Wednesday, September 19, 2007

 

SethSpeaks Top 50

Twins Prospects

Part 1 - #1-10

 

Good Morning! Today I am going to start my look at my Top 50 Twins prospects, but this time, I am going to do it a little bit differently. This time, I am going to start with my choices for the Twins Top 10 prospects. Again, the purposes of the Top Prospect lists are two fold. First, for me to try to make it look like I know what's going on with players in the Twins system. But secondly, it is to give deserved credit to 50 (or more) Twins minor leaguers who are all working hard to get to the big leagues. This list is strictly Seth's opinions and rankings based on several factors including 2007 stats, career stats, background, reading a lot of box scores, other articles, and finally, I have tried to get the opinions of some people closer to the teams and games than I am. That kind of information helps me move players just a little bit up or down.

So I am going to try this method of starting with the Top 10 and later we will be coming back with #s 11-20. But please feel free to e-mail any thoughts you may have on this list, or where you believe others should rank. Leave Comments below as well. Let's get to the list:

 

 

SethSpeaks Top 10 Twins Prospects

 

 

#10Erik Lis – OF – 23

2007 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 9th round pick in 2005 out of U. of Evansville

Erik Lis can flat-out hit. Those who follow the Twins minor league system knew that long before he hit a home run off of Roger Clemens. On the season, Lis hit .274/.334/.447 with 34 doubles, four triples, 18 homers and 97 RBI. 35 of his 56 extra base hits came in the 2nd half of the season. Of course, defense will remain a question mark for Lis, and his best defensive position is probably going to be DH. It is interesting to note that the lefty hit .303/.390/.574 against lefties this year. Against righties, he hit 265/.314/.435. Also, although he hit just .202 when no one was on base, he hit .348 with runners on base, and .335 with runners in scoring position.

2008 Projection: LF/DH at New Britain

Potential: big league bat, could DH

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#9 – Joe Benson – OF– 19

2007 Team: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 2nd round pick in 2006 out of Joliet (IL) High School

For Joe Benson, the transition to his first full season months were a struggle. Although his batting average was in the .220s much of the season, you could see the talent was there. As the season went on, his numbers got better. And, since late August, he has been hitting non-stop, including throughout the Snappers' run in the playoffs. He ended the season with a very respectable .255/.347/.368 line with 18 doubles, eight triples and five RBI. He had 18 stolen bases, although he was caught 16 times. In 432 at bats, he struck out 124 times, or once every 3.5 at bats. As a top of the order hitter, that number will need to improve. But from all reports, Benson projects to being a five-tool player.   

2008 Projection: Should spend the year at Ft. Myers

Potential: a 20/20 type of hitter, with a gold glove

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

#8 – Alex Burnett – RHP – 20

2007 Team: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 12th round pick in 2005 from Huntington Beach, CA

There are several players on the Beloit roster that are young for the Midwest League, and Alex Burnett is one of them. As the Snappers entered the playoffs, Burnett was deemed the team's Ace pitcher and was named the Game 1 starter. All indications say that he is a bulldog on the mound. In 27 starts for the Snappers, he went 9-8 with a 3.02 ERA. In 155 innings, he gave up 140 hits, walked 38 and struck out 117. As you would like to see from such a young pitcher in the lower levels of the minors, Burnett improved his numbers in the second half, dropping his ERA by over a run per nine innings.  

2008 Projection: starter at Ft. Myers

Potential: potential to be a #3 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2010

#7 – Danny Valencia – 3B – 22

2007 Team: Beloit Snappers, Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 19th round pick in 2006 out of Miami

I'm still just shocked to think that a player of Valencia's caliber, coming out of a high-profile college like Miami, was available to the Twins in the 19th round. Valencia started the season playing 3B for Beloit. He made the Midwest League All-star team. For the Snappers, he hit .302/.374/.500 with 15 doubles and 11 homers in just 242 at bats. He was then moved up to Ft. Myers where he hit .291/.332/.422 with eight doubles, two triples and six home runs in 230 at bats. After hitting .258 in June and .284 in July, he hit .308 in August. With other 3B at higher levels struggling, Valencia has put himself in the "3B of the Future" discussion.     

2008 Projection: Might start back in FM, should move up to New Britain

Potential: big league corner infielder with power

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#6 – Chris Parmelee – OF/1B – 19

2007 Team: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2006 out of Chino Hills (CA) High School

The Twins top draft pick in '06 was pushed to the Midwest League. And for a 19 year old, he struggled but was not completely overwhelmed. Although he hit just .239, he had an on-base percentage of .313. He also showed good power. He hit 23 doubles, five triples and 15 home runs. In 447 at bats, he struck out 137 times, or once every 3.26 at bats. Clearly putting the ball in play is something that he will need to improve on. But when he did put the ball in play, he actually hit well. When it comes to ceiling, Parmele probably has the highest ceiling among hitters in the Twins system, specifically for power.

2008 Projection: playing RF in Ft. Myers

Potential: middle of the lineup run producer

Could be in Minnesota in: 2010

#5 – Jeff Manship – RHP – 22

2007 Team: Beloit Snappers, Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 14th round pick in 2006 out of Notre Dame University

Getting Manship in the 14th round of last year's draft was a steal for the Twins. Manship is a very advanced pitcher from the college ranks. He started the season with Beloit. As he went 7-1 with a 1.51 ERA in 13 starts for the Snappers, Twins fans were wondering how long the Twins would wait to promote him to Ft. Myers. Shortly after the All-Star break, Manship moved up to the Miracle where he went 8-5 with a 3.15 ERA. Combined, he had 34 walks and 136 strikeouts in 149 innings. It is possible that Manship could start next year in Ft. Myers again. However, it is also very possible that he could end the season up with Rochester.

2008 Projection: Should start season in New Britain

Potential: #2 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#4 – Brian Duensing – LHP – 24

2007 Teams: New Britain Rockcats, Rochester Red Wings

Acquired: Twins 3rd round draft pick in 2005 out U of Nebraska

Duensing advanced from Beloit to Ft. Myers to New Britain last season. He began the 2007 season back with the Rockcats where he went 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA in nine starts. He quickly moved up to Rochester where he made 19 starts. For the Red Wings, he went 11-5 with a 3.24 ERA. In 116.2 innings, he walked 30 and struck out 86. Although the numbers are incredible, the strikeout numbers are not dominant. However, I have heard reports suggesting that Duensing has great stuff and could still get better with time. His progression is great news for the Twins. He has put himself on the radar screen enough that he will be going to the Arizona Fall League. The Twins have several options for the back end of their starting rotation in 2008 and I think that Duensing has put his name into that conversation as well.

2008 Projection: starting in Rochester, probably trip to Minnesota

Potential: good #3 pitcher

Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#3 – Trevor Plouffe – SS – 21

2007 Teams: New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2004 out of Crespi Carmelite H.S. (CA)

I thought the best thing for Trevor Plouffe would have been a trip back to Ft. Myers for at least half of the season, but he was instead pushed to AA New Britain where he was very young for the level of competition. Plouffe showed the he was ready for that test. In previous seasons, he got off to horrific starts and then did better in the second half. This year, he started by hitting .310 in April. May didn't go so well, but he hit .325 in June and .310 in July. The number that stands out most in Plouffe's 2007 season, for me, was 37 doubles. That is an important number in my mind. He also added two triples and nine home runs. Still needs to cut back on the number of errors, but 2007 was definitely a huge step forward for Plouffe. In fact, he was another guy considered for the top spot on this list.

2008 Projection: earned promotion to Rochester

Potential: good glove, solid bat SS

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#2 – Anthony Swarzak – RHP – 22

2007 Teams: New Britain Rockcats, Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired
: Twins 2nd round pick in 2004 out of Ft. Lauderdale, FL

What a year it was for Swarzak! He came into the season as one of the top Twins prospects. He started at New Britain and in the cold he did not pitch well at all. And then came the 50 game suspension for a 'drug of abuse.' That certainly derailed his season. When the suspension was over, he went to Ft. Myers where he made three starts before moving back up to New Britain. Back in AA, Swarzak proved himself to still be one of the top Twins pitching prospects and he was definitely under consideration for #1 on this list. On the season at New Britain, he went 5-4 with a 3.23 ERA. In 86.1 innings, he gave up 78 hits, walked 23 and struck out 76. After the All-Star break, he made 10 starts and went 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA. In 63 innings, he gave up 52 hits, walked 13 and struck out 57. The lost time and great second half earned him a trip to the Arizona Fall League.

2008 Projection: May start the season at New Britain, but should be in Rochester soon
Potential
: #2-type starter
Could be in Minnesota in
: 2009

#1 – Tyler Robertson – LHP – 19

2007 Team: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 3rd round pick in 2006 from Citrus Heights, CA

With Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey and Alexi Casilla no longer prospect-eligible, I have been going back and forth on who the new number one Twins prospect should be. There were several options, although unlike in previous lists, there was not an obvious choice for #1. So, I went back to what the definition of prospect is, and to me, being a prospect is all about ceiling and how good a guy can become. When it comes to potential, Robertson may have the highest ceiling of anyone in the organization. He started the year in Extended Spring Training, but soon after the start of the season, he was promoted to Beloit. In 18 games (16 starts), he went 9-5 with a 2.29 ERA. In 102.1 innings, he walked 33 and struck out 123. He's got a very good fastball, a great slider and a good curveball. And, he is just 19 years old. Assuming health, and a 19 year old with a slider for an out pitch is a bit alarming, he could be a top of the rotation starter.

2008 Projection: starter at Ft. Myers

Potential: potential ace

Could be in Minnesota in: 2010


 Any thoughts or arguments? Please e-mail me or Comment below!!