Monday November 10, 2003
 

RANDOM WEEKEND RAMBLINGS

                Gophers Football Win Again

                Timberwolves Win Two in Florida

                Lebron and Carmelo

                Team USA Strikes Out

                Twins in Arizona

                John Gagliardi Breaks Record

                Vikings Lose… Again

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS

Let the free agent frenzy begin…

Happy Monday to everyone! I have to be honest, today’s entry may be a little shorter than usual (which, I know for some of you, is a good thing, right?). I spent a lot of time this weekend researching and putting a spreadsheet together for my follow-up article on “Bang for the Buck”, which I will probably post on Friday.

Today is the first day that teams can begin to discuss dollars with free agents. Until today, only the player’s previous team could discuss money with the player. The General Managers meetings will be starting soon. There will probably be some trades. There may be a couple of small free agent signings. I wouldn’t expect the big free agents (Vlad Guerrero, Gary Sheffield, etc.) to sign for another month or so.

I read this in Peter Gammons column yesterday:

Paul Konerko, Jim Edmonds, J.D. Drew, Odalis Perez, Eric Milton, Mike Lowell, Derrek Lee, A.J. Burnett and Freddy Garcia are all players whose names -- and contracts -- will be mentioned.

Eric Milton? That was my first reaction, but the more I think about it, the more sense it makes. I think the Twins are going to try to trade All-Star catcher AJ Pierzynski this week, and I think that he will be traded to the San Diego Padres. The Padres have put together a strong lineup, but now must find some pitching. The Twins want to keep their payroll down. Eric Milton is due about $9 million for the 2004 season, before he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. That’s a big chunk of change. AJ Pierzynski will still be relatively cheap next season, so the Twins wouldn’t have to trade him, but now is also when they could probably get the most value in return for him. I think the Twins management is ready to give Joe Mauer the starting catcher job next season, and I have no problem with that. So, the Twins are certainly in a spot to request a lot, including asking the Padres (or other teams) to take on Eric Milton’s contract in any trade. But Milton’s knee seemed fully recovered, and his arm will only regain its strength. $9 million may not be a bad deal for the Padres because Milton could definitely help them next season. That would also mean that the Twins could request more in return. I would hope they would ask for SS Khalil Greene, 2B Josh Barfield and SP Dennis Tankersley in return. Although the odds of getting either Greene or Barfield are pretty low, so getting both is not likely.

Then, later in Gammons column, he had this note:

Twins GM Terry Ryan says he still doesn't know which of the free agents (Stewart, LaTroy Hawkins, Everyday Eddie Guardado) he can re-sign, or which players he may have to non-tender. "It helps that we have some very good young players who should be ready to step in and help us, like Mike Cuddyer, Mike Restovich, Justin Morneau and Grant Balfour," said Ryan, "but we'd like to keep as much of the team together as possible." When asked if Joe Mauer is ready, Ryan deflects the conversation. "I don't like to talk about Mauer because we have an All-Star catcher named A.J. Pierzynski who's a huge part of the team and our success."

Hmmm… My take? Just some posturing, to up the ante for AJ. First, Mr. Ryan also knows that, aside from the four prospects he mentioned, he’s also got Mike Ryan, JD Durbin, Jesse Crain, Jason Kubel, Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford, Terry Tiffee and other guys who, given the chance, could be just as good, if not better than their current players, and that’s exciting to me. In other words, I think that Terry Ryan could be quite busy at this week’s General Manager’s meetings.

Each Monday, I will be updating my Top 3 free agents at each position. Here is my first installment:

POSITION PLAYERS

Catchers - Ivan Rodriguez proved pretty wise last year signing a one year deal with Florida. He stayed healthy, and he played great. He probably made even more money with his play in the post season. Javy Lopez lost 25 pounds and put up some great numbers. If he keeps himself in shape, he should be worth a strong contract. If he is willing (and able) to play 1B a few games a year to help save on his legs, that would make him even more valuable in my mind. Santiago has to be about done, again, but you never know. He might be a decent signee. Aside from those three, there are just backup type catchers, like Brent Mayne, Brad Ausmus and Todd Pratt.

Designated Hitter - Rafael Palmiero is the best option. He did have a very good year last year. I can’t imagine that any team would give him more than a one-year contract. And, to be honest, I don’t know why a team would want him. He can’t play defense, so that takes away National League teams. The fact that he turned down trades to winning teams with a chance to play in a pennant race. I think that speaks volumes. There aren’t really any other great DH options out there. Al Martin is one of those players who just sticks around, playing whatever role is asked of him. Ben Grieve has done very little since his years in Oakland, but he’s still young and given a fresh start with little pressure could be just what he needs. Andres Gallaragga is a good team player and could play a small role for some teams.

First Base - This is a really bad group of free agents. I have Travis Lee at the top of my list just because he is still somewhat young and has been productive in the past. Should he end up in the right place, he could do well. JT Snow has the glove, and although he’s never been a great hitter, he has played in a lot of big games. I only put Fred McGriff in this high because of his 500^th home run chase. He will go into the 2004 season with 491 home runs, and barring injury, McGriff should be able to hit nine homers. Of course, he shouldn’t sign in the tough hitter’s parks like in San Francisco or Los Angeles. Scott Spezio plays a good first base, but he can also play 2B or 3B well, so he has some value.

Second Base - Luis Castillo is the head of this class. He just won a Gold Glove. Had a bad year in stolen base percentage, but his speed is an asset to him and his potential team. Todd Walker isn’t liked by Twins fans, but he can hit. He’s terrible defensively, and can’t hit lefties very well, but he’s next on this list. Fernando Vina is coming off an injury-filled 2003 season, but he has been a spark to his teams in the past. He is a risk, but he definitely could fit into the top of the order for some winning teams. Roberto Alomar is in the mix too. Someone will pay too much for his name.

Third Base - A terrible class of third basemen. Joe Randa has always been solid, but is certainly not spectacular. I don’t want him to be a Twin because Bert Blyleven would point out his “The Joker” smile thingy every time he came to the plate! Vinny Castilla had a solid comeback season with the Braves. He had been bad ever since he left Colorado. Tony Batista is good for about 30 homers a season. However, he does pretty much nothing when he doesn’t homer, and plays an absolutely terrible third base. Robin Ventura could sign somewhere as a chemistry-type player.

Shortstop - Aside from the big two outfielders, Miguel Tejada is probably the best free agent out there. You will probably read in a number of other blogs that Tejada shouldn’t have won the 2002 AL MVP Award. I disagree, but that’s old news, and it shouldn’t affect the opinion that Tejada is a very good offensive and defensive shortstop. Kazua Matsui is a free agent from Japan. It is believed that he will be an above-average shortstop. I am sure that whoever gets him will probably pay too much. Rumor has it that he wants to play with the Twins because he wants to team wit h Torii Hunter. Rich Aurilia had a great season three seasons ago, but he has been a disappointment since then. He could come cheap and be a bargain for some team.

Left Field - Shannon Stewart made himself a lot of extra money because of his trade to the Twins. He’s always been a very good, very consistent hitter. But his spark to the Twins lineup was noticed around the league. I’m not saying he’ll get a big raise from his $6 million 2003 contract, but he should receive a similar deal, maybe for three or four years (which, with the “collusion”, or whatever you want to call it, is pretty good). Raul Ibanez can hit, at least he can hit righties. Not good defensively, his offensive production the past two seasons have given him some value. I put Jose Cruz, Jr, as a left fielder. He had a very strong start this season, and (for some reason) won his first Gold Glove Award this year. He hit well at Pac Bell (now SBC), so he can still hit, so if he goes to the right situation, he could be a good signing. Reggie Sanders needs a new team. He’s played the past six seasons for six different teams, without being traded!

Center Field - Another fairly weak position. Mike Cameron is a great defensive center fielder.  No, I can honestly say I don’t think he’s as good as Torii Hunter, but he’s right there behind him. He also has shown some flashes of being able to hit. Kenny Lofton is old and he just keeps signing one year deals. That will be the case again. But the thing is, he keeps going to winning teams. Any correlation? Probably! Carl Everett is a bad outfielder. No range, no arm.  A total liability. But he can hit, and that will probably earn him more money than he’s worth.

Right Field - This is the big position for free agents this season! Vlad Guerrero is the big catch though. He’s put up such amazing numbers in all of his years. He will be just 28 years old when spring training begins, making a long-term deal with him make sense. However, he has had back injuries the past two years, which is the only question mark surrounding Guerrero. Gary Sheffield is incredibly consistent and consistently good. He has been a star for a dozen years. I’d venture to say he’s one of the most underrated players in the past twenty years. He will soon turn 35 years old, so this is probably his final big contract, so you can’t blame him for cashing in. Someone will give him 3 or 4 years. The Yankees will get one of the two players. Jose Guillen proved that when he plays, he can be very good. He’s quite a bit cheaper than the big two, but does come with a reputation. Juan Gonzalez might get some money. Huge risk based on his injuries and his lack of interest in playing. He’s a head case with a huge upside.

PITCHERS

Starting Pitchers - I think we all figure that Pettitte will stay with the Yankees. The assumption is that Kevin Millwood will go back to the Braves. Colon will probably go to the Yankees or Red Sox. Where it gets interesting is with Greg Maddux. He probably will get a three year deal from some team and that will be the selling point to get him to sign. He will win his 300^th career win next year, barring injury. I think he should stay in Atlanta, with that offense, and continue his 15 wins per season streak. San Diego has built up a very strong offense, so that would make sense too. Escobar will probably stay in Toronto, and hopefully he will remain a starter. Ponson will get too much money for a guy with a career record of 58-65. That said, Jason Schmidt was just56-52 when he re-signed with the Giants before the 2002 season. That said, Ponson is no Jason Schmidt. Miguel Batista has been successful in whatever role he has had with the Arizona Diamondbacks. I saw John Thomson pitch a few times for the Texas Rangers last season. He has good stuff. I think if he pitches in a pitcher’s park, instead of The Ballpark in Arlington, he could be the 2004 version of Esteban Loaiza. Jeff Suppan, John Burkett, Kenny Rogers and Cory Lidle could all be cheap acquisitions that could benefit the right team.

Left-Handed Relievers - Arthur Rhodes throws hard and is intimidating. He is getting older, so I don’t know that I would give him too much money. Eddie Guardado saved a lot of games the last 2+ years in Minnesota. He’s not intimidating at all, but he just gets people out. He will want closers money, and depending on where he goes, he could close or be a great setup guy. I think a guy like Terry Mulholland can be very valuable to a team. He can get one batter out, but he can also pitch a few innings, or even start, if necessary. Jeff Fassero started a lot of games this season for St. Louis. He’s definitely not a starter, however, I think he can be a very solid lefty out of the pen. He has closed in the past, and been a one-batter guy too.

Right-Handed Relievers - The trade of Keith Foulke from the White Sox to the A’s after the 2002 season was a great deal for the A’s and for Foulke. He became the best closer in the AL and could earn some money this winter! LaTroy Hawkins has been absolutely dominant the past two seasons since moving back to a setup role. He will probably make closers money, and could be a closer depending on where he goes. So many think he doesn’t have the mentality to be a closer. My opinion is that he just wasn’t a good pitcher when he was a closer. Since Rick Anderson came in as the Twins pitching coach and got The Hawk to just throw strikes and control his fastball, he has added a great curveball and become a great pitcher. So, yes, I do think LaTroy Hawkins could be a great closer now. Ugueth Urbina has been a solid closer for a few years now. He will probably end up as the closer for an American League team. Shigetoshi Hasegawa was an All-Star in 2003 and definitely deserved it. I think he’ll stay in Seattle. Mike Timlin came back strong this season, actually getting stronger as the season continued, and especially in the post-season. Tom Gordon showed flashes of brilliance with the White Sox. He throws 97 mph with the curveball that made him great. Tim Worrell did a great job of closing for the Giants this season with the injury to Robb Nen. He had been a very good setup man for a long time before that. Curtis Leskanic throws hard, and I think that he’ll be even stronger next season, another year removed from arm problems.

So there you have it. My thoughts on the top free agents available this offseason. This is will continue to change as some of these guys sign with their current or new teams. Other veterans will be non-tendered over the next month and become free agents. What do you think? Who should the Twins pick up? What positions should they focus on? We know that they won’t go after the big names, but there could be some bit pieces that could definitely help. What are they? E-mail me your thoughts. I hope to do some analysis throughout the offseason, giving my opinions on the transactions.

RANDOM WEEKEND RAMBLINGS

If you have any questions or comments on anything you read below, be sure to e-mail me.

Gophers Football -

I am a hypocrite. I think it’s time for me to just admit that. I encourage people not to be so tough on the Wolves, especially with their postseason record. I love the Twins, regardless of their record, or my second-guessing. I watch the Vikings win or lose. I encourage readers to take information they read or see and develop their own opinions on a team. Yes, I type my opinions on here, but not to change your mind, just to provide you with another angle to help you develop your opinions. I’m definitely not saying that all my opinions or suggestions are correct. They’re just my opinions. I like being right, but I can’t claim to always be right.

I have been really negative about the Gophers football program all season, about Glen Mason and also about their non-conference schedule. We read all summer from the Twin Cities media that the Gophers would be contending for a Big Ten title and even a National Championship. I think that I allowed the continued praise of the Gophers football program affect my thinking. I said all along that their weak schedule would hide the fact that they aren’t a top-of-the-league team. And, although I’m completely right about everything that I’ve written about the Gophers football team, I left out one fairly important bit of information - The Gophers Football team is pretty good. Yes, you read that correctly. They are now 9-2. It’s the first time they’ve won 9 games in almost 100 years. Their only losses were to Michigan and Michigan St., both games they could have won. They’re close to being that good. Marion Barber III would be a Heisman candidate if he weren’t splitting carries with freshman Laurence Maroney, who is an incredible talent as well. Thomas Tapeh is a great fullback. Asad Abdul-Khaliq is playing incredibly well with little acclaim. The offensive line is very good. Aaron Hosack leads a good core of receivers. Clearly the team needs to get better on defense to ever take this success to that next level.

This weekend, the Gophers beat the neighboring Wisconsin Badgers on a last second (literally) field goal to take back Paul Bunyan’s ax. Those are the types of games that the Gophers had always found a way to lose in previous seasons. Next week, the Gophers finish their regular season with a game against Iowa. If they can manage to get a win there, they could get a bid to a legitimate bowl. Of course, it won’t be a BCS Bowl, but it will also not be the kind of bowl that we are used to watching the Gophers play in. They are frequently on ESPN and a real New Years Day bowl would be great for recruiting, and the future of Gophers football.

Timberwolves Basketball -

The Timberwolves took a trip that many Minnesotans would love to take this time of year, a trip to Florida. Of course, their trip was of a business nature. Friday night, the Wolves took on, and completely dominated the Orlando Magic, winning the game 100-71. All-Star Tracy McGrady (easily a Top 5 NBA Player) did not score about until half way through the third quarter, and he finished with just four points on 2-10 shooting. Tyronn Lue, yes, that Tyronn Lue, the point guard from Nebraska, led the Magic with 25 points and 7 assists. The Wolves were led in scoring by Latrell Sprewell with 22. Kevin Garnett added 21 points, 17 rebounds and 5 assists. Fred Hoiberg scored 12. Mark Madsen added 11 points and 7 boards. Sam Cassell scored 11 points and dished out 9 assists.

So then Saturday night, the Wolves headed further south, to Miami, to take on the Heat. This game was at least close until halftime, when the Heat held a 41-40 lead. The Wolves outscored the Heat 28-16 in the 3^rd quarter and went on to a nine point (88-79) win over the still winless Heat. Miami was led by Eddie Jones with 21 points. My choice for NBA Rookie of the Year, Dwayne Wade, added 19 points and 5 assists. Kevin Garnett led the Wolves with 25 points, 17 rebounds, 5 blocks and 4 assists. Sam Cassell added 23 points, 6 assists and 5 boards. Latrell Sprewell added 15 points and 5 boards. Gary Trent and Fred Hoiberg were also in double figures in points.

Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony updates -

                Saturday night, James and the Cleveland Cavaliers won their first game of the season, 111-98, over the Washington Wizards. James contributed mightily to the win, scoring 17 points, grabbing 8 rebounds and distributing 9 assists. Ricky Davis (8 boards, 5 assists) and Darius Miles (6 boards, 7 dimes) each scored 26 points for the Cavs.

                Friday night, the Cavs lost a one-point game (90-91) to the Indiana Pacers. James actually missed a shot as time was running out. Lebron scored 23 points and had 5 boards. Ricky Davis was a point (of all things) from a triple-double. He scored 9 points, but had 12 rebounds and 10 assists. The Cavaliers are now 1-5.

                Carmelo Anthony scored 30 points in Denver’s two-point overtime loss to the LA Clippers on Friday night.  He scored 11 points in overtime, including three 3-pointers. Last night, the Nuggets lost a low scoring, 89-76 game to the Toronto Raptors. Carmelo scored 19 points. The Nuggets dropped to 3-4 overall.

Team USA -

                Team USA lost 2-1 to Mexico in the Quarterfinals of the Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Panama on Friday. Tommy Lasorda commented that “``It's a shock and a disgrace that the Americans won't be represented in the Olympics.” First, Tommy Lasorda needs to shut up. I wonder if anyone has ever told him that. Just because he was the manager of the 2000 Olympic team doesn’t make him some expert on the 2003 team. It is crazy that the USA won’t be represented in baseball in the Athens Olympics next summer.

                That said, the timing of Lasorda’s comments was really unnecessary, and in my mind, directed to the players and the coaching staff of the team. That’s not fair. It’s a tournament and Team USA just gave up one more run than they scored in a game. It’s really that simple. It doesn’t mean that the team isn’t one of the top two in the tournament, just that they lost at a bad time.

                The problem, in my mind, is that just two teams from this part of the globe are in the Olympics baseball tournament. The format of this tournament is just crazy to me. It’s sad that with the strength of baseball in countries like the USA, Cuba, Venezuela, Canada, the Dominican Republic and Mexico, that just two of those countries can compete in the Olympics. That’s the only thing that can be questioned here; not the choice of players on the team, or the efforts of the players, or the coaches.

Twins in the Arizona Fall League

Here are the updated stats of the Twins prospects playing in the Arizona Fall League.

Jake Mauer might be playing well enough to legitimately be considered a future utility player for the Twins, and not just Joe Mauer’s brother. Terry Tiffee continues to split time between 1B and 3B and play almost daily. Rob Bowen is really hitting well too.

Henry Bonilla is doing a great job as a starter. Neshek’s numbers are a bit skewed because he had one really bad appearance that makes his ERA look bad. Brian Wolfe is doing a good job out of the bullpen.

John Gagliardi -

                St. Johns football coach John Gagliardi won his 409^th career game with a win in Collegeville over Bethel. The win brought the Johnnies to 10-0 on the season. They’re also ranked #2 in the country in NCAA Division III. Gagliardi is getting some attention on ESPN and other networks for passing Grambling’s Eddie Robinson on the all-time wins list for college coaches. St. Johns is a perennial powerhouse in the MIAC conference and in Division III football. Congratulations Mr. Gagliardi!

Vikings Lose Again -

                I predicted on Friday that Ladanian Tomlinson would run all over the Vikings defense in an attempt to slow down the game and keep the Chargers in the game, hoping to pull out a win at the end. I didn’t account for just how well Doug Flutie would play. It was anything but low scoring. Both teams accounted for over 450 total yards of offense. But the Vikings defense wasn’t able to stop the Chargers offense the whole day. That’s three straight pathetic performances by the defense. They aren’t getting any pressure on the quarterbacks. They aren’t creating turnovers. They aren’t stopping any ground games. Tomlinson had a 73 yard TD and another 55 yard gain. Doug Flutie just carved through the team.

                I was really happy in the first half that Brian Baldinger was the color analyst for the game because he does some TV for the Vikings during the preseason. He was actually being very nice to the Vikings. In the second half though, he just continued the myth that Randy Moss takes plays off, and didn’t do enough for his team. First - the offense scored 28 points. That should be enough to win a game in the NFL, especially against a team with just one win going into the game and a 41 year old quarterback making his first start in two seasons. Second - Clearly on the last Vikings play, the interception, Randy Moss was in to block, which makes no sense. That’s not on Moss, that’s the play calling.

                So, don’t blame the offense, they did their jobs. Culpepper threw for 370 yards and 4 TDs. You can’t argue with that. I do wish he would run more frequently though.

NFL “EXPERTS” PICKS

Well, I figured that I couldn’t do any worse than I did last week. I was hoping for a big comeback week. It didn’t happen. I’m sitting at 5-8 on the week so far. If the Packers lose tonight, I will have the same record as last week. Last week, I could at least say that everyone did poorly. This week, we have seven with winning records. So, it’s official, I am just getting dumber and dumber! Be sure to check out our FB Picks Page, where you can see standings (will be updated Tuesday) and bios and links for our “experts”. Here are this week’s picks, going into tonight’s Packers/Eagles contest:

Maybe next week will be better?  I can hope.

OK, that’s it for today. Be sure to e-mail me if you have any comments or questions on anything you’ve read today. I’ll be sure to get back to you.  Have a great week!

Oh, and yes, this was going to be short, right? Sorry ‘bout that! I hope you don’t mind!

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