Monday September 29, 2003

FIRST ANNUAL SETHSPEAKS AWARDS

·         NL Manager of the Year

·         AL Manager of the Year

·         NL Rookie of the Year

·         AL Rookie of the Year

·         NL Cy Young Award

·         AL Cy Young Award

TWINS THOUGHTS

VIKINGS THOUGHTS

NFL “EXPERTS” PICKS

AND THE WINNERS ARE…

As promised on Friday, today, I will be announcing my 2003 Major League Baseball Award Winners. Last week, I gave out my Gold Glove choices. Today, I will announce my Managers of the Year, Rookies of the Year, and Cy Young Award choices. I lied a little bit though. I am going to wait until tomorrow to name my, maybe controversial MVP Award winners. I will also give out a couple other awards at that time, so be sure to check back tomorrow. These are some absolutely difficult decisions. I don’t envy the voters who have to develop their ideas of what each means, sift through the statistics, and make their choices.  So, without further ado, here are my award winners:

National League Manager of the Year

Felipe Alou is the 2003 SethSpeaks National League Manager of the Year. Trader Jack McKeon is getting highly touted as the front-runner for this award, but I think that what Felipe Alou has done in San Francisco this year is amazing. If there is a one-man offensive team, it is the Giants, but somehow, Alou led the Giants to 100 wins. He fit good, but not exceptional, pieces around Barry Bonds (the likes of Grissom, Cruz, Durham, Alfonso, etc.). He had Jason Schmidt and Kirk Reuter, but also got solid performances from youngsters Jerome Williams and Jesse Foppert (as well as Damion Moss and Kurt Ainsworth, who wnet to the Orioles in a trade deadline deal for Sidney Ponson). Oh, and he didn’t have his closer, Trevor Hoffman, the whole year.

I’d put Jack McKeon number two for the job he did coming into a bad situation in Florida and making it into a winner. They went from a team that seemed to look out for itself and really made them think with a team concept. He stuck behind his young players and let his veterans play.

Dusty Baker led a team, the Cubs, that lost 95 games a year ago and led them to the National League Central Division championship. A player’s coach, Baker led a veteran group of players who had previously underachieved, and made them play together. I think his ranking on this list drops, for me, because the Cubs ownership made moves to put their team in the running for the title.

I would feel bad not even mentioning Atlanta’s Bobby Cox. Look at what he did. They lost Tom Glavine and Kevin Millwood, yet had one of their best seasons. I know they’re also a high payroll team, but sometimes it’s just as difficult to manage a group of superstars like the Braves are.

American League Manager of the Year

Tony Pena is the 2003 SethSpeaks American League Manager of the Year. I think this one is a no-brainer. Tony Pena stepped into a mess in Kansas City and kept them in the AL Central race through mid-September. Not only did they win 83 games (meaning the clause in Mike Sweeney’s contract will keep him in Kansas City), but it’s how they did it. Sweeney was out of the lineup a lot, and Carlos Beltran is a great player, but from an offensive standpoint, that was about it. But Pena kept everybody ready and everyone chipped in. He started with a young, up-and-coming pitching staff and had them pitching with success and confidence. Then when GM Allard Baird, for some reason, decided to not go young and pick up pitching scraps (Jose Lima, Paul Abbott, Jamey Wright) and even won games that they pitched.

Grady Little’s Red Sox team was an offensive juggernaut, scoring over 1,000 runs this season. Pedro Martinez, when he felt like pitching, was dominant. But, there were question marks in the bullpen and with the rest of the rotation. Also, Little had to deal with Manny Ramirez and I think he did well with the egos that some of the Red Sox have. Yes, he had an amazing offense, but to keep them together sometimes is difficult.

Like Little and Bobby Cox, Joe Torre deserves so much credit for keeping the Yankees circus rolling. He managed without Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams for extended periods of time. He dealt with George Steinbrenner’s expectations. I just think Joe Torre deserves so much credit for making the Yankees what they are!

Ron Gardenhire probably will receive more credit from the national media than he does from Twins fans. But, Gardy did keep the team together through all the struggles of the first half.

National League Rookie of the Year

This is probably an even easier decision than AL Manager of the Year. Brandon Webb is our 2003 SethSpeaks National League Rookie of the Year choice. He had a rough outing yesterday, but ends the season with a 10-9 record with an ERA of 2.84. Had the Diamondback had any offense at all, Webb could have won many more games. But, Webb was a very dominant pitcher.  He struck out 172 batters in 180.2 innings, while walking just 68.

Milwaukee’s Scott Podsednik isn’t a flashy player at all, so he may not finish this high, but he deserves it. If Webb weren’t in the picture, Podsednik would walk away with the award (in my opinion). In 154 games this year, he hit .314/.379/.443 with 29 doubles, 8 triples,  9 HR and 58 RBI out of the leadoff position. He scored 100 runs and stole 43 bases. Now, that’s a pretty good leadoff hitter!

Dontrelle Willis is the media darling and will probably end up winning this award. And, in some years, he might even deserve it because he has had a very strong rookie campaign for the Florida Marlins. Willis was named to the All-Star roster this year after going 8-1 to start his careers. Willis went 14-6, with an ERA of 3.30. He struck out 142 and walked 58 in 160 innings. So, he’s got a better Winning Percentage than Webb, but the rest of his numbers don’t really compare (although, as I said, they are still great!).

Others worth mentioning - Florida’s Miguel Cabrera was also a mid-season callup and really helped them toward the Wild Card championship. He hit .268/.325/.468, with 21 doubles, 12 HR and 62 RBI in just 87 games. Horacio Ramirez was the Braves 4^th starter and performed very admirably. Although nowhere near as dominant as Webb or Willis, Horacio Ramirez ended the season with a 12-4 record and an ERA of 4.00. In his 29 starts, he pitched 182.1 innings, striking out 100 while walking 72. His record is because of the Braves offense, but his number show that he can be a solid major league pitcher.

American League Rookie of the Year

Angel Berroa is the 2003 SethSpeaks American League Rookie of the Year. Angel Berroa was a pleasant surprise in the Royals surprise season. Playing 158 games at shortstop, the 26 year old Berroa improved defensively and with the bat as the season progressed. Berroa hit .287/.338/.451 with 28 doubles, 7 triples, 17 home runs. Berroa also stole 21bases in 26 attempts.

Hideki Matsui may not have had quite the standout season that many in baseball, and specifically in New York, expected, but he still had a very solid season in the middle of the Yankees lineup. Because of a rainout/tie, Matsui actually played in 163 games. He hit .287/.353/.435, with 42 doubles, 16 home runs and 106 RBI. Maybe he didn’t hit the home runs that people expected, but those 42 doubles are pretty impressive!

Mark Teixeira started off very slow this season, but Buck Showalter stuck with him in the lineup and by early May, he was in the lineup every day. Originally that meant playing some 3B, learning the OF, then moving into 1B where he played most of the time. In 146 games, Teixeira hit .259/.331/.480 with 29 doubles, 5 triples, and 26 home runs with 84 RBI.

Others to mention - Tampa Bay’s Rocco Baldelli had a very good rookie year. At the All-Star break, he may have been the front runner for this award. His numbers were: .289/.326/.416, with 32 doubles, 8 triples, 11 home runs and 78 RBI, also stole 27 bases and played a great centerfield.  In 127 games, Cleveland OF Jody Gerut hit .279/.336/.494 with 33 doubles, 22 homers and 75 RBI. Had Gerut played more of the season with the Indians, he would probably be much further up on this list. He also is a very good left fielder. There were very few bright spots for the Detroit Tigers, but rookie OF Craig Monroe hit 23 homers and drove in 70 runs in just 128 games. He hit just .240 with an On-base percentage of .287. But that .449 slugging percentage is certainly something the Tigers can build upon!

National League Cy Young Award

Eric Gagne is our 2003 SethSpeaks National League Cy Young Award choice. I know there are a lot of people who believe that a closer should not win the Cy Young Award because they can win the Rolaids Fireman of the Year award, but I am certainly not one of them. Can you name any of the past Fireman Winners? Twins fans, did you know that the 2002 American League Fireman of the Year winner was… Billy Koch. It’s based on a formula, not anything else. I am of the opinion that a close would have to have a VERY special season to win ahead of a starter though. That is why I believe that Eric Gagne should be this years Cy Young Award winner. 55 saves in 55 save opportunities. 137 strikeouts in 82.1 innings (that’s 14.98 K/9 IP). He finished 2-3 with a 1.20 ERA.

Mark Prior of the Chicago Cubs was as good as any other starting pitcher this year. He went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA. In 211.1 innings, Prior struck out 245 batters, walking just 50.

Jason Schmidt of the San Francisco Giants had a very strong 2003. He was 17-5, with a 2.34 ERA. In 207.2 innings, Schmidt struck out 208 hitters, while walking just 46. (I rank Prior just barely ahead of Schmidt because of the extra win, but mainly just do to more strikeouts. Both have great numbers, and it’s not taking anything away from Schmidt putting him one spot behind Prior. Consider them 2 and 2a on this list)

The Dodgers Kevin Brown was really a remarkable story in 2003. He hasn’t been healthy since signing his $105 million contract with the Dodgers, but he was (for the most part) this year. This season, Brown went 14-9 with a 2.39 ERA. In 32 starts, Brown pitched 211 innings and struck out 185 batters, walking 56. Brown was the best of an impressive Dodgers pitching staff that kept the team in the race up until the final weekend of the season!

The Braves Russ Ortiz led the Braves with a 21-7 record. His ERA was 3.71. He certainly isn’t as dominant as the above pitchers as shown by just 149 strikeouts in 212.1 innings. He also walked 102 batters. BUT, it is my opinion that part of the job of a starting pitcher is to give innings and keep your team in the ball game, and along with that comes Wins, and 21 wins is pretty impressive!

American League Cy Young Award

Roy Halloday is our 2003 SethSpeaks American League Cy Young Award winner. 22-7, 3.25 ERA. 266 innings pitched. 204 strikeouts. Just 32 walks! Roy Halloday did so much to warrant winning this award, but by eating up 266 innings in his 36 starts and completing 9 games also helped the team, specifically their bullpen.

One of the league’s biggest surprises this season had to be White Sox righty Esteban Loaiza! The journeyman finally put together a full season of good pitching. He made 34 starts for the Sox, pitching 226.1 innings. He went 21-9, with a 2.90 ERA. His 207 strikeouts led the American League. Take away a couple of late-season, poor starts against the Minnesota Twins and Loaiza could have won this award.

Oakland A’s righty Tim Hudson ate up some innings too. He threw 240 innings. He went 16-7, but had an ERA of just 2.70. He had 162 strikeouts while walking 61.

Jamie Moyer is a lot different from any of the other pitchers on these Cy Young lists. He’s not at all a “dominant” pitcher, at least not in terms of strike outs. In 215 innings this year, Moyer had just 129 strikeouts. He even walked 66 batters. But, even with that, Moyer went 21-7 with a 3.27 ERA. Maybe not “dominant”, but he certainly gets the job done and deserves recognition for a great season!

There is no pitcher in baseball more babied (or maybe as much of a baby) as Pedro Martinez. That said, there probably isn’t a better, more dominant starting pitcher in baseball than Pedro Martinez. This year, Martinez made 29 starts for the Red Sox. He went 14-4 with a 2.22 ERA. In 186.2 innings, Pedro struck out 206 hitters, walking just 47 (and giving up just 7 homers). (NOTE - Wednesday night, Martinez and the Red Sox will match up against Tim Hudson and the Oakland A’s, in what should be a great game!)

Again, be sure to check back tomorrow for my choices for American League and National League MVP, as well as a couple of other awards.

So, what are your thoughts on my choices for these awards? Agree? Disagree? Do you have other players you think should win?  I’d love to hear your thoughts on them! E-mail me.

TWINS THOUGHTS

Well, the Twins went into Chicago for their meaningless series against the Tigers. The Tigers won 3 out of the 4 games to finish with (just?) 119 losses, staying out of the record book for most losses in a season. My thinking is that the Twins had leads when their starters were playing. The starters got a few more at bats and either stayed or got healthy. They should all be ready for the playoffs. Guys like Michael Cuddyer (who hit an 11^th inning game-winning home run on Friday night), Lew Ford and Michael Ryan, who could be key reserves in the playoffs, each got plenty of at bats. The starting pitchers got their work in and all did well. Johan Santana threw 5 shutout innings. Brad Radke gave up 1 run in his 5 innings of work. Kyle Lohse gave up just 1 run in his 3 innings of work yesterday. Those three will start the games this week against the Yankees.

One question, which may or may not be fair is: did the Twins regulars get enough playing time since they clinched? Will they be sharp?  Other playoff teams continue to play their starters. The Twins allowed themselves to lose 3 of 4 to the Tigers. Is that the way to go into the playoffs?

My opinion, as mentioned above, is that the starters did get their work in. They got some days off to recover from lingering injuries, then got back into the lineup and all got a few at bats the last few games to get ready. 

Now they will be traveling to New York. They have a practice this morning at Yankees Stadium. It should be interesting to hear how the players handle the New York media this week. Here are the pitching matchups and schedules for the first three games of the series:

Tuesday 12:06 p.m. Central Time, on ESPN -

Johan Santana (12-3, 3.07) vs. Mike Mussina (17-8, 3.40)

Thursday 7:18 p.m. Central Time, on Fox -

                Brad Radke (14-10, 4.49) vs. Andy Pettite (21-8, 4.02)

Saturday (Schedule still undetermined) -

                Kyle Lohse (14-11, 4.61) vs. Roger Clemens (17-9, 3.91)

Tomorrow, I will write up a preview of the Twins/Yankees series, as well as provide some analysis and predictions for the other playoff series.  If you’d like to contribute your thoughts on this series, send me an e-mail of what you think will happen, who the key players are, and what the Twins need to do to win!

VIKINGS THOUGHTS

Vikings 35, 49ers 7!  Wow! I definitely did not predict that. I thought the Vikings would win, but to completely and utterly dominate the 49ers in every aspect of the game was a complete surprise to me, and I’m sure plenty of other Vikings fans and football people in general! That first half of football was as impressive as I can imagine the team could play. With veteran Gus Frerotte playing QB, the offense didn’t miss a beat. The assumption is that the offense would be more conservative without Daunte Culpepper playing, but that was far from the case.

The Vikings game plan appeared to be to use their offensive line to establish dominance and run the ball down the 49ers throat, and they were very successful in doing so. Moe Williams had 44 yards rushing and Onterrio Smith added 43 yards, including a first quarter 5 yard TD rush, the first of his NFL career.

But, because of the ability to run, the Vikings were able to open up the field and make some big plays to their wide receivers. Obviously the star was Randy Moss, who collected 8 catches for 171 yards and 3 touchdowns! Rookie Nate Burleson had 3 catches for 54 yards, including a 24 yard TD which was the first of his pro careers.

The defense continues to amaze loyal Vikings fans who have stuck by the team, watching them the last few years when they couldn’t stop anyone!  Safeties Corey Chavous and Brian Russell each grabbed their 4^th interceptions on the season. CB Brian Williams picked off his 2^nd. Their 11 interceptions through their first four games is more than they have had in recent seasons!

The defensive line is really performing well! Yesterday, they had 4 sacks, including 2 from rookie Kevin Williams. But they continue to put pressure on opposing QBs, forcing some of those interceptions! Also, they, along with the linebackers, have done a great job of stopping the run!

All in all, a great performance by the whole Vikings team yesterday, as they improved to 4-0

As you can see from reading the above, the Vikings are getting huge contributions from a number of their rookies.  Take a look at their 2003 draft, round-by-round and see how they did. Maybe Scott Studwell deserves a lot more credit than I’m sure he’ll receive!

First Round - Kevin Williams - DT

                Williams has played a lot already this season, splitting team between Defensive Tackle and Defensive End. He tallied his first 2 sacks of his career yesterday.

Second Round - EJ Henderson - LB

                Like many rookies, Henderson is making his biggest mark on Special Teams where he has already made some big hits. But, he is also getting some playing time with the regular linebackers.

Third Round - Nate Burleson - WR

                Put up such amazing receiving numbers in his career at Nevada-Reno, and he has shown why so far this year. With the injury to D’Wayne Bates, Burleson has been playing a lot. He started the season as the team’s #3 receiver, but yesterday got his first start and his first touchdown reception.

Fourth Round - Onterrio Smith - RB

                The self-proclaimed Steal of the Draft has done quite well when given the opportunity to spell Moe Williams. He still needs to block better, but when he touches the ball, good things happen, including his first NFL touchdown yesterday in the first quarter. Should continue to play more and more each week.

Fifth Round - Eddie Johnson - P

                Won the punting job. Had a very good day yesterday, but still hasn’t been spectacular. He will only get better! It’s difficult for me to type anything about a punter, cuz, it’s just not exciting. That said, he gets the job done!

Sixth Round - Michael Nattiel - LB

                Nattiel probably plays the least of any of this year’s draftees, but he has seen time on special teams and gets some late-game time on defense. Great for a 6^th rounder though!

Seventh Round - Keenan Howry - WR

                Howry is a big-play, speed guy, who is the Vikings punt returner. He’s done quite well returning punts so far for the team. Still waiting for him to bust one open. Seems to have real good hands and instincts though!

What’s next? Next Sunday, they will travel to Atlanta to battle the 1-3 Falcons, who will likely be without star QB Michael Vick still.

Do you have any thoughts on the Vikings game, or updated predictions of what you expect from the team? E-mail me.

 

NFL “EXPERTS” FOOTBALL PICKS

So, through the first three weeks of the football season, I was looking pretty good in my weekly picks, leading the nine of us in overall record. I tried really hard not to get over-confident or brag too much. In Week 4, reality set in a little bit for me! I am currently just 7-6 on the week and have fallen out of first place. Not good at all. There are a couple of picks I wish I could have back, in retrospect. Why did I pick the Bills, without RB Travis Henry, to beat the Eagles?  The Titans are my Super Bowl team, and yet I picked them to lose to the Steelers.  Why? But the others I don’t feel too bad about. I mean, I hope I never pick the Bengals to win! But, I also learned a lot from the ones I got wrong. The Browns are bad no matter who is at QB. The Falcons really need Michael Vick! The Cowboys aren’t good, but they even made the Jets look really bad! Says a lot about the Jets.  And, what happened to the Saints? Their same players from last year are back, and healthy, so how does their 55-21 lost to the Colts happen? Oh well. Here’s the scenario for our ‘pickers’ heading into tonight’s Packers/Bears game: If the Packers win, Aaron Gleeman will win the week with a record of 12-2! If the Bears somehow beat the Pack, Gleeman will be tied for first place, at 11-3, with Ben Jacobs and Mike Brasel. Be sure to check out the updated overall standings on our Football Picks page. Here are this week’s standings heading into tonight’s game:

OK, that’s it for today. Be sure to check back tomorrow for my MVP Award winners, my Yankees/Twins series analysis and predictions, predictions for the other playoff series.  If you have any questions, comments or thoughts from today’s posting or anything else you’d like to know, please feel free to send me an e-mail, and I’ll get back to you!

Have a great week!

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