Wednesday September 22, 2004
A LOOK BACK:
OUR PRESEASON PREDICTIONS
Happy Wednesday everyone!
Today, I will just be re-posting an entry from Opening Day this year. It was a Discussion Question where I asked the readers a number of questions about what they thought would happen during the Twins 2004 season. It is very interesting to look back. And, well, I am almost embarrassed by just how wrong I was about just about everything. But at the same time, it is just fun to look back at what we were thinking just 5 1/2 months ago, before anything happened. (For more fun reading, many of these people also volunteered their thoughts and predictions on a Major League scale. Yeah, I predicted that David Riske would lead the AL in Saves. Oops!)
Why am I being lazy today? Well, it was a long night last night. I had a good friend come out and help me try to fix my computer. Do you know how bad Ad-Aware is? Well, this friend is a computer person who has seen much of this before. The most files he has seen affected by Ad-Aware on a single computer was about 300. Yeah, I had over 4,000!!! And after a Virus Scan, I found four more files affected by viruses. In other words, I spent a lot of time at the computer trying to fix stuff. So, not a lot of time to research or write. So again, I apologize and hope you understand.
As far as last night's Twins game... how fun was that?! Most of the starters got the day off. Luis Rivas and Corey Koskie got to play after missing so much time of late. Jacque Jones didn't play against Mark Buehrle the day before, so he played. Lew Ford moved to center. But I was thrilled to see Jason Kubel DHing, Michael Restovich in LF and especially seeing Jason Bartlett get a game at shortstop. How fun was it to see Resto hit another LONG home run? How about seeing Kubel rip singles his first two at bats before drilling a hanging curveball over the fence in right field for his first major league home run?? (Is Jones' starting spot in jeopardy? Could Ford or Kubel play RF in the playoffs, with the other playing the DH role?) JD Durbin could start on Thursday. I can hope!
And finally, congratulations to Jason Bartlett on his first big league hit. With runners on 1st and 3rd, Bartlett also recorded his first RBI with a single to right field.
One more note, I obviously didn't want Jesse Crain to give up the grand slam to Juan Uribe. However, wasn't it fun to see someone allow some of JC Romero's runners to score? It just somehow seems fair.
All year, I have been touting the accomplishments of the five Twins I felt were their top prospects (at least the five closest to contributing) at the beginning of the season by updating their statistics at the left side of this page. It is exciting that all five have now contributed to the Twins at the major league level after really dominating the minor leagues. See their updated stats to the left...
On that note, please feel free to share your thoughts and ideas with me on anything Twins-related, Vikings-related, TV-related, Movies-related, Music-related, ok anything that is related to anything. Just send me an e-mail, and have a great day!
Here are the predictions we had for the 2004 Twins heading into this season:
DISCUSSION QUESTION:
TWINS PREDICTIONS
On Friday, the first of the two-part Discussion asked a number of questions regarding the 2004 Major League Baseball season, predictions, etc. Today, we will discuss predictions for the 2004 Minnesota Twins season. Here were the questions:
1.) How will Joe Mauer do in his rookie season?
2.) Who will lead the Twins in (and how many):
a.) Batting Average
b.) Home Runs
c.) RBI
d.) Stolen Bases
3.) Who will lead the Twins in (and how many):
a.) Wins
b.) ERA
c.) Saves
4.) Will Jacque Jones stay with the team all season?
5.) Which minor leaguer(s) do you think will have the most impact on the Twins season?
6.) What, in your opinion, is the X-Factor for the Twins this year?
7.) How many games will the Twins win, and what place will that be in the AL Central?
8.) What storylines will you be following throughout the Twins season (example - Rivas Wins HR Title, or Bartlett Replaces Guzman)
SETH'S THOUGHTS
I will start with my answers to the questions and then post your responses to them.
1.) Joe Mauer - Everyone seems to have an opinion on what to expect from Joe Mauer in his rookie season. Everyone seems to believe that, in the next couple of years, he will establish himself as one of the best catchers in all of baseball, maybe even a potential Hall of Famer. Although I would love for that to be the case, let's not get ahead of ourselves quite yet. He is just 20 years old, and a rookie, so let's just let him play and see what happens.
Because he is 20 years old and only played 1/2 season at AA, there are a lot of people who think he isn't ready. The fact is that many in the Twins organization felt he could have been ready last year. Also, it isn't like there has never been a successful career that started when the player wasn't even legally able to drink. Ken Griffey, Ivan Rodriguez, Miguel Cabrera, Johnny Bench. Obviously this list could go on and on with great, Hall of Fame caliber players.
But I digress. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We know and have already seen just how good he is defensively. He three out over 50% of base runners in the minor leagues. He showed off his arm so well this spring that teams are already choosing not to run against him. Pitchers rave about his ability to call a game. Umpires talk about how much easier their job is when he is catching, and how respectful he is. He blocks the ball in the dirt very well. These are all things that we didn't see from AJ Pierzynski. So, when you judge Joe Mauer's performance, don't just look at his offensive numbers.
So, what do I think those offensive numbers will look like? I am optimistic, and just seeing Mauer's plate presence and his sweet swing, I really do think that he will do well. Throughout the season, pitchers will make adjustments to him, but with those two things (And a smart, humble, level-headed head on his shoulders), he will be able to make those adjustments. Here are my predictions for Joe Mauer's rookie season. I think he will hit .290/.380/.410 with 9 homers and 55 RBI. I think that the Twins would be thrilled with such numbers and it would be something to build that "Hall of Fame" career.
2.) Who will lead the Twins in:
a.) Batting Average - Jacque Jones (.315), Shannon Stewart (.307), Corey Koskie (.303), Doug Mientkiewicz (.298).
b.) Home Runs - Jacque Jones (34), Torii Hunter (32). I think that Corey Koskie and Michael Cuddyer will each hit over 20.
c.) RBI - Jacque Jones (110), Torii Hunter (106)
d.) Stolen Bases - Luis Rivas (22), Cristian Guzman (16), Torii Hunter (15)
3.) Who will lead the Twins in:
a.) Wins - Kyle Lohse (18), Johan Santana (15), Brad Radke (14) and Carlos Silva (13)
b.) ERA - Starter - Johan Santana (3.20), Kyle Lohse (3.58), Reliever - Grant Balfour (2.38), Joe Nathan (2.97)
c.) Saves - Joe Nathan (34)
4.) Will Jacque Jones remain with the team all season?
I hope so (see the above hitting statistics) from a team perspective for 2004. However, with Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart locked up for multiple years and Jacque about to make big money, this will probably be Jones' last season with the Twins. Terry Ryan chose Stewart over Jones in the offseason. With the Twins abundance of OF prospects ready to play in the big leagues (Michael Cuddyer, Michael Ryan, Lew Ford, Michael Restovich, Jason Kubel, Brian Simmons) or nearly ready (Josh Rabe) or a couple of years from being ready (Trent Oeltjen, James Tomlin, Alex Romero, Denard Span), it simply doesn't make sense to throw more money into the outfield.
However, I hate to see a midseason trade, especially of such a popular teammate like Jones. That transaction could be detrimental to any team chemistry that the Twins have at that time. So, now that the season has begun, they really should keep Jacque for the full season and make a deal after the playoffs.
5.) Which minor leaguers will most impact the Twins this season?
I think that JD Durbin may be seen at some point during the season. I hope he's brought up as a starter or else I think he should just stay in the minors. I believe that at some point Lew Ford will come up and play an important role as the fourth outfielder. I think Michael Restovich should be in the big leagues, and if he were with any of probably twenty organizations, he would be starting.
But I think that two rookies will play more 'key' roles. First, we know that Justin Morneau can hit. If he works a couple of things out in AAA, he could come up early in the season and take over the DH role and hit 20 homers. I think that Jesse Crain should be on the big league roster, but because he wasn't on the 40 man roster, I think it is ok to start him in the minor leagues. However, I think that he will come up sometime around the All-Star break and be a dominant set-up man for Joe Nathan (also setting the stage for him becoming the team's closer in 2005).
6.) What is the X-Factor for the Twins this season?
There are a couple of things that would really help the Twins in 2004. One obviously would be to get some production from the middle infield. Guzman and Rivas will be given every opportunity. Don't be surprised if Michael Cuddyer plays significant time at 2B. Some think that the bullpen will be an X-Factor. I don't disagree. Joe Nathan has never been a closer (doesn't bother me), JC Romero was awful last year (he needs to throw strikes!) and Juan Rincon and Grant Balfour are young (but both have good stuff and live arms). The 4 and 5 spots in the starting rotations could prove to be an X-Factor. I think Carlos Silva will show that he can be a solid big league starter in that 4th spot. I am concerned about Brad Thomas and would prefer to see Grant Balfour in the rotation, but that will work itself out (with Rick Helling or Joe Roa or Durbin also being factored in).
I think the X-Factor for the Twins is Health. The Twins are saying that the middle infielders were hurt most of last season. Koskie and Mientkiewicz battled injuries all last season and played through much of it. Both had offseason surgery. Shannon Stewart has had injuries. Jacque Jones battled the groin injury much of last season. The most important injury to watch may be Johan Santana's elbow. If the Twins can stay relatively healthy, they should win the division handily.
7.) How many Wins will the Twins have, and where will they finish in the division?
I think they will go 92-70, which will be good enough for first place in the AL Central.
8.) Headlines or Storylines for the Twins
Twins Get Three Awards - Mauer wins Rookie of the Year, Jacque Jones MVP, Ron Gardenhire Manager of the Year.
Morneau Finally Up Again!
Twins Clinch By Labor Day
So there you have it, some of my Minnesota Twins Predictions for the 2004 season. Tonight is Game #1 of 162. I can't wait! I hope I get to actually watch some if it!! Let's get to your thoughts on the upcoming Twins season:
From Anthony Fox, The Bad Twin
1) Mauer will have a fine season, live up to the hype, hit for average but not power.
2) A) Shannon Stewart - .310 B) Torii Hunter - 31 C) Torii Hunter - 102 D) Torii Hunter - 21
3) A) Radke - 17 B) Starter: Santana - 3.15 / Reliever: Rincon 2.50 C) Nathan - 25 (maybe Romero gets 5-10)
4) No, he's gone at the break for a young player, pitcher or starter. Resto takes over and has a slow start but strong 2nd half.
5) Restovich will take over in RF midseason and do very well. If injuries occur in the bullpen, I could see Jesse Crain and Kevin Tolar making a difference. If Mientkiewicz gets injured, look for Morneau to make him a Wally Pipp. Ditto with Rivas/Punto Guzman/Bartlett
6) Health is always an X-Factor in baseball, but I'd add in the effectiveness of the middle infield. If Guzman and Rivas can put up decent numbers, the Twins will win a lot of games.
7) Twins will win 84 games and win the division.
8) "Believe the Hype - Mauer for Real" "Twins fend off ChiSox" "Kansas City eats Twins' Dust" "Brad Thomas and Grant Balfour make Twins reconsider how good their Minor League Pitching is"From Kirk Beller
1. mauer this year: .301, 13HR, 65RBI, >50% of baserunners thrown out.
2. a. average: mientkiewicz
b. hr: hunter
c. rbi: hunter
d. steals: guzman
3. a. wins: lohse
b. era: lohse
c. saves: nathan
4. jones will stay.
5. if he gets the at bats, which i'll say he will, morneau will be the man this season (among the current minor leaguers).
6. x-factor--al newman. i want to see if he can pull his head from his rectum and figure out how to get these guys running the bases better. for a team that supposedly does the 'little things' right, they sure don't steal a lot of bases, and they don't seem to play smart on the base paths. it's infuriating.
7. 93 wins, 1st place.
8. i love santana, but i'll be watching to see how he holds up to the increased innings. watching to see if morneau, crain, and durbin get a shot with the big club will be fun too.From David Bergner, The Baseball Savant
I'm no Twins homer, but I do like the make-up of that team!1.If Mauer goes .280/.350/.450 it'll be a tremendously successful season. Bottom line for the Twins is that they'll take a hit offensively going from Pierzynski to Mauer. Just for 2004 though.2. Twins leader in BA = Shannon StewartTwins leader in HR = Corey KoskieTwins leader in RBI = Corey KoskieTwins leader in SB = Christian Guzman3.Twins leader in Wins = Johan SantanaTwins leader in ERA = Johan SantanaTwins leader in Saves = Joe Nathan4.Jacque Jones shouldn't stay with the team all season, but the Twins probably shouldn't have had Stewart either. With Restovich and Cuddyer in the system and ready to go, they seem like a cheaper solution. I'm not extremely close to the situation, but Mike & Mike have nothing left to prove.5.This isn't conventional, but I think Grant Balfour could be the key to a really great Twins season. Balfour has great K rates so he could be a very interesting piece to the puzzle. Obviously Jesse Crain and Joe Mauer are important, but Balfour could combine to make a nice Santana-Balfour-Radke trio in the playoffs and that could be hard to handle. Balfour should start as the #5 starter, but if he's effective, I'd give him 30 starts. I hope Morneau plays everyday as well.6.I think the X-Factor is Grant Balfour this season7.I'm going to say the Twins win 88 games and win the AL Central8.How successful Balfour is this season, Seeing how Morneau does, How does Mauer do.From Will Young from Will's World
Joe Mauer: .275 batting average, .350 on base percentage, .405 slugging percentage; 6 homeruns, 71 RBIs, 65 walks/60 strikeouts
Batting Average: Corey Koskie .316
Homeruns: Jacque Jones 32
RBIs: Koskie 112
Stolen Bases: Luis Rivas 17
Wins: Kyle Lohse 19-7
ERA: Kyle Lohse: 3.21
Saves: Jesse Crain: 18Jacque Jones will remain with the team all season and be traded in November
Jesse Crain will lead the team in saves after being called up in July. Nathan will then team with him to make a formidable right-handed bullpen.
X-Factor: How much playing time is created for Michael Cuddyer
The Twins will win 94 games and finish first in the AL Central
"Gardenhire Really Works His Own Tail Off", "LeCroy Hungry", "Jose Offerman is Actually Useful", "MAUER POWER: Homerun off Wolf helps Twins win Game 7 of WS"
From Eric Justman Reichart from The Baseball Boys
1.) How will Joe Mauer do in his rookie season?
I think Mauer will be fine. I'm thinking he'll bat .275 or so with 10 homeruns a handful of doubles and OBP of .375 or so. Maybe that's wishful thinking, but that's what I'm hoping for.
2.) Who will lead the Twins in (and how many):
a.) Batting Average - Jacque Jones will finally be able to figure out lefties in 2004 and will hit .320. The Twins will then promptly trade him to the Devil Rays to get a minor leaguer, and a PTBNL.
b.) Home Runs - Torii Hunter with 29.
c.) RBI - Corey Koskie will swat in 90 RBI's. If you're keeping track at home, that's one RBI for every time his back stiffens up during the season.
d.) Stolen Bases - Guzman with 16. He could have 25, but he dogs 9 of them out because he just doesn't care.3.) Who will lead the Twins in (and how many):
a.) Wins - Kyle Lohse finally doesn't have a mid-season meltdown, and wins 17.
b.) ERA - Johan Santana will post a 2.90 ERA (but he'll walk 80 batters doing it).
c.) Saves - Um, Joe Nathan with...384.) Will Jacque Jones stay with the team all season?
Nope. I have no idea where he goes or for who, but he's gone.
5.) Which minor leaguer(s) do you think will have the most impact on the Twins season?
Michael Cuddyer. IF he gets the at bats. I can see him hitting .280 with 25 homeruns if he's used regularly.
6.) What, in your opinion, is the X-Factor for the Twins this year?
Bullpen. It's either going to be a dynamite, shut-down machine, or it's going to blowup in the Twins' face and lose a lot of games.
7.) How many games will the Twins win, and what place will that be in the AL Central?
Twins win 89, good enough for second place. The Royals win the division with 91 wins.
8.) What storylines will you be following throughout the Twins season (example - Rivas Wins HR Title, or Bartlett Replaces Guzman):
Rivas and Guzman realize that they are not cut out to be Major League Baseball players, move to Vermont and get married.
From Ryan Maus (of Twins Chatter) from Northfield
1.) How will Joe Mauer do in his rookie season?
I think a realistic expectation for Mauer is a .275 AVG and .350 OBP with 8-10 HRs and 50-55 RBI. He could surprise w/ ROY numbers (.300 AVG, 15 HRs, 65-70 RBI) but I don't think that's likely this year. He should certainly be a well-above average defensive catcher this year.
2.) Who will lead the Twins in (and how many):
a.) Batting Average - Shannon Stewart: .307
b.) Home Runs - Torii Hunter: 32
c.) RBI - Corey Koskie: 105
d.) Stolen Bases - Luis Rivas: 273.) Who will lead the Twins in (and how many):
a.) Wins - Kyle Lohse: 18
b.) ERA - Johan Santana: 3.65
c.) Saves - Jesse Crain: 21 (mid-season callup)4.) Will Jacque Jones stay with the team all season?
No
5.) Which minor leaguer(s) do you think will have the most impact on the Twins season?
1. Jesse Crain 2. J.D. Durbin 3. Justin Morneau
6.) What, in your opinion, is the X-Factor for the Twins this year?
Carlos Silva- If he can develop into a solid #4 starter, that will have a ripple effect on the rest of the pitching staff. Balfour can remain in the bullpen (where we know he can be effective) and help a relief core that would be even more suspect without him.
7.) How many games will the Twins win, and what place will that be in the AL Central?
I think the Twins will take the division crown with about 88-92 wins. It will probably take another strong second half. KC's weak starting pitching will be the difference.
8.) What storylines will you be following throughout the Twins season (example - Rivas Wins HR Title, or Bartlett Replaces Guzman)
In a perfect world, these would be actual newspaper headlines that will appear throughout the 2004 season: "Super-Prospect Crain Dominates in Closer Role" "Rivas Continues Breakout Season" "LaTroy who? Romero Regains 2002 form" "Twins Release Disappointing Helling, Durbin Takes Over Rotation Slot"
From Jeremy Hegg from Sioux Falls
1) Joe Mauer will do very well, winning a controversial Gold Glove and hitting .292 with 11 home runs.
2) Twins leaders:a) batting average: Doug Mientkiewicz, .318
b) home runs: certainly not Doug; instead, Torii Hunter with 33 (yes, a Twin finally hits the big 3-0 again. Jacque Jones will, too, with 30).
c) RBI: a largely irrelevant and hard-to-guess stat. Hunter, 106.
d) SB: Guzman, 223) Pitching leaders:
a) Wins, Santana will go 19-10, while Lohse will win 16. Radke will end up with a middling 13-14 record.
b) ERA: our one true pitcher, Santana, with a sterling 2.71.
c) Saves: I think it's easy to predict that Joe Nathan will lead in saves, as he would have to be as bad as the 2001 LaTroy Hawkins to merit being demoted. Nathan's an intriguing but unproven commodity, but I say he ends up with 38 saves. Jesse Crain will figure largely into the Twins' pen, but not as a ninth-inning guy.4) Yes, even though it will be a dumb strategic move. Lew Ford will be traded to either Oakland, Los Angeles, Toronto, or Boston by the All-Star Break.
5) Crain. Morneau will make another cameo during the season, and he will acquaint himself much better with big-league pitching, ensuring an everyday breakout season in 2005.
6) The bullpen, of course. Any day, Santana could feel a pop, and that would be the end of it, but aside from that nightmarish scenario, the Twins bullpen will be the great unknown. I'm intrigued at how easily the Twins seem to develop major-league caliber players, and how poorly they utilize them. A savvier team would trade Restovich and Ford for some immediate arms or middle infield depth. Oh well.
7) They keep outperforming both the pundits' and the Pythagorean expectations. That will continue, because Pythagorean projections undervalue the Twins' strengths: balanced skill sets, good team fielding, and weak divisional competition. 91-71.
8) Mauer on the cover of SI. I suspect Rivas will not win the home run total; I would be happy if he got on base one-third of the time. The Twins outfield will be a highly telegenic, interviewable bunch, and you'll see features on them this season. They'll all brag about how nasty Santana's changeup is...From Leslie Monteiro
1.) How will Joe Mauer do in his rookie season?
He will do okay. The important thing is that he establish great rapport with pitchers and call great games.
2.) Who will lead the Twins in (and how many):
a.) Batting Average - Shannon Stewart
b.) Home Runs - Shannon Stewart
c.) RBI - Shannon Stewart
d.) Stolen Bases - Shannon Stewart3.) Who will lead the Twins in (and how many):
a.) Wins - Kyle Lohse -- 16
b.) ERA - Johan Santana --2.34
c.) Saves - Joe Nathan -- 384.) Will Jacque Jones stay with the team all season?
Yes
5.) Which minor leaguer(s) do you think will have the most impact on the Twins season?
Jesse Crain
6.) What, in your opinion, is the X-Factor for the Twins this year?
Carlos Silva. If he can really excel as a starter, he can help them to win the division
7.) How many games will the Twins win, and what place will that be in the AL Central?
83 -- Second place
8.) What storylines will you be following throughout the Twins season (example - Rivas Wins HR Title, or Bartlett Replaces Guzman)
Can Joe Nathan excel as a closer?
Can the offense be better?
Will Victory Sports One be on everyone's TV in the Twin Cities
Will Johan Santana do well in his first full year as a starter?Well, there are our thoughts on the Twins 2004 season. Tonight is game #1 of 162. I really, really hope that I get the opportunity to watch them at some point, preferably starting tonight! If you would like to share you thoughts to these questions or anything about the 2004 Twins, send me an e-mail.