Help Coming?
We hear so often that the
Twins minor league system is bad, that there are not players ready to come up
to the big leagues and contribute to the team. I think most Twins fans
understand that the Twins have done a lot in the last two or three years to
really improve the overall value and talent level of the minor league system.
However, most of that high-end talent is in High-A Ft. Myers or lower levels.
Names like Oswaldo Arcia,
Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano will pop up in Top
Prospect lists very soon. But the Twins also have some very good talent in the
upper levels as well.
I am often asked if there
are any players in the Twins minor league system that can come up and
contribute in 2012. The answer is absolutely Yes, but
there are several angles to answering that question.
ALREADY THERE
In 2010, the Twins came
into the season with a very veteran lineup. Not one rookie was in the everyday
lineup to start the season. Alex Burnett was a surprise in the Opening Day
bullpen despite zero innings pitched above Double-A. Danny Valencia came up in
June and became a regular in July. Because he was the only rookie playing,
there was little pressure on him and he went out and contributed mightily for
the Twins down the stretch. In 2011, because of all of the injuries, Valencia
has frequently been joined in the starting lineup for three or four players
with less than a year of big league service time. That puts a lot of pressure
on everyone in the lineup to do more than what they may be ready for. That isn’t
good for the team and we have seen those struggles. Consider the current Twins
roster. Here are the players with less than two years of big league service
time: Valencia, Burnett, Drew Butera, Ben Revere,
Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Rene Tosoni,
Anthony Swarzak and now Lester Oliveros.
We have seen already that Valencia can put up some numbers, including some
power. We have seen the value of Ben Revere’s speed on the base paths and in
the field. Trevor Plouffe has struggled with the
glove, but he leads the organization in home runs this season. Luke Hughes was
the story of spring training and has contributed a couple of home runs while
playing 1B and 2B. Tosoni has shown patience at the
plate and good power potential. Swarzak has been very
important as the Twins long reliever and spot starter. Butera’s
defense has proven to be as good as advertised. Burnett has shown signs of how
good he can be out of the Twins bullpen. And, at this point, we don’t know
anything about Lester Oliveros, other than that he
throws hard, walks and strikes out a lot and is still just 23 years old. Again,
that is a lot of players expected to contribute despite such little time. They
have certainly struggled at times this year. However, most of these players
have also shown that they can contribute to the Twins over the coming years.
Valencia, Plouffe, Swarzak
and Tosoni are guys who have been Top 10 Twins
prospects and have the talent to contribute for years to come.
RETREADS AT ROCHESTER
The Twins went out of
their way to appease the Rochester masses and brought in a ton of minor league
veterans. After losing 95 games in 2010, the Twins wanted to give Rochester a
more competitive team. It didn’t work. The Red Wings are currently 48-82 this season.
Sure, guys like Phil Dumatrait and Chuck James have
pitched for the Twins, but those veterans were not really brought in to help
the Twins. They were brought in to help the Red Wings. Guys like Jeff Bailey
and Chase Lambin really struggled early in the
season. However, the real purpose in bringing in the veterans was so that the
real prospects who were not ready for AAA were able to
stay in New Britain and develop appropriately. The best players of the Red
Wings were the prospects. Unfortunately for the Red Wings, all those injuries
meant that the Red Wings carousel was continuous again throughout the season.
The Twins again called to Rochester frequently, taking the pitchers and top
hitters from the Red Wings. Plouffe was one of the
International League’s best hitters. Revere, Hughes, and Tosoni
were also all in the opening day lineup for the Red Wings.
There are prospects in
Rochester, but at this point, there are question marks with them.
·
Scott Diamond – His best start of the
season may have been his Major League debut when he went 6.1 innings and gave
up three runs. It has been a real struggle for the lefty with the Red Wings.
The 25-year-old has gone 4-14 with a 5.88 ERA. It will be very interesting to
see how he responds with the team in 2012 because coming into the season, he had never posted an ERA above 3.52 at any stop
along his trek up the Braves minor league system. That includes a 3.30 ERA in
ten 2010 starts with Gwinnett, Atlanta’s AAA affiliate in the International
League.
·
Kyle Gibson – He came into the
season as the Twins top prospect and rightfully so. The Twins top pick in 2009
made his minor league debut in 2010 and advanced from Ft. Myers to Rochester.
He began the 2011 season with the Red Wings and went 3-3 with a 3.60 ERA and a
1.09 WHIP in the season’s first two months. He walked very few, got a ton of
ground balls and even struck out a batter an inning. He was definitely on pace
to debut with the Twins in 2011. Unfortunately, in his final eight starts, he
went 0-5 with a 6.47 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP. Clearly something wasn’t right, and
he is currently in Florida rehabbing an elbow injury, hoping to avoid Tommy
John surgery that would cost him his 2012 season. However, this does not make
him a lesser prospect. It will just be 2013 before he is able to contribute to
the Twins.
·
Carlos Gutierrez – The Twins second
first-round pick in 2008 has been a starting pitcher to start each of his
previous seasons in the minors. This season he finally went full-time into the
bullpen. He has had his ups and downs with the Red Wings. His overall numbers
are not impressive. He is 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He almost made
the Twins roster out of spring training. Control continues to be his problem at
times. However, he also missed most of July with an arm injury and has
struggled since his return. But again, in terms of ‘stuff,’ Gutierrez
definitely has it. He throws hard and gets a lot of ground balls due to his
sinker. He will play a role with the Twins at some point in 2012.
·
Liam Hendriks – The Twins pushed Hendriks to AA New Britain to start the 2011 season and he
pitched great. The Australian went 8-2 with a 2.70 ERA. Because of the need for
pitching in Rochester, he was promoted after pitching in the Futures Game and
in the Eastern League All-Star Game. He began his AAA tenure with three very
good starts before two clunkers. His last two starts have again been solid. The
22-year-old has walked 21 and struck out 100 batters in 125.1 innings this year
overall. Hendriks needs to be added to the 40 man
roster following the season, so it is possible that he could get a September
call-up.
·
Kyle Waldrop – Another reliever who
impressed in Spring Training (For the second straight year), Waldrop struggled
in the first half this season. However, since the All-Star break, he has been
wonderful. His big sinker ball has been in full effect for the last month and
he should be given a September opportunity. If so, he will be another important
possibility in the Twins bullpen in 2012.
PLAYOFFS FOR PROSPECTS
The New Britain Rock Cats
are 64-64 this season, but they remain in contention for a spot in the Eastern
League playoffs. Since the Twins and Red Wings (and Ft. Myers Miracle) are out
of contention for the playoffs, there are some terrific prospects who are staying with the Rock Cats in an attempt to make the
playoffs. Many believe that being on a winning team, and playing for the team,
is an important part of the development process. I would say that it can’t
hurt. But the Rock Cats also have several players who could contribute to the
Twins in 2012. A couple could be in contention for an opening day spot while
each of them could be seen at some point in the 2012 season. Here is a look at
the top prospects:
·
Joe Benson – The Twins Minor League
Hitter of 2010, Benson has been a much better all-around player in 2011. He is
hitting .284/.379.499 with 26 doubles, three triples and 14 home runs. He also
has 13 stolen bases. All that, despite missing five weeks after knee surgery.
Benson is an incredible athlete with tremendous power who is also probably the
second fastest player in the organization after Ben Revere. Benson is also a
terrific outfielder with great range and a rocket for an arm. His biggest area
for needed improvement was his strikeout rate. In 2010, he struck out every 3.5
plate appearances. This year, that number is about four. Depending upon which
outfielders the Twins bring back next year, Benson could play a very big role
for the Twins starting in 2012.
·
Chris Parmelee – Benson was the team’s
second round pick in 2006. Parmelee was the team’s
first round pick, and he backed up a very good 2010 with an even stronger 2011.
The left-handed hitting first baseman is hitting .291.371/.451 with 27 doubles,
five triples and 13 home runs. He does struggle against left-handed pitching.
He has more power potential. It isn’t fair to expect him to be Justin Morneau offensively or defensively, but he can be a very
solid big leaguer at 1B, maybe in the Lyle Overbay mold.
He has a terrific approach at the plate, and if the Twins have a need at 1B in
2012, Parmelee will be ready to step in. He could
also DH against right-handed pitching. He also can play a little bit of right
field if needed.
·
Brian Dozier – I would argue that no
Twins minor leaguer has made a stronger impression in 2011 than Brian Dozier.
The Twins surprised a lot of people when they invited Dozier to big league camp
this spring. But he has come through with a tremendous season. It began in Ft.
Myers and hit .322/.423/.472 in 49 games. In 64 games with the Rock Cats, he
has hit .317/.384/.500. Overall, he has 30 doubles, 11 triples and seven home
runs. He also has 24 stolen bases. As a top of the order hitter, he has 50 walks
and 60 strikeouts. He profiles as a good #2 hitter. Twins minor league pitchers
love when Dozier is playing shortstop behind them. With the struggles of
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the 24 year old Dozier should go
to spring training with a legitimate opportunity to be the Twins starting
shortstop.
·
Yangervis Solarte – Solarte
broke out in 2010 when he hit at Ft. Myers and got an opportunity with New
Britain, but he got hurt and missed a couple of months. He began this season
with the Rock Cats and he has hit the entire time. He hit .300 or higher in
April, May, June and July. Overall, he has hit .320/.361/.441 with 30 doubles,
three triples and four home runs. He doesn’t walk a lot, but he also strikes
out only about once every 13 plate appearances. The only question with Solarte is if there is a position that he can play
adequately. That will be the thing that will determine how big his future role
with the Twins will be. The 24 year old has played primarily at second base and
can also play both corner outfield positions, but not really well.
·
Deolis Guerra – This may be a surprise name to many, especially if you
look at his overall numbers in 2011, but Guerra has been terrific. Overall, he
is 7-7 with a 5.83 ERA on the season. He began the year with ten starts. He
went 3-5 with a 9.00 ERA. In 43 innings, he gave up 66 hits, walked 15 and
struck out 30. Opponents hit .357. Then he was moved to the bullpen, and he has
been great since. In 24 relief appearances,e
he is 4-2 with a 2.80 ERA. In 45 innings, he has given up 33 hits, walked 11
and struck out 55. Opponents have hit just .198 against him. The still-just-22
year old right-hander has a good fastball and a great changeup. It’s remarkable
how the role change has improved his control, but his strikeout rate is very
improved. He still has an option year in 2012, so hopefully he continues to
make improvements and plays a role with the Twins as early as mid-2012.
·
David Bromberg – Twins fans should not
forget Bromberg. He was an easy choice to add to the 40-man roster after last
season. He has consistently moved up the Twins farm system, three times leading
his league in strikeouts. He began this season in New Britain, but in late
April, he was hit in the forearm by a line drive and he missed three months of
the season. He returned recently, but probably too quickly. It’s important to
note that his injury was not to his elbow or shoulder, it was a fluke injury.
In other words, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t regain his form
which means he will compete for a job with the Twins in 2012.
There are others on that
Rock Cats roster who could find themselves with the Twins in time. Evan Bigley is an outfielder in the Chad Allen mode. Danny
Lehmann is the most respected catcher by pitchers in the Twins minor leagues.
His defense is on par with Drew Butera’s, with probably
a little better offense. Andrew Albers has had a tremendous season with the
Miracle and the Rock Cats. The lefty could continue to work his way up. Dakota
Watts and Bruce Pugh are two pitchers who can throw into the upper-90s and are
potential bullpen arms. Brett Jacobson has had an up and down season, but he
has a chance. Bobby Lanigan has struggled some as a
starter, but he profiles well as a future reliever because of a good fastball
and a very good slider. Steve Hirschfeld was my
choice for Twins minor league pitcher of the month in April and May. Finally,
Logan Darnell started the season at Beloit and is now with the Rock Cats.
ONE MORE
Although it is a rarity
for a player to jump from Ft. Myers to the big leagues in one season, I would
encourage people to keep an eye on Oswaldo Arcia. The 20-year-old outfielder was the Appalachian
League Player of the Year last year for Elizabethton. He spent a month at
Beloit this year, posting an OPS over 1.000. He then
missed six weeks due to arthroscopic elbow surgery. Instead of going back to
Beloit, Arcia went to Ft. Myers where he has
continued to hit well. I believe his bat is legit. I posted on Twitter a couple
of days ago that I think Arcia may be the best
hitting prospect that the Twins have had since Jason Kubel
in 2005. He seems to be a natural hitter. It might be a little aggressive to
consider Arcia as a possibility for the Twins in
2012, but if there is a hitting prospect for Twins fans to really get excited
about, it is Arcia.
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·
Seth hosted Twins
Minor League Weekly last night.
·
Nick wrote of some of the Twins Mystery
Injuries.
If you like,
please feel free to
comment.