Friday October 24

Friday October 24, 2003

TIMBERWOLVES THOUGHTS

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS

WORLD SERIES GAME 5

BANG FOR THE BUCK (2003 edition)

I’ve been working on this report for a month or so now. Which major league player provided the most offensive Bang for the Buck? Which player had the best stats at the lowest cost? I think it’s an interesting question.

But how should that be measured? Well, obviously 2003 salary is going to be the denominator of the equation. But what offensive statistic should be used to determine “bang”? Is it just the number of home runs? Well, not really, because home runs are just one statistic. Someone could have 35 home runs, but hit .200. How about On-base Percentage? Well, that includes walking as a fairly major portion of it. You don’t “bang” when you walk. There’s no noise at all, well, except the ball hitting the catcher’s mitt.

Well, I could go stat-by-stat and find reasons it should not be the statistic to use. So, here’s what I’m going to do. I’m going to use my favorite statistic, OPS (On-base percentage + Slugging percentage). I like the stat because it does encourage players to get on base. But, in using Slugging Percentage, ‘total bases’ are the key number. In other words, a single is worth 1, a double is worth 2, a triple 3, and a home run 4. I think that “bang” could mean “extra-bases.” So, OPS is what I will use. I would love your input though. Is there a better statistic for me to use? Send me an e-mail and let me know what you think. If someone convinces me that there is a better stat to use, I will re-run my analysis with it!

So, now we have that figured out. But, then a fairly important thought crossed my mind. Based on how obvious it is, I should have thought of it sooner. How is it even fair to compare the stat/salary ratios of Scott Podsednik ($300,000) and Alex Rodriguez ($22,000,000). A-Rod earned more than 73 times as much as Podsednik. To have an equivalent OPS/$ ratio to Podsednik’s 822, A-Rod would have to have an OPS of over 60,000. Of course, the maximum OPS a player can have is 5000. So, to counter that fact, I have broken the players into six salary ranges. The ranges are somewhat arbitrary so that categories are (in my opinion) fair.

I took a look at 154 players that hit the minimum number of plate appearances to be eligible for a batting title. I looked at their 2003 OPS, and compared it to their 2003 salary (most numbers from ESPN.com). OPS divided by Salary (and then times a number (1,000,000) just to make the numbers more readable or user-friendly.

Why don’t I just get to the numbers and you can see exactly what I mean. I will show the Top 10 Bang for the Buck players in each of my salary ranges, starting with the highest salaried players, those making over $10 million in 2003. As we get further down the pay scale, obviously it is more feasible that when dividing by far smaller numbers, the result is a bigger number, showing more Bang for the Buck.

Top 10 Bang for the Buck (over $10 million category)

Player	OPS	2003 Salary	OPS/Salary
Todd Helton	1088	$ 10,600,000	102.64
Gary Sheffield	1023	$ 11,000,000	93.00
Jim Thome	958	$ 11,166,667	85.79
Barry Bonds	1278	$ 15,000,000	85.20
Nomar Garciaparra	870	$ 10,500,000	82.86
Jason Giambi	939	$ 11,428,571	82.16
Andruw Jones	851	$ 11,500,000	74.00
Bernie Williams	778	$ 12,357,143	62.96
Manny Ramirez	1014	$ 17,185,177	59.00
Carlos Delgado	1019	$ 17,500,000	58.23

Top 10 Bang for the Buck ($5 - $9.9 million category)

Player	OPS	2003 Salary	OPS/Salary
Frank Thomas	952	$ 5,000,000	190.40
Richie Sexson	927	$ 5,125,000	180.88
Geoff Jenkins	913	$ 5,187,500	176.00
Garrett Anderson	885	$ 5,350,000	165.42
Miguel Tejada	807	$ 5,125,000	157.46
Jose Vidro	866	$ 5,500,000	157.45
Jose Valentin	776	$ 5,000,000	155.20
Vinny Castilla	771	$ 5,000,000	154.20
Javy Lopez	1065	$ 7,000,000	152.14
Carlos Beltran	911	$ 6,000,000	151.83

Top 10 Bang for the Buck ($2 - $4.9 million category)

Player	OPS	2003 Salary	OPS/Salary
Bill Mueller	938	$ 2,100,000	446.67
Kevin Millar	820	$ 2,000,000	410.00
Frank Catalanotto	823	$ 2,200,000	374.09
Eric Young	727	$ 2,000,000	363.50
Rafael Furcal	794	$ 2,200,000	360.91
Adam Kennedy	743	$ 2,270,000	327.31
Terrence Long	678	$ 2,175,000	311.72
Jose Cruz Jr.	779	$ 2,500,000	311.60
Jacque Jones	797	$ 2,750,000	289.82
Placido Polanco	799	$ 2,875,000	277.91

Top 10 Bang for the Buck ($1 - $1.9 million category)

Player	OPS	2003 Salary	OPS/Salary
Reggie Sanders	913	$ 1,000,000	913.00
David Ortiz	961	$ 1,250,000	768.80
Erubiel Durazo	804	$ 1,065,000	754.93
Juan Pierre	734	$ 1,000,000	734.00
Mark Loretta	814	$ 1,250,000	651.20
Deivi Cruz	647	$ 1,000,000	647.00
Pat Burrell	713	$ 1,250,000	570.40
Alex Cora	625	$ 1,150,000	543.48
Doug Mientkiewicz	843	$ 1,750,000	481.71
Jay Payton	865	$ 1,850,000	467.57

Top 10 Bang for the Buck ($400,000 - $999,999 category)

Player	OPS	2003 Salary	OPS/Salary
Adam Dunn	819	$ 400,000	2,047.50
Vernon Wells	909	$ 520,000	1,748.08
Travis Lee	807	$ 500,000	1,614.00
Ronnie Belliard	760	$ 475,000	1,600.00
Jimmy Rollins	707	$ 450,000	1,571.11
David Eckstein	651	$ 425,000	1,531.76
Wes Helms	780	$ 575,000	1,356.52
Eric Hinske	765	$ 600,000	1,275.00
Albert Pujols	1106	$ 900,000	1,228.89
Marlon Anderson	703	$ 600,000	1,171.67

Top 10 Bang for the Buck (less than $400,000 category)

Player	OPS	2003 Salary	OPS/Salary
Marcus Giles	917	$ 316,500	2,897.31
Hank Blalock	872	$ 302,500	2,882.64
Aubrey Huff	922	$ 325,000	2,836.92
Jody Gerut	830	$ 300,000	2,766.67
Scott Podsednik	822	$ 300,000	2,740.00
Brad Wilkerson	844	$ 315,000	2,679.37
Marlon Byrd	784	$ 300,000	2,613.33
Angel Berroa	789	$ 302,000	2,612.58
Sean Burroughs	755	$ 302,000	2,500.00
Rocco Baldelli	742	$ 300,000	2,473.33

How the Twins Ranked

Player	OPS	2003 Salary	OPS/Salary
AJ Pierzynski	824	$ 365,000	2,257.53
Luis Rivas	689	$ 340,000	2,026.47
Doug Mientkiewicz	843	$ 1,750,000	481.71
Jacque Jones	797	$ 2,750,000	289.82
Cristian Guzman	676	$ 2,525,000	267.72
Corey Koskie	845	$ 3,400,000	248.53
Torii Hunter	762	$ 4,750,000	160.42
Shannon Stewart	823	$ 6,200,000	132.74

Top 10 in the Major Leagues in OPS (regardless of salary)

Player	OPS	2003 Salary	OPS/Salary
Barry Bonds	1278	$ 15,000,000	85.20
Albert Pujols	1106	$ 900,000	1,228.89
Todd Helton	1088	$ 10,600,000	102.64
Javy Lopez	1065	$ 7,000,000	152.14
Gary Sheffield	1023	$ 11,000,000	93.00
Carlos Delgado	1019	$ 17,500,000	58.23
Manny Ramirez	1014	$ 17,185,177	59.00
Jim Edmonds	1002	$ 8,333,333	120.24
Alex Rodriguez	995	$ 22,000,000	45.23
Trot Nixon	975	$ 4,000,000	243.75

Top 10 Salaries of 2003 (Hitters Only)

Alex Rodriguez	995	$ 22,000,000	45.23
Carlos Delgado	1019	$ 17,500,000	58.23
Manny Ramirez	1014	$ 17,185,177	59.00
Derek Jeter	844	$ 15,600,000	54.10
Barry Bonds	1278	$ 15,000,000	85.20
Bernie Williams	778	$ 12,357,143	62.96
Bobby Higginson	689	$ 11,850,000	58.14
Andruw Jones	851	$ 11,500,000	74.00
Jason Giambi	939	$ 11,428,571	82.16
Jim Thome	958	$ 11,166,667	85.79

Least Bang for the Buck

Player	OPS	2003 Salary	OPS/Salary
Alex Rodriguez	995	$ 22,000,000	45.23
Derek Jeter	844	$ 15,600,000	54.10
Bobby Higginson	689	$ 11,850,000	58.14
Carlos Delgado	1019	$ 17,500,000	58.23
Manny Ramirez	1014	$ 17,185,177	59.00
Bernie Williams	778	$ 12,357,143	62.96
Andruw Jones	851	$ 11,500,000	74.00
Craig Biggio	763	$ 9,750,000	78.26
Jason Giambi	939	$ 11,428,571	82.16
Nomar Garciaparra	870	$ 10,500,000	82.86

So, there you have it, some analysis on who provided their team the most Bang for the Buck. Congratulations to Atlanta Braves 2B, Marcus Giles, on providing his team with the most Bang for the Buck in Major League Baseball in 2003. Again, I fully understand that the Least Bang for the Buck is really an unfair statistic. Aside from Bobby Higginson and Craig Biggio, the other players on that list had very solid years, most appearing in the Top 10 in OPS. However, when the analysis involves the “for the buck”, it is fair to take their salaries into account.

Again, I hope you’ve enjoyed looking at this information. I think it is very interesting. If there is a player you are curious about where they’d rank, e-mail me and let me know. If there is another stat I should be looking at, or have any comments whatsoever on this report, send me an e-mail and I’d love to hear your thoughts!

TIMBERWOLVES THOUGHTS

The Wolves played, and won, their final preseason game last night against the Indiana Pacers, 90-73). Wally Szczerbiak sat out the game again, as did Michael Olowokandi. Szczerbiak’s plantar fasciatis injury really does worry me. It’s similar to the injury that Terrell Brandon, just not to the same extent… yet. I hope he’s able to eventually get to 100% again.

Kevin Garnett led the team with 29 points, 9 rebounds and 5 blocked shots. Shooting guards Quincy Lewis and Fred Hoiberg both scored 10 points, with Troy Hudson (8 assists) and Sam Cassell (7 assists) adding 9 points. Latrell Sprewell and Gary Trent scored 8 a piece. Mark Madsen grabbed 9 rebounds.

The Wolves cut down to 12 players on the roster yesterday by waiving Reggie Slater, Jason Collier and Kirk Penney. No real surprises there, and based on a couple of injuries, any of the three could be a Timberwolf on opening night.

Be sure to check back on Monday when I will give my preview of the Minnesota Timberwolves 2003-04 season, and more.

NFL “EXPERT PICKS

Here are our Week 8 picks. First, I need to congratulate Michael Labuda and his wife on the birth of their first child, a daughter named Claire, on Wednesday. Mom, Dad and daughter are all doing well, and we certainly with them the best.

Now, let’s see how well Mr. Labuda was able to pick this week. Be sure to check out our FB Picks web page for bios on each of our experts, week-by-week picks, and our updated standings.

	Seth Stohs	Melissa Olson	Aaron Gleeman	Anthony Fox	Ben Jacobs	David Lee	Michael Labuda	Vic Quick	Mike Brasel
	Seth Speaks	Seth Speaks	Aaron's Baseball Blog	The Bad Twin	Universal Baseball Blog	Braves Buzz	ChiSox Daily	KDUH-TV Sports Director	Fantasy Football Guru
Detroit @ Chicago	Bears	Bears	Bears	Bears	Bears	Lions	Bears	Lions	Bears
Seattle @ Cincinnati	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Bengals	Seahawks
NY Giants @ Minnesota	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings
Cleveland @ New England	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
Carolina @ New Orleans	Saints	Panthers	Saints	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Saints
St. Louis @ Pittsburgh	Rams	Steelers	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Steelers	Steelers	Rams
Dallas @ Tampa Bay	Buccs	Buccs	Buccs	Buccs	Buccs	Cowboys	Buccs	Cowboys	Buccs
Tennessee @ Jacksonville	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans
Denver @ Baltimore	Broncos	Broncos	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Broncos	Broncos	Ravens	Ravens
San Francisco @ Arizona	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers
NY Jets @ Philadelphia	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Jets	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles
Houston @ Indianapolis	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts
Buffalo @ Kansas City	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Miami @ San Diego	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins

Top QB	Trent Green	Daunte Culpepper	Peyton Manning	Peyton Manning	Jeff Garcia	Trent Green	Peyton Manning	Peyton Manning	Marc Bulger
Top RB	Garrison Hearst	Moe Williams	Ricky Williams	Ricky Williams	Ricky Williams	Ricky Williams	Stephen Davis	Moe Williams	Ricky Williams
Top WR	Darrell Jackson	Randy Moss	Randy Moss	Marvin Harrison	Randy Moss	Terrell Owens	Randy Moss	Tai Streets	Marvin Harrison

Summary -

Detroit @ Chicago - Bears 7-2

Seattle @ Cincinnati - Seahawks 8-1

NY Giants @ Minnesota - Vikings 9-0

Cleveland @ New England - Patriots 9-0

Carolina @ New Orleans - Panthers 6-3

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh - Rams 6-3

Dallas @ Tampa Bay - Buccs 7-2

Tennessee @ Jacksonville - Titans 9-0

Denver @ Baltimore - Ravens 5-4

San Francisco @ Arizona - 49ers 9-0

NY Jets @ Philadelphia - Eagles 8-1

Houston @ Indianapolis - Colts 9-0

Buffalo @ Kansas City - Chiefs 9-0

Miami @ San Diego - Dolphins 9-0

Top QB - Peyton Manning (4), Trent Green (2)

Top RB - Ricky Williams (5), Moe Williams (2)

Top WR - Randy Moss (4), Marvin Harrison (2)

Check back over the weekend and see how we did!

WORLD SERIES GAME 5

Oh, I almost forgot… it was Game 5 of the World Series last night too! It was a huge game, with the series tied at 2 games a piece heading into it.

Based on the Yankees starting lineup, you wouldn’t have known it. Joe Torre chose to bench Alfonso Soriano and his 25 strikeouts in favor of Enrique Wilson. Not necessarily a bad move. Personally, I would have tried to move him down to 6^th or 7^th in the order first, and played Wilson in front of Aaron Boone. The second strange thing is that Jason Giambi took himself out of the Yankees lineup shortly before the game starter, complaining of leg pain. Probably from having to play some 1B the past couple of days. It’s only a huge baseball game on baseball’s biggest stage… you’d hate to suck it up and play, Jason!!! You only have the next four months to rest!

The Yankees took the lead right away in the top of the first off Marlins starter, Brad Penny, when Bernie Williams hit a sacrifice fly to score Derek Jeter. Yankees starter, David Wells pitched a 1-2-3 bottom of the inning, even fielding two grounders. But an injury forced Wells from the game. Jose Contreras came in for the bottom of the 2^nd inning. With 2 outs, Game 4 hero Alex Gonzalez came through again, with an RBI ground rule double. The Marlins were disappointed because had the ball not bounced into the stands, two runs would have scored. The disappointment didn’t last long though, as Brad Penny hit the first pitch Contreras threw him, for a 2-run single into center field, giving the Marlins the 3-1 lead.

The Marlins added another run in the 4^th inning, when Derrek Lee scored on a Juan Pierre double.

An Enrique Wilson error in the 5^th inning led to two unearned runs for the Marlins. Mike Lowell hit a 2-run single which scored Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Conine. The Marlins had a 6-1 lead and put the game into cruise control.

The Yankees got a run in the 7^th inning off Penny when Derek Jeter singled to score Nick Johnson. Brad Penny was terrific again. 7 innings, 2 runs, 1 earned run, 2 walks, 4 strikeouts. Dontrelle Willis pitched a scoreless 8^th inning, keeping the game at 6-2.

Braden Looper came in to start the 9^th. He gave up a solo home run to pinch-hitter Jason Giambi, which cut the lead to 6-3. He gave up two more hits, including a double by Enrique Wilson that scored Derek Jeter, and cut the lead to 6-4. At that point, closer Ugueth Urbina came in. With Wilson on second, Bernie Williams hit a deep fly ball to right field. I thought it was gone and the game would be tied, but it was caught on the warning track. The next batter grounded out on a nice play by 1B Derrek Lee, and the game was over. The Marlins took the game 6-4, and took the series lead 3-2.

Game 6 Predictions- (Game 6, back in NYC, Saturday night)

·         Pitching matchup - The Yankees are going to count on Andy Pettitte once again in a must-win game. The Marlins will counter with Mark Redman.

I got an e-mail from Anthony Fox of The Bad Twin last night just saying, “Pick the Yankees again for Game 6. I'd like to see the Marlins win.” And he’s right. I don’t think I have picked the winning team more than a handful of times in my Game predictions, much less picked a score that was even close. Although I picked the Yankees to win in five games, I also wrote this last Saturday in my World Series Preview:

What I’m saying is that I think the Marlins stand a far better chance against the Yankees than I think anyone will really give them. As I’ve mentioned plenty of times in previous postings, I will be cheering for the Marlins. I’m a fan of the underdog. In March, I cheer for the Southern Illinois’ and Central Connecticut State’s in the NCAA basketball tournament. If this would end like I’d want, the Marlins would win the series in 7 games, with all 7 games being dramatic and emotional and fun to watch.

·         So, here is my Game 6 prediction, hoping we get to a Game 7 on Sunday night. The games have been good. They’ve been close, and competitive. Everyone no knows the Marlins are good. Andy Pettitte has been amazing, but how long can he continue to have all great starts??? Well, I think one more start. I think that Pettitte will be great in Yankees Stadium. The Yankees will knock out Redman again (Marlins fans, remember I said the same thing about Carl Pavano). Yankees 8, Marlins 1.

·         Which will bring up Game 7, Sunday night, in New York. It will be Josh Beckett going against Mike Mussina, a rematch of the great Game 3. Both pitchers will be fully rested. Both pitched great in Game 3. Which pitcher will maintain his composure in a Game 7. Because of their major league and big-game experience, the assumption would be that Mike Mussina will outpitch Beckett and the Yankees will win. I disagree. I think Beckett will be great, and Miguel Cabrera will have a huge Game 7, and the final score will be: Yankees 3, Marlins 5.

I won’t have another posting until Monday, at which time we will know the World Series Champion. Again, since I have no real allegiance to either team, I will simply hope for a couple of great, exciting, hopefully competitive, baseball games. I will have a part of me cheering for the Marlins for the above “underdog” reasons. But it doesn’t matter to me. It will be fun to watch Saturday and Sunday nights!

That’s it for this week! I hope you’ve enjoyed the World Series information. I hope that our NFL Picks can help you in some way or another, or you can laugh at us if you want. Remember next week, we’ll start discussing more and more basketball. I really hope you found the Bang for the Buck report interesting. Again, if you have any questions, comments or suggestions, send me an e-mail!

Have a great weekend!

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