Available Ace Arms
·
Be
sure to listen to last
night’s Twins Minor League Weekly podcast.
The
question of whether the Twins should be buyers or sellers continues to come up.
As I wrote yesterday, with the Twins next 15 games being against the four AL
Central teams, we will know a lot more at that end of that stretch. Many
believe that the Twins need help in the bullpen. I wouldn’t completely
disagree. Another reliever that can be counted on would be great, although no
one they could acquire in a trade will be as valuable as getting Joe Nathan
back at 100%, Glen Perkins continuing to dominate, and Matt Capps
piching well.
It
always amazes me when I hear a Twins Fan say or write something like “Division
titles me nothing to me anymore.” That is the most ludicrous thing a fan can
say, I think. Obviously in order to get to the World Series, you have to get to
the playoffs. My opinion is that once in the playoffs, it’s just a tournament
and the best team does not always win. But, one thing that we all can agree on
is that pitching wins in the playoffs. Many Twins fans question the Twins
starting pitchers should they make the playoffs.
In my
opinion, if Scott Baker comes back healthy in the second half and continues to
pitch as he did in the first half, he can absolutely be a winning pitcher in
the playoffs. The other guy that I think can win in the playoffs is Francisco Liriano because he has the type of dominant stuff that can
dominate in the playoffs. We have only seen that a few times in 2011, but he is
a guy that should be able to pitch well. He did a year ago. Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing
are not prototypical top of the rotation guys for a playoff team but if they’re
at the back end of a playoff rotation, I’ll take my chances.
Even
so, I believe that a large percentage of Twins fans would still argue that the
team’s biggest need is a top of the rotation starter, a CC Sabathia,
a Justin Verlander, an unquestioned ace. I would
never have a problem with the Twins bringing in a starter who could have that
type of role. A couple of quick notes though. Two years ago, the Brewers gave
up four good prospects to acquire CC Sabathia from
Cleveland. Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley have
helped the Tribe get to where they are this season. Sabathia
was terrific and the Brewers ran him ragged the rest of the regular season. He
got them to the playoffs for the first time in almost 30 years. But when the
playoffs started, Sabathia was gassed and was shelled
in the playoffs. Or, how about last year, the Rangers gave up
Justin Smoak to acquire Cliff Lee for a couple of
months. He helped Texas to the World Series, but he struggled in those
two WS starts. In my mind, some Twins fans would be disappointed in Lee because
he didn’t win the World Series. I would also add that the Twins had a pretty
solid ace through most of the decade of the 2000s. Johan Santana at that time
was the definition of an Ace. Did having that ace, arguably the best pitcher in
baseball, get the Twins to the promised land that some
Twins fans seem to think is the only end to a season that is acceptable? No.
So
again, I would take my chances with the Twins rotation IF they are able to get
to the playoffs.
I was listening
to KFAN on Thursday morning and there was a discussion of Twins needs and they
too mentioned an Ace. I e-mailed producer Joe Nelson about the subject. He
responded by saying, “Staff Aces are hard to get, but more than attainable. If
this team wants to be known as a contender, they need to stop holding onto
their prospects with potential and go out and get guaranteed studs.”
Again,
like Sabathia was for the Brewers? Like Santana did
for the Twins?
But
still, it was an interesting comment to me, particularly the comment about aces
being more than attainable. So, what I did is looked at the standings in all
six divisions in baseball and considered which teams might be sellers at the
trade deadline. Teams that are in contention will not be trading their aces. It
is a little too early to know, but I did want to start considering the topic.
Of those teams that could be sellers, I looked at their pitching staffs and
tried to determine which pitchers would be considered an “Ace” or a “Stud.”
Here is what I found, with my thoughts:
·
Toronto
Blue Jays – I would consider Ricky
Romero close to an Ace. He was just signed to a long-term deal, so he will
not be traded.
·
Baltimore
Orioles – Brian Matusz
is the closest thing they have to an ace, and he missed two months of the
season before coming back, struggling and being sent to AAA.
·
Kansas
City Royals – They’re (always) in rebuilding mode. Their only aces are
prospects and they’re not going to deal those.
·
Oakland
A’s – Brett Anderson is hurt and out
for awhile. Trevor Cahill isn’t an improvement for the Twins. Gio Gonzalez is an ace, and he is one guy
that I would be willing to give up a lot to get!
·
Seattle
Mariners – The M’s aren’t dealing Felix
Hernandez, even if they maybe should. They also will not be dealing Michael Pineda at this point for
anything!
·
Florida
Marlins – I like Josh Johnson as
much as anyone, but considering he’s already had Tommy John surgery once and
has been on the 60 Day DL with arm/elbow problems, I would be hesitant to give
up upper echelon prospects for him. Anibal Sanchez is
certainly intriguing, but with the Marlins moving into a new stadium next year,
I can’t believe that he would be available.
·
Washington
Nationals – They’re not trading Stephen
Strasburg.
·
Cubs
– Carlos Zambrano
is on a rehab assignment (and will pitch against Beloit tonight). No Thanks!
And speaking of head cases, you have to think that Matt Garza would be a
trade candidate yet again, and we know he isn’t going to go to the Twins. Garza
has become the new AJ Burnett. Great talent who just is so inconsistent that it’s
hard to say he fits the true ace mold.
·
Houston
Astros – Wandy Rodriguez is probably available, but
is he really an Ace, a step above what the Twins have? Is he a guy you would
feel really good starting in a Game 1?
·
Colorado
Rockies – At this point, the Rockies are looking for a starting pitcher. But
should they sell, Jhoulys Chacin would
not be available. Ubaldo Jimenez might be, and if you knew you
were getting 2010 Jimenez, it’d be great. He’s been hurt most of this year.
·
San
Diego Padres – They don’t have an ace-type pitcher. They’ve got some starters
with good numbers, but that could be due to Petco
Park.
·
Los
Angeles Dodgers – Now this is where it gets interesting. With all of the issues
surrounding the Dodgers, the bankruptcy, the inability to meet payroll, etc.,
it isn’t impossible to see a scenario where they would sell off some pieces. Chad Billingsley would be a terrific
pitcher for the Twins to add and I would give up quite a bit to get him. However,
with Clayton Kershaw about to get
more expensive, I would give up anything (including Gibson, Hicks, etc.) to
acquire the young, talented left-hander! That said, I
am not certain that MLB would support the trading of Kershaw.
SUMMARY – I guess I don’t see a lot of ‘Aces’
being readily available. Maybe a couple more teams will struggle through July
and become sellers and a name or two might become available. But for right now,
I think there are just THREE starting pitchers that I would consider aces that
would be available and the Twins should be interested in. Frankly, Clayton
Kershaw is the crown jewel of that list, and I don’t know just how available he
really would be. I would hope the Twins would make a call to the Dodgers to at
least gauge that. Next would be Gio Gonzalez of the A’s.
I don’t know that I’d give up Gibson for him, but probably anybody else. Next
would be Chad Billingsley, but there would be a couple more guys that I would
not trade to get him, including Liam Hendriks. If
doctors felt that Josh Johnson would be healthy for sure over the course of the
next two or three years, the life of his contract, I would obviously give up a
lot for him. I just don’t think that we can say that which means that I would
not deal any of the Twins top five prospects for him either. None of these
three would be rentals as each would be under the Twins control for at least a
few years.
1.) Clayton Kershaw – Any two top prospects,
plus a couple of second or third tier prospects.
2.) Gio Gonzalez – not Gibson.
3.) Chad Billingsley – not Gibson, Hicks, Arcia or Hendriks.
\So, are there a couple of Aces that may or may not be
available? Maybe… or maybe not. Should the Twins call
on these guys? Absolutely. Should they be willing to
trade good prospects for top pitching talent? Of course.
Should they break the bank for anyone? Of course not, although, for Kershaw, it
has to be considered.
What do you think? Did I miss any names? Are there
other teams that might be sellers in three weeks? Let
me know what you think.