Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Twins Thoughts

Twins Minor League Update

Fun with Numbers

Good morning! This morning is when my selection for the Twins Face of the Franchise will be posted over at ESPN.com's Sports Nation. Be sure to check out who I picked and then come back here and discuss it. If you are coming to the site through the link at ESPN.com, please e-mail me and say hi. Today, I have thoughts on the Twins loss to the Mariners and all the minor league updates, but as a Math minor, I thought it would be cool to start with some Fun with Numbers. As always, please feel free to e-mail me or leave comments below. Let's start with a few other notes: 

 

Quick Notes

FUN WITH NUMBERS

How many times and ways have I used the term "Small Sample Size." The phrase is quite popular among fans of baseball stats. Small sample size is the reason why I love the 162 game schedule and realize that the better team doesn't always win a short playoff series. When Ron Gardenhire chooses to play a 'role' player because he has gone 2-4 against a given pitcher rather than a regular who is 1-6 against the same pitcher, you have to use the term "small sample size."

Secondly, you hear the word "Splits" a lot. Simply put, those are numbers such as how well a hitter hits against lefties or righties, at home or on the road, and such. Situational Stats are those like how well a guy hits with runners in scoring position or with a 3-1 count. Today, I am going to discuss some of these things using some Twins statistics (through Monday's games). Let's get started:

Example 1: So far this season, Justin Morneau has just a .706 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Against righties, his OPS is .985. So, should Gardy platoon with Morneau at 1B? Of course not. Why? Well, first, even if he is struggling, he is still the reigning MVP and has the potential to hit a homer any time. But it was just 2006 when Morneau hit .904 against lefties (and .951 against righties). In other words, he can do it, just needs to keep getting the at bats.

Example 2: Fans like to look at Joe Mauer's low RBI total and assume that he isn't coming through. Consider the following:

Example 3: Who do you want to bat with a runner on 3rd base and less than two outs??? How about Jason Kubel? You may be surprised, but he is hitting .438/.478/.875 in that situation (7-16 with a double, two homers and 20 RBI.)

Example 4: We have learned that Tom Kelly would bench Dan Gladden during game days because he said Gladden couldn't hit during the day, something the Dazzle Man obviously disagrees with. Maybe Ron Gardenhire should consider the same thing with Torii Hunter. This year, his OPS in Night games is a robust .971. However, in Day Games, it is just .673. Maybe Jason Tyner can play afternoon games for Hunter. When he plays CF, he has gone 9-24 (.375/.423/.458).

Example 5: Speaking of Torii Hunter, he has been batting third of late. However, in his brief time hitting in that spot, he is hitting just .212/.235/.212. That's why it is important to fact or in sample size. To this point, he has just 33 at bats batting third. When he has batted fourth, he is hitting .462/.517/.654, but again, that is in just 26 at bats. The reality is that over time, these numbers should even out.

Example 6: Michael Cuddyer's extreme splits:

Example 7: Alexi Casilla has some interesting splits so far where the term "small sample size" is more than a little appropriate. We were told that he was a little better hitter from the right side of the plate. So far this year with the Twins, he is 14-63 (.222/.290/.238) batting right handed. As a lefty, he is 12-48 (.250/.265/.271). Overall, his OPS's are .536 (vs LHP) and .528 (vs RHP). But what is interesting to me is that, as a right-handed hitter, he must be more aggressive. He has just one walk and three strikeouts over 48 at bats. As a left-handed hitter, he has six walks and 14 strikeouts over 63 at bats. Does this mean anything at this point? Probably not. Just as it probably means nothing yet that Casilla's home OPS is just .432 and it is .652 on the road. 

Example 8: Should Joe Mauer be more aggressive at the plate? I know I'm not the only one who wishes he would be more aggressive with first pitches. Did you know that when he puts the ball in play on the first pitch, he is hitting .440/.407/.480. But if he is able to work the count to 2-0, he is hitting .625/.625/.875. Or, on 3-1 pitches, he is hitting .688/.865/1.188. That's a nice 2.052 OPS. 

Example 9: Pinch Hitting options? Mike Redmond is hitting .750/.600/1.00 with the bases loaded. You guessed it, 3-4 with a double and seven RBI. When he has come up with a runner on 3rd base and less than two outs, he has hit .667/.625/.667. At least that covers 15 at bats. As a pinch hitter, Jason Tyner has gone 5-10.

Example 10: If you can't say something nice... I tried and tried to find a split or stat that showed Rondell White's 2007 season in a positive light. Really... I tried.

MINOR LEAGUE NUMBERS

I thought I would check out just a few minor league splits and see how some of the Twins farmhands look when looking a little deeper:

Any thoughts? Any other numbers/splits that you have found interesting? Please e-mail me or leave Comments below.

Twins and their Minor League Updates

Here are the game reports of the Twins and their minor league affiliates. Before you get started, check out Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet. Although there is just one Twins prospect in the Top 20, three others get mentioned in the Helium Watch. Check out who!

Tuesday SethSpeaks Player of the Day – Chris Parmelee, Beloit Snappers
Tuesday SethSpeaks Pitcher of the Day – Anthony Swarzak, New Britain Rockcats

TWINS THOUGHTS
Tuesday - Twins 2, Mariners 7
 

ROCHESTER REPORT
Tuesday - Game 1 - Red Wings 3, Scranton/Wilkes Barre 1
 – Dave Gassner had a solid outing and improved to 5-12. The lefty went 6.1 innings and gave up a run on two hits. He walked two and struck out four. Bobby Korecky got the final two outs to record his 33rd save. Chris Basak went 2-3 against his former team. Denard Span was 2-4 with his 25th stolen base. Chris Heintz hit a two run double. 

Tuesday - Game 2 - Red Wings 0, Scranton/Wilkes Barre 1 – The Red Wings sent their best pitcher to the mound in Game 2, and he didn't disappoint. Because of lack of run support, he also didn't get a Win. Kevin Slowey went all six innings. He gave up one first inning run on three hits.  He walked none and struck out four. Kei Igawa went six shutout innings for the Yankees (Formerly the Red Barons) and struck out seven. Minnesota-born Jim Brower came in and got his 22nd save. Darnell McDonald went 2-3 with his 27th double. Gil Velazquez went 2-3 as well. 


NEW BRITAIN
NEWS
Tuesday - Rockcats 2, New Hampshire 0
– The Rockcats didn't hit much either last night, but a Kyle Geiger two run double in the second was all that Anthony Swarzak needed. Swarzak improved to 5-4 with 8.1 shutout innings. He gave up six hits, walked one and struck out eight. Jose Mijares came in to get the last two outs and his eighth save. Of the five hits that New Britain had, four of them were doubles including Trevor Plouffe's 36th of the year. 


FT MYERS MEMOS

Tuesday - Miracle 2, Dunedin 9 – Two straight rough nights for the Miracle. Kyle Waldrop took the loss in this one. He gave up seven runs (5 earned) on nine hits, two walks and a hit batter. David Shinskie gave up a run on four hits and a walk in just two innings. Robert Delaney then gave up a run in 2.1 innings, striking out four. No Miracle batter had more than one hit. The team had seven hits. Steve Tolleson and Johnny Woodard each doubled.

 

BELOIT BITS
Tuesday - Snappers 7, Kane County 5 – 2006 1st round pick Chris Parmelee had an nice well around game. He went 2-3 with a walk and two doubles (21 on year). He also had two outfield assists, one at 2B and one at the plate. Steve Singleton went 3-5 with his 16th double. Wilson Ramos went 2-5 with two RBI. Eli Tintor was 1-3 with a walk. Alex Burnett improved to 8-7. He gave up four runs on eight hits and two walks in five innings. He struck out five. Matt Williams threw two perfect innings. Jose Lugo gave up a run in 2/3 of an inning. Anthony Slama got the final four outs, two on strikeouts, for his eighth save. 

 

E-TWINS REPORT
Tuesday - E-Twins – No Game Scheduled

 

GCL TWINS REPORT
Tuesday - GCL Twins 7, GCL Red Sox 8  – Ben Revere is definitely starting his career well. He went 2-3 with a walk and his tenth triple. James Beresford went 2-3 with a walk and his seventh stolen base. Danny Rams went 2-4 with his sixth double. Jon Waltenbury went 2-5 with his sixth double. Alexander Soto went 2-5. Winston Marquez gave up two runs on five hits in five innings. He walked three and struck out three. Dominique Rodgers took the loss. He gave up six runs (3 earned) on five hits. He did strike out four. Jose Acosta pitched a scoreless inning.   

That is it for today. As always, if you have any questions, comments, ideas or opinions, please feel free to e-mail me any time or simply leave Comments below. Have a good one!

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