Thursday, September 15, 2005

TWINS THOUGHTS

BASEBALL THOUGHTS

FM REDHAWKS UPDATE  

 

FRANCISCO'S FIRST START

Good morning everyone! A couple of quick notes before we get into today's blog entry:

• Gotta say "Congratulations to Britney Spears on the birth of a baby boy!"

• Second - Do you think that the Twins have been Lucky, Unlucky, or about where they should be this year? Also, how have the hitters done according to what would have been expected? For a very interesting, detailed article on the Twins "luck", check out Stick and Ball Guy today!

• Also, Pat Neshek has posted another Q&A, this one is with the incredibly underrated OF Doug Deeds. Seriously, name the New Britain OFs, or name any Twins OF prospects. The first two names to come up will be Denard Span and Alex Romero, and deservedly so. But Deeds put together a very solid, very consistent season at AA. I would like to see these three be the starting outfield in Rochester in 2006.

 

Well, if you have been frequenting this site at all in the past year, you had to come here today knowing that I had to write about Francisco Liriano. Can you even imagine how disappointed I was when I found out that his first big league start would not be televised? That is something that I would have taken a half-day vacation time from work just to see. But no, I was left to "watching" the game online.

 

Then I was going through my daily look at all of the other Twins blogs, and when I got to Will Young's Twins blog, I read that he would be able to watch the game via mlb.tv for a little while before he had to head to work. Immediately, I e-mailed him and asked if he would be able to help me out with some Analysis of a Phenom data. I asked him if he would be able to get the pitch type, the velocity, and whether it was a ball or a strike, and ten what the result of the at bat was. I really didn't think that he would be able to, just because I didn't think that he could get the miles per hour. And, in fact, that was the case. However, he still sent me the following e-mail last night, which I think is great. I will post his e-mail and then post some of my own thoughts on his start. So, let's get to it!

 

WILL YOUNG IS THE MAN!

But first, I want to again encourage everyone to check out Will's site, and be sure to bookmark it!

Seth,

I was only able to watch the first three innings before leaving for work
today (stupid rain delay).  Anyway here are the pitches:

First Batter (Polanco):
fastball - low
fastball - high/outside
fastball - strike looking (94 mph)
fastball - F8

Second Batter (Inge):
slider - inside
fastball - inside
changeup - swinging strike
fastball - F8

Third Batter (Shelton):
fastball - strike looking
changeup - outside
slider - strike looking
slider - strike swinging

2nd Inning
First Batter (Ordonez):
slider - strike looking
fastball - outside
slider - strike looking
fastball - high
changeup - swinging strikeout

Second Batter (Monroe):
fastball - outside
slider - strike swinging
fastball = outside (95 mph)
changeup - outside
fastball - fouled (96 mph)
changeup - swinging strikeout

Third Batter (Pena)
slider - strike swinging
slider - strike looking
fastball - foul
fastball - high/outside
changeup - swinging strikeout

3rd Inning
First Batter (Infante):
fastball - high
changeup - strike swinging
fastball - foul
changeup - foul (Morneau badly misplayed popup)
slider - F5

Second Batter (Wilson):
fastball - high
fastball - outside
fastball - outside
fastball - high, BB

Third Batter (Granderson):
fastball - strike looking
fastball - HR to LF

Fourth Batter (Polanco):
fastball - strike looking
changeup - high
slider - strike swinging
fastball - F8

Fifth Batter (Inge):
fastball - high
changeup - outside
slider - strike swinging
changeup - strike swinging
changeup - swinging strikeout

The biggest observation I had was that he was able to consistently get his slider in under the hands of right-handed batters for swinging strikes.  Also, after the brief rain delay, the wind was really blowing strongly out towards leftfield.  It directly affected three plays.

First, Justin Morneau horribly misplayed a foul popup from Omar Infante as he circled the wrong way when the wind got a hold of it. 

Second, on the next pitch Infante popped out to Juan Castro but the wind also wreaked havoc causing him to lunge and catch it at the last minute.

Finally, Curtis Granderson's homerun looked like a fairly harmless fly ball to leftfield that just kept sailing well over the wall.  The Tigers radio announcers were definitely caught by surprise as the ball just took off and went much farther than it looked.

The 3 mph data were the only three pitches that the Tigers radio crew mentioned.

SETH'S THOUGHTS

 

First, have I thanked Will yet, and encouraged you to frequent Will's Twins site?

 

Second, how impressive was Liriano? He got the first seven batters he faced out. He struck out the Tigers #3, #4, #5 and #6 hitters consecutively. I was able to listen to some of the innings, and it sounded like Liriano was using, and effective with, all three of his pitches. On no fewer than two occasions, I heard John Gordon comparing his changeup to Johan Santana's. I'm never sure of what to take of some of Mr. Hyperbole's comments though. He got a couple of pop-ups as well as some weak ground balls. Yes, it is just one start, and yes, it was against the Tigers, but it is certainly enough that the Twins should feel confident in his ability to start in the big leagues next season.

 

After the second inning, the game was delayed due to rain. There was about a 25 minute delay of the game followed by the Twins turn at bat. As that was going on, I couldn't help but wonder if Liriano would stay in the game. As much as I wanted him to continue such dominance, I wondered if it was good for a young pitcher to have that long of a delay and return to the mound. My personal opinion is that they should have taken him out. But Gardy chose to keep him in (and I'm not saying that was a bad decision either). However, that was the one inning he particularly struggled. The four-pitch walk to Vance Wilson (yes, Vance Wilson) is what really hurt. I was surprised to see that Mauer called four straight fastballs in that at bat. He then threw two more to Curtis Granderson, the second going for the home run. It seemed like once he got warm again, he started using his other pitches again and was able to get easy outs again.

 

Now, we just have the pitches from the first three innings, but here is what we were able to determine. Of course, hopefully on his next start, I will be able to analyze a full game.

1st inning  - 12 pitches (7 fastball, 3 sliders, 2 changeups)

2nd inning - 16 pitches (7 fastball, 5 sliders, 4 changeups)

3rd inning - 20 pitches (11 fastball, 3 sliders, 6 changeups)

Total - 48 pitches (25 fastball, 11 sliders, 12 changeups)

 

Fastballs - 11 strikes, 14 balls (44% strikes)

Sliders - 10 strikes, 1 ball (91% strikes)

Changeups - 8 strikes, 4 balls (67% strikes)

Total - 29 strikes, 19 balls (60.4% strikes)

I'm not sure if we can really make any bold statements from just three innings of work when he went five innings. I mean, when we saw Felix Hernandez pitch against the Twins, he started pitching completely differently after the fifth inning than he had in the first five. So, it is not real likely that this shows us much. Just a couple of things though:

• We did hear from Terry Ryan and others that he doesn't always spot his fastball well. Well, that is certainly proving true. 44% strikes on fastballs is not good. It is really amazing that he walked just one batter with an inability to throw strikes with the fastball. Ask Bert Blyleven, everything feeds off the fastball! This is clearly something that he will need to improve. It seems like he is missing up and away. To me, unlike Travis Bowyer, I think that Liriano can get away with pitching up in the strike zone, because of his other pitches. As Bowyer develops a second pitch, his fastball will seem faster to hitters.

• His slider is incredible. Not only is it sharp and thrown at 86-89 mph, but he seems able to locate it. I mean, 10 of 11 thrown for strikes is great. Four of the ten strikes were looking. Five of the other six were not even touched.

• 67% strikes on changeups is really good. I have seen the fluidity of his motion on that pitch on the change, and it can not be differentiated from his fastball. If he is able to keep that pitch down, he will be untouchable.

• Liriano ended up only throwing 58 pitches. However, with all the warming up he did, and the earlier delay, I think that was enough.

So, here is his overall game statistics from yesterday:

                  5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Here is his major league line so far:

                  7 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 11 K

That would be a great start! Granted, for the Twins, it may not result in a win, and maybe even a loss, but I think that the Twins would be thrilled to get starts like that from their fifth starter. It will be fun to see how Liriano does the rest of the season as he should get three more starts. It will be interesting to see how he pitches in the sixth and seventh innings. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts the third time through the order. Clearly, Liriano has the 'stuff' to start in the big leagues right now. It will just be interesting to see how he adjusts, or how he deals with adversity. It will also be interesting to see how Gardy uses him.    

 

Did anyone out there happen to watch Liriano's start yesterday? If so, what were your thoughts? What do you think of his chances to be a big league star? I would love to hear your thoughts. Please e-mail me. 

 

TWINS THOUGHTS

• Above, you see where Will noted how the wind affected a pop-up that Justin Morneau was charged an error on. I heard that play on the radio and both John Gordon and Dan Gladden were very hard on Justin Morneau for it. It was very interesting to read this in the Yahoo Game Notes, "Minnesota 2B Luis Rivas was benched after the third for not chasing a foul ball down the right-field line that 1B Justin Morneau didn't catch. Morneau was charged with an error."

• Rivas had a single in his first at bat. He was replaced by Luis Rodriguez. Rodriguez went 2-2 with an RBI that scored the Twins first run. I am utterly impressed with L-Rod. Whenever he plays every day, he does well. He continues to hit, play hard, and overall, just play well. In August, when he was used primarily as a pinch runner and late inning defensive replacement, he struggled. I would like to see him continue to play, preferably at 2B ahead of Nick Punto. 

• Is it possible that Gardy read my Open Letter the other day? In it, I suggested that he get Jacque Jones some playing time in centerfield. Jacque's numbers are average, or almost average, for a centerfielder, whereas they are well below average for a major league right fielder. Also, with his arm as erratic as it is, you hate to have him in right field, where you want your strongest arm. I think that playing Jacque in center may increase his trade value in the offseason as well.

• Curtis Granderson hit the two-run homer off of Liriano in the third inning. He may not be known to many, but to me, he is one of the better prospects in baseball. He has major speed and could develop some power (he has five homers in a short time with the Tigers so far). In this game, he was 3-3. I just think that he could be very good. He has gone 7-13 in his past four games.

• Michael Cuddyer had an RBI single in the top of the eighth that actually tied the game at two. The hit gave him a seven game hitting streak. In that time, he is 8-29 (.276).

• Joe Mauer is 7-15 (.467) in his last four games.

• Others are not quite so impressive. Nick Punto is 3-18 (.167) over his last seven games. Jason Bartlett is 4-27 (.148) in his last nine game to drop his average from .275 to .257. Jacque Jones is 2-15 (.133) in the last four games.

• The Twins have another off day today before starting a home series on Friday night against the White Sox. The Twins will pitch Scott Baker, Johan Santana and Kyle Lohse against the Sox. The White Sox will counter with Jon Garland, Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras.                      
   

BASEBALL THOUGHTS

• Congratulations to Braves OF Andruw Jones who last night hit his 50th home run of the year. It was also his 300th career home run. Not bad for a guy who is still somehow just 28 years old. If you were watching the Braves/Phillies game last night and stuck through to the end, you saw his mammoth shot way beyond the left field wall. If he doesn't win the NL MVP this year, it will be a travesty. With Chipper Jones missing so much time, and much of the pitching staff out, and playing alongside lots of rookies, Andruw Jones absolutely led the Braves to the NL East title this year. Without Andruw, the Braves would be well out of first place.
   

•  Speaking of baseball games on ESPN, the sports entertainment network and MLB announced yesterday that they have agreed to an eight year, $2.638 billion contract. Obviously ESPN will make more than that in advertising or they wouldn't do the deal. But I want to look at it from a bigger picture.
  
  If you divide $2.368 billion into eight years, that is an average of $296 million a year. Divide that between 30 big league teams and you get $9.87 million per team, per year.
  
  Remember that Fox signed a $2.5 billion deal with baseball for exclusive rights to the playoffs, World Series and All-Star game that lasts through next year. That averages out to $417 million per year. Divided by 30 teams, you get about $13.9 million per team, per year.
  
  ESPN Radio has a six year deal worth about $11 million a year. ESPN Internet's deal with MLB averages about $30 million per year. And XM's 11 year deal with MLB will average out to $60 million a year. Combined, those three entities contribute about $101 million to the league each year. That is about $3.7 million per team, per year.
  
  So, let's take all of these deals together, and how much should be divvied to each Major League team? That is approximately $27.5 million per team, per season. Now I realize, or assume that the MLB offices themselves keep a big chunk of that money. If it is even 50%, that is almost $14 million that all teams should receive to spend on players. Of course, it still doesn't account for the huge discrepancy in local media earnings for the Twins compared to the Yankees, but that is $14 million that they should have available.
   

• Ronnie Belliard hit a big three-run homer off of Barry Zito in the 7th inning to give the Indians a 6-3 lead. Cleveland went on to win 6-4 and take a 3 1/2 game lead over Oakland in the Wild Card race. Nick Swisher had hit a three-run homer for the A's to tie the game at 3 in the top of  the 6th. Jake Westbrook picked up his 15th win and Bob Wickman recorded Save #22. Unfortunately, the Yankees got a 6-5 win over Tampa Bay to remain just one game behind the Indians.