One of the very first blog
entries that I wrote when I started this site was the "Who
is the Greatest Hitter of All-Time?" entry. At the time, it
did receive quite a bit of discussion in a few online places, which
was very cool. However, it was done in June of 2003 and only
included stats through the 2002 season. Barry Bonds has
continued to put up incredible, MVP numbers since then (as we all
know). On numerous occasions during the past year, people have
e-mailed me and asked me to update that report to see if Barry
Bonds has moved up the list. I wanted to wait until after the
season before updating that entry.
Well, now the season is over. The Red Sox are the World Champions.
And there will not be a regular season baseball game until next
April. That’s about five months! Well, Spring Training is only
three-and-a-half months away. And we have the Arizona Fall League
and all the Winter Leagues. But it’s just not the same.
Over the offseason, I will continue to update this site most
weekdays. We do have a few articles in the works. But today, we are
going to update our Greatest Hitters of All-Time list. Here is just
a quick reminder of the results from the previous report. The
numbers will make more sense after you’ve read the below. If you
want to see how this looked last June, please click
here.
Ranking (1-8)
Scale Scoring (scale to 10)
1.) Babe Ruth 2.27
1.) Babe Ruth 8.80
2.) Ted Williams 3.27
2.) Ty Cobb 8.13
3.) Ty Cobb 3.67
3.) Ted Williams 7.95
4.) Barry Bonds 4.67
4.) Hank Aaron 7.34
5.) Hank Aaron 4.73
5.) Barry Bonds 7.19
6.) Willie Mays 5.13
6.) Willie Mays 7.05
7.) Mickey Mantle 5.73
7.) Mickey Mantle 6.65
8.) Joe Dimaggio 5.87
8.) Joe Dimaggio 6.28
Where will Mr. Bonds rank after this report is updated? Let’s find
out!
(Updated from Tuesday, June 3, 2003)
Who
Is The Greatest???
As promised, today’s writing
will be on "Who is the Greatest Hitter of All-Time". Well, by
the time you get to the bottom of this, you will see who, in my
highly scientific statistical analysis, is the greatest. I’d like to
thank the folks at
Baseball-Reference.com for their work and making researching
all of the below numbers so much easier.
Before doing this research, I was of the opinion that Willie Mays
was the greatest overall hitter. Not a very popular choice. Was I
right? Was I wrong? See below:
The Candidates
(in alphabetical order)
Hank
Aaron -
1954-1976 (23 seasons).
Hammerin’ Hank played in 21 All-Star
games. He finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting 13 times, winning
the NL MVP award in 1957.He led the league in batting average twice,
slugging percentage 4 times and OPS+ 3 times. Oh yeah, he’s the
all-time home run king too!
Barry
Bonds -
1986-Current (19 seasons, and counting)
Barry Lamar Bonds broke Mark
McGwire’s single-season home run record with 73. He has pretty
much demolished the record books the last four years. He has
appeared in 13 All-Star games, so far. He has finished in the Top 10
in MVP voting 13 times winning an unprecedented 6 MVP awards (1990,
1992, 1993, 2001, 2002 and 2003), so far (and lets be honest, he’s
going to win the 2004 MVP as well!). He led the league in batting
average in 2002 and 2004, has led the league in On-Base percentage
eight times, in slugging percentage seven times, and in OPS+ nine
times. And, barring major injury, he could play a few more quality
years and move his way up any list of greatest players ever! (UPDATE
- I updated the MVPs and league leaders above. Bonds has continued
to hit home runs (passing 700 this season) in masses despite
pitchers not being willing to pitch to him! His On-Base Percentage
was over .600. With all the walks, his batting average has risen
drastically. And, his numbers above the average player is continuing
to increase.)
Ty Cobb
- 1905-1928 (24 seasons).
The Georgia Peach was anything but peachy, but
he could hit! The 1911 AL MVP hit for the Triple Crown in 1909. He
led the league in batting average 11 times, and his career .366
average is the best in major league history. He also led the league
in on-base percentage seven times, slugging percentage eight times
and OPS+ 11 times. He and Pete Rose are the only two major
leaguers with over 4,000 hits.
Joe
Dimaggio -
1936-1951 (13 seasons, because he Did Not Play in 1943-1945 to serve
in the war) -
Joltin’ Joe played in 13 All-Star games. He
finished in the top 10 in MVP voting ten times and won the award
three times (1939, 1941, and 1947). He won the batting title twice,
led the league in slugging percentage twice and OPS+ once. What is
he best known for? Well, it could be the 56 game hitting streak in
1941. Or, it could be for being married to Marilyn Monroe!!
Mickey
Mantle -
1951-1968 (18 seasons)
The Mick played in 16 All-Star games. He was in
the Top 10 in MVP voting nine times winning the award three times
(1956, 1957, 1962). He led the league in batting average once,
on-base percentage three times, slugging percentage four times and
OPS+ eight times. Injuries affected and cut-short his amazing
career.
Willie
Mays -
1951-1973 (23 seasons)
The Say Hey Kid played on 20 All-Star teams. He
was the 1951 NL Rookie of the Year. He was the NL MVP in 1954 and
1965 and finished in the top 10 in voting 12 times! He led his
league in batting average and on-base percentage once, slugging
percentage five times and OPS+ six times.
George Herman Ruth
- 1914-1935 (22 seasons)
The Babe revolutionized the game of baseball. He
made the home run special as he frequently had more home runs in a
season than some teams. Babe Ruth played in just 2 All-Star games,
but of course, the All-Star game didn’t start until 1933. He was the
1923 AL MVP. He led the league in batting average once, on-base
percentage ten times, slugging percentage thirteen times, and OPS+
thirteen times. His career slugging percentage (.690) and OPS+ (207)
are the best all-time. Oh, and not related to hitting, he was 94-46
with a 2.28 ERA as a pitcher in his early years.
Ted
Williams -
1939-1960 (16+ seasons, because he served our country in two wars)
The Splendid Splinter is the last player to hit
.400 (1941). He was a 17-time All-Star. He won the Triple Crown in
1942. He finished in the top 10 in MVP voting twelve times, winning
the award in 1946 and 1949. He led the American League in batting
average six times, on-base percentage twelve times, slugging
percentage nine times, and OPS+ nine times. His .482 career on-base
percentage is the best in major league history. I apologize, but
these kinds of numbers should be frozen in time.
Criteria
In my mind, there is more to "the greatest hitter" than just number
of hits. If so, Pete Rose is the best, Ty Cobb is
second. I think that a compilation of all stats are important in
determining who’s the greatest. Can a player hit for average, get on
base, and hit for power? I also think that by-products of this are
runs scored and RBIs. I went into developing my theory with three
thoughts in mind:
1.) Raw Numbers do
matter. People downgrade Hank Aaron’s numbers sometimes because
he has so many at bats more than anyone else. I happen to
believe that his numbers speak for themselves and are important.
2.) Longevity - I understand that Aaron and Cobb had longer
careers than Dimaggio or Williams. Baseball is a great game, and
a game of numbers. Injuries are a part of the game, otherwise
Ken Griffey Jr. might have to be added to this list too. The
fact that Dimaggio and Williams served their country in war time
and are regarded as heroes is tougher. I guess I could try to
project, but 1.) that’s hard, and 2.) who’s to say that they
would have lived up to those projections or wouldn’t have been
hurt? So, I’ll just again leave the numbers to themselves.
3.) Another factor in my judgment will be how these players
compared to the average player during their era. How much are
their numbers better than others who played at that time? I will
talk about their numbers in relation to the League Average Park
Adjusted numbers. This basically is saying what the average
major league player playing in the same ballparks as the player
would have done. For instance, Barry Bonds played in
Pittsburgh from 1986-1992, and in 2 different ballparks in San
Francisco since. The park adjusted league average shows what the
average player playing in his exact career path would have done.
Clear as mud?
Categories
So, here are the 15 statistics used:
1.) Hits, 2.) 2B, 3.)
3B, 4.) HR, 5.) RBI, 6.) Runs, 7.) Batting Average, 8.) %
Batting Average Above League/Park Adjusted Average, 9.) On-Base
Percentage, 10.) % On-Base Percentage Above League/Park Adjusted
Average, 11.) Slugging Percentage, 12.) % Slugging Percentage
Above League/Park Adjusted Average, 13.) OPS (On-Base Plus
Slugging), 14.) OPS Above League/Park Adjusted Average, and 15.)
OPS+.
Equations
I wanted to look at the data 2 ways. These players are generally
considered the eight greatest players. I realize there are others
that could be considered for hits, home runs, etc. But, by doing two
ratings, we would hope to have a consensus for the #1 overall
player.
1.) Ranking -
For each of the 15 categories, I ranked the players 1 through 8.
Then, I added up the sum of the 15 numbers and divided by 15 to
get the average. This results in a number between 1 and 8. If a
player ranked first in each of the 15 categories - (15x1)/15=1.
So, the lower the score, the better the player ranks.
2.) Scale Score - I took the leader of the 8 in each
category and assigned 10 points to him. Using their statistic as
the denominator, I put the other players’ statistics in the
numerator. The result of that division was taken times ten the
result being between 0 and 9.9. Example - In 1998, Mark
McGwire hit 70 home runs, Sammy Sosa hit 66. In that
case, McGwire would receive a 10 for leading the category. Sosa
would receive 66/70x10=9.4. I think this more fairly
distinguishes the difference between the player and the leader.
In this case, the higher the score (closest to 10) is the
leader.
Statistics
I will now enter the leaders by category with the Ranking shown
first then Scale Score in parentheses.
HITS
2B
3B
HR
1.) Cobb 4,192 (10.0)
1.) Cobb 724 (10.0) 1.)
Cobb 295 (10.0)
1.) Aaron 755 (10.0)
2.) Aaron 3,771 (9.0) 2.)
Aaron 624 (8.6) 2.)
Mays 140 (4.7)
2.) Ruth 714 (9.5)
3.) Mays 3,283 (7.8)
3.) Bonds 563 (7.8)
3.) Ruth 136 (4.6)
3.) Bonds 703 (9.3)
4.) Ruth 2,873 (6.9)
4.) Williams 525 (7.3) 4.) Dimaggio 131
(4.4) 4.) Mays 660 (8.7)
5.) Bonds 2,730 (6.5) 5.)
Mays 523 (7.2)
5.) Aaron 98 (3.3)
5.) Mantle 536 (7.1)
6.) Williams 2,654 (6.3) 6.) Ruth 506 (7.0)
6.) Bonds 77 (2.6)
6.) Williams 521 (6.9)
7.) Mantle 2,415 (5.8) 7.)
Dimaggio 389 (5.4) 7.) Mantle 72 (2.4)
7.) Dimaggio 361 (4.8)
8.) Dimaggio 2,214 (5.3) 8.) Mantle 344 (4.8)
8.) Williams 71 (2.4) 8.)
Cobb 117 (1.5)
RUNS
RBI
Batting Avg
BA Above Lg Avg.
1.) Cobb 2,246 (10.0)
1.) Aaron 2,297 (10.0) 1.) Cobb
.366 (10.0) 1.) Cobb
34% (10.0)
2.) Aaron 2,174 (9.7) 2.)
Ruth 2,213 (9.6)
2.) Williams .344 (9.4) 2.) Williams 24%
(7.1)
2.) Ruth 2,174 (9.7)
3.) Cobb 1,937 (8.4)
3.) Ruth .342 (9.3)
3.) Ruth 20% (5.9)
4.) Bonds 2,070 (9.2) 4.)
Mays 1,903 (8.3)
4.) Dimaggio .325 (8.9) 4.) Dimaggio 18% (5.3)
5.) Mays 2,062 (9.2)
5.) Bonds 1,843 (8.0)
5.) Aaron .305 (8.3)
5.) Aaron 17% (5.0)
6.) Williams 1,798 (8.0) 6.) Williams 1,839 (8.0)
6.) Mays .302 (8.3)
6.) Mantle 16% (4.7)
7.) Mantle 1,677 (7.5) 7.)
Dimaggio 1,537 (6.7) 7.) Bonds .300 (8.2)
7.) Mays 15% (4.4)
8.) Dimaggio 1,390 (6.2) 8.) Mantle 1,509 (6.6)
8.) Mantle .298 (8.1)
8.) Bonds 15% (4.4)
On-Base %
OBP Above Lg Avg
Slugging %
Slg % Above Avg.
1.) Williams .482 (10.0) 1.) Williams 35% (10.0)
1.) Ruth .690 (10.0)
1.) Ruth 73% (10.0)
2.) Ruth .474 (9.8)
2.) Ruth 34% (9.7)
2.) Williams .634 (9.2) 2.) Williams
55% (7.5)
3.) Bonds .443 (9.2) 2.)
Bonds 34% (9.7) 3.)
Bonds .611 (8.9) 3.)
Bonds 50% (6.8)
4.) Cobb .433 (9.0)
4.) Mantle 28% (8.0) 4.)
Dimaggio .579 (8.4) 4.) Mantle 44% (6.0)
5.) Mantle .421 (8.7) 5.) Cobb
27% (7.7)
5.) Mantle .557 (8.1) 5.)
Dimaggio 43% (5.9)
6.) Dimaggio .398 (8.3) 6.) Mays 17% (4.9)
5.) Mays .557 (8.1)
6.) Aaron 41% (5.6)
7.) Mays .384 (8.0)
7.) Aaron 14% (4.0)
7.) Aaron .555 (8.0)
7.) Cobb 40% (5.5)
8.) Aaron .374 (7.8)
8.) Dimaggio 12% (3.4) 8.) Cobb .512 (7.4)
8.) Mays 39% (5.3)
OPS
OPS Above Lg Avg
OPS +
1.) Ruth 1.164 (10.0)
1.) Ruth 55% (10.0)
1.) Ruth 207 (10.0)
2.) Williams 1.116 (9.6) 2.) Williams 46% (8.4)
2.) Williams 190 (9.2)
3.) Bonds 1.033 (9.0) 3.) Bonds
43% (7.8) 3.)
Bonds 184 (8.9)
4.) Mantle .978 (8.4) 4.)
Cobb 34% (6.2)
4.) Mantle 172 (8.3)
5.) Dimaggio .977 (8.4) 5.) Aaron 29% (5.3)
5.) Cobb 167 (8.1)
6.) Cobb .945 (8.1)
5.) Dimaggio 29% (5.3) 6.) Mays 156 (7.5)
7.) Mays .941 (8.1)
5.) Mantle 29% (5.3)
7.) Aaron 155 (7.5)
8.) Aaron .928 (8.0)
5.) Mays 29% (5.3)
7.) Dimaggio 155 (7.7)
RESULTS
Ranking (1-8)
Scale Scoring (scale to 10)
1.) Babe Ruth 2.27
1.) Babe Ruth 8.80
2.) Ted Williams 3.47
2.) Ty Cobb 8.13
3.) Ty Cobb 3.73
3.) Ted Williams 7.95
4.) Barry Bonds 4.07
4.) Barry Bonds 7.75
5.) Hank Aaron 4.73
5.) Hank Aaron 7.34
6.) Willie Mays 5.33
6.) Willie Mays 7.05
7.) Mickey Mantle 5.80
7.) Mickey Mantle 6.65
8.) Joe Dimaggio 6.00
8.) Joe Dimaggio 6.28
So, either way you look at it, Babe Ruth appears to be the
Greatest Hitter of All-Time. A big part of that is his complete
dominance of his era. His percentages above his era’s averages is
more than the others. From there, it’s a toss-up as to whether
Ted Williams or Ty Cobb is #2 all-time. I’d give the edge
to Ted Williams because of his time lost to the wars. It’s
another toss-up for #4 between Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron.
Bonds is still playing, so his numbers will continue to rise, so
I’ll give him the edge there. With 3 or 4 more healthy, successful
years, I could see Bonds jumping as high as #2 on this list.
My final listing of the
Top 8 Greatest Hitters of All-Time:
1.) Babe Ruth
2.) Ted Williams
3.) Ty Cobb
4.) Barry Bonds
5.) Hank Aaron
6.) Willie Mays
7.) Mickey Mantle
8.) Joe Dimaggio
I hope you’ve enjoyed this
document, because I know I enjoyed researching it. I guarantee, I
never enjoyed writing a paper and researching as much in college as
I did doing this! If you have any comments, questions, concerns,
suggestions, etc, please
E-mail me!
UPDATED SUMMARY
Well, I am actually surprised
that in the big picture, there was very little change, even with
Barry Bonds' incredible 2003 and 2004 seasons! Yes, he is
officially now in fourth place by both measures. He has solidified
his numbers and they continue to move up. I really believe that if
he is able to play two more full, healthy seasons, he will continue
to pass the likes of Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth. Certainly,
we can all see that he will pass both Babe Ruth and Hank
Aaron on the Home Run lists. He will continue to move up the
other lists as well. It will be interesting to see just how far he
even can move up the list. Babe Ruth's dominance over the
other players in his era make him very difficult, if not impossible
to pass.
One question I have for you,
the readers, is what more should be done with this report? Sure, I
could use Win Shares, or VORP, or other far more highly technical
metrics to do this. However, as I mentioned, I believe that many of
the raw numbers are important too because I do believe that
longevity is important to determining career accomplishments. My
main question is this: I used eight players that I believe are most
mentioned when talking about the all-time greats. Are there other
names that should be considered as well? If so, who? I have thought
that Rogers Hornsby and Honus Wagner should be
included from the early years (although there are a number of
reasons that I don't trust their numbers, but that's the same issues
as I should have with Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb.).
Frank Robinson may be one of the more underrated players in
baseball history. Are there other more current players that should
fit into such a report? I'd love to hear your comments on this.
Please e-mail me.
VIKINGS PREDICTION
The Vikings play the NY Giants
on Sunday at noon at Metrodome. The Giants have been a surprise team
this year with Kurt Warner re-establishing himself as a
quality NFL QB. Tiki Barber is the leader RB in all-purpose
yards this year. The Giants are a very good team.
However, the Vikings are also
a very good team. They have the best QB in the NFL (statistically at
the very least). Mewelde Moore has taken over the RB position
and does not appear to want to give it up. Mike Tice is
saying that Randy Moss will play this weekend in a more real
role. Even if he isn't, the likes of Marcus Robinson and
Nate Burleson are legit receiver options, and Jermaine
Wiggins provides another weapon.
But, the Vikings have really
struggled against the Giants in recent years, so don't be surprised
if this is a close game.
Seth's Prediction - VIKINGS
31, GIANTS 23.
NFL
"EXPERT" PICKS
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life-long Red Sox fan! I'm sure you can imagine
how
happy he is feeling these days! Be sure to check out his
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On that note, I am going to call it a day and a week. Have yourself
a great weekend! Happy Halloween and be safe! Next week, the
Timberwolves begin their new season, so I will have a preview of the
team and the NBA next week, along with more baseball information as
it comes. If you have any questions, comments or ideas
for future topics, please
e-mail me.
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