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Monday August 11, 2003
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A Three-Man Race?
Around the All-Star break, the talk around baseball was Dontrelle Willis, and deservingly so. He was having a great rookie season for the Florida Marlins and was creating excitement even in South Florida. At the time, I commented that if Willis needed to be an All-Star, then Arizona’s Brandon Webb definitely should have been too. Webb’s numbers were all the equivalent of Willis’s, yet he didn’t generate much discussion.
Well, within the past month, Brandon Webb’s notoriety has certainly risen. He has continued to dominate National League hitters. People seem to acknowledge that he probably will lose out to Willis because he’s not as popular or charismatic. But, the fact that he is finally being noticed nationally is good to see.
There is a third National League pitcher who is doing quite well for his team with surprisingly little fanfare. No, he shouldn’t rank alongside the top two rookies, Webb and Willis, but Atlanta’s Horacio Ramirez is performing well enough to warrant discussion. Let’s take a look at these three rookie pitchers, by some varying numbers.
|
Player |
Age |
Games Started |
Innings Pitched |
|
Dontrelle Willis |
21 |
17 |
108.1 |
|
Brandon Webb |
24 |
19 |
128.2 |
|
Horacio Ramirez |
23 |
21 |
137.0 |
· Horacio Ramirez started the season as the Braves #5 starter and has managed to stay in the rotation and been a fairly consistent starter all season.
· Brandon Webb was given a chance to start with the injury to Randy Johnson early in the season and has not looked back. He did spend two weeks on the disabled list with some arm tendonitis.
· Dontrelle Willis didn’t make his debut until May, but has been incredible ever since then! The Oakland native is the youngest pitcher on this list, having been recalled directly from AA.
|
Player |
Wins |
Losses |
ERA |
|
Dontrelle Willis |
11 |
2 |
2.56 |
|
Brandon Webb |
7 |
5 |
2.45 |
|
Horacio Ramirez |
8 |
4 |
4.11 |
Traditional baseball statistics for grading pitchers show a couple of things:
· Willis has not only allowed few runs, but has been able to get enough run-support to rack up that impressive record.
· Webb has been just as frugal in terms of giving up runs, but because the Diamondbacks do not score many runs, his record is not at all indicative of how well he’s pitched. His 2.45 ERA ranks third in the National League.
· Ramirez is a case of a guy whose 8-4 record can directly be linked to the Braves incredible run-support. Although his 4.11 ERA is very solid, especially for a rookie, it is more than a run and a half more per nine innings more than the other two.
|
Player |
WHIP |
BAA |
BB/9 IP |
K/9 IP |
K/BB |
|
Dontrelle Willis |
1.17 |
0.232 |
2.82 |
8.48 |
3.0 |
|
Brandon Webb |
1.10 |
0.213 |
2.87 |
8.39 |
2.9 |
|
Horacio Ramirez |
1.43 |
0.261 |
3.88 |
5.26 |
1.4 |
These are the non-everyday numbers that show a few of the reasons why Horacio Ramirez is a few steps behind Dontrelle Willis and Brandon Webb. They also show just how similar Willis’ and Webb’s numbers are!
Webb’s 1.10 Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched ranks second in the National League. His .213 opponent average ranks 4th in the American League.
But, how important are these numbers? In my opinion, they are important to an extent. Willis’ and Webb’s numbers show that they can be more dominant-type pitchers. But, having watched Ramirez pitch a number of games on TV, he’s more in the mold of former Braves pitchers Tom Glavine or Damion Moss, maybe even Seattle’s Jamie Moyer. Ramirez doesn’t throw very hard, so like those other pitchers, he has to rely more on control and movement. That does make his walk numbers a little bit alarming, but that type of pitcher is prone to give up more hits.
To summarize, I’m certainly not putting Ramirez in the same class of starting pitcher as Dontrelle Willis and Brandon Webb. But that doesn’t take away the fact that he is having a very solid year for the team with the best record in major league baseball, and deserves a little recognition. He has provided them with a solid, consistent starting pitcher every 5th day. He has been as good or better than some of the veterans in the Braves rotation, including Mike Hampton and Shane Reynolds, and at times, future Hall of Famer, Greg Maddux.
Speaking of Greg Maddux, he got off to a really horrid start this season. Coming into the year, he had a streak of 15 consecutive seasons with 15 or more wins. That streak was expected to come to an end, but have you checked out his numbers lately? As of right now, he is 11-8 with a 4.24 ERA. The Braves have 45 games remaining, so Maddux has probably 9 starts left in the season to get 4 more wins. He also has 284 career wins now, so assuming standard Maddux production, it is very much possible that he will notch his 300th career victory next season. However, rumor has it that he will become a San Diego Padres pitcher next season via free agency and that could hurt the chances of reaching the 300-win milestone. Maddux is just 37 years old, so if he’s able to pitch to 41 or 41, he could end with a very impressive win total!
A couple of other Brave notes -
Last night, shortstop Rafael Furcal turned an unassisted triple play, just the 11th in major league history. Horacio Ramirez was pitching. St. Louis catcher, Mike Matheny was on 2B, and Cardinal OF Orlando Palmiero was on 1B. Pitcher Woody Williams was hitting. Jon Miller mentioned that Woody Williams is actually a very good hitting pitcher. A lot of people may argue with the fact that the Cardinals Tony Larussa ran a hit-and-run at that time, but I must admit, I was thinking the exact same thing. Woody Williams hit a line-drive, and Rafael Furcal jumped straight up, probably 30 inches, to make the grab. He then stepped on second, before tagging out Palmiero for the third out. Now, all that was impressive, but did anyone notice how high Ramirez jumped on the mound when Furcal made that catch? He must have been 20 inches up too! And, he did some sort of scissors-kick too that was quite interesting!
Second note, Ramirez pitched great, and until giving up a solo home run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th to Eduardo Perez. Then manager Bobby Cox went to John Smoltz to face Albert Pujols. After Smoltz got ahead 0-1 with a hard slider, he came back with a 96 mph fastball, right down the middle. To Albert Pujols? Why!?!?!?!? About 852 feet later (Note - approximation, perhaps slight hyperbole), Pujols home run ball landed.
The Twins did exactly what they needed to do this weekend. They got a three game sweep of the lowly Detroit Tigers. It wasn’t as easy as fans may like, but the key is they got the wins. 4-3 Friday night. 8-4 in 10 innings on Saturday night. And, 4-3 on Sunday afternoon.
Eddie Guardado got two more saves to bring his season total to 27. On the Dickie Thon Fan Forum site, I’ve let my thoughts on Guardado be known:
“Eddie is so not good!!!
I think he's a perfect example of why stats (of closers) can be deceiving!! He's just not good!!
Bring up Crain and let him throw some gas!!!
Eddie gets shelled pretty much every (or every other) outing. Sometimes he just gets lucky and they hit it at someone, or Torii makes a game-saving catch
I just don't see him as being at all trustworthy!!
And, you can tell me he's got X saves in X+2 or 3 attempts, and I'll just probably roll my eyes.
He'll sure get a save when he comes in with a 3 run lead and no one on!!!”Somehow, the responses to that message seemed to be anti-Hawkins comments, which I really don’t understand, so I had to reply to those saying:
I just wanna clarify!! I said they should go with Crain, not Hawkins!
Although Hawkins was horrid as a closer (for the Twins), it is amazing to me how tough it is for Twins fans to admit that Hawkins is no longer the same pitcher he was 2 years ago. His problem then was baserunners, primarily due to walks! He doesn't walk many any more. SO, although I agree that the fans of Minnesota would revolt if Hawkins was ever the closer again, I can see him going elsewhere (for more money than the Twins SHOULD pay him) and being successful.As I write, it’s hard for me to comprehend the backlash against LaTroy Hawkins by Twins fans. He has not struggled for the past two seasons. He’s proving that isn’t a fluke. I wrote, about two months ago, about what has turned around the career of LaTroy , and the numbers are phenomenal. I’m not going to re-run the numbers to update them for the last two months at this time, but they are no worse! I think Hawkins deserves a lot of credit for the way he has improved his control, added new pitches and really become a dominant middle reliever.
Last Monday, I wrote that the Twins needed to concentrate on winning two of every three game series. This past week, against Baltimore, they won two of the first three against the Orioles, but then lost the fourth game to split the series. Well, The Twins made up that game with the three game Tigers sweep!
So, here’s where the American League Central stands going into Monday’s games:
|
|
W |
L |
GB |
|
Kansas City |
62 |
54 |
-- |
|
Chicago |
62 |
55 |
0.5 |
|
Minnesota |
60 |
57 |
2.5 |
So, putting back into theory my thought that the Twins need to win 2 out of 3 for the rest of the year, the Twins would finish go 30-15 (.667) in their remaining 45 games. That would leave them with a record of 90-72.
If the Twins do that (finish 90-72), we would, of course, want the Royals and White Sox to finish no better than 89-73. So, here’s how they would have to do for the rest of their seasons to have that record. The Royals could go 27-17 (.613), and the White Sox could go 27-16 (.628).
Check out today’s Twins Geek column and see why the Twins have to still be the favorites to win the division. We all have seen that they have the easiest remaining schedule in the whole American League, but John does a great job of explaining why.
I have no problem with defining bench player’s roles. I have no problem with Dustan Mohr being the 4th outfielder and starting a couple times a week, spelling the right fielder, and maybe Jacque Jones against the occasional lefty, and some late-inning defense. I have no problem with Matthew Lecroy catching one, maybe two, games per week, and being the designated hitter another time each week. I have no problem with Todd Sears being a left-handed hitter off the bench. Sears has proven that he does have the ability to hit at the major league level. But, he has played just 3 times in the last 9 games (all pinch hitting). Again, I don’t think he needs to play a lot, he’s not Justin Morneau, but I do think that based on Doug Mientkiewicz’s past wrist injuries, it is important to give him a day off every couple of weeks. Sears has shown that, although he’s not Mienkiewicz-esque with the glove, he does a good job at first base. What concerns me is Ron Gardenhire’s comments:
"I was actually going to try to get him a day off one of these days. Mientkiewicz just doesn't want to come out of the lineup. That is very commendable."
It is absolutely commendable, and Mientkiewicz is tough and gritty, but it is Gardenhire’s job to keep his player’s healthy too. I have no problem with certain players playing 162 games a year, but based again, on Mientkiewicz’s previous wrist problems, a day off every couple of weeks could be beneficial.
Last week, I wrote about how improvement I think Luis Rivas has made this season. He had a great homestand. I should have mentioned that I thought that he might struggle on this week’s road trip, and he did, going just 3-20 at the plate. Why would I have thought that? Take a look at his splits:
|
|
At Bats |
Hits |
Batting Avg |
On-Base # |
Slugging % |
|
Grass |
145 |
27 |
0.186 |
0.256 |
0.269 |
|
Turf |
186 |
62 |
0.333 |
0.372 |
0.446 |
|
|
At Bats |
Hits |
Batting Avg |
On-Base # |
Slugging % |
|
Home |
170 |
56 |
0.329 |
0.372 |
0.441 |
|
Road |
161 |
33 |
0.205 |
0.267 |
0.292 |
So, basically, he hits very well on the turf. The Metrodome has turf. He’s hitting well at home, and not-at-all well on the road.
So, just one more Rivas split:
|
|
At Bats |
Hits |
Batting Avg |
On-Base # |
Slugging % |
|
vs. Lefties |
95 |
19 |
0.200 |
0.250 |
0.221 |
|
vs. Righties |
236 |
70 |
0.297 |
0.349 |
0.428 |
So basically, if the Twins are playing at home, and there is a right-handed pitcher for the opponent, expect Rivas to hit well!!!
Discussion Question of the Week:
This week’s question has just one part. Again, here are the rules:
1.) Take a look at the below question and think about how you would answer it.
2.) Send me an e-mail letting me know how you would answer the question.
3.) Check back every day, and if you have further ideas, e-mail me again!
4.) For sure, check back on Friday and see what other responses I received.
Without further ado, this week’s Question of the Week:
If you ran a baseball team, and had all of the players ever to have played the game at your disposal (in their primes, not at the current age or living status), what lineup would you put on the field?
Have a Great Week!