Wednesday, November 8, 2006
Free Agents: The Starters
Hello All!
Over the next couple of days, I would like to go through the free agent list and predict where the players may go and for how much. Like any prediction or projection, it is a glorified guess, but I would like to put my guesses out there and compare my lists to the "experts" picks and see how I do. My information comes from things I've read or heard, but mainly it is just me, trying to think like a GM and trying to place players with teams that make sense. I'd love to hear your thoughts on any of them, so let's get some Comments going.
Today, I will start with the starting pitchers. There are 38 starters to discuss who have signed up for free agency so far (note- they have until Saturday to do so). I am going to name the players, their former team, a couple of comments on them, my projection for where they will end up and for the contract they could receive. Finally, I will tie this into the Twins, since this is a Twins blog, and discuss if that player makes any sense for the team. Tomorrow, I will be back with the relievers, and from there, I will get to the hitters. Let's get it started:
Left-Handed Starting Pitchers (8)
Bruce Chen
2006 Team - Baltimore Orioles
Comments - After bouncing all over the map, the now 29 year old Panamanian found a home in Baltimore. He came up late in 2004 and made seven great starts. He then went 13-10 with a 3.83 ERA in 32 starts in 2005. And then last year, he went 0-7 with a 6.93 ERA. So, which will you get? Could he pitch out of the bullpen as a lefty specialist? Well, righties bashed him, but lefties hit him even harder.
2007 Projection - Washington Nationals
Contract - Minor League
Twins Interest? - None, although his resume heading into the 2007 season is no worse than Dennys Reyes's was heading into 2006.
Shawn Estes
2006 Team - San Diego Padres
Comments - The 33 year old Estes pitched in one game in April for the Padres. He went on the DL and in June, he underwent elbow surgery (Tommy John). He is expected to miss at least the start of the 2007 season.
2007 Projection - Colorado Rockies, or retired.
Contract - Minor League
Twins Interest? - None.
Ted Lilly
2006 Team - Toronto Blue Jays
Comments - Lilly will turn 31 in January. Although he has pitched in 32 games in three of the last four seasons, he has never topped 200 innings. His 4.60 career ERA is average at best. Lilly deserves a couple of years, but any big money is just too much. That said, with the lack of left-handed starters on the market, Lilly is a good candidate to get overpaid.
2007 Projection - San Diego Padres
Contract - 2 years, $12 million
Twins Interest? - I don't think so. He's another very hittable pitcher. He also walks too many for the Twins liking.
Mark Mulder
2006 Team - St. Louis Cardinals
Comments - I always thought that Mulder was the best of the Big 3 Oakland starters. Hudson has struggled. Zito returned to form. Mulder has really struggled since coming to the National League, which is very surprising. But, after really struggling and missing time, Mulder finally had surgery. Without injury, he likely would have cashed in big time this offseason. But now there are plenty of questions marks. Before 2006, Mulder had thrown at least 200 innings in four of the past five years.
2007 Projection - San Diego Padres
Contract - 4 years, $43 million
Twins Interest? - Probably, but again, too much money to go with the arm/shoulder questions.
Andy Pettitte
2006 Team - Houston Astros
Comments - There is a lot of talk that Pettitte might retire. He has had such a great career, and it seems like he has been around forever, but he is just 34 years old and could have another five to eight years left in him. Pettitte has averaged 34 starts and 218.1 innings. He had an amazing 2005 with a 2.39 ERA. Last year, he struggled at the start but still ended up with a 4.20 ERA and 14 wins. He has 186 career wins. Assuming he wants to come back, Pettitte could make a lot of money. His return could be linked to that of Roger Clemens.
2007 Projection - New York Yankees
Contract - 1 year, $14 million
Twins Interest? - I would love to have Pettitte on the roster, but again, too much money.
Mark Redman
2006 Team - Kansas City Royals
Comments - Redman was an All-Star last year... and if that means anything to a GM, they shouldn't be a GM. He wasn't very good. The former Twins first-round pick will be 33 before the season starts. Last year, he was 11-10 with a 5.71 ERA.
2007 Projection - Milwaukee Brewers
Contract - 1 year, $2.9 million
Twins Interest? - None. Redman is left-handed, a veteran, and can breathe, but he is a left-handed version of Carlos Silva, and the Twins don't need that.
Randy Wolf
2006 Team - Philadelphia Phillies
Comments - Wolf got a nice contract previously based on three very solid years between 2000 and 2003. After the deal, he has really fought injuries and in 2005, he had Tommy John surgery. He worked his way back and made 12 starts at the end of the season for the Phillies. He was an above average pitcher before the injuries, so if we can make an assumption that he is healthy again, he is only 30 and could be very good again.
2007 Projection - Philadelphia Phillies
Contract - 1 year, $3 million with an option for 2008
Actual - Dodgers, 1 year, $8 million with an option for 2008
Twins Interest? - I think that the Twins should strongly consider Wolf at this price.
Barry Zito
2006 Team - Oakland A's
Comments - The 28 year old has made at least 34 starts each of the last six seasons, and he has thrown at least 213 innings. He has shown to be the definition of durable. The 2002 AL Cy Young Award winner had a bad year in 2004, but he has been well above average every other year. I don't think he is as good as Roy Oswalt, but GMs would be less worried about Zito getting hurt. If he goes to the National League, his ERA could drop even further. Give him a big ball park, and he could win another Cy Young Award.
2007 Projection - Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract - 5 Years, $79 million
Twins Interest? - Of course the Twins would love a pitcher of Zito's caliber, but he will be priced well out of the Twins price bracket.
Right-Handed Starting Pitchers (29)
Tony Armas, Jr.
2006 Team - Washington Nationals
Comments - Injuries. Really, the big negative in Armas's career has been that he has missed so much time in his 8 years spent with the big league club. He certainly had the stuff to be great. In 2006, he pitched just over 154 innings and made 30 starts. Maybe at age 28, he is finally getting healthy and will start putting in full seasons.
2007 Projection - Boston Red Sox
Contract - 1 year, $3 million, plus incentives and option years.
Twins Interest? - I think that they should be especially if the dollar-value is down on this level.
Miguel Batista
2006 Team - Arizona Diamondbacks
Comments - Batista will be 36 years old when the 2007 season starts. Back with the D-Backs, Batista was back in the starting rotation after a year in the Blue Jays bullpen. When he starts, he is good for 180 or more innings. He walks too many, but he is a veteran. If he has one negative, it's that he is one of those guys that is too smart.
2007 Projection - Texas Rangers
Contract - 1 year, $5.5 million
Twins Interest? - This is another guy that I would consider as a one year option. He can start and give plenty of innings, but if one of the youngsters proves ready, he could spend the rest of the season in the bullpen and still contribute.
Roger Clemens
2006 Team - Houston Astros
Comments - 44 years old. A career 348-178 record. 4,604 strikeouts. Why hang on? Why keep playing? Well, probably because the last two years, he has still been one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 2006, he didn't start until mid-June and still went 7-6 with a 2.30 ERA. Amazing! As I said with Andy Pettitte, it appears that the two players will go to the same place, whether that is retirement, back with the Astros or to the Yankees.
2007 Projection - NY York Yankees
Contract - 1 year, prorated $29 million
Twins Interest? - I wish! Ha!
Adam Eaton
2006 Team - Texas Rangers
Comments - Eaton came over to the Rangers from the Padres last winter with Akinori Otsuka for Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez and Termell Sledge. Eaton had turned down a big money offer from the Padres. When this deal was made, I couldn't believe how dumb the Rangers were, but most experts said that the Rangers had done very well. Eaton hurt his finger in the final spring training game and missed almost three months. He wasn't real good when he came back either. He may make some money, and maybe still has potential, but I would be a bit leery to pick him up.
2007 Projection - Baltimore Orioles
Contract - 2 years, $11 million
Actual - Phillies, 4 years, $32 million
Twins Interest? - No thank you.
Orlando Hernandez
2006 Team - NY Mets
Comments - El Duque is (ahem...) 37 years old. Despite his impressive playoff record with the Yankees, Hernandez has really just been an average big league starter, when he is healthy, in his career. He can be good. He can be fun to watch. He sounds like a great leader. However, I wouldn't sink a lot of money into him at this stage.
2007 Projection - NY Mets
Contract - 1 year, $4.5 million
Actual - NY Mets, 2 year, $12 million
Twins Interest? - Probably very minimal.
Yusaku Iriki
2006 Team - NY Mets
Comments - After posting very pedestrian numbers in Japan from 1997-2005, Iriki came to the United States before the 2006 season. His name was in the news by late April when he was suspended 50 games for using performance-enhancing drugs. At AAA Norfolk, he went 4-8 with a 4.70 ERA. Decent strikeout numbers, but too many walks.
2007 Projection - Back in Japan
Contract - Minor League, or Japan
Twins Interest? - No thank you.
Jason Johnson
2006 Team - Cincinnati Reds
Comments - After throwing a career-high 210+ innings in 2005, Johnson spent 2006 with three different big league clubs. I know Win-Loss record doesn't tell everything, but when you're 55-98, you might get some indication. Now, he's 33 years old and looking for a club.
2007 Projection - Florida Marlins
Contract - 1 year, $1 million
Twins Interest? - I can see the Twins signing a guy like this, just because he could have the ability to throw 200 innings with an ERA around 5.00. That's not good, but if they can get it for that price, it allows them to be more patient with the likes of Garza, Perkins, etc.
Greg Maddux
2006 Team - Los Angeles Dodgers
Comments - 40 years old. A career 333-203 record. 3,169 strikeouts. 16 Gold Gloves. Why hang on? Why keep playing? Well, probably because he is still a better than average pitcher. Is he elite anymore? No, but he is still very solid. He posted another 15 win season, much of the thanks going to his stint with the Dodgers the last couple of months. He's not young, but he went over 199 innings this year for the 19th straight season. That's durability.
2007 Projection - Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract - 2 years, $18 million
Actual - Padres, 1 year, $10 million with option
Twins Interest? - They absolutely should be. I don't think he would be better than league average in the AL, with the Twins, but he would be a great replacement for what Brad Radke has been.
Jason Marquis
2006 Team - St. Louis Cardinals
Comments - Somehow Marquis won 14 games for the Cardinals this year, but overall, he was 14-16 with a 6.02 ERA. He was very solid the two previous years, but he was left off the Cardinals postseason roster because of how poorly he had done. He is still just 28 years old.
2007 Projection - Minnesota Twins
Contract - 2 years, $9 million
Twins Interest? - Actually, I think that they should make a run for Marquis. I realize 2006 was a bad year for him, but he was very good in both 2004 and 2005. He averaged 200 innings over the past three years. Like many Twins, he strikes out too few. I think it's worth looking at him.
Daisuke Matsuzaka
2006 Team - Played in Japan
Comments - He put on a show in the WBC and is known as the top pitcher out of Japan. Also, he's just 26 years old, so a longer contract does make a lot of sense. Later today, we may find out which team gets to negotiate with Matsuzaka and how much they posted for that right. My guess is it will be between $22 and $25 million. Then, I think Scott Boras will try to get him a five year deal in that $75 million or more deal. If he doesn't, maybe he has Matsuzaka sit out a year and the following year become a free agent and be able to negotiate with everyone.
2007 Projection - NY Yankees
Contract - 5 years, $80 million
Actual - Boston Red Sox bid $51.2 million to negotiate for 30 days with Scott Boras.
Twins Interest? - Again, not at that money.
Gil Meche
2006 Team - Seattle Mariners
Comments - 28 year old Meche is probably the Mariners' version of Kyle Lohse. So much talent, but never really put together that season. Granted, Meche has had a couple of Tommy John surgeries. Last year, he threw 186+ innings in 32 starts and was 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA. Solid and with his age, he could turn it into a decent deal... and someone likely will pay him more than they should.
2007 Projection - Toronto Blue Jays
Contract - 3 years, $18 million
Twins Interest? - If he came at about half of that cost, I would say that the Twins should get in on the bidding.
Wade Miller
2006 Team - Chicago Cubs
Comments - Miller was a great pitcher from 2001 through half of 2004 with the Astros, but then he hurt his arm, and he has done little since. A year in Boston rehabbing, then a year with the Cubs rehabbing, and pitching poorly in limited opportunities. And now he is 30 years old, and his devastating slider appears to be gone.
2007 Projection - Texas Rangers
Contract - Minor league deal.
Actual - Chicago Cubs, 1 year, $1.5 million
Twins Interest? - For a minor league deal, he may be worth the risk, and keep him in Rochester until he shows he's back to his old self.
Brian Moeller
2006 Team - Florida Marlins
Comments - 7-11 with a 6.57 ERA in 122+ innings last year before a foot injury ended his season. He is 34 years old. He's got nine years of big league experience as a starter and a reliever. He has helped the young Marlins rotation the past two years.
2007 Projection - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Contract - 1 year, $1.6 million
Twins Interest? - I actually would not be opposed to Moeller being an option for a veteran role should the Twins decide to go cheap in that area.
Tomo Ohka
2006 Team - Milwaukee Brewers
Comments - Ohka is about the definition of inconsistently average. Some years, he has been solid, without being great. Other years, he has been injured and decent. He has decent stuff, but he has never really had that big year, and at 30, I don't know if he is capable of it.
2007 Projection - Milwaukee Brewers
Contract - 1 year, $3 million
Twins Interest? - If they feel that his rotator cuff is healthy, he's worth hoping to get 190 innings out of.
Ramon Ortiz
2006 Team - Washington Nationals
Comments - The positive is that Ortiz made 33 starts and pitched in 192 innings. The Negatives... he went 11-16 with a 5.57 ERA. The 33 year old has just been too hittable the last couple of seasons.
2007 Projection - Minnesota Twins
Contract - 1 year, $1.8 million
Twins Interest? - At that dollar value, they should inquire. He does still have potential, which is weird for a player of his age.
Russ Ortiz
2006 Team - Baltimore Orioles
Comments - 0-8 with an 8.14 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Carlos Silva should thank Russ Ortiz otherwise Silva's name would come in the who is the worst starting pitcher in baseball discussion. When the D-Backs signed Ortiz two years ago to a horrible four year contract, many laughed and rightfully so. Despite good win totals with the Braves in previous years, he was hittable and walked way too many. It finally caught up to him.
2007 Projection - Colorado Rockies
Contract - Minor League, money isn't a need since the D-Backs will be paying him close to $8 million each of the next two years.
Twins Interest? - Probably none. With Silva already in their rotation, I just can't see it.
Vicente Padilla
2006 Team - Texas Rangers
Comments - 29 year old Padilla pitched wonderfully for the Phillies in 2002 and 2003, but then injuries cut short both 2004 and 2005, and the Phillies tired of him. They sent him to the Rangers, and Padilla put together a solid season. He went 15-10 with a 4.50 ERA. So, his record was better than his ERA would indicate, but don't forget that he was pitching half of the time in Arlington. If he has the energy, he can be very good.
2007 Projection - New York Mets
Contract - 3 years, $25 million
Actual - Rangers, 3 years, $34 million
Twins Interest? - Too much money.
Chan Ho Park
2006 Team - San Diego Padres
Comments - It really wasn't Park's fault that he was offered 5 years and $65 million. That's the Rangers' fault. He didn't pitch well, but he was also hurt. Fact is, from 1997 to 2001, he was one of the better pitchers in the National League. Going to Texas is a negative for any pitcher. Can he ever get back to what he was five years ago? Probably not, but I do believe that he could be a solid big league pitcher for several years.
2007 Projection - San Francisco Giants
Contract - 2 year, $7 million
Twins Interest? - I don't think so. He had two separate DL stints last year.
Brad Radke
2006 Team - Minnesota Twins
Comments - At 34 and with his flawless motion, Brad Radke could have another five or six years ahead of him, but I really believe that he will retire. If he were to come back, he would need to have surgery and likely miss much of next year. He's had a vastly underrated career.
2007 Projection - Retired
Contract - Retired
Twins Interest? - With the Liriano injury, and the need to put Carlos Silva and possibly three youngsters in the rotation, I am sure the Twins would love to have Radke back.
Jason Schmidt
2006 Team - San Francisco Giants
Comments - To me, Schmidt has to be one of the scariest free agents out there. There are several of these guys who have had arm problems in the past. Schmidt has fought minor injuries the last few years. He is 33 years old and will likely make a lot of money for the next four years or so. With more money comes more expectations and the injury risk becomes much greater. His strikeout rate has also dropped over the past three years.
2007 Projection - Seattle Mariners
Contract - 4 years, $50 million (if Jarrod Washburn got 4 years, $40 million, Schmidt should get more than that.)
Twins Interest? - Interested yes... but not at that money.
Aaron Sele
2006 Team - Los Angeles Dodgers
Comments - Sele has not had a 200 inning pitched season since 2001. He has had just one season with an ERA under 4.50 since 1999. He fought injuries for a few years there, but last year, he did a very nice job splitting time between the Dodgers rotation and the bullpen.
2007 Projection - Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract - 1 year, $1.5 million
Twins Interest? - Probably not, but he was born in Minnesota, so they could work that angle.
Jeff Suppan
2006 Team - St. Louis Cardinals
Comments - Supposedly, the Yankees are willing to throw a lot of money at Suppan. He went 12-7 with a 4.12 ERA in 2006, and he was very good in the playoffs as well. Before the playoffs, I would have thought a 2 year, $10 million would have been good for him, but I think that he may get a little more than that. But I think that he would prefer to stay in St. Louis. If he did head elsewhere, it would likely be to California.
2007 Projection - St. Louis Cardinals
Contract - $3 years, 18 million
Twins Interest? - They absolutely should be!
John Thomson
2006 Team - Atlanta Braves
Comments - Thomson was the official free agent pitcher that the Twins should consider... three years ago. he went to the Braves. When healthy, he has been a solid big league pitcher. In his first year with the Braves, he went 198.1 innings with a 14-8 record and a 3.72 ERA. The last two years, he has combined to start 32 games because of injury.
2007 Projection - Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract - 1 year, $2 million.
Twins Interest? - Probably none, because of the injuries.
Jeff Weaver
2006 Team - St. Louis Cardinals
Comments - He pitched incredibly in the postseason and with the Cardinals, and agent Scott Boras will likely try to parlay that into some big money. I would hope that Weaver would take a little control of that situation and take a little less money to sign quickly with the Cards. When he is on, he can throw several pitches from several angles at several speeds and keep hitters off balance.
2007 Projection - St. Louis Cardinals
Contract - 2 years, $15 million
Twins Interest? - I would hope not. I know he was good in the playoffs, but that doesn't un-do the fact that he was horrible the previous four seasons!
Kip Wells
2006 Team - Texas Rangers
Comments - Wells was a surprisingly good pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2002 and 2003, but since then, he has been a great disappointment. In 2006, Wells missed the beginning of the season due to a blocked artery in his neck. He missed time at the end of the year with a foot injury.
2007 Projection - Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract - Minor League
Twins Interest? - None.
Woody Williams
2006 Team - San Diego Padres
Comments - The 40 year old quietly put together a very solid 2006 season. He missed about six weeks because of a calf injury, but he went 12-5 with a 3.65 ERA. Even at his age, I think that he can be counted on for league-average numbers and 160 innings.
2007 Projection - San Francisco Giants
Contract - 1 year, $4 million
Twins Interest? - He might be a very good guy to help out a young pitching staff and provide 160-200 innings on the mound.
Paul Wilson
2006 Team - Cincinnati Reds
Comments - The former #1 overall pick of the Mets made his debut in 1996 with the Mets. He was then hurt and did not resurface in the big leagues until 2000 with the Devil Rays. From 2000 to 2004, he was actually a league average type pitcher. Then again in 2005, he missed a lot of time due to arm problems, and he missed all of 2006.
2007 Projection - Retired
Contract - Minor League deal.
Twins Interest? - Nope.
Kerry Wood
2006 Team - Chicago Cubs
Comments - So much potential when he came up with the Cubs in 1998. He was as good as it gets until the injuries caught up with him in 2004. Solid ERA, lots of strikeouts. And now, several surgeries and many trips to the DL. He will likely get a solid deal, but it may have incentives based on starts, or something.
2007 Projection - Houston Astros
Contract - 1 year, $4 million base, plus incentives and option years.
Actual - Chicago Cubs, 1 year, $1.75 million deal could reach $6 million with incentives.
Twins Interest? - Too risky, not something that the Twins need right now.
Jamey Wright
2006 Team - San Francisco Giants
Comments - In 2006, Wright went 4-10 with a 5.19 ERA. For his career, in almost 1,500 innings, he has an ERA of 5.14. His best days were probably early in the decade with the Milwaukee Brewers.
2007 Projection - Colorado Rockies
Contract - 1 year, $600,000
Twins Interest? - I wouldn't think so.
That's it for today. We'll be back tomorrow with the relievers. Hopefully you found something interesting again today! Please stop back tomorrow. I'd love to hear your thoughts, so feel free to Comment below.