Wednesday,
October 15, 2008
UNTOUCHABLE
Be for we get started today, I wanted to mention again that
the SethSpeaks.net Weekly Twins
Podcast has moved to Tuesday nights during the offseason. Although it
was mentioned here yesterday, I don’t know if many got the message. Last night
was the first Tuesday night show and I had no guests and no chat room
participants and no call-ins. That’s right… if you ever wanted to listen to a guy talk for sixty minutes straight, this is your
opportunity. Check out last night’s podcast here, and let
me know what you think. I talked about several Twins topics, commented on
several Twins blogs, had some comments on the Twins 2008 draft and the signing
bonuses they handed out, and I even discussed the big project I am working on.
So, if that’s enough of a teaser, you will want to listen, if for no other
reason.
UNTOUCHABLE
Yesterday, Nick
Nelson wrote an article called Who
Not to Trade. It’s a terrific article and really got me thinking. In
general, I agree with the point of Nick’s article, but wanted to briefly expand
upon it and then get your thoughts. I want to pretend I’m Bill Smith or someone
in the Twins front office. Who would I consider untouchable? Are there five
guys on the roster you would not trade in any package? How many would you trade
ONLY if you got a great return for? It’s an intriguing question in principle,
but in practice, it probably is not so easy to be so cut and dry. So, here are
my thoughts, starting with the area Nick discussed yesterday, the starting
pitchers. Let me also express right up from that if Albert Pujols or Evan Longoria or Hanley
Ramirez was an option, then I would trade even the Untouchables, but those
types of things just don’t happen.
STARTING PITCHERS
·
Scott
Baker – Untouchable… Lock him Up for the next five or six years
now!
·
Francisco
Liriano – Untouchable… Lock him up for the
next five or six years now!
·
Kevin
Slowey – Untouchable… Already we have
heard unfounded rumors that the Mets could trade David Wright. That might be
the one guy that I would trade Slowey to obtain.
·
Nick
Blackburn – In the Right deal – I like pitching depth probably more
than anyone, but if Seattle offered Adrian Beltre
straight-up for Nick Blackburn, I would take it. Blackburn is still a question
mark to me long-term, Beltre is in a contract year
which means he’ll have a monster season, and the Twins would get two extra
draft picks for him in 2010.
·
Glen
Perkins – Maybe slightly less available than Blackburn. That means, it would take the right deal and terms and such to trade
him. I think he’ll have a lot of big league success as a starter. It would take
a JJ Hardy for me to trade him.
·
Anthony
Swarzak, Brian Duensing, Kevin Mulvey, Jeff Manship – All five of these guys could
be dealt to help a position of need. But I would not give any of them away as
they all have value to the Twins. Humber could pitch out of the bullpen. Swarzak and Duensing will have
three years worth of options starting next season. Mulvey
and Manship don’t even need to be added to the 40 man
roster until after the 2009 season. In other words, there is a lot of value in
those guys.
THE BULLPEN
·
Joe
Nathan – Basically untradeable, unless the Twins could acquire two
near-ready hitters at need positions and a couple more big arms for him. But it
would have to be a lot. Money will not be an issue for the Twins in 2009.
·
Pat
Neshek, Craig Breslow, Jose Mijares – Sure, in the right deal. I
wouldn’t label them untouchable, but none are worth trading at this point. They’re
young, talented and can stick around for awhile.
·
Jesse
Crain, Matt Guerrier – Could be traded, but doesn’t make sense. The
Twins would be trading them at 50 cents on the dollar. Both have ability and
can help the 2009 bullpen. Neither is overly expensive. Both will be pitching
for a 2010 contract, with one year of remaining arbitration after the 2009
season.
·
Boof
Bonser, Philip Humber – Both are out of options. Both have a lot of talent.
Both have not fully lived up to their prospect status. Both could get bit parts
in trades, and I would strongly consider trading at least one of them realizing
that their role will be long relief, a role that they could fill with a veteran, or someone like Duensing
or Swarzak. With Mijares
ready to surface and Rob Delaney and
Anthony Slama
lurking, there is no need to keep both.
THE HITTERS
·
Joe
Mauer – Obviously Untouchable… Is there
really any question about this one? They need to add two to four years to his
current contract with ends after the 2010 season.
·
Justin
Morneau – Obviously Untouchable… Is there
really any question about this one?
·
Michael
Cuddyer – see Joe Nathan – It would take receiving a lot for him for me to even
consider dealing Cuddyer. First, due to injury and a
sub-par season, his value is low. Second, his contract still isn’t that high.
Third, he is a right-handed bat with some power, something the Twins do not
have much of.
·
Alexi
Casilla – If you believe that the real Alexi Casilla
is the guy we saw before the injury, he has to be real close to the untouchable
level, at least the ‘you-better-get-something-for-him’ level. If you think 2008
may have been fluky, now might be the best time to deal him. I probably would
keep him around because I think he can still get better and be a solid middle
infielder, and cheap, for several years.
·
Jason
Kubel – Untouchable unless blown away –
Sign him long term, four years.
·
Delmon
Young – Untouchable – I can’t believe how many are so down on
him. There is no way I would trade him right now. First, I think his value may
be lower than when the Twins got him a year ago. Second, I still believe that
he will be a monster player. He just turned 23. Trading him would be crazy.
·
Carlos
Gomez – Untouchable – Turned 23 after Young. Crazy talent,
athleticism, speed and skill. Needs to make better contact and harness his
emotion at times. But he’s amazing defensively, and if you watch him, when he
is focused, you can see that there is a lot of potential for him to get better,
and all those hopes of him adding power actually make a lot of sense.
·
Denard
Span – Probably untouchable unless you think 2008 was a fluke. I
don’t. I think he’s as good a leadoff hitter as the Twins have had since Chuck Knoblauch a dozen years earlier.
His approach at the plate is remarkable. I like his power within context of a
leadoff hitter. Tremendous defense and athleticism.
·
Brian
Buscher, Matt Tolbert, Jason Pridie – Sure, trade them if anyone wants them. I can’t
imagine any opposing GM calling and first asking about these guys. But they are
all replaceable. You just wouldn’t get anything for them.
·
Mike
Redmond – It’s hard to call a backup catcher untouchable, but there
is little reason for the Twins to even entertain the idea of trading him. He’s
as good as any backup catcher in baseball, solid offensively, very good
defensively and clearly a positive leader on the team. Also, the Twins just don’t
have any internal backup catching options ready right now. Why go out and get
another veteran who won’t be as good and will cost just as much?
Arizona Fall League Tuesday Update
·
The Phoenix Desert Dogs scored three
runs in the top of the 9th and won 5-4.
·
Tim
Lahey came in to pitch the 8th
inning for Phoenix and did not allow a run despite giving up one walk.
·
With a one run lead in the 9th,
the ball was given to Anthony Slama who worked a perfect inning, including a
strikeout.
·
Danny
Valencia batted fifth and played 3B. He went 2-4.
·
Dustin
Martin batted sixth and played RF. He went 1-4.
·
Steve
Tolleson was used as a pinch hitter late in
the game and struck out.
Again, be sure to stop by Twinkie Town to continue to vote
for the Twins Prospect List. It’s fun and a great
discussion. With that, I’m going to call it a day. I'd love to hear your
thoughts, comments and ideas for the site, so please send me an e-mail
or post Comments here.
If you would like to help me with some sports-related market research, please e-mail me. I would appreciate
it.