Tuesday, November 6, 2007

OVER RATED!

I haven’t written an overly thought-out posting for awhile, so I thought that I really was due for one. You keep coming to the site, so every once in awhile I should give you something worth reading!

Today I am going to discuss overrated baseball players. A few things have caused me to feel the need to voice mail thoughts on the topic. First, the constant glowing comments about Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek made me call him the most overrated player in baseball. Today, I will determine if I really think he is the most overrated, or if I was able to find someone even more overrated. Then while driving into work one morning, I heard Mark Patrick and Buck Martinez singing the praises of a current free agent that I definitely believe to be vastly overrated. It’s not the one you’re probably thinking, but that was another reason I wanted to write this topic.

So there was the basis for writing this article. But as I was writing it, I couldn’t help but jot down some of the reasons that players can be overrated. I came up with a list of reasons players are overrated that was almost as long as the list of overrated players themselves. Now, to be fair, ESPN’s Jayson Stark wrote a book last winter called “The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History.” In an ESPN.com article, he shared his top ten most overrated active players. Some of mine are the same. Some are completely different. I thought that he defined the term ‘overrated’ very well:

Overratedness -- like underratedness -- is all relative, remember. It's about perception. It's about illusion. It's about myths. It's about assumptions we tend to make about all kinds of players -- assumptions that sometimes turn out not to match up real well with a condition best described as "reality."

Says it pretty well, doesn’t it. It’s about perception. The masses seem to think one thing, for some reason, and the reality of that thing just doesn’t match the hype, in the opinion of someone. So, in the case of my list, it is my thoughts on which players who “people” seem to think are so wonderful just aren’t quite that wonderful. It’s not to say that they aren’t very good, or even wonderful, baseball people. I just don’t think they’re as good as most people want to think.

THE REASONS

Let’s start out with discussing some of the ways that a player can become overrated. Please feel free to add to this list and share your own such examples:

·         The Wrong Numbers – Many think that Joe Borowski had a good year this season because of the high number of Saves. Reality says that he was hit really hard. Pete Rose is the all-time hit king, but he didn’t get on base that much, had no speed and no power. He wasn’t very good defensively at any of the positions he played.

·         One-Dimensional – Juan Pierre is really good at stealing bases. That’s about it. Adam Dunn is really good at hitting home runs. John MacDonald is a really good shortstop defensively.

·         Overpaid – Overrated and Overpaid are not directly correlated, but some seem to feel that they should be. Alex Rodriguez is the highest paid player, he must be overrated. Gil Meche got five years and $55 million. Definitely overpaid, but no one thought real highly of him, so it would have been hard for him to be overrated.

·         Just Not Nice – Barry Bonds is not a nice guy, he must be overrated, right? Jeff Kent was the bad guy when he and Barry Bonds were on the same team! AJ Pierzynski was the bad guy, well, wherever he goes.

·         Does the Little Things Well – he can’t really hit, field, throw, run, hit for power, etc., but he does the little things right. He must be good and valuable, right? Uggh!

·         Media Hype – see the “does the little things well” comment, this is where it is perpetuated. However, small sample size success in front of the right media members make him a media darling. Also, if a guy is nice and tells the media everything that they want to know, he will be glorified. (see Hunter, Torii)

·         Playoff success – the playoffs are such a small sample that it causes both over and under rated-ness. Some people think A-Rod is overrated because his numbers in the playoffs the past two years were pretty bad. Derek Jeter won four World Series, so he can do no wrong. And, have you ever heard the phrase, “he is a proven winner with a World Series ring”? Woo hoo!!! He had four or five good games!

·         Great Glove – Equals “Can’t Hit”

·         East Coast Bias – you can blame everything on this, but hey, the truth is that ESPN like to highlight the Yankees and Red Sox, don’t they?

·         Perpetual Prospect – Baseball America and other prospect list makers start telling us about how great players are when they are 18, 19, 20 years old. Many don’t make the big leagues until they are 23, 24, 25, if they even make it at all. We want to believe that we were right about the prospects, so sometimes we give them the benefit of the doubt… for too long, probably because of his “tools.”

·         Age to Level of Competition – Another minor league thing. Luis Rivas was always very highly thought of because he was playing at a level higher than his age would say he should have been. He never actually hit well but because he was young for his level, he was given the benefit of the doubt. Andy Marte is another example. He was very young for his level of competition throughout the minor leagues. He never put up great, dominant numbers and yet his tools told us that he would be great. Another guy whose minor league numbers were never good but he kept advancing because he didn’t completely get swallowed up was Hanley Ramirez. So sometimes it is possible.

·         Past Success – Then there is the opposite side of the pendulum that also creates over-ratedness.  He had a really good year a couple of years ago, so he is still good. When is the last time that Mike Sweeney had a good season? When was the last time that Shawn Green was an All-Star? Both used to be really good, but they haven’t been for awhile. So, are they still good, or do people still think that they are good? Are they actually just done?

·         Injury – You can’t negate a guy’s talent because of injury. If a great player gets hurt, he is still great, and the assumption is that when he comes back from injury, he is still a great player. Even if he struggles for an extended period of time, he is often given the benefit of the doubt. “He’s still not 100%” Then three years later, he hasn’t been on the Disabled List since and still hasn’t hit well, yet people think that he is still good.

·         Fantasy Baseball – I play fantasy baseball. And I admit that sometimes a guy who is great for a fantasy baseball team just isn’t as great when it comes to the game on the field. So much of this is dependent upon the scoring system in different leagues.  

I am sure there are more reasons that a player can be overrated. But even your reasons for overrated are about your personal perceptions. So, again, take a look at my Most Overrated List, and then tell me what you think. I also want to hear who you think are baseball’s most overrated players or people. So with that I present…

MOST OVERRATED PLAYERS

#1 – Barry Zito – Left-Handed Pitcher – San Francisco Giants

 Barry Zito is a lot of things. He was durable, pitching over 210 innings six straight years. He is a former Cy Young Award winner, in 2002 when he went 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA for the A’s. Since then, he has found a way to get a little worse each year since. He is a pretty good pitcher, but he certainly is not one of the top ten, or maybe even twenty, pitchers in baseball, and yet, he is the highest paid. Scott Boras is good and got the lefty a seven year, $126 million contract. He proceeded to have his worst season yet. He went 11-13 with a 4.53 ERA. His ERA jumped despite moving to the National League. He didn’t reach 200 innings. He once had baseball’s best curveball. Not quite the same anymore. Zito is also a possible posterchild for the A’s Big Three from earlier this decade. Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson all haven’t had the careers we all thought they might.

#2 – Juan Pierre – Centerfielder – Los Angeles Dodgers

Quite possibly the worst hitter in baseball over the last five years, and yet somehow last winter, he got a 5 years, $52.5 million contract from the Dodgers to be their CF and leadoff hitter. First, he’s far from great defensively. Secondly, he isn’t much of a leadoff hitter. His on-base percentage the past three seasons have been .326, .330 and .331. That is horrible! He is the perfect example of a one-dimensional player. When he does get on base, he can steal some bases. The last three years, he has stolen 57, 57 and 64 bases. Many of his hits are speed hits, and as he reached thirty years old, his speed certainly will not increase.

#3 – Jason Varitek – Catcher – Boston Red Sox

So many people get annoyed with the media’s over- glorification of Derek Jeter, but the constant broadcasting hyperbole regarding the Red Sox captain is enough to make me puke! I’m sure that Varitek is a good guy and a nice guy to have on your team, but is he really the reason that the team wins. I mean really, he hits seventh or eighth in their lineup. He’s a league average catcher. He has not had an .800 OPS in two seasons. His career high OPS is just .872. This one is not only perpetuated by the media. When Varitek was hurt a year ago and missed a couple of weeks, every Red Sox loss was because of the absence of Varitek. Plus, he hit .219 with runners in scoring position this year, and .162 with runners in scoring position and two outs. I guess he’s not quite the most overrated player in baseball.

#4 – Scott Podsednik – Outfielder – Chicago White Sox

In 2003, Podsednik was a 23 year old rookie who hit .314/.379/.443 with 29 doubles, eight triples, nine homers, 58 RBI and he stole 43 bases. An .822 OPS is pretty impressive for a rookie. The next year, he hit .244 and his OPS dropped to .677. The Brewers realize he wasn’t good and sent him to the White Sox. In year one with the Sox, his OPS was just .700 in 129 games. Sure, he stole 59 bases, but he was caught 23 times as well. He didn’t homer all year, but he hit a couple of big homers in the playoffs, so people made a big deal of his “clutchness”. The last two years with the Sox, he has remained hurt a lot, and his numbers when he has played have been horrible, and yet some still consider him the key to the White Sox.

#5 – Bobby Crosby – Shortstop – Oakland A’s

In 2005, Crosby was named the American League Rookie of the Year. He played in 151 games and hit just .239/.319/.476 with 34 doubles and 22 homers. In the three years since, he has missed at least 66 games each season. He has  hit under .230 the last two years. His OBP have been .298 and .278 the last two years. He has not even hit for much power. His defense is vastly overrated. And yet, every year, we hear people talking about him as if he is an important part of that A’s team. Some have even predicted him as a preseason MVP candidate. I just don’t get it. Even his managers have overrated him and batted him in the middle of the lineup when he actually is healthy.

#6 – Jason Kendall – Catcher – Chicago Cubs

 Kendall was one of the best catchers in baseball in the late ‘90s with the Pittsburgh Pirates. And then he got a huge contract and hasn’t been good since. Since 2000, he has had one season where he had an OPS over .790. The Pirates traded Kendall to Oakland before the 2004 season, and Kendall has been horrible since then. His OPS the first two years there were .666 and .709. In 2007, Kendall hit .226/.261/.281 in 80 games with the A’s before being traded to the Cubs. It was surprising that another team would even want him. His offense has been bad, but his defense has never been real strong. Kendall’s name may show up later in today’s posting.

#7 – Ryan Freel – Utility Player – Cincinnati Reds

A slightly lesser known name, but I so frequently hear about how great Ryan Freel is. I’ve had people ask me if I thought that the Twins should try to acquire him from the Reds. SportsCenter likes to show his all-out style of play on web gems. A lot of people seem to think that he is really, really good. Again, he’s not horrible and he has now spent the past five seasons with the Cincinnati Reds after getting into a couple handful of games with the Blue Jays in 2001. I know batting average doesn’t say anything, but Freel has never hit over .277 in a full season. He does seem to have a good idea, but he has little pop in his bat.  He is a great utility player, but he’s just a good player, if that makes sense. Don’t forget too that Ken Griffey Jr’s concern about moving to right field was primarily from worrying about the recklessness of Freel.

#8 – David Eckstein – Shortstop – Free Agent

This is the free agent that I heard the MLB This Morning Crew gloating about. Media talks about how he does all the little things, and he’s a good bunter, he’s a good team guy. He is listed at 5’ 7” and generously 177 pounds. It makes for a great story. He’s easy to root for. He looks like a normal person. When I was looking at his numbers, they were actually far better than I had thought that they would be. However, his career OPS is .713. His career best OPS is .758. He is a nice player, a solid player. He obviously has worked hard and continues to work really hard and you can visibly see the effort. But he isn’t a difference-maker. He is a player that will not hurt a team. He isn’t a difference-maker that makes a team a winner.

#9 – Ty Wigginton – Infielder – Houston Astros

At the trade deadline, Wigginton was the player that several teams and fans of several teams, including the Twins, were allegedly interested in acquiring. In the end, he was traded for a middle reliever. Maybe that is the biggest indicator of just how overrated he really was. Now, he has had a couple of solid seasons with the Devil Rays the past two years. He combined to hit 46 homers over those two years, but clearly home runs in Tropicana are not overly difficult to hit. However, he did also hit a lot of doubles. But he really doesn’t have a position. Sure, he can play 3B and 2B, but his best defensive position is probably first base. However, you could also argue that his best position is DH.

#10 – Derek Jeter – Shortstop – New York Yankees

It is ridiculous to think that a future first-ballot Hall of Famer is at all overrated. This ranking is through no fault of his own. You can expressly thank Tim McCarver, Joe Buck and every media member in the country for this ranking. Jeter can do no wrong. He has four World Series rings (solely because of him, right?). He does all the little things. He’s the captain of the Yankees. He dates a lot of very attractive women. He is what every baseball fan would kill to be. He is a media darling. Has he earned it? Sure he has. He has played to the level of a Hall of Famer in the regular season and in the post season. He gets a lot of hits and hits for a high average. He will do those little things. And he is good with the media. It’s just that the media treatment that he receives is so over-the-top that no player could ever attain such a level.

THE NEXT 10

#11 – Johnny Damon – OF/DH - New York Yankees

#12 – JD Drew – OF – Boston Red Sox
#13 – Bartolo Colon – SP – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

#14 – Miguel Tejada – SS – Baltimore Orioles

#15 – Jack Wilson – SS – Pittsburgh Pirates

#16 – Jim Edmonds  - OF – St. Louis Cardinals

#17 – Nomar Garciaparra – IF – Los Angeles Dodgers

#18 – Eric Chavez – 3B - Oakland A’s

#19 – Rocco Baldelli – OF/DH – Tampa Bay Devil Rays

#20 – Shawn Green – OF – New York Mets

HONORABLE MENTION (Non-Players)

#1 – Billy Beane – GM – Oakland A’s

Because of Moneyball, Beane has received accolades as being baseball’s best GM. He found a way to make the A’s compete despite a low payroll. On-Base Percentage. Drafting college players. Finding ways to get players for below market value. Taking away risk. There are several very good qualities to many of his theories. But he isn’t perfect. He has not made all the right decisions. Hey, if no one else would have drafted Jeremy Brown until the 10^th round, there is no excuse for taking him in the 1^st round. Andre Ethier for Milton Bradley? Trading for the overpriced Jason Kendall? Trading Jeremy Bonderman? Yes, I realize that acquiring Jack Cust was nice. He got Frank Thomas for a year at bargain basement price. But SABR types seem to think this guy is perfect and the reality is that he is just as error-prone as other GMs.

#2 – Tommy Lasorda - ?? – Los Angeles Dodgers

I just don’t understand what the big deal is about Tommy Lasorda. He is a baseball ambassador, but really, I don’t want to or need to hear his opinion on everything. He was the Dodgers manager for 21 seasons. He went to two World Series. A nice accomplishment. Terry Francona has won two World Series in the last four years. Lasorda gets to coach 3B in an All-Star game. He was chosen the Team USA head coach in the 2000 Olympics and he will take as much credit as possible for winning the Gold Medal, as if Ben Sheets and Doug Mientkiewicz had nothing to do with it. Lasorda is a mouthpiece, but I just wonder why. I don’t understand why he is so glorified.    

So there you have it. My list of the most overrated players in baseball and many reasons why a player could be overrated. I hope you’ve enjoyed this and yet I really hope that it has made you think. I would love to hear your thoughts on this topic, so please leave some Comments below. Feel free to disagree and explain why. Share you Top 5 or Top 10 lists and let’s get the discussion going! That’s the purpose of the list, the discussion.

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NFL “Expert” Picks

Congratulations to Roger Dehring for being this week’s winner with a 12-2 record. Vic Quick came in right behind him at 11-3. Josh Taylor is still in the overall lead, but Stick & Ball Guy did make up a game to cut the lead to one.

A couple of final notes:

·         Down in Arizona, Trevor Plouffe went 2-3 with a walk yesterday. After a slow start, he is now hitting .286. Drew Butera went 1-3 with a walk. He is hitting .273. Eddie Morlan struck out one in his scoreless inning.

·         The Twins announced the winners of their Diamond Awards yesterday. They will be passed out at a banquet before Twins Fest. Here are the winners:

1.       Calvin R. Griffith Award – Twins MVP – Torii Hunter (Pretty easy choice on this one)

2.       Joseph W. Hayes Award – Twins Best Pitcher – Johan Santana (for the fifth straight year)

3.       Charles O. Johnson Award – Most Improved – Carlos Silva (I bet normally goes to a player with less MLB experience, but this is a good choice.)

4.       Bill Boni Award – Most Outstanding Rookie – Matt Garza (Garza wasn’t even a rookie in 2007!!!!)

5.       Dick Siebert Award – Best Performance by someone from the Upper Midwest – Pat Neshek (great choice!)

6.       Bob Allison Award – exemplifies determination, hustle, tenacity, competitive spirit and leadership on and off the field – Mike Redmond (can’t argue with the choice).

Now, that is it for today. I hope you’ve enjoyed what you’ve read and will come back again. Please feel free to comment on anything, or send me an e-mail.

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