Thursday

Good Morning! Today I will be catching a flight to the cities at 6:30 a.m. I will spend the entire day there and won't fly back until 7:30 tonight. So, hopefully I will be home by about 9:00 tonight. I hope you enjoy the posting. Hopefully we can get just as many comments as we did yesterday.

Today, I am going to jump right back into my Top 50 Twins Prospect series with part three. Last Friday, I posted my choices for prospects #36-50, and yesterday my choices for #21-35 were posted. Today, I am back with my selections for numbers 11-20. Before making my selections, I will remind you of who my choices were for numbers 21-50. Again, don't take this as anything other than a fun look at several of the Twins prospects. I enjoy following the Twins system and think that it is important, as a Twins fan, to understand what is going on with the minor league system. Think it doesn't matter? Look at the 2006 Minnesota Twins roster this season and tell me that developing a strong minor league system isn't important to the big league club!

If you have any questions or comments on any of these players or their rankings, I would love to hear your thoughts. The final part of this list will be posted tomorrow. It will be my Top 10 list on Friday. If you have thoughts, or if you have a Top 10, 20, 30, or 50 Prospect list, I would love to see it and share it with other Twins fans, so please e-mail me or leave Comments below.

#50 – Dan Leatherman – RHP – 21

#49 – Caleb Moore – C – 23

#48 – Adam Hawes – RHP – 23

#47 – Tyler Robertson – LHP – 18

#46 – Steve Singleton – SS/2B – 21

#45 – Tristan Crawford – RHP – 24

#44 – Juan Portes – IF/OF – 20

#43 – Justin Jones – LHP – 21

#42 – Loek Van Mil – RHP – 22

#41 – Felix Molina – SS – 23

#40 – Zach Ward – RHP – 22

#39 – Errol Simonitsch – LHP – 24

#38 – Matt Tolbert – SS/2B – 24

#37 – Greg Yersich – C – 19

#36 – Garrett Jones – 1B/DH – 25

#35 – Brian Dinkelman – 2B – 22

#34 – Brian Kirwan – RHP – 19

#33 – Garrett Olson – 3B – 21

#32 – Alex Burnett – RHP – 19

#31 – Andrew Thompson – 2B – 19

#30 – Doug Deeds – OF/1B – 24

#29 – Danny Santiesteban – OF – 21

#28 – Yohan Pino – RHP – 22

#27 – Erik Lis – 1B – 22

#26 – Oswaldo Sosa – RHP – 21

#25 – Eli Tintor – OF – 22

#24 – Danny Valencia – 1B/3B – 22

#23 – Paul Kelly – SS – 19

#22 – Whitney Robbins – 3B/1B – 22

#21 – Garrett Guzman – OF – 25

#20 – Joe Benson – OF– 18

#19 – Trevor Plouffe – SS – 20

#18 – Jay Rainville – RHP – 21

#17 – Brock Peterson – 1B – 22

#16 – Kyle Waldrop – RHP – 20

#15 – Matt Moses – 3B – 21

#14 – Brandon Roberts – OF – 22

#13 – Brian Duensing – LHP – 23

#12 – Denard Span – OF – 22

#11 – Chris Parmalee – OF/1B – 18

#10 – Alex Romero – OF– 23

2006 Team: Rochester Red Wings

Acquired: signed as a free agent by the Twins from Venezuela in 2002

It was a strange year for Romero, I think. He started the season with Rochester, but struggles and infrequent playing time meant a quick demotion to New Britain. In his 48 games there, he hit .281/.384/.461 with 11 doubles, two triples and five home runs. He then returned to Rochester. All told, in 71 AAA games, he hit .250/.300/.301 with eight doubles and two triples. I have heard that at AAA he became more of a slap hitter, losing any power. However, if you are like me and have watched Romero seasons, he always starts out slow and then comes on big. He did it at New Britain in 2005. He did it in Ft. Myers in 2004. I think had he stayed in Rochester the whole time, he would have adjusted. That’s why I am still high on him. He will make that adjustment and I think he will have a good 2007 season there. He is a good average hitter who has shown some flashes of power and some flashes of speed (although many reports say his speed has lessened.) He’s still a top 10 prospect in my book.

2007 Projection: Back in the OF with Rochester

Potential: a good bat, good speed guy who could start for a big league team

Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#9 – Trent Oeltjen – OF – 23

2006 Teams: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: signed as free agent in 2001 out of Australia

Those of you who have read this site know that Trent Oeltjen has been one of my favorite Twins prospects to follow since he hit .298 with 29 SB in 2003 at Quad Cities. He has continued to progress consistently through the system. At the start of the 2006 season, he was sent to New Britain and played alongside Denard Span and Doug Deeds. When Romero was demoted, I feared that Oeltjen would lose time, but he played so well that he had to get At Bats. So, he played the different OF positions and DH. He was the Twins representative in the Futures Game this summer, and he has represented the Twins and Australia for several years in International competition. On the year, in 113 games, he hit .299/.278/.411 with 16 doubles, ten triples and three homers. He also stole 23 bases, although he was also caught 11 times. To me, Span gets all the notice, but Oeltjen has a lot of speed, plays great defense and shows a little extra base hit pop in his bat. That is why he is a Top 10 prospect in my book.

2007 Projection: playing OF in Rochester
Potential: good glove, good bat, good speed OF
Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#8 – Alexander Smit – LHP – 20

2006 Teams: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: signed as free agent in 2002 out of The Netherlands

Smit rockets up this list with an unbelievable final three months of the year. In 2005, Smit started the year at Beloit, but struggled with his control inside and outside the strike zone. He went back down to Elizabethton and dominated. He again started the 2006 season in Beloit, in the bullpen. He struggled at first, again with control. But at some point, something must have clicked. He found better control and in doing so started showing the immense talent that this young, lanky lefty has. He was moved to the starting rotation and continued his success. For the season, he went 7-2 with a 2.99 ERA. In 108.1 innings, he gave up just 77 hits. He walked 53 (still too high, but a great improvement) and struck out 141! He just kept getting better each month, and he was my minor league pitcher of the month in August. In 30 innings that month, he gave up just 11 hits. Even with his 15 walks, his WHIP was just 0.87. He struck out 45 batters! I really believe that we are just beginning to see the talent and potential of Alexander Smit. I think he will just get better now, and I think he could be another lefty in the Twins line of talented lefty starters. However, at 20, he still needs time and patience.

2007 Projection: starting in Ft. Myers
Potential: Potential to be another dominating lefty starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#7 – David Winfree – 3B – 21

2006 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 13th round pick in 2003 out of Virginia Beach (VA) H.S.

The 2005 Twins Minor League Player of the Year had an interesting year. He had wrist problems early and missed time. Then he missed over a month with some personal issues that he has hopefully been able to move past. In 67 games with Ft. Myers this year, Winfree hit .276/.328/.490 with 13 doubles, 13 homers and 48 RBI in just 261 at bats. He was an RBI machine the year before too. The Florida State League is not a power hitter's delight, and despite the missed time, Winfree hit very well there. He will be participating, with Matt Moses, in the Arizona Fall League, which should be interesting. Like Moses, he is not great with the glove at this point. But again, he is a hitter and a run producer, and he is quite young. I would not be surprised to see him surpass Moses in the Twins plans.

2007 Projection: starting 3B in New Britain
Potential: Potential power hitting big league 3B
Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#6 – Eduardo Morlan – RHP – 20

2006 Teams: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: Twins 3^rd round pick in 2004 out of Coral Park, FL

Of the six pitchers that the Twins took in the first three rounds of the 2004 draft, many believe that Morlan has the most upside. He just also might take the longest to get there. The question seems to be whether he will be a starter or a bullpen guy. From the sounds of it, he wants to stay in the bullpen. He throws the ball harder when he’s a reliever, which only makes sense. But the Twins really like to let their top pitching prospects start in the minor leagues to continue to build arm strength. Right now, he really only has one pitch, so he will need to develop a secondary pitch or two. In 2006 at Beloit, he pitched in 28 games and started 18 of those. In 106.1 innings, he gave up just 78 hits and walked 38. He struck out an impressive 125. The problem so far has been some arm problems. He has missed a little bit of time each of the last two years. So, I am sure that the Twins will be patient with him, but he certainly does have the world of potential.

2007 Projection: starting in Ft. Myers
Potential: Potential to be another dominant Twins closer
Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#5 – Glen Perkins – LHP – 23

2006 Teams: New Britain Rockcats/Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins
Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2004 out of U. of Minnesota (and Stillwater, MN)

The former Gopher really had a decent year, regardless of his AA record (which you can see on the left). With the Rockcats, he was 4-11, but he did have an ERA just below four, so that isn’t horrible for the league. In 117.1 innings, he walked 45 and struck out 131. He also missed a couple of weeks in midseason with a tired arm. I like the strikeout rate, that’s for sure. He made one start for Rochester at the end of their regular season and took the loss despite giving up just one run. Then in the playoffs, he threw six shutout innings in relief of Francisco Liriano, and he also made another great start for a win. He was rewarded with a September call up. He has pitched two innings over three games with the Twins. He has looked good, looked sharp. I still think that Perkins needs some AAA time, and he needs to work on the consistency. That said, he could be ready by midseason to step into a rotation spot if one is available.

2007 Projection: starting in Rochester
Potential: quality, long-term #3 type starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#4 – Anthony Swarzak – RHP – 23

2006 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 2^nd round pick in 2004 out of Ft. Lauderdale, FL

For some reason, I have been predicting a big breakout year next year for Swarzak. Call it a hunch, or a feeling, but I think that he could move a level or two next year. Swarzak returned to the Miracle and really put together a strong season. In 27 starts, he went 11-7 with a 3.27 ERA. In 145.2 innings, he gave up 60 walks (should come down) and struck out 131. However, he is called tough and a competitor. Apparently he didn’t have his curveball working much this year, but his fastball alone was quite good. He is also working on a changeup. If a pitcher can have three quality pitches, he can be tough! He just needs to keep the ball down in the zone. I think that the full season in the Florida State League was good for Swarzak, but I believe he is now ready to take on the Eastern League, and maybe even the International League by season’s end.

2007 Projection: starting in New Britain
Potential: #2-type starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#3 – Alexi Casilla – SS/2B – 22

2006 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rockcats/Minnesota Twins
Acquired: came to Twins in JC Romero trade last December

The funny thing is that I was hoping the Twins could get someone like Erick Aybar from the Angels for Romero, but in the end, Terry Ryan and his scouting department and minor league staffs found another diamond in the rough in Casilla. After having a very solid year in the Midwest League in 2005, Casilla really came into his own this year. He stayed in Ft. Myers until the first half of the season was complete. There he hit .331/.390/.406 with 12 double and six triples. He was also 31/37 in base stealing attempts. He moved up to New Britain and immediate started and hit second. In 45 games there, he hit .294/.375/.382. His batting average only dipped below .300 on the season’s final day because he went 0-7 in a double header. He had ten doubles, a triple and a home run there. He was also 19/23 in steal attempts. So, Casilla has shown to put together quality at bats, have some extra base pop, hit for average and steal bases. We have seen the quality at bats in his few plate appearances with the Twins, and last night he collected his first big league hit. 50 stolen bases is great at any level. In the game last night, we saw that he can play a good second base, can turn a double play and has a very strong throwing arm. I have to wonder if he has shown enough to the Twins brass for them to consider trading Luis Castillo.

2007 Projection: playing 2B in Rochester to start.
Potential: #1 or #2 hitter with big SB potential
Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#2 – Kevin Slowey – OF – 22

2006 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rockcats/Team USA/Rochester Red Wings
Acquired: Twins 2^nd round pick in 2005 out of Winthrop U.

What an amazing season 2006 has been for Slowey! I thought that last year, when I ranked him 9^th after just two-plus months of pro ball may have been too high, but he has been even better in 2006. He started with the Miracle in Ft. Myers and in reality, he outpitched Matt Garza. However, Garza was promoted, but Slowey only had to wait until the season’s 2^nd half. There, Slowey went 4-2 (thanks to minimal run support) with a 1.01 ERA in 14 starts. In 89.1 innings, he walked just nine and struck out 99! In New Britain, he made nine starts and went 4-3 with a 3.19 ERA. In 59.1 innings, he walked 13 and struck out 52. Now, we know that he doesn’t throw much over 90 mph, but everything I have read or heard says that he has impeccable control. That can be seen by the low walk total, but an equally important point is that it can be seen in the lack of hits. He has great control and movement of a number of pitches at a number of speeds, all in an attempt to keep the hitter off stride. Slowey was selected to pitch for Team USA in the Olympic Qualifier. He did well, but really showed his stuff in the championship game. With about 50,000 fans in the stands, Slowey gave up just one run in five innings against Cuba, in Havana. How’s that for composure!? And, when he got back from there, he joined the Red Wings and in the IL championship series, he started one game and gave up just one run in 7.2 innings. If not for our #1 prospect, Slowey would be the easy choice for that spot. Also, he has shown a great ability to adjust to a new level after a rough start. Kind of like with our NFL “Expert” Picks. Last year, Slowey finished in last place out of 12 panelists. This year, he has shown great improvement already!

2007 Projection: starting in Rochester
Potential: long time #2 type pitcher, who really is a #1, who could be the Twins #4!
Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#1 – Matt Garza – RHP – 22

2006 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle/New Britain Rockcats/Rochester Red Wings/Minnesota Twins
Acquired: Twins 1^st round pick in 2005 out of Fresno State U.

As I did last year, I wanted to get this list published before one of the players would lose eligibility. Garza stands at 47.1 innings with the Twins, so if he gets eight outs in his Saturday night start, he will lose his rookie eligibility for 2007 and would no longer fit the criteria to be on this list. However, this is a 2006 list, and to leave Garza out for any reason would, in my mind, be a mistake. Like Casilla, Garza has made the jump from Hi-A ball to the big leagues. He made eight starts in Ft. Myers and went 5-1 with a 1.42 ERA. In 44.1 innings, he gave up 11 walks and struck out 53. At New Britain, he made ten starts and went 6-2 with a 2.51 ERA. In 57.1 innings, he walked just 14 and struck out 68. He moved up to Rochester where he made five starts. He went 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA. In 34 innings, he walked seven and struck out 33. The Twins were really struggling to find starting pitching and after trying to hold back Garza as long as they could, they finally had to call him up. He has now started eight games (and made one relief appearance) and has gone 3-5 with a 5.32 ERA. In 47.1 innings, he has walked 21 and struck out 35. Now, his walks are up and his strikeouts are down since his recall. I don’t think that is unusual. Blessed with a fastball in the mid-90s, a good slider, a good curveball and a good changeup, he has #1 potential as well. If by next year, he can change one of the ‘good’s’ in the previous sentence to a ‘great’, he will be special already next year. When he can turn a couple of them to ‘great’, he could be another All-Star.

2007 Projection: starting in Rochester
Potential: long time #2 type pitcher, who really is a #1, who could be the Twins #4!
Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

So there you have it, the Top 10 (and the Top 50) Twins Prospects. Twins fans should be drooling at the possibility of a starting rotation involving Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, Boof Bonser and Kevin Slowey or Glen Perkins, or Anthony Swarzak.

Any thoughts or arguments? Please e-mail me or Comment below!!