Monday, August
17, 2009
The Gibson
Situation
Tonight, I will be hosting this
week’s episode of the SethSpeaks.net Weekly Minnesota
Twins podcast from 9:00 (central time) until 10:00. At 10:00, just as
the show is likely coming to an end, the deadline passes for 2009 draft picks
to sign with the team that drafted them. The Kyle Gibson situation will be
resolved. Now, a lot of words have been written on this topic in the last few
days as it appears the Twins and Gibson’s side are not very close in the
negotiations.
As you know, Gibson has been on
the podcast twice since the Twins drafted him in June. He was on as recently as
three weeks ago. All along, my assumption was that he would sign. He had the
forearm injury that caused him to fall to the Twins at #22. He was not planning
on throwing for six weeks after the draft regardless. He was given the medical
go-ahead to start his throwing program. Kyle
Gibson is a very good person, with his head on his shoulders. He is also
very smart and knows exactly what he was looking for in this draft; a good
situation and ton of money.
So I thought it would be
appropriate for me to give my opinion on this topic, but not until I attempt to
look at it from both sides’ perspective:
THE TWINS SIDE
The Twins had to select Gibson
with their first round pick. He was generally considered a top 10 type of pick
who would fall because of the forearm injury. The injury was not shoulder or
elbow related, and he would have plenty of time to rest. This was not a long
term risk. The Twins clearly need high-end starting pitching. Every team does,
but the Twins do too. When a pitcher with that upside falls to you, you have to
take him.
Now, for all of the preseason
or midseason draft projections that had Gibson ranked as one of the top five
players in the draft, the reality is that the Twins drafted him with the 22nd
pick, not the fifth pick. The 21st round pick, high school shortstop
Jiovanni Mier, signed
for $1.358 million. With the 23rd pick, the White Sox signed college
outfielder Jared Mitchell to a $1.2
million signing bonus. So from the Twins’ perspective, they have every right to
think that they should be able to sign Gibson for something in between those
two numbers.
The Twins brass has to fully
understand how important signing Kyle
Gibson is. With Joe Mauer’s contract situation looming large; with the team
moving into a new, publicly-financed stadium which will create more revenue
streams for the team; with the 2009 season proving to be arguably the most
disappointing season in team history, the team really needs to sign Gibson. If
they do not, they will, likely unfairly, be considered cheap. It’s not fair
because they would be offering what they are supposed to offer.
I am sure that the Twins would
love to have this situation resolved earlier in the day tomorrow. I have
chatted with three Twins draft picks that have not signed yet. Each has been
told that the Twins will get back to them when the Gibson situation is
resolved. Does this simply mean that the Twins are putting all of their effort
to signing Gibson, even if it misses an opportunity with other draft picks? Or,
does it mean that if Gibson says he’s going back to school, they will have
plenty of money to sign those other guys?
THE GIBSON SIDE
Simply put, Gibson feels like
he should be paid to the projections, not to the slot he was actually drafted
in. If not for the injury, he probably would have been a top ten pick. He
pitched with the injury and still did well, showing bulldog-like toughness.
Gibson has registered for his
senior year at the University of Missouri. He has bought his books. He is ready
to go back to college if an agreement is not reached. This is a risk for Gibson
economically. He could sign today for $1.3 to $1.5 million and have that money
in the bank. If he goes back to school, he will have more of his education to
fall back on, but it’s also possible that something could happen and he may not
be able to make nearly as much in a year when he would re-enter the draft. He
will also have lost the ‘return-to-college’ leverage he currently enjoys.
Gibson is a former teammate of Aaron Crow. Crow was the Nationals’ 1st
round pick in 2008. He went unsigned, having declined a bonus offer rumored to
be around $5 million. After playing in independent league, he was drafted this
June with the 12th overall pick by the Royals. They recently offered
him $3 million to sign. I don’t get it. Does he think another year of
independent league ball will get him much more money? I mean, really, if he is
as good as he apparently thinks he is, he could have signed with the Nationals
last year in July and been playing for a Major League salary by now. Do players
like this even remember the Matt Harrington saga?
I suppose they all think they’ll be like Luke
Hochevar and become the #1 overall pick the
following year.
THE SLOT SYSTEM
Major League Baseball, meaning
The Commissioner’s Office (aka Bud Selig),
have tried to keep signing bonuses to draft picks down by encouraging teams to
stick to the slot numbers. In reality, the slot system is a joke. Many players
sign to slot because they just want to play and start right away. But as we
have seen in the last week or so, many teams are having no problem going well
beyond slot. For instance, the Pittsburgh Pirates gave their 6th
round draft pick, Zach Von Rosenberg,
a RHP from LSU, a $1.2 million signing bonus. The Pirates then gave their 8th
round pick, Colton Cain, $1.125
million. The Red Sox signed their 10th round pick, Brandon Jacobs, to a bonus of $750,000
to keep him from playing college football at Auburn. And the Baltimore Orioles
signed their 22nd round pick to a $990,000 bonus.
So I’ll be honest, I have no
problem with Kyle Gibson asking for
more than slot money. Really, if a 6th rounder can get $1.2 million,
the 22nd overall pick should make much more than that.
Secondly, it’s not like the Twins
have not shown a willingness to go beyond slot to sign a player. Just last
year, they paid BJ Hermsen
$650,000 to sign with the Twins and forego a scholarship to Oregon State. The
slot value for that spot was somewhere between $120,000 and $150,000. In 2006,
the Twins signed Jeff Manship out of Notre Dame, their 14th round
pick, for about $300,000 (only after receiving approval from the commissioner’s
office). Although picks beyond the 10th round are not slotted, they
should stay below $100,000.
HEARD OF MATT
HARRINGTON?
Gibson is a former teammate of Aaron Crow. Crow was the Nationals’ 1st
round pick in 2008. He went unsigned, having declined a bonus offer rumored to
be around $5 million. After playing in independent league, he was drafted this
June with the 12th overall pick by the Royals. They recently offered
him $3 million to sign. I don’t get it. Does he think another year of
independent league ball will get him much more money? I mean, really, if he is
as good as he apparently thinks he is, he could have signed with the Nationals
last year in July and been playing for a Major League salary by now. Do players
like this even remember the Matt Harrington saga?
I suppose they all think they’ll be like Luke
Hochevar and become the #1 overall pick the following
year.
SETH’S THOUGHTS
I know, I can argue both sides
of this argument and give both sides the benefit of the doubt. However, I don’t
think there will be a winner in this situation regardless of what happens at
this point. If Gibson signs for too much, he’ll come across to Twins fans as
greedy and the Twins will look like a team that gives in which could hurt them
looking forward. If Gibson doesn’t sign, he will still come across as greedy
and the Twins will be called cheap. In reality, both sides are just doing what
they need to do for themselves.
The college pitchers that have
been drafted in the top ten have been signing for $2.2 - $2.4 million. That may
be a number that Gibson would want. The Twins don’t want to go above the (just
shy of) $1.3 million mark. Because of the reasons that I mentioned above that
the Twins have to sign Gibson, I would (as the Twins) be willing to sign Gibson
for up to $2 million. So right away in the morning, I would make an offer at
$1.8 million and say “What do you think?” Maybe he counters with $2 million.
Now both sides have given a little bit and shown good faith in doing so. Then
sign for $1.9 million and everyone is happy. Of course, coming from someone
like me who will likely not make half that amount over my lifetime, that’s easy
to say.
To me, that’s a fair effort by
the Twins and a fair effort by the Gibson side. If Gibson isn’t willing to come
down to that range, then it just shows that he really didn’t want to sign. It
showed that he wanted to either go back to school or just get as much money as
possible. I really don’t think it makes a lot of sense to break the bank, as
important as I think signing Gibson would be.
By the time that the Sethspeaks.net Weekly Minnesota
Twins Podcast finishes tonight, we will likely know how this situation
resolved itself. It is a huge situation for the Twins and their future. Let’s
see how it works itself out!
Please feel free to Send me an e-mail, or leave
your questions or comments here.