Wednesday, June 4, 2008
SethSpeaks Top 10 Twins Prospects
In case you missed it, I did post Tuesday Game Notes last night, so if you missed the updates, scroll down or click here when you're done.
Here you have it. It's the SethSpeaks.net Top 10 Twins Prospects. You've read through the reports on my choices for 41-50, #s 31-40., #21-30, and #11-20. I have to admit that a couple of these are surprises to me. I struggled with deciding who should be ahead of whom, and a lot of other things in making these determinations. People ask me what I use to determine these lists. Well, believe me, it isn't just one thing. Of course, I look at the statistics from 2008, but also from their entire pro career, I read scouting reports, I look at power, size, age, age to level of competition and many more things. I also ask people closer to these teams for their thoughts on what they see when they watch the affiliates play. And, in the end, I have seen now how the Twins system works for four or so years now. There are several players that you will notice that I am higher on than most. There are likely as many that I am not as high on as you. The reality is that there is no perfect formula or easy method for developing a prospects list. If we look at this list in five years, we will know a lot more about how I did. Of course, when I put together my post-season Top 50 Twins Prospects list in September, it is likely that it will look different again. That's the best part. But what this list does is highlights fifty Twins prospects. Some you have heard of and know a bit about. Others you may not have heard much about, if any. So, I am really happy to provide you with this list. Please take it for what it is. If you live in one of the cities that has a Twins affiliate, please feel free to e-mail me and let me know your thoughts on some of the players you have seen play. I certainly welcome the discussion. OK, that's enough background, right? Let's get to the list. So please e-mail me or leave Comments below. At the end, you will see a link where you can find a complete list of the Top 50 along with all of the comments from these five parts.
SethSpeaks Top 10 Twins Prospects
#
10
– Trevor Plouffe – SS – 21
2008 Teams: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2004 out of Crespi Carmelite H.S. (CA)
For the last couple of years, I have thought that Plouffe would have been better served by repeating a level, either Beloit or Ft. Myers. They kept pushing him up as there was no one really ahead of him at shortstop. Then last year, he was a doubles machine and played very well for New Britain. And now this is the year that he is repeating a level. There still isn't a good shortstop at the level ahead of him, but I also do not think that a second season at New Britain is a bad thing. Plouffe isn't dominating the level even this year. He is hitting a solid .276/.336/.418 with 13 doubles, three triples and three homers. I expect those numbers to go up over the second half of the season, and the thing I really would like to see from Plouffe is more consistency. He has hot streaks followed by cold streaks. He also has just seven errors to this point in the season which I think is very positive. He is known to have great range, great hands and a very strong arm. Plouffe will need to be added to the 40 man roster following this season, so there is absolutely no rush to promote him to the big leagues, or even to Rochester. The Twins can and should remain patient with him.
2008 Projection: a lot of SS in New Britain, maybe a late season AAA promotion
Potential: good glove, solid bat SS
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#
9 –
David Bromberg
– RHP – 20
2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: Twins 32nd round pick in 2005 out of Pacific Palisades (CA) HS
Bromberg is one of those guys who first appeared near the bottom of the Top 50 two years ago after his GCL debut. Last year, he jumped up quite a bit after a great year in Elizabethton where he was named the Appy League pitcher of the year. He has certainly been someone to watch since he signed, but one number was a little alarming, and that was the walk total. It is clearly something he and his coaches are certain to be working on. It has paid off already in Beloit this season. That said, it is still the one thing that he most needs to work on. He still is walking some, and he has a lot of three-ball counts. To continue moving up and become more dominant, he will have to become more efficient. Right now, he's got a good fastball, that sinks, and a very good curveball. After his excellent start last night, he is now 4-3 with a 4.60 ERA. In 62.2 innings, he still has too many walks (28), but he also has 73 strikeouts. In other words, there is plenty of room for improvement, but he is young, projectable (he's listed at 6-5, 241 pounds) has a strong arm and the stuff to keep moving up.
2008 Projection: Beloit rotation all year
Potential: better control would make him a potential #2 starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#
8
–
Kevin Mulvey – RHP – 23
2008 Team: Rochester Red Wings
Acquired: Traded to Twins with Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber and Deolis Guerra for Johan Santana in March 2008
Much like Kevin Slowey dominated AAA last year and needs to be in the big leagues learning and adjusting, Kevin Mulvey dominated AA in 2007 and needs to work through his adjustments at the AAA level. The International League has certainly been a challenge for Mulvey, and consistency seems to be the biggest issue. He began the season with four very good starts. Then four of his next five starts were not very good. His last three starts have been solid again, so hopefully he is making those adjustments and can carry them through the second half. So far this year, he is 3-7 with an ERA of 3.87. Known for his control, he has 25 walks in 61.1 innings, so that has to improve. However, he also has 54 strikeouts, which are more than I would have expected. Mulvey will definitely have to refine his control to be a big league starter in the next couple of years. As a 2006 draft pick out of college, the Twins don't have to even add them to their 40 man roster until after the 2009 season. So, they can, and should, be patient with him and make sure he figures things out.
2008 Projection: starting for Rochester all season
Potential: 4th starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#
7
– Alex Burnett –
RHP –
20
2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 12th round pick in 2005 from Huntington Beach, CA
Technically, I think we could say that Alex Burnett is the #4 starter for the Ft. Myers Miracle. Well, when your fourth starter is 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA and has a 1.33 WHIP, and he won't turn 21 until late July, you've got a pretty strong rotation, and you're going to have a team to compete for titles. In 58.2 innings, Burnett has walked just 17. But one concern is that he isn't finding a way to miss bats. In other words, he has given up 61 hits, and he has struck out just 26 batters. It is equally noteworthy that Burnett has allowed just one home run this season. Again, I acknowledge that I am higher on Burnett than I think most are. Scouts are less high on him because he is not very tall, barely six foot. I will remember that during Beloit's playoff run last year, it was Burnett, and not Tyler Robertson, who was named the team's Ace. Now, that of course doesn't mean anything by itself, but it tells me that his coaches and teammates really like having him on the mound, and want him on the mound in big games. Clearly he's got work to do, and he seems like a candidate to move up just one year at a time. He's actually young enough that if he needs to repeat AA (probably because of the Twins pitching depth), that will only help him long term.
2008 Projection: starter at Ft. Myers
Potential: potential to be a #3 starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#
6 –
Anthony Swarzak
–
RHP – 22
2008 Teams: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 2nd round pick in 2004 out of Ft. Lauderdale, FLI really thought that 2008 would be a big year for Swarzak. I thought he would start the season in New Britain and dominate the league as he did late last season and quickly be promoted to Rochester and be a guy we would be clamoring to see in Minnesota. But it hasn't been that easy for him. He is 3-2 with a 4.18 ERA. In 56 innings, he has 18 walks and 55 strikeouts. John Manual informed us during the winter that Swarzak really is a two-pitch pitcher and if he doesn't develop that third pitch, he won't become what we all hope. In my mind, he is pitching pretty well now with just two pitches, and I assume he is working on a third pitch, and maybe even a fourth. I think Swarzak could be very good. The strikeouts are encouraging. In April, he was 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts. In six May starts, his ERA jumped to 6.08. He just needs to have a big second half to earn a promotion late in this season.
2008 Projection: As of right now, I see no reason for him to move up, so he should stay in New Britain
Potential: #3-type starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#
5
–
Jeff Manship – RHP – 23
2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 14th round pick in 2006 out of Notre Dame University
After Manship threw a complete game, four hit shutout last night, I thought about moving Manship up the list even a little further. I stuck by my ranking. Manship is to the point now where he is completely dominating the Florida State League and has to be challenged by moving up to AA. He is now 7-2 with a 2.72 ERA. In 72.2 innings, he has walked just 20 and struck out 60. He mixes a good fastball with an ever-improving changeup that he has gained complete confidence in. And, he is best known for his curveball. So, he's got three pitches that project to be average or better at the big league level. Honestly, if he was already in AA, he would likely be a couple of spots higher than this on the list, but he doesn't make that decision. All he can control is how he does on the mound. I think that make up is another strong suit for Manship, so he has handled it perfectly, worked on the things he needed to, and he has pitched very well.
2008 Projection: Should move up to New Britain after the FSL All-Star game
Potential: #2 starter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#
4 –
Danny Valencia – 3B – 23
2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 19th round pick in 2006 out of Miami
As is the case with Jeff Manship, it is ridiculous that Danny Valencia is still toiling in Ft. Myers. I think that the Twins were wise to have Valencia start in Ft. Myers. He got off to a good start, then went in a slump for a week or so. Then he made some adjustments, and now it is time for that recall. I expect him to move up to New Britain right after the FSL All Star game as well. After a 3-3 game last night, Valencia is now hitting .347/.409/.554 with 19 doubles, three triples and five home runs. He also has driven in 44 runs. He doesn't walk a lot, but he also doesn't strike out terribly often. He can hit, hit for power, run a little bit. He can also field the 3B position very well and has a strong arm. In my mind, Valencia will do well playing 3B in New Britain and will really take off on prospect lists after playing in the Arizona Fall League. I think Mike Lamb and Matt Macri will be a nice platoon at 3B in 2008 and 2009. But I think that Danny Valencia will be ready to the be the Twins opening day 3B when the new ballpark opens in 2010.
2008 Projection: Might start back in FM, should move up to New Britain
Potential: big league corner infielder with power
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#3
– Ben Revere – OF –
20
2008 Team: Extended Spring Training, Beloit Snappers
Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2007 out of Louisville, KY
Many were surprised that the Twins had Ben Revere start the season in Extended Spring Training. I admit that I was. And yet with Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee repeating Beloit, it made some sense to just show some patience. I was getting very good reports on what he was showing in Ft. Myers, and then with a couple of injuries, Revere was promoted in late April. He has not stopped hitting since. Two or three hit games are common place. He gets on base and he goes. I have been told by some that he and Benson are both just about as fast as Carlos Gomez. Through last night, Revere was hitting .419/.463/.596 with 11 doubles, 5 triples, a homer and 20 RBI. He has walked 11 times while striking out just ten times, which you know I really like. He has stolen 16 bases (admittedly in 26 attempts). We have heard that he has a long way to go defensively. My initial thought was that he should just spend the entire season in Beloit. But his numbers have given the Twins brass a tough decision. Should they promote him? Well, consider this... Revere is just two months younger than Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee and many thought they should have moved up to Ft. Myers to start the season. Revere is not young for his high school draft class, so I think that if he's still hitting well in 2-3 weeks, a promotion is the right thing to do.
2008 Projection: roaming the Beloit outfield
Potential: great top of the order bat, 60+ steals
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#
2
–
Deolis Guerra – RHP – 19
2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Traded to Twins with Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber and Deolis Guerra for Johan Santana in March 2008
Well, as you know, age to level of competition is a big thing for me in prospect lists. Guerra turned 19 in April. I think from a development standpoint, he should be very happy to be with the Twins. They have many pitching prospects so they can afford to be patient with their top young pitchers. Now, Guerra is currently 6-1 as a starter with the Miracle, but that is not to say that he doesn't have a lot to work on. Primary among things to work on would be control. In just 55.1 innings, he has just 32 strikeouts, but more alarming are the 26 walks. That's more than he had all of 2008. That tells me that he should be able to correct the issue. Now, even with the walks, his ERA is just 4.23, and he is giving up less than a hit an inning. He is young. He is 6-5 and 200 pounds. He throws fairly hard already and should just keep adding some velocity. Reports indicate that the changeup will be his best pitch, which I think is exciting. If he can round it out by developing a more consistent breaking ball, he will be a special pitcher.
2008 Projection: starter at Ft. Myers
Potential: potential ace
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#
1
– Tyler Robertson – LHP –
20
2008 Team: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 3rd round pick in 2006 from Citrus Heights, CA
I think I surprised a lot of you last September when I named Robertson the Twins Top Prospect. Well, I think that I am a little surprised myself that he has performed as well as he has and is right back in the #1 spot this time around. So far this season, he has gone 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA. In 65.1 innings, he has given up 63 hits, walked 22 and struck out 58 strikeouts. That is a WHIP of 1.30. Now, his first start in May, he gave up five runs on 14 hits and a walk in five innings. Take that one start away and he has an ERA of 2.23 and a WHIP of 1.16. In his past three starts, he has given up just three runs over 22 innings. He is left handed. He is tall and strong. He has the pitches. He has the baseball background. He is still very young. Remember, he started the 2007 season at Extended Spring Training, but because of injury, he got promoted to Beloit. He pitched well, but in reality, he is already a year ahead of where he should be. So, as well as he has pitched, don't expect a promotion to AA New Britain. Not even with the Dodgers promoting their 20 year old lefty-throwing top prospect Clayton Kershaw to the big leagues already.
2008 Projection: starter at Ft. Myers
Potential: potential ace
Could be in Minnesota in: 2010
What do you think of the midseason Top 50 Twins prospects? How does it compare to your list?
That's it for now, but be sure to check back.
There will be several postings in the next couple of days. I have already
figured out my Top 5 Twins Hitters and Pitchers for May, but figured I should
get this prospect list finished first. Also, I will start posting my
Organizational Update on Wednesday night in preparation for the draft on
Thursday. So, be sure to stop by to comment and also to see if there is anything
new. As always, please feel free to
e-mail me.