Wednesday, July 4, 2007
JUNE GRADES
Good morning everybody! Well, by the time you read this, I will be long gone, likely enjoying my 4th of July holiday. And then on Thursday, I will be on my way down to Nebraska to visit some family. But, be sure to check back Thursday and Friday as I hope to have something new each day. And, I'm sure you'll be excited to know that the Minor League reports will be done by mini_tb who did a great job with it last Friday. So, again, travel is the name of the game for me, and it will be the case the next two weeks. I just hope to be able to provide new material daily.
But today, is grades day! As we now enter July, it is time to look back at how the Twins players performed in June. Of course, my grades are mine, and you are certainly welcome to agree or disagree. I just think it is interesting to look at the information for what it is, numbers from a small part of the season. Although it covers 27 games, that is still a relatively small sample size. I gave grades to 27 players. I hate to give F's. I really do, but I even gave out one of those this month. The rest of the grades; nine A's, four B's, eight C's and five D's.
So, let's take a look at the players and
see how they did in the season's first month. Be sure to make your
comments known in the Comments:
THE PITCHERS
THE STARTERS
SCOTT BAKER
(4 Starts, 22.1 Innings, 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA, 5 walks, 22 strikeouts, 1.39 WHIP, 8.9 K/9)
Scott Baker has certain had his ups and downs in his short time back with the Twins. Baker was at the point where his time with the Twins was about done and he had to pitch against the Mets. He went five solid innings, enough for another start. He then had a great start against the Blue Jays, and most recently, he had his best start against the Tigers this past weekend. Hopefully he has found the turning point in his career. Clearly consistency is the key with Baker. I liked the strikeouts this month, just need to give up less hits and runs.
May Grade: C-
June Grade: D+
BOOF BONSER
(5 Starts, 28.2 Innings, 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA, 6 walks, 17 strikeouts, 1.57 WHIP, 5.3 K/9)
Based on April, Bonser put himself into consideration for a demotion to AAA. May was an excellent month for him. June was a horrible month for Bonser. It was very Ponson or Ortiz like really. Too many hits. Too many runs. The strikeouts were way down. He has again made himself a possibility for a return trip to Rochester. (he does have one more option remaining, so they could do that).
April Grade: C+
May Grade: A-
June Grade: D-
JOHAN SANTANA
(6 Starts, 41.0 Innings Pitched, 3-2 with a 1.98 ERA, 9 walks, 33 strikeouts, 0.98 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)
May was better than April, and now June was better than May. Sure, the 3-2 record was the same as May, but he pitched much better. The highlight was his complete game shutout against the Mets. The strikeouts were down on average because of that game. He struck out just one. Santana is ahead of where he normally is at this time of the year, so I expect a great second half again. Plus, he can hit!
April Grade: B
May Grade: A-
June Grade: A
CARLOS SILVA
(6 Starts, 40.0 Innings Pitched, 3-3 with a 4.05 ERA. 7 walk, 16 strikeouts, 1.23 WHIP, 3.6 K/9)
Silva threw a complete game shutout against the Braves. The rest of his month was pretty inconsistent. He did strike out more hitters, but seven walks in a month is a lot for Carlos. Very average month for Silva, but remember that a 4.05 ERA is likely 1/2 run or more better than league average, so the Twins can live with it.
April Grade: B-
May Grade: C+
June Grade: C+
KEVIN SLOWEY
(6 Starts, 33.1 Innings Pitched, 3-0 with a 5.13 ERA. 7 walk, 17 strikeouts, 1.56 WHIP, .? Opponent Average, 4.6 K/9)
Slowey gave up just one run over six innings against the A's in his debut on June 1st. He has made five more starts and despite that 3-0 record, he has been inconsistent. He has been pretty hittable. He had the game against the Brewers in which he walked four which was unusual. The big concern with Slowey though in his first month is all of the home runs he has allowed. It has had me remembering the whole "Real as Radke" marketing promotion for EA Sports back in the late '90s. It's all about adjustments and Slowey will make those adjustments. He'll be fine.
June Grade: C-
THE BULLPEN
(Repeat from Last Month to explain new, made-up stat) - With the bullpen, I have been struggling with what these typical numbers mean. I think some of the numbers are important, but not all. Inherited Runners affect ERA, but not always in a good way. So ERA is meaningless with this few innings. So, what I did is went through the box scores and game logs of the Twins 27 May games and gave each reliever in each game a plus (for a positive outing) or a minus (for a negative outing). I am going to introduce a stat for this report just called Reliever Efficiency. It is simply a measure of quality relief efforts to total relief efforts. If this formula were to be more publicized, I think it would be good, but I think that there are a lot of variables about what constitutes a quality relief outing. How do Inherited runners affect that? How about a shutout inning with two hits and a walk? (Nathan got a save doing just that in May) Is that a quality outing? How about a guy who, in a game where the Twins got down early provided 4 innings of two run ball to eat up innings? How about recording a save, but giving up two runs? Dennys Reyes is really the guy that made me think about this topic. He had the one game that jumped his ERA to something like 15.00. Because of limited innings, it takes forever for his ERA to drop to a respectable level. But, if he just continues to get the job done when he continues to be asked to, that number comes down eventually. The definition of "Quality Relief Appearance" is up for debate, but for today, I just did this with my opinions. This sounds like a posting all to its own, but that may be for another day, so you'll just have to go with my opinions.
CARMEN CALI
(5 Games, 3.1 Innings Pitched, 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 1 walks, 2 strikeouts, 0.90 WHIP, 5.4 K/9)
Cali came up and really did a nice job. He was sent back to Rochester when Dennys Reyes came off the DL. His Reliever Efficiency was 100% (5-5). Simply stated, he got his job done each time he was given the ball... and Gardy was not afraid to go to him in crunch times.
May Grade: A
June Grade: A
MATT GUERRIER
(12 Games, 15.2 Innings Pitched, 0-1, 1.72 ERA, 4 walks, 12 strikeouts, 1.15 WHIP, .? Opponent Average, 6.9 K/9)
Guerrier's Reliever Efficiency was 75% (9-12) in June. That isn't too bad. The ERA and WHIP are very good. In big situations, Guerrier has continued to come through. He has certainly passed Juan Rincon in terms of getting important situations, and that is a good thing!
April Grade: B+
May Grade: B+
June Grade: B+
JASON MILLER
(1 Game, 0.1 Innings Pitched, 0-0 with a 216.00 ERA, 2 walk, 0 strikeouts, 27.00 WHIP, 0.0 K/9)
I really should just leave this game out of this grading system. I won't grade a guy's month on 1/3 of an inning. It was a rough outing for Miller, and we all know it. He was returned to the minors shortly after this appearance. He is now back in the Rochester starting rotation. I really hope he gets another shot with the Twins.
May Grade: A
June Grade: N/A
JOE NATHAN
(10 Games, 11.0 Innings Pitched, 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA, 5 Saves in 6 Chances, 2 walk, 14 strikeouts, 1.09 WHIP, 11.5 K/9)
Joe Nathan's Reliever Efficiency for June was 70% (7-10). He was good on five of six save opportunities. Although his WHIP looks good, and his strikeouts are definitely up, that ERA is a bit concerning. My visual perception of Nathan is that he has been a lot more hittable, and yet, the 1.09 WHIP is excellent.
April Grade: C+
May Grade: A-
June Grade: A-
PAT NESHEK
(13 Games, 13.2 Innings Pitched, 1-0 with a 1.32 ERA, 2 walk, 17 strikeouts, 0.44 WHIP, .? Opponent Average, 11.2 K/9)
Neshek's Reliever Efficiency for the month was 85% (11-13). One of the 'failed' games was a meaningless inning in which he gave up a solo homer to Miguel Cabrera, so really nothing to feel bad about. WHIP is incredible. ERA is great. Got a win. Has big strikeouts. There is a pretty clear reason why he is recognized as one of five guys for that 32nd All-Star option. Fact is, he probably should have made it before this 32nd Man vote.
April Grade: A-
May Grade: A
June Grade: A
RAMON ORTIZ
(6 Games, 16.0 Innings Pitched, 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA, 1 walks, 7 strikeouts, 1.44 WHIP, 3.9 K/9)
In one game, Carlos Silva was only able to go three innings. Ortiz came in and gave the team six innings of relief. To me, that was a quality outing no matter how many runs or hits he gave up. In his role, he pitches those types of games and those types of innings and taking up the innings is more important than the number of runs allowed and such. He gave the rest of the bullpen a day off. He's still pitching a lot like Ramon Ortiz, but that role still has some value.
April Grade: A
May Grade: D-
June Grade: C+
GLEN PERKINS
(DNP)
Injured. Hopefully we'll see some rehab starts soon.
April Grade: C-
May Grade: C
June Grade: N/A
DENNIS REYES
(8 Game, 5.2 Innings Pitched, 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 1 walks, 3 strikeout, 1.06 WHIP, 4.8 K/9)
Reyes came back from injury and was much better this month. Hopefully being healthy will allow him to come closer to his 2006 form. No runs. His reliever efficiency was 88% (7-8). He can be important if he can throw strikes.
April Grade: F
May Grade: D+
June Grade: A
JUAN RINCON
(10 Games, 10.0 Innings Pitched, 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts, 1.50 WHIP, .? Opponent Average, 5.4 K/9)
Juan Rincon's 'Reliever Efficiency was 70% (7-10). That number actually surprised me. The problem is, and the reason his numbers are so high, that he had three straight really, really, really bad outings. They were bad. Really bad. He's clearly just not the pitcher that he was 2-5 years ago. He has been passed by in the reliever hierarchy. Hopefully he can have a solid second half or be traded at the deadline for anything.
April Grade: B+
May Grade: C-
June Grade: D-
THE HITTERS
JASON BARTLETT
(24 Games, 25-84, .298/.368/.405, 3-2B, 2-HR, 11-RBI, 10/10 SB, 9 BB, 11 K)
Very good month for Jason Bartlett. These are the types of numbers that I expected from Bartlett every month. Hopefully he can maintain a 37% on-base percentage and stay in the #2 hole. You have to love the stolen bases too. If he gets on base, he makes things happen. He is certainly putting together much better at bats.
April Grade: C-
May Grade: C-
June Grade: A-
LUIS CASTILLO
(25 Games, 27-108, .250/.289/.287, 4-2B, 0-3B, 0-HR, 4-RBI, 4/7 SB, 6 BB, 12 K)
I know many believe Castillo is good and is the team's igniter. However, a sub-.580 OPS is horrific. Seriously, that is bad. He didn't walk much. He didn't get many hits. I don't care about the power, but he showed none of that. As a leadoff hitter, the only thing that matters to me is the on base percentage, and sub-.300 is really bad. I know he was over his head in May, but reality set back in in June. I know some don't think that Alexi Casilla is ready, but I am most certain that given the same number of at bats and the same opportunities, Casilla's OPS would be no lower than Castillo's. I would argue that neither his on base percentage or slugging percentage would be lower than Castillo's. And, in 2008, he would cost about $6-8 million less than Luis. A full month like this is a good reminder that fiscal responsibility is good.
April Grade: B-
May Grade: A
June Grade: D-
JEFF CIRILLO
(16 Games, 17-52, .327/.379/.385, 3-2B,0-3B, 0-HR, 8-RBI, 1/1 SB, 5 BB, 4 K)
A good month for Cirillo. He got hits and got on base. He didn't show much power, but again, we knew he wouldn't. The health of his knees are really the big question for the 37 year old. If he can stay in the lineup, particularly against lefties, he can really help this team.
April Grade: INC
May Grade: C
June Grade: A
MICHAEL CUDDYER
(27 Games, 27-103, .262/.364/.408, 5-2B, 2-3B, 2-HR, 13-RBI, 1/1 SB, 17 BB, 19 K)
Cuddyer was back into the lineup all month. The thing that Cuddyer is doing consistently in 2007 is taking a lot of pitches and taking a lot of walks. I know that even I get frustrated at times by how many good pitches he takes and some of the sliders he swings at. However, an Isolated Discipline of over .100 is excellent. He continued to show extra base power despite just two homers.
April Grade: A-
May Grade: A
June Grade: B
LEW FORD
(15 Games, 14-43, .326/.383/.535, 3-2B, 2-HR, 8-RBI, 2/2 SB, 3 BB, 5 K)
I am one who says that Ford is an excellent fourth outfielder for any team. A month like this month shows that. Limited plate appearances and yet when he was in the lineup, he produced. He had a few big hits. He put the ball in play. This was a good month, and it probably shows that half-time or part-time duty is ideal for Ford.
April Grade: INC
May Grade: D
June Grade: A
CHRIS HEINTZ
(4 Games, 2-6, .333/.333/.333, 0-2B, 0-HR, 2-RBI, 0/0 SB, 0 BB, 1 K)
Why Gardy refuses to play Heintz is beyond me. I just don't get it. I know he was the insurance policy at catcher. OK, if you feel that is important, fine. But play the guy. Don't play short-handed. Remember that Heintz was brought up initially in 2005 because of his hitting, not his catching. He can hit. His hitting track record is as good as Mike Redmonds had been in the minors. Why not give him a game at DH? Why spend a month with the team and start just one game? I don't get it.
April Grade: INC
May Grade: C
June Grade: A-
TORII HUNTER
(27 Games, 28-102, .275/.318/.510, 4-2B, 1-3B, 6-HR, 18-RBI, 2/3 SB, 6 BB, 13 K)
Honestly, part of me wants to say that reality set in for Hunter in June. Yet, you look at the numbers, and these are the types of numbers that I would have expected from Hunter this season. The fact that he put together a very strong June really only illustrates how lights out he was the first two months of the season.
April Grade: A
May Grade: A
June Grade: B+
JASON KUBEL
(19 Games, 17-64, .266/.309/.469, 4-2B, 3-HR, 10-RBI, 0-0 SB, 4 BB, 8 K)
This is a little bit better. I do see improvements with Kubel. I know he plays most every day, and I think that is good and he should, but he hasn't come through. In June, he did. I know these numbers are nowhere near where I believe his numbers will be in time, if he is hitting 7th in a lineup and putting up these numbers, teams should be happy with that. He will just keep getting better.
April Grade: C
May Grade: C
June Grade: C+
JOE MAUER
(20 Games, 19-83, .229/.312/.434, 4-2B, 2-3B, 3-HR, 16-RBI, 2/2 SB, 10 BB, 12 K)
It was a rough month for Mauer. He came back from his quad injury later than expected and then it took him awhile to really get going with the bat. The numbers show that. He still took his walks which is important, and he hit for some power, so that is encouraging as well.
April Grade: A
May Grade: N/A
June Grade: C
JUSTIN MORNEAU
(22 Games, 21-85, .247/.316/.435, 2-2B, 1-3B, 4-HR, 17-RBI, 0/0 SB, 9 BB, 12 K)
Just look at how identical the numbers of Morneau and Mauer were in June. That is really incredible. Morneau had to miss five games or so near the end of the month due to the collision at the plate with Miguel Olivo and the subsequent bruised lung. In other words, his counting numbers would be a bit higher had he played in those games, which he would have. It's good to have the reigning MVP back, and it will be important for he and Mauer to both show significant improvement starting now.
April Grade: B+
May Grade: A
June Grade: C
NICK PUNTO
(23 Games, 12-80, .150/.253/.213, 2-2B, 0-3B, 1-HR, 4-RBI, 4/4 SB, 11 BB, 15 K)
Did anyone, including Terry Ryan or Ron Gardenhire, really expect Punto to put up numbers similar to 2006? I mean, you would think that they would have known that he wasn't that good (and he really wasn't that good in 2006). And yet, they gave him a big contract, for two years. Anyway, June was a really bad month. He didn't hit at all. The home run and three of the RBI came on one big swing! That was about the lone highlight of the month for him.
April Grade: C
May Grade: C+
June Grade: F
MIKE REDMOND
(17 Games, 12-55, .218/.259/.218, 0-2B, 0-HR, 7-RBI, 0/0 SB, 3 BB, 6 K)
Not a good month for Redmond. I want to say that as a backup catcher, these numbers are fine and I'm sure he helped out the pitching staff quite a bit. Most of his at bats came as a DH. Maybe this is the real Mike Redmond when he gets too many at bats and opponents start scouting him more thoroughly. Or, maybe after so many great months the last two years, this is just one quick hiccup and July will look better.
April Grade: B
May Grade: A
June Grade: C-
LUIS RODRIGUEZ
(9 Games, 2-20, .100/.217/.100, 0-2B, 0-HR, 1-RBI, 1/1 SB, 3 BB, 2 K)
Hard to judge a guy on 20 at bats. I like the walks and the lack of strikeouts. I like his defense. But 2-20 just isn't good. I'm still a big fan though.
April Grade: C-
May Grade: C
June Grade: D-
JASON TYNER
(17 Games, 13-39, .333/.381/.385, 2-2B, 0-HR, 3-RBI, 2/2 SB, 3 BB, 3 K)
It was a decent month for Tyner showing that he can be a decent fifth outfielder at the big league level. He doesn't walk much or hit for any power, so both his on-base percentage and slugging percentage are very much dependent upon his batting average. Those numbers don't look so bad with a .333 average. They don't look so good with a .222 line.
April Grade: A-
May Grade: D+
June Grade: B
RONDELL WHITE
(Did Not Play)
One of these days he'll get back in the lineup. Then what will happen to the lineup and roster? (Note - This is what I wrote last month. Same thing this month.)
April Grade: INC
May Grade: N/A
June Grade: N/A
So, there are my June Grades for the Minnesota Twins players. I would love to hear you thoughts or comments on any of them. Please feel free to agree or disagree and let me know why. Send me an e-mail.
That is it for today. I am going to be gone yet again. I will be at the lake on the Fourth of July, and I will be traveling to Nebraska on Thursday and won't be back until Monday evening sometime. I will then be flying to Orlando next Wednesday for the rest of the week for work. But, I really hope to have something new up on the site each day. And, I have enlisted the help of the great mini_tb to provide minor league updates each day. I will also try to post a few thoughts myself each day when at all possible.
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