Thursday, October 2, 2008
SethSpeaks.net Top 50 Twins Prospects
Part 3 - (#s 11-20)
Before proceeding with the
Top 50 Prospects list, I wanted to mention that I will be posting my “So… Now
What?” blog early next week. It’s a fun exercise that you may want to consider
doing for yourself before the offseason really begins. If you’re interested, I
would encourage you to check out two great sources to help… First, Josh
Taylor discusses The
State of the Twins Roster. It’s really well written and could help you
start thinking about moves you would make. Secondly, you will definitely want
to read The
Twins Geek today for a 2009 Twins General Manager Cheat Sheet.
Also, if you missed it last
night, be sure to listen to the Weekly SethSpeaks.net Podcast.
The guest was Phil Miller, the Twins Beat Writer for the Pioneer Press. We had a fun conversation,
for ½ hour, on many Twins topics. I learned a lot about the team, including the
leadership of Justin Morneau, the personality of Denard Span,
dealing with the White Sox and much more. I then spent the final twenty minutes
talking to myself about my playoff predictions as well as my Top 50 Twins
prospects. I even gave those listeners a little early preview of my choices for
prospects 11 through 20. Check it out if you have a chance, or head phones!
Today we continue the
SethSpeaks.net Top 50 Twins Prospects series with Part 3, numbers 11-20. You
can check out Part 1 (Prospects 31-50) and Part 2 (Prospects 21-30). Again, I want to encourage discussion
of this list. Feel free to e-mail me at SethSpeaksNet@hotmail.com or Comment
here. For information on the purpose of this list and some of the
criteria used to develop it, click here.
So, with all that, let’s get
to today’s Twins Prospects:
SethSpeaks Top 50 Twins Prospects
#
20
– Brian
Duensing – LHP – 25 (2/22/83)
2008 Teams: Rochester Red Wings, Team USA in Olympics
Acquired: Twins 3rd round draft pick in 2005 out U of Nebraska
Brian
Duensing has now spent about a year and a half in Rochester. With other
organizations, his 2008 season, which essentially ended with a Bronze medal at
the Beijing Olympics, would likely have resulted in a September call up. In the
Twins organization, it wasn’t enough. In the Twins organization, Duensing has a
lot going against him. First and foremost, the Twins starting five are all
three to five years from free agency. Secondly, they’re all pretty good. The
Twins will likely put Duesning on the 40 man roster this winter to protect him,
and I think they should. First of all, I think that the fifth starter job could
be up in the air next spring. Second, it is wise for the Twins to have a guy at
Rochester ready to make starts for the Twins in case of injury or disappointing
performance. The other thing going against Duensing is that there are the
likes of Kevin Mulvey, Anthony Swarzak, Yohan Pino and Jeff Manship who also
could be ready to contribute to the Twins in the next year or so. Duensing is
in a tough spot. His 2008 numbers don’t look that great, but his problem all
year was the first inning. Overall, he was 5-11 with a 4.28 ERA, a full run
higher than 2007 when he went 11-5 with a 3.24 ERA in 19 AAA starts. In 138.2
innings, he struck out just 77. Duensing has too much talent to not protect
him. But unless there is a trade, expect Duensing to report back to Rochester
again in 2009. (I expect him to be dealt)
2009 Projection: starting in Rochester most of the season, possible 6th or 7th starter if he pitches well.
Potential: solid #4-5 pitcher
Could
be in Minnesota in:
2009
#
19
– Steven
Tolleson – IF – 24 (11/1/83)
2008 Team: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 5th Round Pick in 2005 out of U. of South Carolina
Overlooked
by prospect people, myself included, Steve Tolleson had an excellent 2008
season in New Britain. If not for a couple of lingering injuries in the
season’s second half, he might have moved up to Rochester. In 93 games this
year, he hit .300/.382/.466 with 28 doubles, a triple and nine home runs. He
has good speed and had 12 stolen bases in 18 attempts. He had 27 stolen
bases in 37 attempts in 2007 in Ft. Myers. Like his father Wayne Tolleson, a
big leaguer in the ‘80s, Steve is fully capable at both middle infield
positions and even got time in CF in 2008. Unlike his father, I think Steve
will be able to hit at the big league level as well. There is no reason for him
to go back to New Britain in 2009. He should spend the entire season in
Rochester and maybe get a September recall.
2009 Projection: middle infielder in Rochester, possible September call up
Potential: utility infielder
Could
be in Minnesota in:
2009
#
18
– Mike
McCardell - RHP – 23 (4/13/85)
2008 Teams: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: Twins 6th round pick in 2007 out of Kutztown University of Pennsylvania
How
McCardell spent the entire 2008 season in Beloit is beyond me. As should have
been expected based on his dominant debut in 2007 at Elizabethton, McCardell
dominated the Midwest League all season. He went 9-4 with a 2.86 ERA in
21 starts. In 135.1 innings, he walked just 25 and struck out 139 batters. So,
why wasn’t he promoted? Well, he did miss about a month of the season with an
arm injury, so certainly that made promoting him too quickly a risk. However,
it didn’t take him long to start dominating again, and he continued to do that
throughout the year. Secondly, the Ft. Myers starting rotation really
didn’t help McCardell. Although Jeff Manship was promoted and Tyler Robertson
was injured, the demotions of Jay Rainville and Oswaldo Sosa, as well as the
(smart) decision to put Matt Fox back in the rotation and try to find a lefty
like Spencer Steedley or Joe Testa, didn’t allow McCardell an opportunity to
start for the Miracle. And he should be starting, not in the bullpen at this
stage in his career. McCardell has a good fastball, a great curveball and
terrific control. But he needed to work on his changeup. A report from a scout
from another organization says that he “has major league potential, has command
of all three pitches, and he has moxie.” He continued, “nothing rattles him… He
goes out and does his job.”
2009 Projection: Start Season in Ft. Myers, should move up after All-Star break.
Potential: #3 starter
Could
be in Minnesota in:
2011
#17 – Joe Benson – OF– 20 (3/5/88)
2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: Twins 2nd round pick in 2006 out of Joliet (IL) High School
A year ago when prospect rankings came out, Benson was ranked very highly by everyone. He was in my top dozen. Baseball America and others ranked him as high as #2 in the Twins system. The ranking was based on tools, potential and athleticism because when it comes to those things, Benson is as high as anyone in these rankings. That all remains the same this year; Benson’s athleticism is off the charts. He started the year back at Beloit, as was anticipated. Unfortunately, his season came to an end after just 69 games because of a fracture in his back. This is the same injury that Whit Robbins had a year earlier, and Jason Kubel fought earlier in this career. When his season ended, he was hitting .248/.326/.382 with 23 extra base hits in 254 at bats. He stole 17 bases but was caught 11 times. Strikeouts remain the biggest concern with Benson. He struck out 73 times on the year. Here is my interpretation of those struggles though. I think that the Twins are trying to develop more patient hitters. (see Alexi Casilla, 2008) It appears that they are really stressing taking a lot of pitches. Sometimes that means falling behind or hitting with two strikes. For young players that are aggressive hitters, that can mean a lot of struggle. However, the long-term benefits of more patient approach at the plate are dramatic, and in the long run, he will be better because of it. As with Chris Parmelee, Benson is still young for the Midwest League. Hopefully he can start 2009 in Ft. Myers, remain healthy and continue to progress.
2009 Projection: Should spend the season in Ft. Myers, in part due to his back
Potential: a 30/30 type of hitter, with a gold glove
Could
be in Minnesota in:
2012
#
16
– Shooter Hunt – RHP – 22 (8/16/86)
2008
Teams:
Elizabethton Twins
Acquired: Twins supplemental 1st round pick in 2008 out of Tulane University
Shooter Hunt came to the Twins as their supplemental first round pick, the 31st overall pick, this June. He signed quickly and made a great first impression with the Elizabethton Twins. He made four starts and although he didn’t get a decision, he gave up just one earned run in 19 innings (0.47 ERA). He walked six and struck out 34. The performance earned him a promotion to Beloit where we were reminded us of what caused him to slip down in the draft. Control. He made seven Midwest League starts and went 1-4 with a 5.46 ERA. However, in 31.1 innings, he struck out 34 hitters, but he walked way too many, 27. He also hit six batters. Thought of as an upper first round pick coming into the season, he walked 56 in 100+ innings during his junior year at Tulane. But we always have to remember not to make too much of the statistics put up by college pitchers drafted in the current year. He has been pitching since early January without a break. He may have the best curveball in the organization, likely in the same category as Jeff Manship. I would anticipate Hunt progressing similarly to Manship. He will likely begin the 2009 season in Beloit where he will probably only spend about a half season… if he has control.
2009 Projection: spend most the season in Beloit, late promotion to Ft. Myers possible
Potential: Potential #2 type of pitcher if he gains control of his pitches.
Could
be in Minnesota in:
2012
#
15
– Rene
Tosoni – OF – 22 (7/2/86)
2008 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 36th round pick in 2005 out of Chipola College
When the 2008 minor league assignments were made at the conclusion of minor league camp, one name stood out to me, Rene Tosoni? Why? Tosoni spent last year with the Elizabethton Twins and played a huge role in their championship. He then moved up to Beloit where he helped them to the championship series. Typical progression would be for Tosoni to head to Beloit for his first full-season team. However, the Twins brass determined that Tosoni was ready to be pushed all the way up to Ft. Myers. Even better, he got off to a great start with the Miracle. He played in about 40 games before breaking his foot and missing much of the rest of the summer. He came back to the Miracle for the season’s final two games. In 42 games this season, he hit .300/.404/.408 with seven doubles, three triples and a homer. Then in the playoffs for the Miracle, he played hero again. In game one of the first series, he hit a 2 run homer in the team’s 2-1 win. In game one of the championship series, he was 2-3 with a walk and another home run. Tosoni really seems to be a natural hitter. He is still just 22 and his success even after skipping a level is impressive. He might just start next season in Ft. Myers again, just to get off to a good start again, but I can see him moving up very quickly. The belief is that he might have enough bat to play the corner outfield position as he moves up the system.
2009 Projection: because of injury, could start season at Ft. Myers. Definite candidate for midseason promotion.
Potential: steady all around outfielder
Could
be in Minnesota in:
2011
#
14
– Jeff
Manship – RHP – 23 (1/16/85)
2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 14th round pick in 2006 out of Notre Dame University
I
was surprised somewhat when Manship started the season back at Ft. Myers. In
the end, it was probably for the best with even Jeff saying it was good for him
to work on a third pitch and feel confident in it at all times. In 13 starts
with the Miracle, he went 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA. In 78.2 innings, he walks 20 and
struck out 63. He pitched a perfect inning in the FSL All-Star game and after
the game was promoted to New Britain. I think it would be fair to say
that he experienced plenty of ups and downs in his 14 AA starts. Overall, he
went 3-6 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. But in his final three starts, he
went 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA. In 16 innings, he walked six and struck out 16. His
final start was six shutout innings. That was a great way to end his season. He
will now get an opportunity to pitch against many other great prospects in the
Arizona Fall League. It will be a good challenge for him. I would expect him to
start the 2009 season back with the Rockcats, and depending on how the season
goes, he could work his way up to Rochester. If he does real well, it would not
be shocking to see him with the Twins next September as the Twins will have to
put him on the 40 man roster following the season.
2009 Projection: Likely spend full season in New Britain rotation
Potential: #3 starter
Could
be in Minnesota in:
2010
#13
– Chris
Parmelee – OF/1B – 20 (2/24/88)
2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2006 out of Chino Hills (CA) High School
When
it comes to Chris Parmelee, it is important to do one thing… Ignore his batting
average and strikeouts, at least for now. In 69 2008 games, he hit just .239.
But an Isolated Discipline of .146 meant he was on base 38.5% of the time. An
Isolated Power of .237 says that he has a lot of raw power. Those types
of numbers scream “Adam Dunn!” But with a 20 year old in his second season at
Low A ball, that might be a bit lofty. Rob Deer hit a lot of big league home
runs in a short career, maybe he or Jack Cust would be better potential
comparisons. You never like to see a prospect get hurt, but it would have been
really nice to see what Parmelee could have done in the second half of the
season. In basically a half-season, Parmelee hit 14 homers and drove in 49
runs. If his overall numbers for the season would have been in the upper 20s or
around 30, do you think we would think more highly of him? Hopefully 2009 will
bring a promotion to Ft. Myers, continued power and a drop in strikeouts. When
he puts the ball in play, good things happen.
2009 Projection: playing RF and 1B in Ft. Myers all year
Potential: home run, strikeout or
walk type in the big leagues
Could
be in Minnesota in:
2011
#
12
– Deolis
Guerra – RHP – 19 (4/17/89)
2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Traded to Twins with Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber and Deolis Guerra for Johan Santana in March 2008
Young
for his level of competition. That’s what ‘earned’ Guerra a top ranking. And
honestly, that is what keeps him this high in the rankings. Guerra spent his
second full season in the Florida State League where the average age is closer
to 22 or 23. In fact, most 19 year olds in the Twins system played in the Gulf
Coast League. Sure, Guerra went 11-9, but it is again an excellent example of
why Win-Loss record means nothing. His ERA was 5.47. In 130 innings, he struck
out very few (71) and walked the same amount (71). That is not good. That
contributed to his 1.61 WHIP. Again, if he were 22, or even 21, a season like
this would keep him well out of the Top 50. The most disheartening thing is
that in the same league the year before, at age 18, he was much better. But we
are told that the Twins are tweaking his mechanics and that could have
contributed to the wildness and loss of velocity. But prospect lists are based
on potential. At 6-5, he can continue to grow. The velocity should, over time,
get back into the mid or upper 90s. His changeup is already very good. His
curveball can only get better. The reality is that he could stay in the Florida
State League next year and the next and still be considered young for the
level. The Twins preach control, and it is wise to keep him at a level that he
can continue to improve and make adjustments without the league overwhelming
him. Count me on the list of people who still think he will be the key
component in that Johan Santana trade.
2009 Projection: starter at Ft. Myers for another half season
Potential: potential ace
Could
be in Minnesota in:
2011
#
11
– Trevor
Plouffe – SS – 22 (6/15/86)
2008 Teams: New Britain Rockcats, Rochester Red Wings
Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2004 out of Crespi Carmelite H.S. (CA)
After
years of being pushed through the system, probably faster than he was ready,
Plouffe put together a very solid season at AA New Britain in 2007. My
assumption was that the Twins would continue the trend and push him up to
Rochester to start this season. But instead, they signed and retained a bunch
of old veteran types at AAA and let Plouffe get another half-season of AA
seasoning. Maybe he was disappointed, but he did not play well in 58 AA games.
He hit .269/.325/.410 in 227 at bats. He walked just 16 times to go with 43
strikeouts. However, he did have 23 extra base hits (17 doubles, 3 triples, 3
homers). When the Red Wings were completely out of middle infielders, Plouffe was
summoned to Rochester likely in part because Luke Hughes was hurt and despite
the fact that Steve Tolleson deserved the promotion much more. But afte a slow
start, Plouffe held his own at the minor league’s highest level. He hit
.256/.292/.420 with 26 extra base hits (17 doubles, 3 triples, 6 home runs) in
250 at bats. The strange thing about his promotion is that he played as much 3B
and 2B as he played SS. He had played occasionally at 3B, but he had not played
2B. Plouffe should start the 2009 season with the Red Wings.I hope the he
primarily plays SS because if he can continue to hit doubles and drive a few
more home runs while playing solid defense, he could be the Twins starting
shortstop in 2010.
2009 Projection: hopefully a lot of SS in Rochester, but will likely spend plenty of time at 3B and 2B.
Potential: good glove, solid bat SS
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
With
that, you can anticipate Part 3 being posted in the next day or two. As you
would expect, it depends on how the Twins are doing and how much time I have to
get things posted. But I welcome your questions, comments, opinions, rankings
or arguments. You can e-mail me at sethspeaksnet@hotmail.com
or go to the WordPress
Talkin’ Twins BB site and Comment there. I hope to discuss this ranking
during my upcoming podcasts at www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SethSpeaks
as well.
I
appreciate all comments!