Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Playoff Predictions

 

Good Morning! Today begins the second season, the playoffs. 162 (or 163 as it were) games are complete, and now the season the "matters" is upon us. As I have mentioned before, I am not a huge fan of what the playoffs stand for. I choose to prefer the regular season. To me, 162 games is enough games to tell me who the best team in the game is. The playoffs? Well, it is simply telling us what team is hottest right now, or most healthy, or really, is getting all the breaks right now. The Wild Card wins this thing a lot. The best team doesn't always win the World Series, but the World Series championship is all that seems to matter to anyone, especially in terms of history. The champion will be the team that wins three short series in a row, the glorified end of the season championship. But at the same time, as much as I downplay the playoffs and World Series champions, there is something wonderful about these series. Tim Laudner or Steve Lombardozzi can play hero. Everything is so magnified and that can be great for unknown players who do anything to help their team. It can also be horrible for stars that dare to not hit well over a small sample size of games (see Vlad Guerrero and Alex Rodriguez circa 2007). The playoffs are here. What do you think? What are your thoughts on the playoffs? And, finally, what are your predictions.

 

Today, I am going to take a look at the four playoff series and try to do a little analysis. Hopefully you will enjoy, and feel free to discuss:

 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies (Wild Card)

  Phillies

Score

Rockies Thoughts
C Carlos Ruiz = Yorvit Torrealba Pretty even, although Ruiz is hurt. Hopefully Coste plays, and if he does, advantage Phillies.
1B Ryan Howard < Todd Helton Love Helton, but Ryan Howard is a monster
2B Chase Utley <<< Kaz Matsui Matsui is better than you think... Utley is as good as it gets!
3B Wes Helms/Greg Dobbs >> Garrett Atkins Hopefully the Twins can steal Atkins in the offseason!
SS Jimmy Rollins < Troy Tulowitski The NL MVP vs the NL ROY... closer than you think, but...
LF Pat Burrell >> Matt Holliday Burrell had a great 2nd half... Holliday is one of the best!
CF Aaron Rowand << Ryan Spilborghs/Cory Sullivan Rowand is really good... maybe the Twins can get him too!
RF Shane Victorino > Brad Hawpe Hawpe has the power, Victorino does a little of everything.
G1 SP Cole Hamels < Jeff Francis Great matchup of two great young starters. Hamels was much better, but concerns of Hamels' arm give him just a slight edge.
G2 SP Kyle Kendrick < Mark Redman Redman is in the matchup... says a lot.
G3 SP Kyle Lohse = Franklyn Morales/Ubaldo Jiminez Those young Rockies starters are going to be incredible!
G4 SP Jamie Moyer = Josh Fogg Veterans. Moyer came through on Sunday. Fogg wasn't good Monday.
G5 SP Cole Hamels < Jeff Francis Great a Game 5 matchup!
Bullpen Gordon/Romero/Alfonseca > Fuentes/Herges/Hawkins Both are pretty good, but I can't go with Romero!
Closer Brett Myers = Manny Corpas This is a closer call too!
 

10

> by 4

6

 

 

Summary/Prediction

So, by my very scientific count, if this were a seven game series, the Phillies would win in six games. However, it is just a five game series, so I will project Phillies in four games.

 

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs

  Diamondbacks

Score

Cubs Thoughts
C Chris Snyder < Jason Kendall Kendall is bad.
1B Tony Clark/Connor Jackson > Derrek Lee D Lee is great, but the D-Backs 1B combo has a lot of power
2B Augie Ojeda > Mark DeRosa Yes, that Augie Ojeda... The O Dawg got hurt.
3B Mark Reynolds >> Aramis Ramirez Reynolds had a hot start, but hasn't been good for awhile. Lots of K.
SS Stephen Drew < Ryan Theriot Based on numbers, I may be wrong, but Drew is better.
LF Eric Byrnes = Alfonso Soriano may think Soriano, but Byrnes does more.
CF Chris Young << Jacque Jones and I really like Jacque, but Chris Young is terrific... just don't look at BA!
RF Justin Upton/Jeff Salazar > Cliff Floyd/Craig Monroe veterans or youth... which will it be?
G1 SP Brandon Webb < Carlos Zambrano I'll take the cool, calm Webb and his sinker ball over the energetic enigma
G2 SP Doug Davis = Ted Lilly A couple of similar pitchers with similar stuff and makeup.
G3 SP Livan Hernandez > Rich Hill Rich Hill finally got a chance. His stuff will top Livan's experience
G4 SP Micah Owings < Sean Marshall or Jason Marquis Marquis may not even make the roster, Owings will likely PH sometime
G5 SP Brandon Webb < Carlos Zambrano In a Game 5, you definitely want cool and calm!
Bullpen Lyons/Slaten/Pena < Marmol/Howry/Wuertz Look at the numbers of the unknown D-Backs relievers!
Closer Jose Valverde << Ryan Dempster Valverde is that good. Dempster is that non-good!
 

10

> by 4

6

 

 

Summary/Prediction

So, by my very scientific count, it may not be as surprising as many may think if the Diamondbacks continue to 'surprise' and win this series over the Yankees of the NL. I do think this will be a good series, but I will project Diamondbacks in four games.

 

Boston Red Sox vs. LA Angels of Anaheim

  Red Sox

Score

Angels Thoughts
C Jason Varitek < Mike Napoli/Jeff Mathis Varitek, not Jeter, is the most overrated player in baseball.
1B Kevin Youklis = Casey Kotchman This is a good matchup, although Youk has been less than 100%
2B Dustin Pedroia < Howie Kendrick 2007 AL Rookie of the Year vs future multiple All-Star participant
3B Mike Lowell << Chone Figgins Lowell has been great. Figgins struggling again.
SS Julio Lugo >> Orlando Cabrera Lugo isn't as bad as his overall numbers say. Cabrera is underrated
LF Manny Ramirez < Garrett Anderson Manny's less than 100% but probably still better
CF Coco Crisp = Reggie Willits Good matchup, although I expect to see some Jacoby!
RF JD Drew >> Vlad Guerrero AL MVP Runner-Up in my mind versus underachiever
DH David Ortiz <<< Juan Rivera No contest. Rivera could surprise, but hasn't played much this year.
G1 SP Josh Beckett = John Lackey Beckett - 3.27 ERA; Lackey - 3.01 ERA
G2 SP Daisuke Matsuzaka > Kelvim Escobar Dice-K has struggled. Escobar remains underrated.
G3 SP Curt Schilling > Jered Weaver Schill's not healthy. Weaver could shine.
G4 SP Josh Beckett = John Lackey Rematch. I bet we'll hear about Beckett's Marlins days, but don't forget Lackey starting Game 7 as a rookie for the Angels
G5 SP Daisuke Matsuzaka > Kelvim Escobar Rematch
Bullpen Okajima/Gagne/Timlin < Shields/Speier/Oliver Neither bullpen has been real strong...
Closer Jonathan Papelbon = Francisco Rodriguez Although both closers are top of the line.
 

9

> by 2

7

 

 

Summary/Prediction

So, by my very scientific count, I should pick the Red Sox in five games. However, in the playoffs, pitching is what wins, and I have the Angels with better matchups in this series, so I will project Angels in five games.

 

Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees

  Indians

Score

Yankees Thoughts
C Victor Martinez < Jorge Posada Posada had a great season, but Martinez is a difference-maker
1B Ryan Garko < D. Mientkiewicz/J. Giambi says more about the Yankees options
2B Asdrubal Cabrera >> Robinson Cano Cano is excellent. Cabrera was the spark the led Cleveland the last 2 mths
3B Casey Blake >> Alex Rodriguez Blake is solid. A-Rod is the best in the game. Get over last year already!
SS Jhonny Peralta > Derek Jeter Peralta is really good. Jeter is excellent, and it has nothing to do with his experience in the playoffs, leadership or 'clutchness'. He's just great, and the announcers need to leave it at that.
LF Kenny Lofton > Hideki Matsui/J.Damon Matsui likely won't play against CC, so Damon could see LF time.
CF Grady Sizemore << Melky Cabrera Melky's great defensively... Grady's great all-around.
RF Franklin Gutierrez > Bobby Abreu Gutierrez came on nicely. Abreu is better than his numbers would say
DH Travis Hafner < Jason Giambi/Johnny Damon This one isn't really close either, and Hafner was better in Sept.
G1 SP CC Sabathia << Chien-Ming Wang Wang is good, but Sabathia is a true Ace who should win the Cy
G2 SP Fausto Carmona << Andy Pettitte Carmona is just tough. I hope he can handle the pressure. AP will.
G3 SP Jake Westbrook = Roger Clemens Westbrook isn't great. Neither is Clemens any more.
G4 SP Paul Byrd = Mike Mussina or Phil Hughes Byrd vs Mussina is pretty even, edge to Byrd, but if Hughes starts, the Yankees have a shot.
G5 SP CC Sabathia << Chien-Ming Wang I'd want an Ace in Game 5 too!
Bullpen Betancourt/Perez < Chamberlain/Vizcaino/Bruney Two talented relievers is better than one!
Closer Joe Borowski >> Mariano Rivera Rivera isn't great, but Borowski is not good at all
 

11

> by 2

9

 

 

Summary/Prediction

So, this too should be a very good, very closer series. The Indians certainly have the advantage in starting pitching and probably in the bullpen as well. Well, up to the closer spot. I think that the Indians will play well enough to win the series. I just have a feeling the Borowski will blow one. I think that Cleveland can overcome one Borowski blown save, but if he blows two, they have no chance. Offensively, the Yankees have the advantage in most cases, but again, pitching beats hitting, right? So, my projection will be...  Indians in five games.

 

SUMMARY

So there you have it, my preview and prediction on the four Divisional Series. As you can see by my calculations (and of course they are subject to personal opinion), all four series could be very close. I really would not expect any sweeps. However, momentum does play a role in the playoffs and if a team wins the first two games of the series, things change. Again, the regular season means pretty much nothing when it comes to the playoffs. The media will become as much a story for the stories they tell. We will get sick of Tim McCarver talking about the greatness of Derek. We will be tired of hearing about A-Rod's struggles last year. We will tire of hearing former ball players spewing cliché after cliché while clearly simply spouting off what they are reading in the media notes. But the important thing to remember is that the game is still the game, and it is a great game! If you're like me, you will want to just put the game on mute and enjoy the games.

 

Phillies over Rockies in four games

Diamondbacks over Cubs in four games

Angels over Red Sox in five games

Indians over Yankees in five games

Am I a little biased against the Yankees, the Red Sox and the Cubs because they go about their business by overspending (Cubs being the worst as clearly the Yankees and to a less extent Red Sox are now trying to do it the right way)? Maybe. But at the same time, by matchups, I don't think that it will be upsets if none of those teams win. I realize that MLB wants the Phillies, Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees in the playoffs for ratings. But I want the best teams to advance (since the Twins aren't in the playoffs). I want to watch good baseball for the next four or five weeks. I just hope the games are good.
 

Any thoughts or arguments? Please e-mail me or Comment below!!

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