Saturday,
October 10, 2009
What Would You
Do?
Joe Nathan
Edition
I honestly had
already started the blog entry before the Friday night debacle because I do
think that it is an interesting topic for discussion. I also think that it is
important to step back from any one game in making these types of decision.
Much as I don’t think that the Twins front office should decide what to do with
Orlando Cabrera based on what he did in the final couple of weeks. The
Twins should certainly not make any decisions based on Joe Nathan’s blown save
in a must-win against the Yankees in the playoffs. So, here are some quick pros
and cons:
Pros
·
In his six years as Twins closer, he is 22-12 with a 1.87
ERA. His WHIP has been 0.93.
·
246 saves in six seasons.
·
In 2009, he set a Twins record with 47 saves. He was 2-2
with a 2.10 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP.
·
After his strikeout rate dropped to 9.7 and 9.8 in 2007
and 2008, it jumped back up to 11.7 in 2009.
·
Has only pitched between 67.2 and 72.1 innings in any
season with the Twins.
·
Want a closer who dominates the AL Central. I would say
that applies to Nathan:
o Career vs. White Sox -
.151/.212/.277 (.489), 3-2, 24 Saves, 2.06 ERA, 0.77 WHIP
o Career vs. Tigers -
.153/.248/.257 (504), 2-1, 30 Saves, 1.55 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
o Career vs. Royals -
.144/.204/.230 (.434), 3-0, 35 Saves, 0.85 ERA, 0.72 WHIP
o Career vs. Indians -
.201/.258/.360 (.618), 3-1, 26 Saves, 2.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
·
Aside from the Yankees, the only team that Nathan has a
career ERA of over 2.98 is the Texas Rangers (3.72).
·
Called a leader in the clubhouse, and especially in the
bullpen.
·
Is quite active in the community.
Cons
·
Will turn 35 years old in November. How many pitchers
over the age of 34 continue to dominate the way Nathan has? I know, but Mariano Rivera is a freak!
·
Will make $11.25 million in 2010, $11.25 million in 2011,
and has a $13.0 million option for 2012 (with a $2 million buyout). The dollars
aren’t a concern, but coupled with his age, it has to be at least mentioned.
·
Career vs. New York Yankees (Reg. Season Only) –
o .255/.333/.382 (.715),
0-3, 4 Saves, 4.20 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
I knew the Con
list would be significantly shorter. Joe
Nathan has been baseball’s best closer over the past six years. There is
nothing about Joe Nathan, other than
his ability to pitch well against the Yankees, to complain about.
So, in my mind,
the big questions become:
1.
Who takes over as the Twins closer?
2.
What type of package could the Twins get for Joe Nathan?
Let’s start with
the first. As you know, I think that any solid reliever who can dominate can be
a quality closer. To expect anyone to be as good as Nathan has over the past
six years is unrealistic. I do think that Jose
Mijares has the stuff to get lefties and righties
out (even though that wasn’t the case this year). Jesse Crain, if he is what he was in August and September, can
certainly do the job. Jon Rauch? How
about Anthony Slama?
Or, could they bring in some hard thrower who had previously struggled as a
starter to get the job done?
The second
question is obviously much harder to project. Which teams need a closer,
preferably National League teams. But for a dominant
closer with a major track record who keeps himself in tremendous shape, you
could expect to get two very solid prospects and maybe another player or two.
One philosophy
that I can’t argue with is that it is better to trade a player too soon than
too late. There is also a philosophy that says Joe Nathan is really, really good. Why would you trade him? Which
side of the fence would you tend to lean toward? Obviously this is a no lose
situation. If the Twins keep Joe Nathan,
they continue to have one of baseball’s best. If they trade him, it would be
for a package of players that would hopefully contribute to the Twins as long
as Nathan has. To leave your thoughts, particularly additional Pros and Cons,
please click
here.
This is another
of many, many decisions that the Twins General Manager Bill Smith will have to make after the Twins playoff run is complete
(hopefully with their third World Series championship!). And when the Twins
2009 season does come to an end, the TwinsCentric
group will give you a ton of great information to help you understand all of
the decisions the Twins GM and present you with the opportunity to decide what
you would do. (More details to come)