Friday, June 5, 2009

SethSpeaks.net Top 50

Minnesota Twins Prospects

Part 4: Prospects 1-10

After looking at Twins prospects 36-50 Tuesday, and 21-35 Wednesday, and Prospects 11-20 yesterday, it is time to look at my choices for the Top 10 Twins Prospects. Again, let me know what you think. I hope you enjoy this and again, please feel free to comment.

What is a prospect and how do I rank them? First of all, prospect ranking is far from an exact science. The top prospects do not always pan out, and frequently other players seemingly come out of nowhere. I do this as much to recognize players as anything else. But I also have been following the Twins minor league system for several years now and have tried to learn what I can about how they operate, and what is needed for promotions, and what skills are important. I have not included players from the Dominican Summer League in these rankings because they need about 7 promotions before they would get to the big leagues. I daily review box scores from the games. I keep up with stats and some trends. For hitters, I like to look at OBP and SLG, but specifically at 2B and 3B coupled with body type to try to determine if HR are in their future. For pitchers, I will look at WHIP and innings and consistency and opponent’s batting average. One of the key stats I look at for both hitters and pitchers are walks and strikeouts which I think tell a lot about a player.

Now, sitting in Minnesota, I have little opportunity to actually see many of these players play. When it comes to prospects, you have to try to look beyond the stats. I have developed sources in and around the Twins farm system to try to get a closer perspective on the players, what their skills are, what they need to work on. I think it is vital to look beyond the stats to try to give a fair perspective. You also have to consider age and level of competition. You have to weigh potential ceiling with likelihood of reaching that ceiling.

With that, I am curious your thoughts on my top ten Twins prospects, or any of the top 50. Who is missing? (Note – I made a concerted effort not to include Jose Mijares just because I think he is now pretty established as a big leaguer.) In the comments, share your top 10, top 20, or whatever you like.

#10 – Rene Tosoni – OF – 22 (7/2/86)

2009 Teams: New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Twins 36th round pick in 2005 out of Chipola College

We talk so frequently about how slowly the Twins promote minor league prospects, how so often a player will repeat a level at which he experienced a lot of success. Well, Rene Tosoni is one example of the opposite. In 2007, after helping Elizabethton to an Appy League title, he finished the season with Beloit where he helped them in their playoff run to the Midwest League championship series. Normally, such a player would then go to Beloit to start the next season, but Tosoni was promoted to Ft. Myers, essentially skipping Low A ball. He did great through about 40 games but then broke his foot. He came back late in the season. I figured this year he would start the season at Ft. Myers to get some more at bats. The Twins sent him to AA New Britain. And he has held his own. To date, he is hitting .269/.366/.503 with nine doubles, three triples and eight home runs. In about 190 plate appearances, he has 20 walks, but he also has 50 strikeouts. I’m very impressed with the extra base power. So what must we know? First, the Twins brass must really thinking highly of Tosoni’s abilities because they simply do not put players in situations to fail. It also means that they think very highly of his makeup, and being able to handle being pushed. All in all, I think that his ability is enough to put him in this spot, but those other things make it an easy choice. And just think, I wrote this much without even mentioning that he’s Canadian!

2009 Projection: should spend all year in New Britain outfield, possible AFL invite.

Potential: steady all around outfielder

Could be in Minnesota in: 2010

#9 – Kevin Mulvey – RHP – 23 (5/26/84)

2009 Team: Rochester Red Wings

Acquired: Traded to Twins with Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber and Deolis Guerra for Johan Santana in March 2008

Due to the Twins starting pitching situation, Mulvey is left to repeat at AAA Rochester. He’s still young, so that isn’t a horrible thing. He can work on things and improve. The main thing that you will want to do is see if he has improved. That’s not as easily said than done though because Mulvey had a very nice rookie season in the International League. Last year, he went 7-9 with a 3.77 ERA. This year, he is 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA. Last year, his WHIP was 1.35. This year, it is 1.33. His H/9 last year was 9.2. This year is 8.6. His HR/9 rate last year was 1.0. This year, it is 0.6. His BB and K rates are very similar to last year. Now, he is just ten starts into this season, so we will obviously have to look at all of those numbers again when the season is complete and he has made 27 starts. We don’t necessarily know what pitches or other things he is working on, so it may not even be a fair apple to apples comparison. He is working on working faster. He has several different breaking balls, so he is likely working on understanding when to use each. He could be the best starter on this staff. Swarzak was the first Red Wings pitcher promoted to start. Could there be need for a second?

2009 Projection: starting for Rochester, could be the next guy to get a chance.

Potential: 4th starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#8 – David Bromberg – RHP – 21 (9/14/87)

2009 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 32nd round pick in 2005 out of Pacific Palisades (CA) HS

As has been mentioned here several times, Bromberg led all of minor league baseball in strikeouts in 2008. At Beloit, however, he was just 9-10 with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. In 150 innings, he struck out 177, but he also walked 50, which was a great improvement. With the promotion to the Florida State League, it will be interesting to see how his overall numbers compare to his numbers a year ago. But one thing is for sure… So far, so good! Bromberg has made nine starts. He is 5-0 with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. The last two years he averaged 12.5 and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings (in the Appy League and the Midwest League, respectively). This year, his K-rate is down to 7.6. He has walked 23 in 51 innings to this point, which is an increase and something to monitor. He has allowed one or fewer runs in his last five starts. He has allowed one or less runs in eight of his last night games… the other game, he gave up two runs. Bromberg has been excellent to this point in the season. At 6-5, he still has a little room to grow and gain strength. I think he can continue as a starting pitcher and be very good.

2009 Projection: Ft. Myers rotation all year

Potential: better control would make him a potential #2 starter, could be a closer

Could be in Minnesota in: 2012

#7 – Carlos Gutierrez – RHP – 22 (9/22/86)

2009 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2008 out of University of Miami

I have been told by some that Gutierrez has been the Twins top pitching prospect by a long ways. I’m not quite that certain about that, but he has been very good. I feel the need to start with a few things to keep people’s expectations for Gutierrez a little more realistic. In ten starts for the Miracle, he went 2-3 with a 1.32 ERA which is obviously excellent. It masks, in some way, that he allowed twenty runs, but just eight were earned. In other words, he was hurt by his defense, but in some cases, he didn’t pick them up either. He didn’t help himself with walks either. In 54.2 innings, he gave up only 37 hits, but he also walked another 22. He only struck out 33 hitters. But his sinker or sinking movement on his fastball makes him a very effective pitcher. He was averaging nearly 4.5 groundballs for every fly out, which is remarkable. Worst case, Gutierrez is probably a harder throwing, slightly better version of former Twins pitcher Carlos Silva. If he is able to make strides with his secondary pitches, including a change up, he could be very good. He was just promoted to New Britain where he will be a starter for them as well. That should really be a good challenge for him. The key will be his ability to throw strikes with his pitches that move all over the place and hitters with a better eye.

2009 Projection: should spend the rest of the season starting in New Britain

Potential: needs to develop/improve secondary pitches and stay healthy, could be middle of rotation type

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

#6 – Anthony Swarzak – RHP – 23 (9/10/85)

2009 Teams: Rochester Red Wings, Minnesota Twins
Acquired: Twins 2^nd round pick in 2004 out of Ft. Lauderdale, FL

When Glen Perkins had to go on the Disabled List last month, the choice for who would replace him in the Twins rotation was easy. Anthony Swarzak earned the promotion. In seven Red Wings starts, he was 3-4 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He had been 5-0 in Rochester at the end of the 2008 season as well. He then threw seven shutout innings against a good Brewers lineup in his big league debut and followed that with a quality start against the Red Sox in his second game. In his third game, Wednesday night against Cleveland, he went just four innings and gave up five runs. However, he looked pretty good in the game. In fact, he could have been out of the four run inning earlier. It is likely that Swarzak will head back to Rochester when Perkins comes back, but if so, it could be temporary and short-term. If that is the case, he likely will have a few things to work on and come back with the confidence of the Twins coaching staff. I would feel better about him if he struck out more batters, but that is nullified somewhat by the fact that he doesn’t walk very many. It has obviously been an up and down career for Swarzak, but things seem to be on the upswing.

2009 Projection: could move back and forth from Minnesota to Rochester the rest of the season.
Potential: #3-type starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#5 – Angel Morales – OF – 19 (11/24/89)

2009 Teams: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 3rd round pick in 2007 out of Puerto Rico Baseball Academy

OK, he’s only hitting .226 and getting on base .297. I know he has 50 strikeouts in about 180 plate appearances. I just can’t help it. But he’s so young and so athletic and so talented. I don’t think it is bad to repeat that he is younger than Aaron Hicks. His Isolated Discipline remains very good. He has seven doubles, three triple and six home runs. Maybe I should only post his home numbers this year. At Beloit, he is hitting .313/.363/.554 while in road games, he is hitting just .136/.231/.272. Listen, Angel Morales has a long ways to go to be big-league ready, no question. But due to his age, he will be given as much time as he needs. I would expect him to repeat at Beloit next season. There are holes in his swing that he will have to fill and that comes from staying at a level where he can succeed. He is where he should be, and the key to watch with him is how much he improves as the season wears on.

2009 Projection: Beloit Snappers OF

Potential: 5-tool athlete, All Star caliber, 30/30 type

Could be in Minnesota in: 2013

#4 – Wilson Ramos – C – 21 (8/10/87)

2009 Teams: New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: signed as free agent out of Dominican Republic

Ramos was added to the Twins 40 man roster after putting together a very strong 2008 season in the Florida State League. He had hit .288/.346/.434 with 23 doubles, two triples, 13 homers and 78 RBI. He certainly impressed many in Ft. Myers this spring during training camp with his batting practice power, catching skills and powerful arm behind the plate. Many Twins fans hoped maybe he could be the Twins catcher on opening day while Joe Mauer was out. The Twins sent him down early as he still has several improvements to make. He got off to a slow start in New Britain before breaking the tip of his left middle finger and missing several weeks. Since returning, he has gone six four 14. His overall numbers in 110 plate appearances are .290/.306/.364. He has just two walks, but the 15 strikeouts are a very good improvement that he will hopefully be able to maintain. It will also be important for him to figure out how to take some more walks. If that rate doesn’t increase, then there could be cause for concern. He has five doubles and one home run. In that very strong Ft. Myers lineup, Ramos should again put up very good numbers this season and continue to rise on people’s radars.

2009 Projection: spending the season in New Britain catching and DHing

Potential: good hit DH, and a catcher who could share catching duties with Mauer.

Could be in Minnesota in: 2010

Sidenote – Wilson Ramos is from Valencia, Venezuela, which leads us to…

#3 – Danny Valencia – 3B – 24 (9/19/84)

2009 Team: New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Twins 19th round pick in 2006 out of Miami

Danny Valencia has gone one for his last 13, and five for his last 31, and still he is hitting .303/.412/.535 on the season. In 42 games, he has ten doubles, four triple and six home runs. Even during his 1-13 stretch over the last four games, he had five walks. Valencia is a good power hitting, extra base hit type of hitter. So I am incredibly impressed that he has 29 walks to counter his 30 strikeouts. After hitting .269/.395/.463 in April, he improved to .373/.443/.667 in May. He has been a very good hitter against lefties (.854 OPS), but even better against right-handed pitching (.980 OPS). When he came to the Twins, his glove was a question mark. Since then, he has worked incredibly hard and made himself into a better than average defender at the hot corner. Valencia is a very confident person and ball player. Having talked to him a few times, I think he believes that he could be playing in the big leagues right now. I completely agree with that. Right now, he is biding his time at AA while the Luke Hughes 3B experiment continues in Rochester. Hopefully that will end soon so that Valencia can get some time with the Red Wings. Then hopefully next spring he will be given every opportunity to win the Twins 3B job. More likely, we will see the Twins follow baseball’s newest trend and start him in the minor leagues and call him up around June 1^st to save a year of arbitration.

2009 Projection: should be playing 3B at Rochester soon.

Potential: big league 3B with power, defense

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#2 – Ben Revere – OF – 21 (5/3/88)

2009 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2007 out of Louisville, KY

The guy is hitting .342, fifty games into his Florida State League career, after hitting .388 in the Midwest League last season! How is he not #1 on this list? I struggled with it, no question. In April, he hit .296/.387/.358 (.754 OPS). In May, he hit .388/.430/.449 (.879 OPS). Hopefully June can be even better for the FSL All Star. So clearly Ben Revere can hit for batting average. He has established that. But what about some of those other things that have kept him from progressing more quickly. Does he walk enough? His Isolated Discipline this season is 0.066 which if pretty good but certainly not great if he is to become a prototypical, Denard Span type of leadoff hitter. He has always had a good strikeout to walk rate. In about 210 plate appearances this season, he has just eight extra base hits. The Twins keep saying that the power is there, but it hasn’t shown on the field yet. Sound familiar? Well, one person told me that his pop right now is to the opposite field and as he matures could develop into HR power. But he also has incredibly quick hands and can pull any fastball. His game-changing speed is apparently as advertised. It is what has helped him this year on defense where he has already made several terrific catches. He admits that he’s getting by now on raw speed and athleticism and still needs to work on improving his routes to fly balls. But that comes through time. Big picture here is that the Twins got a very good player. How good will be determined by how he improves in OBP and if and when he adds power. He is 22 for 32 in stolen base attempts, so he will need to work to improve that percentage. And there are still improvements that he can make on defense. And he is a tremendous person, humble and just seems to get it. I think that will help him throughout his career as well.

2009 Projection: could spend full season at Ft. Myers, but a midseason promotion has been earned.

Potential: great top of the order bat, 60+ steals

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

#1 – Aaron Hicks – OF – 19 (10/2/89)

2009 Team: Extended Spring Training

Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2008 out of Long Beach, CA

I know. Everyone wants Aaron Hicks to be in Beloit. I get that. Selfishly, that’s what I want to. I want to see how he would be doing in real games. Would he be performing to the level that Ben Revere did at Beloit a year ago? To expect that probably isn’t fair. Some fans forget the struggles of other first round, highly thought of hitters who went to Low A ball right away and really struggled (Parmelee, Plouffe, Benson, others). As much as I want to see him in Beloit, I am very excited to see what he can do in Elizabethton. How are the other high school hitters drafted in the first round and early supplemental picks performing to this point? Here’s the list:

Dft Name	Team	BA/OBP/SLG	2B -- 3B -- HR	BB -- K
#1 Tim Beckham	Rays	.291/.343/.413	9 -- 2 --3	14 -- 45
#3 Erik Hosmer	Royals	.267/.377/.398	12 -- 0 -- 3	29 -- 43
#6 Kyle Skipworth	Marlins	.182/.232/.326	5 -- 1 -- 4	9 -- 52
#16 Brett Lawrie	Brewers	.260/.335/.462	6 -- 4 -- 7	19 -- 33
#24 Anthony Hewitt	Phillies	Extended
#30 Casey Kelly	Red Sox	Extended	may pitch
#34 Zach Collier	Phillies	.229/.280/.371	12 -- 3 -- 0	13 -- 26

So as you can see, it’s a mixed bag and each prospect is different and develops at a different rate. What types of numbers would Hicks have if he were in Beloit? The fact that Hicks will be playing in Elizabethton rather than Beloit does not affect his long term potential in any way. His numbers last year indicate that he could hit for average and hit for power while taking a good number of walks without striking out much. He is known already as a very good defender with good speed and a very, very strong arm. None of that has changed. As much as I am frustrated by him not being in Beloit, it doesn’t change the fact that he is still, by a significant margin, the Twins top prospect. Now, let’s see how the rest of his season plays out and see if we still feel that way after the season!

2009 Projection: would still love to see him in Beloit OF, but likely CF for Elizabethton

Potential: future middle of the order bat, All-Star caliber

Could be in Minnesota in: 2013

So there you have it, my selections for the Top 10 Twins Prospects. What do you think? I would love your feedback and input. Who did I have too high, or too low? If you have any comments, opinions or suggestions, please feel free to Send me an e-mail, or leave your questions or comments here.

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