Tuesday September 28, 2004
Overlooked? Just Schill!
Good morning, All!
It seems to me that everyone around the country is finally coming to grips with the reality that Johan Santana will win the 2004 American League Cy Young Award. Twins fans have been saying that since probably early August. But much of the rest of the world didn't seem to realize it until Santana reached his 20th win on Friday night. Despite the fact that Curt Schilling has 21 victories to Santana's 20, Johan has been far superior in every other pitching category.
But it almost seems like the tone that some people want to take on this issue, sometimes yours truly included, that this is a clear-cut choice. Some people make it almost seem as if a vote for Schilling is a 'dumb' choice. And that isn't fair. The fact is that Curt Schilling is having a Cy Young-like season. Let's just look at his numbers for a second.
W-L ERA IP H BB K K/9 WHIP OppBA CG
2004 21-6 3.26 226.2 206 35 203 8.07 1.06 .239 3
These are certainly the numbers of a Cy Young candidate. Great won-loss record (best winning percentage in the league). Very good 3.26 ERA is second in the AL. A WHIP below 1.20 is great, so 1.06 is really impressive, good for second-best in the league. Even the .239 average is solid, 4th in the AL. Schilling's strikeout rate dropped by a couple of strikeouts per nine innings.
The only problem for Schilling (or really, just for his Cy Young chances), is the fact that he is behind the Twins Johan Santana in these categories. Here are Schilling's numbers along-side Santana's.
W-L ERA IP H BB K K/9 WHIP OppBA CG
Schilling 21-6 3.26 226.2 206 35 203 8.1 1.06 .239 3
Santana 20-6 2.62 223.0 153 53 260 10.5 0.92 .193 1
Santana ranks second to Schilling in Wins and Winning Percentage. Santana ranks fourth in innings pitched. But he leads the league in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and Opponent's Batting average. These, unlike Wins, are categories that a pitcher can actually control.
Because of these numbers, and the fact that Santana is just one win behind Schilling, I absolutely believe that Johan Santana should be the AL Cy Young winner. But the point of my rant is to say that everyone must also admit that Curt Schilling is having a really strong season as well and deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Santana. Schilling is a very strong second place finisher!
#2 AIN'T BAD
Poor Curt Schilling. This will likely be the third time in the last four seasons that he has put together an incredible statistical season on the mound, and he is still without a Cy Young Award to call his own. At least this season, with the help of a few horrible Pedro Martinez outings, Schilling is the best pitcher on his own team.
Curt Schilling came to he Arizona Diamondbacks before the trade deadline in 2000, for four major league ball players. He teamed with Randy Johnson to give the D-backs an incredible 1-2 punch at the top of their starting rotation. The two were Co-MVPs of the World Series when Arizona beat the New York Yankees in the 2001 Fall Classic. They remained teammates until Schilling was traded to Boston this past offseason.
Schilling put up amazing numbers in 2001 and 2002, but in each year, Schilling finished a distant second to Johnson in the NL Cy Young voting. Here are the numbers:
2001 W-L ERA IP H BB K K/9 WHIP CG
Schilling 22-6 2.98 256.7 237 39 293 10.3 1.08 6
Johnson 21-6 2.49 249.7 181 71 372 13.4 1.01 3
2002 W-L ERA IP H BB K K/9 WHIP CG
Schilling 23-7 3.23 259.3 218 33 316 11.0 0.97 5
Johnson 24-5 2.32 260.0 197 71 334 11.6 1.03 8
In both years, Schilling was remarkable and worthy of the title "Cy Young Winner," but in each case, Johnson was just better. That doesn't take anything away from Schilling at all.
SUMMARY
There have been a lot of great pitchers who never won the Cy Young Award. One of the most dominant pitchers or all time, Nolan Ryan, has the same exact number of Cy Young Awards as I do. One of the arguments against Bert Blyleven's Hall of Fame candidacy is that he never won a Cy Young Award, so he was "never the best pitcher in his league." When you combine that thinking with the fact that Nolan Ryan received over 98% of the Hall of Fame vote, it all seems a bit fishy, doesn't it?
Curt Schilling has put up some incredible numbers the last seven or eight seasons. Is he a Hall of Famer? Probably not. But has he been a great, solid, dominating starting pitcher who deserves mention in any 'great pitcher' discussions? Absolutely.
So, Twins fans, or others who feel strongly that Johan Santana should be the consensus, unanimous Cy Young Award winner, and I certainly agree. But let's all try to point to Santana's incredible numbers and not downgrade everything that Curt Schilling has done.
FINAL THOUGHT
OK, I believe that Johan Santana should, and will, win the AL Cy Young Award. I also believe that Randy Johnson, despite his barely over .500 record, could win the NL Cy Young over Jason Schmidt, Jake Peavy, Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt.
So, what kind of Cy Young race would we have if Randy Johnson and Johan Santana were in the same league. (Actually, there is also an award called the Warren Spahn Award, which is given to the best left-handed pitcher in all of baseball). Here are their numbers side-by-side;
W-L ERA IP H BB K K/9 WHIP OppBA CG
Johnson 15-14 2.65 237.2 167 44 282 10.8 0.89 .193 4
Santana 20-6 2.62 223.0 153 53 260 10.5 0.92 .193 1
To me, their numbers are such a toss-up, that the W-L record would probably have to be the final determinant.
What do you think? E-mail me.
The Twins and Yankees are playing a series which could very well be a precursor to one of the ALDS series. If the Twins fall to 3rd place among the three division winners, they will play the Yankees in the first round.
My personal opinion is that home-field advantage in the first round doesn't really matter to the Twins. Sure, it would be nice to play Game 5 in the Metrodome, but with Santana and Radke, I would take my chances anywhere. So, it really comes down to whether I would prefer to play the Yankees or the Red Sox in the first round.
Well, the Red Sox will match Santana and Radke with Schilling and Martinez. Game 3 would likely match Derek Lowe with Carlos Silva. These are all tough pitching matchups, but I feel the Twins match up well. The Yankees pitching staff is a mess. At this point, their rotation would likely be Orlando Hernandez, Mike Mussina and who knows (Vazquez, Brown, Lieber?). Both team's have impressive offenses, which would hopefully be nullified by the Twins pitchers. The question, of course, is which team would the Twins hitters be better able to hit.
It really makes for an interesting series the next three days in Yankees Stadium. Obviously the Twin will do their best to win each game. At the same time, how much do they want to show the Yankees, with the possibility being that the teams will start a playoff series next Tuesday? Johan Santana and Brad Radke are both scheduled to pitch, so 1.) how far do they go and 2.) what types of pitches and pitch patterns should they use? They do need to get their work in. I'd say just go all out and try not to make a big deal out of it. Fact is that the Yankees have had scouts following the Twins for a long time already, I'm sure.
Here are those pitching matchups for the series:
Tonight - 6:05 - Kyle Lohse (8-11, 5.31, 1.63, .306) vs Orlando Hernandez (8-1, 2.87, 1.24, .224)
Wednesday - 6:05 - Johan Santana (20-6, 2.65, 0.92, .193) vs Jon Lieber (13-8, 4.37, 1.31, .298)
Thursday - 6:05 - Brad Radke (11-8, 3.48, 1.15, .265) vs Mike Mussina (12-9, 4.59, 1.30, .274)
Any thoughts on the Twins., the playoffs, the roster? E-mail me.
Just 14 games were played this week as four teams had byes. Things were bunched up among our experts as well, especially heading into Monday night's game. Even after the game was complete, we had three people who led the way with an 11-3 record. Mike Brasel continues to dominate the league. Jeremy Kovash shared the title, the second time he has be atop the board. And Melissa Olson jumped up the chart with a leading 11-3 week as well. Brasel grabbed another game on the two nearest competitors in the overall leader board, Aaron Gleeman and Ryan Maus.
To see all of our picks, please click here.
Week 3 Total Name Site W
L Win% W L Win % Mike Brasel Fantasy FB Guru 11 3 78.6% 36 10 78.3% Jeremy Kovash Wolf Lake Mgr 11 3 78.6% 31 15 67.4% Melissa Olson SethSpeaks.net 11 3 78.6% 28 18 60.9% Aaron Gleeman Aaron's BB Blog 10 4 71.4% 33 13 71.7% Ryan Maus Twins Chatter 10 4 71.4% 33 13 71.7% Seth Stohs SethSpeaks.net 10 4 71.4% 28 18 60.9% Ben Jacobs Hardball Times 10 4 71.4% 28 18 60.9% John Bonnes The Twins Geek 10 4 71.4% 24 22 52.2% David Bergner Baseball Savant 9 5 64.3% 31 15 67.4% Michael Labuda ChiSox Daily 8 6 57.1% 28 18 60.9% Vic Quick KDUH-TV Sports 8 6 57.1% 28 18 60.9% David Bloom Ya Gotta Believe 8 6 57.1% 27 19 55.7%
On that note, have yourself a great day and a thoroughly enjoyable week! As always, please feel free to e-mail me about anything.