare a rookie making the league minimum salary of $300,000 to a player with a $15 million salary (or more). But at the same time, isn’t that exactly what we’re trying to show?  Which player provided the most production to his team for the least expense. Thanks to the many e-mails I received, I understand that in doing this comparison, we want to see how much better the players are than the league average or above a possible replacement player. That’s what teams want, a player who is better than a regular option to them.

(Seth’s Note - I definitely don’t claim to be a SABRmetrician. I believe that hunches and gut feelings should be used by managers at times. I think that a player such as Juan Pierre, whose statistics are very near average, can still be valuable. That said, I find statistics incredibly fascinating. I think that they are very important at this time of the year, in the offseason, when teams are trying to better themselves. Teams that don’t have the economic means to go after the big name free agents are looking for a cheaper option who can provide them the most “Bang for the Buck.”)

So, today, I will be updating the Bang for the Buck report, using some other statistical metrics. For each of the four metrics used, I will briefly explain the definition of the stat and then give the top dozen players using their salaries. Just for fun, I will also show the bottom dozen, those who provide the Least Bang for the Buck.

WIN SHARES

As someone pointed out to me, what’s more ‘banging’ than Wins? That is the goal of the game. Win Shares is a statistic that Bill James developed to help determine how much impact a player has on his team winning a game. I actually have his book titled “Win Shares” . I won’t give the mathematics involved in calculating this (click here if you want to read about it), but as Baseball Graphs explains, “The basic idea of Win Shares is to credit individual players with the number of wins they contributed to the team, based on virtually everything they did while on the field: batting, pitching and fielding, even a little baserunning.” This number has also been adjusted to the ballpark. Albert Pujols led all of baseball this year with 41.14 Win Shares. Barry Bonds was second at 39.21. Gary Sheffield, Todd Helton and Alex Rodriguez rounded out the Top 5. So, which players provided the most (and least) “Wins” per million dollars?

These charts make sense. Those who provided the most Wins per million dollars in salary are all young players, not even arbitration eligible, making under $500,000. They also all hit the ball well, including All Stars Marcus Giles and Vernon Wells, AL Rookie of the Year Angel Berroa, Scott Podsednik, the NL runner-up to Rookie of the Year and Twins catcher AJ Pierzynski. Those who provided their teams the least “Wins” per dollars are players who either missed some playing time due to injury or really played horribly who happen to make a lot of money. Money I’m sure their teams would have loved to have used on other players.

RARP - Runs Above Replacement Player

This statistic is pretty self-explanatory, isn’t it? It measures how many more runs the player accounted for than an average replacement player at that position. (a replacement player is meant to be approximately equal to the lowest-ranking player at that position) Essentially, it’s saying how better off a team is having the player play, than having a backup play instead. The Major League leader in this category for 2003 was Barry Bonds and 106.5. Albert Pujols, at 90.8, came in a distant second. Alex Rodriguez, Todd Helton and Manny Ramirez finished out the Top 5. But did any of them rank in either of our lists?

Some of the names on the Highest RARP per million list are looking pretty similar to the first list. Giles, Huff and Podsednik are back in the Top 5. Albert Pujols, despite having twice the salary of anyone else on that list makes an appearance. That’s saying something! On the other end of the spectrum, we start seeing the players with the negative RARP. Hmmm… that means that they are worse than a backup level. That’s not good! That said, I really like Carl Crawford’s and Endy Chavez’s potential. The rest, may never hit much, but a couple (Dodgers double-play combo, Cesar Izturis and Alex Cora) can play some really good defense!

VORP - Value Over Replacement Player

A very similar report that factors in more “stuff”. But the concept is very similar. It shows how much better a player is than a potential replacement. These number are all park adjusted, so that the numbers of players in hitters ballparks aren’t inflated (A-Rod, Helton).  To be fair, let’s look at the Top 5 in VORP in the league, regardless of salary. Barry Bonds leads the way at 114.6. Pujols is again second with 97.3. Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield and Javy Lopez round out the top 5. Will our list of VORP per million look any different?

Hmmm… am I detecting a pattern at the top of this list? Marcus Giles. Aubrey Huff. Podsednik. Bradley. Wells. And Pujols makes this list as well! By the way, Alex Cintron had a great year down in Arizona and I bet a lot of good baseball fans don’t know who he is. Some of the players on the Low List are becoming repetitive. Santiago, Chavez, Crawford, Izturis. But then to see Jose Hernandez and Pat Burrell on this list tell you just how bad their seasons were.

RCAA - Runs Created Above Average -

From Lee Sinnis’ interview on Rich’s Weekend Baseball Beat earlier this week, Lee was asked about RCAA. He called RCAA the single most important offensive statistic because... “a hitter's job is to produce runs for his team and RCAA measures the amount of runs a player added or cost his team.” That’s impossible to dispute when looking at it that way. Later, he briefly explained ‘Above Average’:

it is the level that separates whether a player helps his team win or lose games. If, for example, the league averages 4.81 runs per team per game, like the 2002 AL, it means that a team has to score more than 4.81 runs to win the average game. So, a player who has 4.81 runs created per 27 outs is performing at an average level, not pushing his team more towards winning or losing, while 4.82 and above moves his team more towards winning and 4.80 and below moves them more towards losing.

Be sure to sign up for Lee’s Around The Majors reports  or purchase his Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia. It’s the most exciting e-mail I receive every day!

So, which player helped his team score the most runs in 2003? As would be expected, Barry Bonds led the league with an RCAA of 115. Albert Pujols was second again at 101. From there, the next high mark was Todd Helton at 80, followed by Gary Sheffield (72) and Carlos Delgado (69). Did Pujols break the Top Dozen in RCAA per million dollars though?

Well, Albert Pujols moved up to #2 on the list, but there just doesn’t seem to be any budging Marcus Giles from the top of the list. But again, the names are essentially the same in the top dozen. They’re all players who had great years and haven’t played long enough to reach arbitration. Hey, another Twins player sighting. Oh, it’s Luis Rivas, and it’s on the Lowest RCAA per million list. Sorry!

2003’s MOST PRODUCTIVE PLAYERS

So, what do we do with these numbers? How do we come up with a conclusive answer to who provided his team with the most Bang for the Buck. OK, the fact that Marcus Giles was #1 on all four lists makes it pretty clear who will be #1, but who follows him? How do we calculate that? Well, my solution was to combine these four metrics into just one. Because they all have different ceilings, I felt it necessary to put all four on level ground. So, what I did was took the highest rated player for each statistic (Bonds or Pujols) and changed their number to 1,000. For example, Barry Bonds led the majors with an RCAA of 115. So, I took 115 times (8.69565217391304) to take it to 1,000. I then took every players RCAA times that same number. Then I repeated that process for each of the four metrics. That way, all four statistics carry equal weight.

So, are you curious who the Top Dozen Most Productive Players in the Big Leagues were in 2003? I mean, regardless of what a player is paid, you want them to produce. The guys on this list have done the job for long enough that they deserve the big money. They also continued to produce! (Because the highest possible “score” a player could get is 4000, I titled the column Prod4000):

Barry Bonds was almost a perfect 4000. Albert Pujols came in a close second. Clearly those two were the top two players in the league as you can see the drop from Pujols down to 3^rd place Alex Rodriguez. That’s how head-and-shoulders better they performed this season than anyone else. Oh, and there is our friend, Marcus Giles, he of the $316,500, hanging out with the multi-multi-millionairres.

And OK, just for fun (and because I am a jerk), here are the Least Productive Hitters of 2003:

Jermaine Dye was probably still recovering from his leg injury. Jose Hernandez was very disappointing, especially considering he started the season in Colorado. Paul Konerko was coming off an All-Star season, his third consecutive great season, so I don’t think anyone saw his struggles coming. Jeff Cirillo has been disappointing for awhile now. There are a couple of catchers (who must be great defensively!).

FINAL RESULTS

OK, you want to know which player provided his team with the most Bang for the Buck. I think based on the above, the answer is pretty clear. But who else finished near the top of that list? (This is the above equation, per million dollars)

Most Bang For the Buck - 2003

BRAVES 2B MARCUS GILES

*2003 SETHSPEAKS MOST BANG FOR THE BUCK WINNER

Marcus Giles really put together a surprising first full season with the Braves. He had played in 68 games for Atlanta in 2001 and 2002, but jumped to 145 games in 2003. Here are some of his numbers; .316/.390/.526 with 49 doubles, 21 home runs and 69 RBI. He hit second in the potent Braves lineup which helped him to score 101 runs.

Will Giles get better? Who’s to say? I mean, he will still be just 25 years old on Opening Day in 2004. His brother, Brian Giles, is one of the best hitters in baseball, and has been over the past five seasons. Maybe we’re just beginning to see the full capabilities of Marcus Giles. My guess is that he may never duplicate his 2003 season, but if he can come close and play at that level, the Braves will be very happy with that!

I think it’s pretty clear that this type of report can be valuable to a team in the offseason, but we do have to remember that players earn their money by being productive. The players at the top of this list will really have to continue to improve to ever get close to the point where the big money players like Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Carlos Delgado and Barry Bonds are. When looking this way, it does show just how well Albert Pujols  performed this year.

One thing I found interesting is that, although Barry Bonds’ $15 million 2003 contract was 8^th highest in this analysis, he finished with the 105^th Best Bang for the Buck, out of 215 players ranked.  No one who made under $8 million ranked higher than him.  That almost speaks volumes for how strong of a season he had.

And let me point out, this analysis, in no way says that the Cardinals should trade Albert Pujols straight up for Marcus Giles. What it does say is that Albert Pujols should get a HUGE raise over his current $900,000 contract!

OK, there you have it. The Bang for the Buck article I’ve been discussing for awhile now. I know I got a lot of great responses after the first one. I’d love to hear your thoughts after this one. Is it more fair? Is something still missing? Is there any way to account for the salary discrepancies without taking away the “for the buck” part of the title? I really want to know what you think. Thank you very much for taking the time to stop by and read this article. Please e-mail me any questions, comments, or suggestions. If you have any question on how a particular player ranked, I’d be happy to answer them as well.

HOW DID THE TWINS FARE?

By the way, this is primarily a Twins site, because I’m primarily a Twins fan. So, here is a rundown of how the nine Twins with the most plate appearances faired. We saw AJ Pierzynski and Luis Rivas make a couple of the lists; how close were the others?

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS

Well, after two terrible weeks in a row, it is time to turn this thing around. You’ll notice that a lot of our picks are quite similar. I do have to say that I fill out my picks before I look at any of the others. Based on my results, maybe I shouldn’t. Be sure to check the FB Picks page  for current standings. And, as always be sure to check out the blogs of the other panelists.

SUMMARY:

Houston @ Buffalo - Bills 8-1

St. Louis @ Chicago - Rams 9-0

Kansas City @ Cincinnati - Chiefs 8-1

Arizona @ Cleveland - Browns 8-1

Jacksonville @ Tennessee - Titans 9-0

Baltimore @ Miami - Dolphins 8-1

Atlanta @ New Orleans - Saints 9-0

NY Giants @ Philadelphia - Eagles 9-0

Washington @ Carolina - Panthers 9-0

NY Jets @ Indianapolis - Colts 9-0

San Diego @ Denver - Broncos 9-0

Minnesota @ Oakland - Vikings 9-0

Detroit @ Seattle - Seahawks 9-0

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay - Buccaneers 8-1

Dallas @ New England - Patriots 9-0

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco - 49ers 9-0

 

Apparently the games were pretty easy to pick this week, if you go by the fact that we only have 5 different picks between all nine of us, even though we’re back at 16 games this week because the bye weeks are over.
 

TIMBERWOLVES BEAT BULLS

The Wolves needed a late three-pointer by Latrell Sprewell to send the game to overtime, but they came out victorious. The Bulls Jalen Rose missed a free throw that would have given the Bulls a four point lead, allowing the Sprewell make to send it to overtime. Spree led the way for the Wolves with 27 points, 8 rebounds and 3 steals. Kevin Garnett scored 21 points and grabbed 19 rebounds. Sam Cassell added 17 points and 5 assists. The Wolves move to 5-4 on the season, while the Bulls drop to 4-6. Tonight the Wolves host Utah, who beat the Wolves by five in Salt Lake City 10 days ago. That was the game that Garnett got two quick technical fouls and was ejected from the game.
 

RANDOM NOTES

First, on Wednesday, the Best Player I Ever Played Ball With, Chris Coste, just signed a minor league contract with the Milwaukee Brewers. He’s got a 2^nd book coming out shortly, so be sure to check out this link to order it.

Twins Prospect Brian Wolfe has entered a new journal entry over at MLB.com. He discussed the passing of Reds OF Dernell Stenson, who was playing down in the Arizona Fall League at the time.

Minnesota native, Ben Hendrickson is also playing in the Fall League. He too is entering a journal. Here is his most recent entry. Also check last week’s entry where he discusses some hunting adventures.

Speaking of entries, a few times this year, Indians rookie, Jody Gerut took the time to write a weblog  for cleveland.com. His posting yesterday talks about his rookie season, and gives his thoughts on the Matsui Rookie of the Year controversy. It’s well written and a good read, even comical at times.

And finally, I’ve written briefly about Curtis Pride on this site. Be sure to check out his website. It involved the Together with Pride organization. The organization is running a celebrity wiffle ball game down in Florida. Proceeds from the game and through the website will help provide hearing aids to kids. Remember, Curtis Pride is almost completely deaf. It didn’t stop him from becoming a big league ballplayer, and now he’s helping kids fulfill their dreams too. So, stop by the site  and check it out. Also, check out how you can help the Twins foundation .

Well, that’s it for today, and this week! Thanks again for stopping by. I hope the feature article was interesting and maybe even informative. Again, if you have any questions or comments, please let me know. Send me an e-mail! Thanks!

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