Tuesday

Good Morning! (NFL "Expert" Picks below) Well, after being tied with the Detroit Tigers for first place in the AL Central for 39 minutes on Wednesday night, the Twins were actually tied for first place with the Tigers for several hours last night. The Tigers lost to the Orioles just a few minutes before the Twins game started. With Johan Santana on the mound, Twins fans had good reason to believe that they would be on top of the division by themselves by night's end. But something funny happened. Johan Santana pitched like Josh Beckett. And Josh Beckett pitched like Johan Santana, and the Twins were handily defeated. Johan Santana was not on and even committed a big error that allowed three runs to score. Jason Bartlett, Torii Hunter and Joe Mauer each had two hits. Mauer ends the day with a .345 batting average. Derek Jeter and the Yankees had the day off.

Today, I am going to start with part one of a four part series on my choices for the top fifty Twins prospects. Previously, I had rated my Top 30 Twins prospects, but last fall, I did my first Top 50 prospects list. This summer, I continued with the fifty prospect list with my most recent update, around the All Star break.

Before I get into the list, I should point out a few things about the list. Read this as my Disclaimer. The first thing that I have to say is that, if they haven't played in the major leagues, I probably haven't seen them play, at least not more than a spring training at bat or two. So, my thoughts are really very opinion based. However, it is certainly more than that. Those who have been to this site the last couple of seasons know that I have posted highlights of all of the Twins minor league affiliates throughout their seasons. Looking at the box scores daily and following the player's stats and promotions, etc., I feel that I at least have some idea of what type of player each is. But I am also a firm believer that some subjectivity needs to go into scouting, and I don't have that. It isn't necessary all about numbers at the minor league levels.

A few other factors matter when coming up with this list. For pitchers, I will look at strikeouts and walks per inning. Obviously I prefer pitchers who can rack up some strikeouts without walking very many. It may be unfair, but generally, I will rank starting pitchers higher than relievers simply because I know that the Twins have a philosophy to keep their best prospects starting, unless their names are Jesse Crain or Pat Neshek.

For hitters, I will look at power numbers. I will also look at their strikeout numbers. Remember in my past prospect lists, I included Luis Rodriguez. He may not have a high ceiling, but I looked highly upon him because he has always walked more than he struck out.

For any player, though, I will look at their age in relation to their level of play. A player may hit just .250 in a season, but if he is just 19 years old and playing in Hi-A ball, I will likely have him higher up on the list than a guy hitting .350 in Low A at age 23.

But in the end, these prospects lists can be defined by three words... Just a Guess. I don't know. We don't know. Things like injuries or trades happen and alter the lists. There are late bloomers who will contribute to the Twins. Some of the high-level pitching prospects may never get out of AA ball. Fact is, trying to determine a list of which players will have the biggest impact at the major league level is very difficult. It may look like I have a good list, or there may be some rankings that you disagree with, but we won't know how "right" I was for another five to eight, to even ten years down the line.

So, to summarize, please don't take this list of prospects as anything too serious. It is simply a list of Twins prospects in an order that I feel is most right, right now. Remember, I last did a Top 50 prospect list back in mid-June, and things have already changed since then. Really, what it amounts to is a fun list to create some discussion. Ultimately, as someone who follows the Twins minor leagues, I feel that all fifty of the players that I rank this week deserve mention. They deserve a little recognition among Twins fans. To be honest, last year, I went to a 50 player list because I didn't feel right cutting it down to 30. Well, I had to leave some players off of the Top 50 prospect list that either had very strong 2006 seasons.

That is enough of a lead-in, right? Let's get to the list! You will see that for each player, I will give their name, position and age. I will note which team or teams they played for in 2006. I will mention how the team acquired him. I will share a few thoughts on the player. I will try to guess where he will spend the 2007 season, and finally, I will project when the player could make a major league debut. This is, of course, assuming that the player will eventually make the major leagues. Of course, there is no way to know that, and many from this list will probably not get there.

If you have any questions or comments on any of these players or their rankings, I would love to hear your thoughts. The other three parts of this list will be posted next week, culminating in the Top 10 list next Friday. Also next week, I have another Q&A lined up with another Twins prospect. If you have thoughts, or if you have a Top 10, 20, 30, or 50 Prospect list, I would love to see it and share it with other Twins fans, so please e-mail me or leave Comments below.

#50 – Dan Leatherman – RHP – 21

2006 Team: GCL Twins/Elizabethton Twins/Beloit Snappers

Acquired: signed with Twins as undrafted free agent out of West Virginia U.

Leatherman was really a great story. After four years at West Virginia, Leatherman was not drafted. However, he went to the Metrodome for a tryout. Next thing he knew, he was signed and went to the GCL Twins. In three games, he gave up just five hits and struck out eight in nine innings and was moved up to Elizabethton. He pitched in five games for E-Town and gave up just seven hits and a walk while striking out 14 hitters in 14 innings. He spent the rest of the season pitching well in Beloit. There he gave up 17 hits (with 8 walks) in 22 innings. He struck out 25. It was almost a surprise to read a box score in which he gave up a run. Someone had to come in at #50, so I figured a good story would be my choice.

2007 Projection: I would guess he will start at Ft. Myers in their bullpen

Potential: short-reliever

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#49 – Caleb Moore – C – 23

2006 Teams: Beloit Snappers/Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 4th round pick in 2005 out of E. Tennessee St. U.

Moore started the season in Beloit. In 68 games, he hit .286/.336/.400 with 12 doubles, five triples and two home runs. The free-swinger was promoted to Ft. Myers. He hit just .220/.289/.317 with five doubles and a homer. He really needs to work on his defense. Twins fans obviously hope that the Twins only need a backup catcher for a lot of years, so Moore will have to improve behind the plate.

2007 Projection: start at Ft. Myers with a chance to get up to New Britain

Potential: Backup catcher

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#48 – Adam Hawes – RHP – 23

2006 Team: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Free Agent signing in 2004 out of Connors State

After being the top pitcher in the Appalachian League in 2005, Hawes missed a lot of time due to injury in 2006. When he did throw, he showed why he is considered a solid prospect. He went 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA. He made 14 starts and 10 relief appearances. In a total of 87.1 innings, he didn't strike out many (65) and walked too many (37). It was almost a wasted year for Hawes as he was never really healthy enough to get on a role. 2007 will be a very important season for Hawes. He throws relatively hard and has three quality pitches. He just needs to get sharper with all three of them.

2007 Projection: long relief/starter for Ft. Myers

Potential: late inning reliever, or long relief

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#47 – Tyler Robertson – LHP – 18

2006 Team: GCL Twins

Acquired: Twins 3rd round pick in 2006 from Citrus Heights, CA

Robertson is the son of a former Twins scout. A lefty who throws fairly hard and stands at 6-5 is going to be a quality prospect. But it wasn't just his height that got him drafted so high. Robertson is a very good pitcher. After signing, he went to the GCL where he went 4-2 with a 4.25 ERA. In 48.2 innings, he walked 15 and struck out 54! Robertson supposedly has a very awkward, unique delivery, so it will be interesting to see how he develops in the coming years.

2007 Projection: starter at Elizabethton

Potential: potential to be a #2 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

#46 – Steve Singleton – SS/2B – 21

2006 Teams: Elizabethton Twins

Acquired: Twins 11th round pick in 2006 out of U of San Diego

Singleton expected to be drafted several rounds earlier, but he is happy to be with the Twins organization. At San Diego this year (his junior year), he hit .363 with 17 doubles, two triples and five home runs. After signing, he reported to Elizabethton where he continued to hit well. In 41 games, he hit .340/.368/.556 with nine doubles, five triples and four home runs. Not a tall man, he is good with the glove, but a move to 2B may be in his future.

2007 Projection: IF at Beloit

Potential: utility middle infielder with solid bat.

Could be in Minnesota in: 2010

#45 – Tristan Crawford – RHP – 24

2006 Team: Fort Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 2nd round pick in 2001 from Philadelphia

Crawford is a guy that has been under the radar as he has moved consistently up the organization's ladder. This year in AA New Britain, he pitched in 46 games (starting two). He went 6-5 with a 3.65 ERA. In 98.1 innings, He walked 33 and struck out 97. Those are very solid numbers. I am impressed by the strikeout rate, and he was actually one of the bright spots in a frustrating New Britain season.

2007 Projection: middle relief in Rochester

Potential: back end bullpen innings eater.

Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#44 – Juan Portes – IF/OF – 20

2006 Teams: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 15th round pick in 2004 out of Malden, Mass., HS

It was a tough and frustrating season for Portes. Although it is felt that he has a strong bat, and a big future, he just did not hit much in 2006. He hit .231/.278/.310 with 9 doubles, three triples and two doubles. He drove in 33 runs in his 75 games. Of course, he started out the season by breaking a bone after slipping on some ice in the locker room. He missed time throughout the season. Secondly, he played several positions for the team this year. He played 2B, 3B and LF. I think his best position will be LF, and I think that once he gets to play just one position and concentrate on it, his bat will turn around too. That said, he needs to make some adjustments to the breaking ball.

2007 Projection: playing OF for Ft. Myers

Potential: potential big bat

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#43 – Justin Jones – LHP – 21

2006 Team: New Britain Rockcats/Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: in 2004 trade with Cubs for Doug Mientkiewicz

I was quite high on Justin Jones last fall. He ranked in the Top 20 a year ago and the Twins put him on their 40 man roster. He started the season at New Britain, but despite a decent record and ERA, he was sent down to Ft. Myers to make room for Matt Garza. Once he got to Ft. Myers, he really struggled. Late in the year, he returned to New Britain. In New Britain, Jones went 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA in six games. He also struck out 29 hitters in 27.2 innings. However, he walked 15 and his WHIP was 1.63. In 12 games down in Ft. Myers, he was 1-3 with a 5.22 ERA. His WHIP jumped to 1.73 there. He is left-handed. He is on the 40 man roster. He can breathe, so you can't just completely give up on him. It could just be that he isn't healthy, or maybe it is a confidence thing.

2007 Projection: starting for New Britain again.

Potential: #4 starter, bullpen

Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#42 – Loek Van Mil – RHP – 22

2006 Team: GCL Twins

Acquired: Twins signed as free agent in 2005 from the Netherlands

The Twins signed Ludovicious Van Mil, the 7-1 right-handed pitcher from The Netherlands. Although he is a little old to still be in the GCL, because of his height and that he hasn't pitched a lot, he could have a future. Generally pitchers that are this tall are awkward and uncoordinated. Most reports say that Van Mil is very coordinated which makes me believe that he will be able to find a proper release point. If so, he could be a middle of the rotation type. In 10 games (and 43.2 innings) with the GCL Twins, he was 1-2 with a 3.30 ERA. He gave up 51 hits and 17 walks, so he still has a lot of work to do. But a guy this big has to be given a shot.

2007 Projection: Pitching for Beloit

Potential: #3 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2010

#41 – Felix Molina – SS – 23

2006 Team: New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Twins 21st round pick in 2001 from Puerto Rico

Molina seemingly came out of nowhere to have an All-Star caliber year for the Rockcats. In 116 games, Molina hit .270/.319/.403 with 16 doubles, four triples, nine homers and 50 RBI. He also dropped down 16 sacrifice bunts. In a lineup with several top picks and prospects, Molina was pretty consistent throughout the season. I expect that Molina may return to New Britain next year. That makes it a big year for him. Can he take that next step forward, or will he go the other direction?

2007 Projection: back at New Britain at 2B

Potential: decent hitting utility infielder

Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#40 – Zach Ward – RHP – 22

2006 Team: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: in July 31, 2006 trade with Cincinnati Reds for Kyle Lohse

It was a tale of two seasons for Zach Ward. He came to the Twins organization from the Reds in the Kyle Lohse deal. At the time of the trade, he was 7-0 with a 2.29 ERA in 20 games at Dayton in the Midwest League. He stayed in the same league, with Beloit and in six starts, he went 1-4 with a 5.93 ERA. Opponents also went from hitting .188 against him to hitting .250 against him with the Snappers. There are two points to be made there. First, maybe he was just tiring as the season was going on. But second, Terry Ryan has proven to have a knack for finding diamonds in the rough on minor league diamonds, so it is possible that Ward could be good.

2007 Projection: starting for Ft. Myers

Potential: 4th starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#39 – Errol Simonitsch – LHP – 24

2006 Team: New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Twins 6th round pick in 2003 out of Gonzaga

It was a rocky season in New Britain for Simonitsch. Lots of ups but too many downs as well. He did well in 2005 in half of a season in the Eastern League, but 2006 was tough. He made 26 starts (27 games) and went 8-14 with a 4.48 ERA. In 148+ innings, he had just 89 strikeouts. Although he doesn't throw hard, at 6-6, I believe that there is still a future for him in the organization.

2007 Projection: starting in Rochester

Potential: 4th starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

#38 – Matt Tolbert – SS/2B – 24

2006 Teams: New Britain Rockcats/Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 16th round draft pick in 2004 out of U of Mississippi

Tolbert was a utility infielder at AA New Britain. Things didn't go well, so he was sent back down to Ft. Myers and something clicked. At the All-Star break, he returned to New Britain and he continued to hit there. He was the SethSpeaks minor league hitter of the month for June. Although his numbers leveled out after that, he continued to play every day. As some of the Twins utility infielders get more expensive, a guy like Tolbert could eventually get a shot.

2007 Projection: utility infielder in New Britain

Potential: utility infielder with good bat.

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#37 – Greg Yersich – C – 19

2006 Teams: Elizabethton Twins

Acquired: Twins 7th round pick in 2005

When you look at the overall numbers of Yersich this season at Elizabethton, you won't be impressed. In 50 games, he hit .244/.281/.376 with 12 doubles, a triple and four home runs. He will need to cut down some on his strikeouts. But I like the power potential. I also like that during the playoffs, Yersich had two hits in all three games. In other words, he came through as the season went a long.

2007 Projection: playing shortstop for Beloit.

Potential: Productive, if unspectacular, middle infielder

Could be in Minnesota in: 2010

#36 – Garrett Jones – 1B/DH – 25

2006 Team: Rochester Red Wings

Acquired: signed with Twins as free agent in 2002.

I think that Jones is one of the tougher players to rank. He could be higher. Some may rank him much higher. He really hit well for the Red Wings in the playoffs. Jim Mandelaro (and others) wrote that he was easily the Red Wings MVP for the season. Many say that he made great strides in his offense and defense. However, I look at his numbers and I don't see an increase at all. His batting average went from .244 in 2005 to .238 in 2006. His OBP went from .297 to .302. His SLG% went from .445 to .430. His doubles went from 22 to 32 (I like that!). His home runs went from 24 to 21. I am just not seeing a lot of improvement offensively. His strikeouts per plate appearance stayed the same at 4.3. So, I don't see the improvements. That said, I can see him coming up to the Twins next year and being an adequate backup, DH, pinch hitter. Some think that he shouldn't even stay on the 40 man roster. I strongly disagree with that. Despite the lack of improvement, there is a lot of power potential, and he is still just 25 years old. He has another year worth of options, so they might as well keep him around. Especially because every report I have read on him says that he is a very hard worker.

2007 Projection: splitting time between Minnesota and Rochester as DH/PH/Backup 1B

Potential: DH, or pinch-hitter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2007

Any thoughts, let me know. E-mail me. Be sure to check back next week for Prospects #21-35!

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