Friday, October 8, 2004

SethSpeaks Awards

NFL “EXPERT” PICKS

 
2004 SethSpeaks Baseball Awards

Good morning everyone and thanks again for stopping by this website! My daily hit counts are up pretty dramatically in the past few days. I hope that you are enjoying what you have been reading. I’m very happy about that and hope that I am doing well enough for you to stick around for awhile.

By the time you read this, I will actually be out of town, on my way to the Twin Cities for the Twins games on Friday night (7:00) and Saturday afternoon (3:00). I am excited to get down there.

It will be Carlos Silva against Kevin Brown tonight. Silva MUST keep the ball down and not allow homers to the Bombers if the Twins want to have a chance. I certainly feel he is capable. And, Kevin Brown is not the same Kevin Brown as he was early in the season, much less early in his career. The Twins must continue to hit well. The Twins also need to get off to a good start, particularly with the bats. It would be good for their morale to get a lead.

Just a quick note to all of the second-guessers out there. I understand your need to rant following such a devastating loss on Wednesday night. Believe me, that one hurt to watch and there were plenty of opportunities to question Ron Gardenhire. In my mind, I asked myself what I would do in certain situations. (I do this all the time when watching ball games) Would I have had Lew Ford pinch hit for Jason Kubel in the 8th? Would I have left Joe Nathan in for the 12th? Would I have pinch hit for Henry Blanco?

In some cases, I probably would have done exactly what Gardy did. In other case, maybe not. But to act as if any of the decisions he made were just flat-out stupid is, well, flat-out stupid. Every decision that he made throughout the game made sense in some ways. Sure, a couple of them, namely keeping Nathan in for the 12th, turned out really poorly. However, what happens if Nathan gets the Yankees 1-2-3? What if Jeter grounds into a double play? Gardy looks like a genius and Nathan looks like a warrior. What happens if Gardy throws JC Romero into the 12th inning? He’s been horrible. Say he gets shelled, then what? Gardy should have left Nathan in, right? What if he puts Jesse Crain into that situation (and remember, I’m a huge Crain fan!) to face Jeter and A-Rod, and he gives up a walk and a 2-run, game-ending homer? Then Gardy shouldn’t have thrown a guy with six weeks of big league experience into that situation… and will he ever recover?

Should Gardy have started Jason Kubel instead of Lew Ford? Well, I am of the belief that based on what Ford did (basically being the Twins best, most consistent hitter the whole season) during the season, he should be in the lineup every day! That said, I can totally understand the reasoning behind Gardenhire’s decision. In hindsight, it was a bad thing to have Kubel in the lineup, but what if Kubel went 3-4 with two homers and 6 RBI? 

My point is that I do understand second-guessing, but the extreme level that Gardy has been scrutinized for his game-decisions Wednesday night is absolutely ridiculous! I also understand that it is the playoffs and everything is looked at with a fine-toothed comb and under a microscope, especially when your opponent is the Yankees. But a manager’s job is to make decisions at times before and throughout a game. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. Sometimes, you make decisions and then the players either come through or fail. It is the way this game works, and it is part of what we all love about it.

How ‘bout we just all enjoy the series? Let’s not become like the Yankees fans! We don’t need to! We witnessed a great baseball game. Let’s leave it at that and cheer the team this weekend!

Do you have any thoughts on that? If so, feel free to e-mail me. I’d love to hear your thoughts.

But today, since I am gone, I am going to post my 2004 SethSpeaks MLB AWARDS. I have looked at the numbers and thought through all of these awards, and have ranked the top managers, rookies, Cy Young candidates and MVP candidates in both leagues. I am not going to throw too many numbers at you. I am just going to express my thoughts on the awards.

National League Manager of the Year  

1.)    Bobby Cox, Atlanta Braves

2.)    Tony Larussa, St. Louis Cardinals

3.)    Phil Garner, Houston Astros

The Braves lost Gary Sheffield, Javy Lopez, Vinny Castilla and Greg Maddux. Their pitching staff was questionable at best. Yet somehow Cox led the Braves to the division title… again… easily! Larussa is a fine manager, but that team had so much talent that you and I could write up a lineup featuring those guys and still win. What he was able to get from the pitching staff warrants respect. And many people will select Phil Garner because of what he managed the Astros to in the second half. And he does deserve a lot of credit. But to me, Bobby Cox is the clear-cut winner.

American League Manager of the Year

1.)    Mike Scioscia, Anaheim Angels

2.)    Ron Gardenhire , Minnesota Twins

3.)    Joe Torre , New York Yankees

This one is a tough one. I have been flip-flopping my thoughts on it for the last couple of weeks. Being a Twins fan, I would love to give it to Gardy. And based on all that they lost in the off-season, and all of the injuries that they faced during the season, Gardy again led the Twins to the title. Obviously he is being second-guessed for Game 2 decisions, and he was second-guessed by many Twins fans much of the year, but he has the respect of his players, and continues to lead the Twins. A lot of times, managers of teams with talent and expectations don’t get enough credit for bringing it all together. Torre’s demeanor just works so perfectly with that team and those egos. But I have to give the award to Mike Scioscia. Like the Twins, the Angels had a lot of injuries, and yet, they won the AL West and won 93 games. Troy Glaus, Darin Erstad, Garrett Anderson, Bengie Molina, and David Eckstein all missed time. Their pitching rotation was awful early. Basically, they came up big down the stretch and Scioscia does deserve credit. Maybe, to me, he wins this award over Gardenhire because of the final weekend when his team beat the A’s head-to-head.

National League Rookie of the Year

1.)    Jason Bay , Pittsburgh Pirates

2.)    Khalil Greene, San Diego Padres

3.)    Akinori Osuna, San Diego Padres

All year, I was saying the Greene should win the award. He was solid both offensively and defensively all year. But then he got hurt late in the season. The only reason I would not have given it to Bay earlier in the season was simply because he missed more than a month at the start of the season. But in the end, Bay was the better rookie and deserves the award. Osuna was just a very solid reliever for the Padres the entire season. His numbers are very impressive!

American League Rookie of the Year

1.)    Bobby Crosby, Oakland A’s

2.)    Zack Greinke , Kansas City Royals

3.)    Shingo Takatsu, Chicago White Sox

It is a very weak group of rookies in the American League. Had Lew Ford spent one fewer day with the Twins in 2003, he would be the unanimous choice for rookie of the year. Had Justin Morneau spent two less days with the Twins in 2003, he would certainly get major consideration despite the fact that he played just half of the year with the Twins. But we have what we have. Takatsu was solid in the Sox bullpen most of the year and even as closer late in the season. Greinke was very impressive, especially considering his age. His problem is that the Royals were so terrible that it will mask how well he pitched because of his record. That leaves Crosby , and he has been solid. He has put up good power numbers. He just strikes out so much, but he did play almost every day. Weak class of rookies, but I’d give Bobby Crosby my vote.

National League Cy Young Award

1.)    Randy Johnson , Arizona Diamondbacks

2.)    Roger Clemens, Houston Astros

3.)    Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros

4.)    Jason Schmidt, San Francisco Giants

5.)    Carl Pavano , Florida Marlins

Unlike the MVP Award, the Cy Young is given to the best pitcher for that season. As you know, I think that the “Win” stat is pretty much useless in determining how good a pitcher is. Ask Brad Radke and Kenny Rogers! Most of the year, I was ready to give this award to Jason Schmidt, but he did struggle down the stretch. That Astros 1-2 punch is tough! Both were great all season. Oswalt was the only 20-game winner in the National League. Carl Pavano was a huge surprise, to me at least, because he had an incredible season, and the Marlins really needed that! Maybe breaking up with Alyssa Milano makes a guy a better pitcher. But when it comes to the best pitcher in the league, it has to be Randy Johnson. He plays on an absolutely horrible Diamondback team, so his Win-Loss record is barely over .500 (16-14). But he led the league in almost every other pitching category including strikeouts. Randy Johnson is my NL Cy Young choice.

American League Cy Young Award

1.)    Johan Santana , Minnesota Twins

2.)    Curt Schilling, Boston Red Sox

3.)    Mariano Rivera , New York Yankees

4.)    Joe Nathan , Minnesota Twins

5.)    Francisco Cordero , Texas Rangers

On this site, I have probably talked about Johan Santana too much. Clearly, he has the best pitching numbers of anyone in baseball. Schilling was great again, but there is no questioning who was better this year. Then, to me, there were no other starting pitchers even worthy of discussion in the American League, so I went with three dominant closers. Rivera had a very strong year. Joe Nathan was more than Twins fans could have hoped for. And Francisco Cordero was a positive light at the end of games for Rangers, something that they have not had in a long time! But clearly, Johan Santana earned the AL Cy Young Award this year!

National League MVP

1.)    Barry Bonds, San Francisco Giants

2.)    Adrian Beltre, Los Angeles Dodgers

3.)    Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals

4.)    Scott Rolen, St. Louis Cardinals

5.)    Jim Edmonds, St. Louis Cardinals

6.)    Lance Berkman, Houston Astros

7.)    Bobby Abreu, Philadelphia Phillies

8.)    Moises Alou, Chicago Cubs

9.)    Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs

10.) JD Drew, Atlanta Braves

They should really have two awards here. One should go to Barry Bonds. He is the most dominant player in the game. He gets on over 60% of the time. No one pitches to him and yet he’s still in the top 5 in the league in homers. He just changes the game. And, he single-handedly led the Giants to their finish, just one game out of the playoffs. The award for NL MVP (Non-Bonds Division) in my mind, goes to the Dodgers Adrian Beltre. Finally, he came through on his incredible potential. The Dodgers are a bad offensive team, yet Beltre put up incredible numbers and because of them, the Dodgers won the NL West. You could argue that a couple of the Cardinals put up equivalent numbers to Beltre. However, because I have Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds , how do you select a most valuable. As you can guess, I don’t believe that the term “valuable” is all about the numbers. That said, I don’t believe that Henry Blanco is the Twins MVP. But the Cardinals would have been a great team without any one of those players still. I realize that may not be fair, but that is my definition of valuable. The National League really had a lot of players. All five of the guys I have listed as number six through ten would warrant serious consideration if they played in the AL. Lance Berkman and Bobby Abreu are vastly underrated. The Cubs had a couple of guys that put up huge numbers. And JD Drew finally put it all together and stayed healthy (for the most part) all season!

American League MVP

1.)    Vlad Guerrero, Anaheim Angels

2.)    Johan Santana , Minnesota Twins

3.)    Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox

4.)    David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox

5.)    Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles

6.)    Gary Sheffield , New York Yankees

7.)    Hideki Matsui , New York Yankees

8.)    Joe Nathan , Minnesota Twins

9.)    Mark Teixeira , Texas Rangers

10.) Johnny Damon, Boston Red Sox

Johan Santana had one of the best second halves by a pitcher in the history of modern day baseball. What he did and what he meant to the Twins can not be measured by what he did every fifth day. What he did every fifth day wins him the Cy Young Award. I can’t give a pitcher the MVP Award when he pitches in 35 games and a positional player plays in 160 or so. But he deserves it and will receive a lot of votes, so I’ll give him a second place vote. To me, the AL MVP has to be the Angels Vlad Guerrero. It shouldn’t even be close. For many of the reasons that I gave Mike Scioscia the Manager Award, Guerrero led a depleted Angels team to the playoffs. He was particularly stellar down the stretch! The Red Sox killer combo of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were incredible again, but had each other. Miguel Tejada went to Baltimore and had arguably his best season. RBIs are a result of other things (like base runners on when he’s up), but he had 150 of them, which means he came through in those opportunities a LOT!.  The Yankees had a lot of MVP candidates. Gary Sheffield, Hideki Matsui and Alex Rodriguez all had similar numbers and all deserve consideration. The Rangers four infielders all warrant discussion. Teixeira had probably the best overall numbers, but you can’t overlook the role of Michael Young on that team. Likewise, Johnny Damon was quite the catalyst for that potent Red Sox lineup. Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera and Francisco Cordero all should receive votes too. They at least all contributed in 70 or more games.

This is a very quick version of the award winners in baseball this year. I know it isn’t full of statistics and numbers, but you know the numbers. And everyone is throwing you the numbers. Because of my travel plans, I really don’t have a lot of time to dive into the specific numbers, but so you know, I have looked at them and compared and analyzed them.

 

NFL EXPERT PICKS

Week 5 and the Vikings have another game! With the Twins games, I’m still not up for them yet. Michael Bennett is out after knee surgery. Onterrio Smith is now serving his suspension. So, it will be a combination of Mewelde Moore and Larry Ned against the Houston Texans. I am confident that they both can be effective, particularly Moore ! The defense will need to put some pressure on David Carr. Chris Hovan has finally been demoted, so that should help them out!


PREDICTIONS: Vikings 34, Texans 13.

 And now let’s get to our expert’s picks this week:
 

Seth Stohs Melissa Olson Aaron Gleeman Ben Jacobs John Bonnes Ryan Maus
SethSpeaks SethSpeaks Aaron's BB Blog Hardball Times Twins Geek Twins Chatter
Detroit @ Atlanta Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons
Miami @ New England Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans Saints Buccs Saints Saints Saints Saints
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Browns Browns
Minnesota @ Houston Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings
NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Giants
Oakland @ Indianapolis Colts Colts Colts Colts Colts Colts
Jacksonville @ San Diego Chargers Chargers Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Chargers
Buffalo @ NY Jets Jets Jets Jets Jets Jets Jets
Arizona @ San Francisco Cardinals 49ers Cardinals Cardinals 49ers Cardinals
St. Louis @ Seattle Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
Carolina @ Denver Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos Panthers
Baltimore @ Washington Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens  Redskins Ravens
Tennessee @ Green Bay Packers Packers Packers Packers Packers Packers
           
           
Michael Labuda David Bergner David Bloom Vic Quick Mike Brasel Jeremy Kovash
ChiSox Daily Baseball Savant Ya Gotta Believe KDUH-Sports FFB Guru Wolf Lake Mgr
Detroit @ Atlanta Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons Falcons
Miami @ New England Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans Saints Saints Buccs Saints Saints Saints
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
Minnesota @ Houston Texans Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings
NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Giants Giants Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Oakland @ Indianapolis Colts Colts Colts Colts Colts Colts
Jacksonville @ San Diego Chargers Jaguars Chargers Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars
Buffalo @ NY Jets Jets Jets Jets Jets Jets Jets
Arizona @ San Francisco 49ers 49ers Cardinals Cardinals 49ers 49ers
St. Louis @ Seattle Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
Carolina @ Denver Broncos Broncos Panthers Broncos Broncos Broncos
Baltimore @ Washington Redskins Ravens Ravens Ravens Redskins Ravens
Tennessee @ Green Bay Packers Packers Packers Packers Packers Packers

 Summary:

Detroit @ Atlanta – Falcons 12-0
Miami @ New England – Patriots 12-0
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans – Saints 10-2
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh – Steelers 10-2
Minnesota @ Houston – Vikings 11-1
NY Giants @ Dallas – Giants 9-3
Oakland @ Indianapolis – Colts 12-0
Jacksonville @ San Diego – Jaguars 7-5
Buffalo @ NY Jets – Jets 12-0
Arizona @ San Francisco – Tie 6-6
St. Louis @ Seattle – Seahawks 12-0
Carolina @ Denver – Broncos 10-2
Baltimore @ Washington – Ravens 10-2
Tennessee @ Green Bay – Packers 12-0

On that note, have yourself a GREAT weekend! Enjoy the Twins games. Don’t forget to watch the 13th ranked Gophers football team play the 14th ranked Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor at 11 on Saturday! Should be a great game!

If you have any questions or comments on anything, please e-mail me!

Have a great weekend! See you on Monday!

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