I
have meant to analyze a Scott Baker start since his call up, but it
just never seems to work out for me. Yesterday, the Twins played an
afternoon game in Oakland. Normally Fox Sports North does not
televise weekday afternoon games, but they decided to broadcast the
game. Of course, game time was 2:35, and I have to work until 5. I
contemplated taking a few hours off of work, but it is really hard
to justify that. So, I did the next best thing, I recorded it! By
the time I got home, Baker was out of the game, and I was able to
watch the rest of the game on TV2 while scouting/charting Baker's
pitches on TV1. Then, as I completed charting Baker's pitches, the
replay of the game aired again. So, I really didn't need to tape it,
but that is alright.
If you would like to go back to previous "Analysis" articles, they are done for Brad Radke, Johan Santana, JD Durbin, Felix Hernandez, and yesterday's analysis of Francisco Liriano.
Yesterday afternoon, the Twins got a much-needed win over Oakland. They even got plenty of offensive production that, at the beginning of the game, made me wonder if they would be able to do much of anything. Francisco Liriano's ceiling is incredibly high, but Scott Baker is right now the better 'pitcher.' His 'stuff' may never equal that of Liriano, but right now he really uses his knowledge as much as his arm to be effective. Really, in my mind, Francisco Liriano could become a multiple Cy Young Award winner. Scott Baker may be a solid #2 starter for 15 years with what he has. To me, the styles of these two pitchers really compliment and offset each other much in the way that Brad Radke and Johan Santana do.
So while Francisco Liriano gets all the well-deserved glory, Scott Baker has been nothing but spectacular in his eight big league starts this season. So, of course, that makes me very interested in how he does it. We frequently hear about him being compared to Brad Radke, and those comparisons are obvious. On the mound, Baker is calm and stoic, and nothing really seems to affect him. He effectively uses all three of his above average big league pitches, but like Radke, everything is based off of his fastball. We found again yesterday that one of Liriano's biggest issues is controlling the strikezone with his fastball. To this point, Baker has really done a good job of that. He then keeps hitters off balance with a good curveball and a changeup.
Let's see how his performance yesterday translates into this analysis:
PREGAME THOUGHTS
To me, it is hard to analyze a pitcher against the Oakland Athletics. They have a complete team of hitters that take a lot of pitches. That means a high pitch count. Tuesday, Liriano threw 103 pitches in 3.2 innings. The Strib's Lavelle E. Neal reminded me that on Monday night, Brad Radke had to throw 107 pitches in just five innings. A full study could be, and probably has been, done on the number of pitches that the A's hitters take, as well as how many two-strike pitches that they find a way to foul off.
I guess heading into the game, I do expect a solid performance from Baker. Why? Because he does have control of his fastball and will more consistently get, and stay, ahead in the count. Because of that, the A's hitters will hopefully have to swing and put the ball into play much earlier.
But I guess that's why they play the games. Here is how Scott Baker did yesterday against the A's:
BAKER ANALYSIS
So, let's get to the observations!
I
think that it is safe to say that the story the last two games has
not only been the Twins two top pitching prospects, but also a
viewing of just what that Oakland offense is all about. Scott Baker
threw pretty well, but the A's hitters took a lot of pitches and
fouled off numerous two-strike pitches, forcing Baker to last just
five innings. I was impressed though. He kept throwing strikes and
challenging hitters throughout his innings. With help from the
offense, Baker was able to record his second win with that Twins.
Anyway, as you know if you've seen these analyses in the past, I tracked, pitch-by-pitch, Baker's pitching performance. I noted which type of pitch he threw and and then jotted down the speed of the pitch given on Fox Sports Net. (Thankfully, it was available throughout the game) I realize that the radar gun speed given on the telecast is subject to debate, but it's all I had to work with. So, how did he do it?
Let's start with the high level look at Baker's performance:
IP H R ER BB SO
Scott Baker 5.0 5 3 3 1 3
Of the 105 pitches that Baker threw, 68 of them (64.8%) were strikes. 67% is generally considered very good so Baker was really good, but could be better. Again, this is probably a very good number against the patient Oakland A's lineup that will take borderline pitches.
Here is a breakdown of the type of pitch that Baker threw.
Fastball - 68 (64.8%)
Curveball - 25 (23.8%)
Change Up - 12 (11.4%)
One important thing for me was his ability to throw strikes, particularly with his fastball. So here is a breakdown of his strikes and balls with each of his pitches:
Fastball - 47/68 strikes (69.1%)
Curveball - 11/25 strikes (44.0%)
Changeup - 10/12 strikes (83.3%)
Here are the number of pitches he threw each inning and the type of pitch:
1st inning - 18 pitches (13 fastball, 4 curveballs, 1 changeup)
2nd inning - 20 pitches (14 fastball, 4 curveballs, 2 changeup)
3rd inning - 14 pitches (8 fastball, 4 curveballs, 2 changeup)
4th inning - 12 pitches (11 fastball, 0 curveballs, 1 changeup)
5th inning - 41 pitches (22 fastball, 13 curveballs, 6 changeup)
Total - 105 pitches (68 fastball, 25 curveballs, 12 changeup)
It was interesting to me if Baker was able to maintain velocity on his fastball (and his other pitches) throughout the game.
Fastball Curveball Changeup
1st inning - 91.5 80.3 82.0
2nd inning - 91.1 78.5 81.5
3rd inning - 91.1 77.8 81.5
4th inning - 92.6 N/A 82.0
5th inning - 92.7 77.8 81.7
It
was interesting to see the difference in speed of Baker's fastball.
He throws two distinct fastballs. He throws a 2-seam fastball that
comes in between 88 and 90 mph, but he also throws a 4-seam fastball
that is straighter, but thrown between 92 and 94 mph. Either way,
the velocity on his offspeed pitches is slow enough to be deceptive.
Anyway, to show the range of speed with his fastball, here are the
number of times he reached each number on the radar gun:
88 mph - 3
89 mph - 4
90 mph - 6
91 mph - 15
92 mph - 12
93 mph - 10
94 mph - 17
95 mph - 1
Did Baker alter the pitches he threw each time through the batting order? The A's had just two hits the first time through the order. They had two hits the second time through. Three batters faced Baker a third time. Mark Ellis walked before Jason Kendall's two-run double. He got Mark Kotsay to pop up to end the fifth and end his outing.
Time Through Order FB FB% CB CB% CU CU% Total Pitches
1st 32 71.1% 9 20.0% 4 8.9% 45
2nd 28 60.9% 13 28.3% 5 10.9% 46
3rd 8 57.1% 3 21.4% 3 21.4% 14
So what does this show? In my opinion, it shows, well, not too much really. Like with Liriano a day earlier, it shows that Baker had to throw a lot of pitches to a lot of batters. Likewise, eight of the nine A's hitters averaged seeing more than 4.5 pitches per plate appearance. Of course, 20 of those pitches were fouled off with two strikes to extend at bats.
Here is a quick look at the pitches he threw on each count:
FB CB CU
0-0 12 5 4
0-1 7 2 2
0-2 2 3 0
1-0 8 0 1
1-1 5 2 2
1-2 11 7 0
2-0 4 0 1
2-1 5 0 0
2-2 7 5 1
3-0 1 0 0
3-1 1 0 0
3-2 5 1 1
Do first pitch strikes matter? Yesterday I said that for someone like Liriano, it was important to get ahead in the count so that he can really work the hitters over. With a control pitcher like Baker, the first pitch strike is obviously good, but not as important since he is more likely to even the count at 1-1. Last night, he threw first pitch strikes to just 12 of 21 batters. Of those 21 batters, he started 12 of them off with a fastball (4 with a changeup and 5 with a curveball).
SUMMARY
I have to say that for just a five inning start, I was rather impressed with Scott Baker. Poise. Confidence. Stuff. Those are all words to describe Baker. He showed all of that. He showed a good fastball that he can throw harder than had been advertised, but the fact that he really has two very distinct fastballs, with good control of each, is very encouraging. More strikes from his curveball would be helpful. Yesterday, he was on with his changeup too. Three major league pitches. I do believe that Baker has a very bright future ahead of him. Some may not be impressed with the comparisons to Brad Radke. I happen to think that being compared to someone who has pitched in the big leagues for more than a decade is a good thing. I also think that generally is said because of Baker's poise. However, Baker also throws harder than Radke and has a better curveball too. If he can ever get a Radke-like changeup, he will be an All-Star!
So, what do you think? Is Scott Baker worthy of 'top prospect' status? Can he be an "ace"? Would you picture him as more of a middle of the rotation type? What does he have to work on? Should be be given a spot in the Twins 2006 starting rotation? What are your thoughts on Baker, or Liriano? Send me an e-mail.