Thursday October 9, 2003

HAPPY BIRTHDAY DAD!!

DISCUSSION QUESTION OF THE WEEK

NLCS GAME 2

ALCS GAME 1

So… Now What?

OK, it’s been four days since the Twins’ season ended with their 3-1 series loss to the Yankees. It’s been enough time for me to be OK. Now I’m ready to give my take on what the Twins should be doing as they are planning for their 2004 season. First, I’m going to go through who I think will be on the 2004 roster. I happen to think that the Twins can maintain a budget of approximately $60 million for next season, keep a majority of the current players, and replace others with some prospects, prospects who’s ceilings may be just as high anyway. I think the team can not only compete in the AL Central, but win the weak division.  I have no way of knowing who the Twins would receive if certain players would be traded, so my roster will be comprised of players currently in the Twins organization. So, I will present who I believe the Twins should have on the roster, then I will take a look at those that I really don’t think should be back.

So, here you go, position-by-position, Seth’s Minnesota Twins 2004 Opening Day roster:

Position Players (14)

Catcher

AJ Pierzynski - ($1 million) - Obviously the question is: When will Joe Mauer be ready? There is some speculation that the Twins may trade Pierzynski this offseason, but I think it would take an amazing offer to pry him from the Twins. The reason, we’ve seen how the Twins seem to want to handle rookies and young players, so I can’t see them just giving Joe Mauer the catchers job. And, Pierzynski is a decent defensive catcher, and a very solid hitting catcher, who did increase his power numbers somewhat this season.

Matthew Lecroy - ($350,000) - Lecroy will be on the team. He was given the DH job for most of the second half of the season. With Morneau around, Lecroy should get some AB’s at the DH and 1B positions as well throughout the season. Yes, I have him listed as a backup catcher, but I can still see him playing five games a week.

First Base

Doug Mientkiewicz - (arbitration eligible - should receive between $3.5 million and $4 million). His defense is just so amazing. It saves the team so many runs throughout a season, and the pitchers extra pitches in innings. But he had another very strong offensive year. No, he will never be the 40 home run bopper at 1B that so many people seem to want, but that’s ok. With his wrist surgery the other day, I really hope he is able to stay healthy for the whole season. I really like his approach at the plate too.

Justin Morneau  - (probably $310,000) - Because of Mientkiewicz’s wrist though, I think it is important that Ron Gardenhire get Justin Morneau some time at 1B as well. Once or twice a week, Mientkiewicz should just get a day off, even if he doesn’t want it. Mientkiewicz is important and they need to keep him healthy, so treating him almost like a catcher would be smart. Morneau needs to play almost every day! We saw him play 1B some the last week of the season and see that he can make the routine play, so if he plays 1B twice a week, that’s good. He should DH the other games!

Second Base

Luis Rivas - (arbitration eligible, should receive between $750,000 and $1 million) - Remember that Rivas is still just 24. He’s still worth keeping around for a relatively cheap dollar amount. His numbers still weren’t good, even for a 2B. But from time to time, he showed flashes that show the potential we all want him to achieve. That said, 2004 is a huge year for Rivas. If he continues to play like he did last year, he will not be back. If he struggles early, he could become a utility player!

Alex Prieto - ($300,000)Really probably just the second utility infielder. He’s not a great player, but could be a good defensive replacement if anything happens to Rivas or Guzman. And, he’s cheap.

Third Base

Michael Cuddyer - (325,000) - As you probably realize, this means that the Twins would not pick up the $4.5 million option for Corey Koskie. Cuddyer showed during the final weeks of the regular season that he could do a good job at 3B. Sure, Koskie is possibly Gold Glove caliber, but Cuddyer’s got a strong arm and good instincts. Corey Koskie is one of my favorite Twins people and characters. I think he’s a very good hitter. He’s just so injury-prone. What I would like to see happen is that the Twins decline to pick up Koskie’s option, and see if he would sign for half of that!  If so, Cuddyer should then be given the RF job or the 2B job and stick with it! (Note - if he’s given the RF job, that would affect Restovich, Ryan or Ford’s spot on the roster.  If he is given the 2B job, Rivas becomes the utility infielder and either Gomez or Prieto wouldn’t be there).

Shortstop

Cristian Guzman -  ($3.5 million) - Another guy who really needs to play better in 2004. No, he won’t be a power hitter. No, he won’t drive in runs. He’s a speed guy and needs to use it. Has really improved his defense the last couple of years, at least with making the routine plays. It will be interesting for both Rivas and Guzman to see how the new turf in the Dome next year will affect them, especially defensively. I also think that Guzman needs to step up, and even if he doesn’t like leading off, he may need to do so.

Chris Gomez - ($600,000) - I don’t know if Gomez will be back, and if he is, it is very possible he could get a shot at the every day 2B job. Given actual playing time, Gomez showed he can be a valuable player to a team. He didn’t ever receive consistent playing time after knee surgery in June.

Left Field

Jacque Jones - ($4.35 million) - I think Jones will be back, and I think he will be back in left field. It was frustrating at times watching Jones play, especially against left-handers, but I mainly mean because of the lingering effects of his groin injury. I look forward to Jones coming back healthy and putting up some really great numbers next year, especially a return of the power he showed in 2002! All that said, it is time for Ron Gardenhire to admit that Jacque Jones can not hit a decent left-handed pitcher. And, he needs to give Jones the day off on those games! As I mentioned the other day, I can no longer blame Jones for his inability to hit lefties as much as I will blame Gardy for continuing to play him against them!

Michael Restovich - ($315,000) - So, against left-handers, the Twins need a platoon guy in LF. I can see that being Michael Restovich early in the season. Restovich played very well when given the opportunity those two weeks in August and deserves this opportunity, even if it means playing just two or three times per week. He’s a big, powerful hitter who may also be given an early shot at the full-time rightfield job as well. Jones is in the last year of his current contract, and Restovich could be the full-time leftfielder in 2005.

Center Field

Torii Hunter - ($6 million) - The money increases, so do the expectations. I think, especially early in the year, that Hunter was pressing. He started off poorly and really never made the adjustments, until the post-season. He started the year taking a lot of walks, but his plate-discipline really deteriorated as the year went on. That said, a poor year from Hunter still accounted for 26 homer runs and over 100 RBI. Best CF in baseball… well, outside of Andruw Jones, and that’s maybe even debatable.

Right Field

Lew Ford - (310,000) - As I see it right now, Lew Ford should be the every day RF to start the season. With Shannon Stewart not appearing on my list, I think Lew Ford is best suited to be a leadoff hitter. Defensively, he’s adequate. He’s got OK range and an average arm. But, his approach at the plate is something I raved about whenever he got plate appearances this season. He takes pitches. He swings only at good pitches. He’s got some pop and puts the ball in play. If the Twins go with Restovich as the every day right fielder, Ford would then become the 4^th outfielder and probably platoon with Jones in LF.

Michael Ryan - (310,000)- Ryan’s September showing makes him a definite candidate for either the RF job, the 4^th or 5^th outfielder and a left-handed bat off the bench. He’s pretty good defensively and can play all three OF positions. He catches what he gets to (if he can see it, that is). He showed pop in his playing time too.

Designated Hitter

Justin Morneau - (310,000) - It’s time.  He needs to play 5-6 times per week. Should DH 4 or 5 times a week and play 1B once or twice a week. His power potential is huge. He needs to be allowed to struggle and make adjustments while playing.

Matthew Lecroy - ($350,000) - Lecroy can DH a couple of times per week, and catch a couple times each week, and even play 1B from time to time.

Pitchers (11)

Starting Pitchers (5)

Johan Santana - (arbitration-eligible, should receive about $1 million, hopefully the team will sign him long-term) - Johan has shown he should have been a starter all along. His ability to strike people out and to mix three great pitches make him very tough to hit. Hopefully, he’ll be able to approach 200 innings in 2004. If so, Cy Young Awards could be in his future!

Brad Radke - ($10 million) - Radke is making huge money! He proved in the second half of the season that he is a big-game type of pitcher. Worth that kind of money?  Well, only if he can perform the whole season the way he did in the second half. I’d like to see him pitch 230 or so innings.

Eric Milton - ($9 million) - Milton, like Radke, will be in the final season of his current contract. He too will be making some big money. The work he put in to get back to the Twins in September was remarkable. Hopefully he has no set backs over the winter and can come back and approach, or hopefully exceed, where he was before the knee injury. I think he can do it. I think he can provide 220 innings and pitch some big innings for the Twins.

Kyle Lohse - ($450,000) - Lohse had a very good season this year. Take away about a 4-6 week period around the All-Star Game, and Lohse could have had a special season. We’ve seen what he can do. He throws hard, and has the change up and curve ball to go with it. He just needs to be able to control those other pitches to take his game to the next level. Not bad for a #4 starter!

Grant Balfour - ($310,000) - I think that the 5^th starter spot will be heavily contested during spring training. There are a number of good options (Balfour, Rincon, Pulido, Thomas, Durbin and others). But I would start with Balfour. I also think that the #5 starter should be a true #5 starters, meaning that he’d only get sport starts when the team didn’t have off days.

Left-Handed Relief Pitchers (2)

JC Romero - (arbitration-eligible, will probably get around $750,000) - Romero took about five steps backward in 2003. Dominant in 2002, Romero could not control any of his pitches in 2003. It’s a big year for Romero too, especially if he ever wants to make any real money!

Carlos Pulido - ($310,000) - I think that Pulido is not only a great story, but also not a bad pitcher. He had a lot of success at AAA, then did well once called to the Twins. When he pitched in relief, he pitched well!

Right-Handed Relief Pitchers (3)

LaTroy Hawkins - ($4 million) - The first of the Big 2 relievers, I think that the Twins will try their best to keep Hawkins around. His performance the past two seasons has been amazing! He’s the most dominant right-handed set up man in the league. That said, he will get a lot of huge offers from throughout the league. I hope the Twins can keep him! I see a 3 year deal worth about $15 million ($4 million in 2004, $5 million in 2005, $6 million in 2006).

Juan Rincon - ($320,000) - Juan Rincon would clearly be the Minnesota Twins 2003 rookie of the year. What a year he had! When he was called up, he pitched infrequently and sporadically. As the year went on, Rincon proved himself a pretty good pitcher. He throws 95 and has a good slider. Perfect for a set up guy! He deserves a shot as the #5 starter, but I do think he is very valuable in the role he performed in this year.

Jesse Crain - ($300,000) - Crain is a big-time prospect. A 2^nd round pick in 2002, Crain climbed through the Twins system this year, staring in Class A and getting better as he progressed to AAA. Currently, he is on the Team USA team (with Joe Mauer and JD Durbin). He throws 98 mph and seems polished. He could be brought along slowly in this role.

Closer (1)

Eddie Guardado - ($4.5 million) - Well, I think Part 2 of the Big 2 will also sign (I see contracts of approximately $4.5 million in 2004, $5.5 million in 2005 and $6.5 million in 2006). I just think that the Twins value pitching and defense so much, they will make every effort to keep their two best relievers intact if they can (although, I think the Yankees and Braves will put a strong effort to add them!) I never feel overly confident with Guardado coming in for the 9^th, but he’s been very successful in his 2 seasons as the Twins closer.

So, there you have it, my look at a potential 2004 roster. If you add up those contracts, it comes to under $54 million. But, don’t forget that the Twins will be paying injured Joe Mays $5.75 million to rehab from Tommy John surgery.  Hopefully the Twins will be able to collect some insurance on Mays contract. If Terry Ryan can convince owner Carl Pohlad that this team can win, I think he’d OK this roster.

You may be asking yourself, what would the possible lineups look like? Well here are a couple of attempts, one against righties and one against lefties:

Who’s Gone??

Corey Koskie - As I mentioned, I would love for him to be back. I really would. I think he can be so good. He just needs to stay healthy, and if he could, then the $4.5 million is really a very fair deal.

Dustan Mohr - Younger, better 5^th outfield options. I love Mohr’s hustle, and because Gardy seems to love him so much, he may be back. I hope not, and I hope he can go somewhere that he would get a chance to contribute.

Rick Reed - And not soon enough. Fortunately, he whined about injuries all year and went on the DL enough times that he didn’t reach the number of innings necessary for his $8 million option to be picked up. And there is much rejoicing in the clubhouse and among Twins fans!

Denny Hocking - I’m guessing he’ll sign a contract to play in Anaheim for next year. If not, I wouldn’t mind him staying with the Twins as a utility man, if he’s willing to sign for about $450,000.

Shannon Stewart - So important to the Twins second half run, but I just can’t see them giving him the money that I would assume he’s earned with this performance. He made $6 million this year (all paid by the Blue Jays) and I don’t think the Twins can justify him making that much with all of their outfield prospects. If they do, and I’m not saying it would be a bad thing, then they need to trade Jacque Jones and a couple of their other outfield prospects. So, to Shannon, Thank You, and good luck!

Kenny Rogers - I can’t see the Twins paying a couple million to a 5^th starter in 2004. Pitchers one through four appear set, and I hope the Twins go young with their #5 and don’t give the other starters extra days off. He would be good depth in case of injury though. Despite average (at best) numbers this season, Rogers was very valuable to the Twins.

Who’s Next??

Joe Mauer - Everyone knows about him, so I won’t go into any detail. He’s a monster catching prospect who will unseat AJ Pierzynski as the Twins catcher. When will he get the call? That is the Twins big question! 

JD Durbin - Durbin is a great pitching prospect, but I think that when he is called up, it should be to start as a regular, not as the 5^th starter. I think that both Mauer and Durbin should continue to progress upwardly together. I would start them both at AA again, and if they are ready at some point in the year, I think they should both be called up at the same time.

Rob Bowen - Got very little opportunity to play in the almost two months he was with the club. He’s in a tough spot. With AJ around, Pierzynski catches a lot. And, the next Twins catcher will be Mauer. So, Bowen will, at best, be a backup catcher, if he stays with the Twins.

Brad Thomas - May have a shot at the #5 starter spot, or as a 2^nd left-handed reliever. Thomas is old enough not to be a prospect anymore, but it was exciting to see him pitch late in the season and see the speed gun hit 98!! I didn’t realize he had that in him.

Adam Johnson - I don’t see him ever making it with the Twins. Does he have any trade value though?  I can’t imagine they could get much for him. Will another year at AAA do him any good?

Josh Rabe - Another OF prospect who will probably start at AAA and get plenty of playing time.

Jason Kubel - Another OF who is considered a top prospect. Probably will play most of 2004 in AA.

Terry Tiffee - Developed into a pretty decent 3B prospect. If the Twins chose to not have Koskie next year, Tiffee may have an opportunity to fight for the 3B job after a very solid AA season in 2003. He’s not a big-time prospect, but should get a good, fair look in spring training.

Jason Bartlett - Probably will play all of 2004 in AAA, but could be the Twins starting shortstop in 2005.

Luis Rodriguez - Played 2B for AAA Rochester all of the 2003 season. Had some success. Probably warrants at least a look in Spring Training.

So there you have it, my choices to be on the 2004 Minnesota Twins rosters, who won’t be back, and what other minor leaguers may get an opportunity to contribute. As I’ve mentioned before though, I really don’t envy the job that Terry Ryan has in front of him this winter.

DISCUSSION QUESTION OF THE WEEK

I’m sure you’ve got plenty of comments on my thoughts on the 2004 Twins. We’re going to make this another discussion question.  There are many new readers to the site since the last time we had a Discussion Question, so let me again explain how this works.

First, I will ask a question, and I would like some interaction with the readers, letting me know what they think. So, second, think about the question and how you would answer it, then send me an e-mail with your answer. Finally, next Thursday, I will write up a posting composed of your thoughts on the question. Hopefully I’ll get plenty of e-mails from you, so that we get some varying opinions.

Take a look at some previous Discussion Questions of the Week:

8/8/2003 - Who Do You Want To Talk To?

8/15/2003 - All-Time Best Lineups

8/29/2003 - Your Thoughts on the Twins

9/5/2003 - Is Terry Ryan "The Man" or "The Goat"?

So, here’s the Question of This Week:

“The Twins had a very good 2003 season. Terry Ryan has some very difficult roster decisions to make. IF YOU WERE TERRY RYAN, THE TWINS GM, WHAT WOULD YOU DO? WHAT WOULD YOUR ROSTER LOOK LIKE IN 2004?”

Thanks for thinking about it, and I can’t wait to hear the responses.  Please be sure to e-mail me.

NLCS GAME 2 (CUBS 12, MARLINS 3)

In Game 1, the Marlins powered their way to an 11^th inning win on a home run by Mike Lowell. Last night, the Cubs showed all the power! The Marlins had scoring opportunities in the first two innings, but were unable to score off Cubs starter Mark Prior. Randall Simon knocked in 2 with a single to give the Cubs a 2-0 lead after 1 inning. Kenny Lofton singled in Paul Bako in the 2^nd, but the story of that inning was a 495 home run to dead center off the bat of Sammy Sosa. That gave the Cubs a 5-0 lead. After Aramis Ramirez hit a solo home run in the 3^rd, the Cubs scored two more runs to give them an 8-0 lead. In the 5^th inning Alex Gonzalez hit a two-run homer and Mark Grudzielanek doubled in another run to give the Cubs an 11-0 lead.  In the Top of the 6^th, the Marlins got solo homers from Derrek Lee and Miguel Cabrera to cut into the lead, but in the bottom of the inning, Gonzalez hit his second homer of the game. The Marlins got an unearned run in the 8^th which completed the scoring, and the Cubs even the series at 1 with the 12-3 win!

Game 3 is on Friday night in Florida. The Cubs will have Kerry Wood on the mound facing the Marlins Mark Redman. I see another high scoring win for the Cubs. Prediction - Cubs 7, Marlins 1.

ALCS GAME 1 (RED SOX 5, YANKEES 2)

Yes, I am surprised. I may have been harsh on Tuesday saying that I would be cheering for the Yankees because of the actions of Manny Ramirez and Derek Lowe. I got some criticism for my comments, but I can’t take them back and don’t want to. But, to cheer for the Yankees, I don’t know if I can do that either. So, I’m just going to enjoy the baseball and the rivalry that is Yankees/Red Sox.

Last night, the Red Sox used some power to get the early lead and Tim Wakefield made it hold up. David Ortiz hit a 2-run homer in the top of the 4^th. In the top of the 5^th, Todd Walker hit a deep fly ball to right field. A fan touched the ball right before it go to the foul poll. Would it have hit the foul ball, and been a home run)? Or, would it have just missed to the foul side and been a long strike? The right field umpire called it a foul ball. He was the closest to the play. However, he was overruled by three other umpires who, for some reason, thought they had a better view of the ball. It was close, after about 350 replays of it, I was never convinced either way as to whether it should have fair or foul. My point would be: What is the purpose of the right field umpire, if not to make that call???

Anyway, Walkers home run made the score 3-0. Later in that half-inning, Manny Ramirez hit an opposite field home run (And actually jogged around the bases right away) to up the lead to 4-0.  In the 7^th inning, Kevin Millar singled to score Manny from second base.

The Yankees scored two runs in the bottom of the 7^th, but it wasn’t enough.

Tim Wakefield gave up just 2 hits and 2 runs in 6 innings. The rest of the bullpen did well too. Scott Williamson picked up the save. If starting pitching wins, well, Tim Wakefield certainly beat Mike Mussina.

So, Game 2 is tonight, and it matched Andy Pettitte against Derek Lowe. The assumption is that this would be a low scoring game, and I don’t doubt that. Prediction - Yankees 4, Red Sox 1.

That’s it for today!  If you have any questions or comments on anything written today, please be sure to send me an e-mail, and I will address them! Also, be sure to check out yesterday’s Minnesota Wild Preview! Have a great Thursday!

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