**Please head over to The View from The Bleachers and vote in The World Series of Blogs! They have included SethSpeaks in the AL Central contenders.
Kirk Beller has been included on this site on numerous occasions. He has even written a few complete entries. Wednesday night, we got together via Instant Messaging and discuss the Twins, baseball, the draft, SABRmetrics and much more. Below you will find our transcript. I think it's very interesting, and we certainly hope you enjoy it. If you have any questions or comments, you can e-mail Seth or e-mail Kirk and ask us anything.
________________________________________________________________________________
Beller says:
i got the twins on in the background so i can stop and watch the mauer at bats, so i'm happy.
he has a purty swing.
SethSpeaks says:
It is sweet... Ha! After the Mauer AB, I have to take the garbage out... something in there STINKS!
SethSpeaks says:
Alrighty, let's start with something I consider pretty minor. What is your take on the Rick Helling situation?
Beller says:
I understand him wanting to walk, but I really just don't understand the timing. I mean, by all accounts he had failed to impress the scouts that showed up at his first AA start after the Twins told him they would grant his release if he wanted. His next couple of starts were pretty weak too. So you stick around through that, but you walk after: A. Greisinger has another weak start on Sunday, and B. you throw a 7-inning complete game shutout? I don't get it. It makes sense to me to say that you want to explore other options, but it doesn't make sense to me to quit that close to your goal. Don't know if the Twins are really losing out there though.
SethSpeaks says:
I agree... the Twins aren't losing anything. Greisinger certainly isn't great, but at the same time, Helling is no better. Personally, I would rather they give a guy like Matt Guerrier a chance.
Beller says:
Agreed.
SethSpeaks says:
I also don't understand the timing. Did he have to tell the coaching staff during Game 2? Couldn't it wait until after the game?
SethSpeaks
says:
OK, the other 'current' Twins topic has to do with Justin Morneau. What is your take on this?
Beller says:
Can't . . . type . . . blinded with . . . rage . . .
SethSpeaks says:
well put!
Beller says:
cripes. There was much gnashing of teeth at my house when I saw that Offerman was in the lineup tonight (Wednesday). I know he bats lefty and it's a righty on the mound, but come on!
SethSpeaks says:
I almost shut the game off!!!
Beller says:
I know it's been hashed out in a lot of the different outlets that guys like us check out, but it can't be said enough that this makes zero sense. I have no clue what Jose Offerman is still doing on this team. I think there are plenty of other guys that could benefit from those at bats more than a use-for-one-year veteran type player like Offerman. I can't figure out what he brings to this team anyway. Was he known for his leadership with other clubs? Has he ever even been to the post-season? Then there's Blanco. Personally, I can understand the Twins wanting him on the club, but he should be this season's version of Tom Prince, not a guy that catches so that we can get Morneau's unproductive bat out of the lineup. I know the Twins have a hang-up with the defensive play of their guys but come on! Lecroy at catcher costs you a run or two more than Blanco over a the course of the last couple of months, but provides scores more than that. Makes no sense to me.
That's a little off topic though. I bring those guys up because I don't understand how an up-and-coming guy like Morneau loses at-bats to these black holes in the lineup. I guess if you're not going to play him every day, he better go back to the minors so that he gets his work in.
It is disgusting though . . .
Beller says:
HOW ARE WE LOSING TO THE DEVIL RAYS AGAIN?
SethSpeaks says:
Lecroy is not a good catcher, but he's also not terrible. If he only catches once or twice a week, then his defense is fine. I'm right with you. Offerman makes no sense on the roster. Mike Ryan is fine as a pinch-hitter off the bench. I am in complete agreement that Justin Morneau should not sit on the Twins bench. He should be swinging. My point is that he should be hitting for the Twins because he is probably the best hitter in the Twins organization. He should be DHing, I don't care who it costs ABs.
I don't know. It's ridiculous!
Beller says:
The thing is, it doesn't have to cost Lecroy any real amount of at-bats. You let him spell Mientkiewicz at first one day a week, let him catch the first six innings of the game twice a week, and DH for Morneau two other times. Let's see, on a 6-game week, he's still starting four times, Morneau gets in for five games, and Mientkiewicz gets in for five. How hard is that to comprehend?
But, if we did that, we wouldn't have any room for Jose "DH-ing for the second night in a row?" Offerman.
SethSpeaks says:
I agree with you. My other point would be "why is Justin Morneau's defense such an issue?" Didn't they sign Mientkiewicz for three years? He's going to play 1B. So, Morneau should DH. I like your idea though. They all get their ABs.
Beller says:
Exactly, and you don't have to screw over Lecroy. Then we can make an educated decision in the offseason about what to do to clear up the logjam.
Beller says:
I like the phrase "an infield hit for Mientkiewicz".
SethSpeaks says:
I know. That's right up there with "an infield hit for Blanco or Lecroy"
SethSpeaks says:
OK, I really, really like Corey Koskie, but do you agree that he just looks pained? I mean, not Willie McGee-this is the last place I want to be- pained, but like it hurts for him to jog, swing, anything.
Beller says:
Everything about how he stands in the box looks painful. He gets the groin-thrust back stretch going and he looks like he's going to fall over. God bless him for doing just that though. I just got him in a trade with my brother in the league I run and I guarantee he's cursing and kicking his coffee table right now. In your face, Greg!
SethSpeaks says:
Ha! So, speaking of the offseason, do you think there is any chance Koskie is in a Twins uniform next year?
(Note to readers - Koskie just hit another Home Run, his 3rd in 2 games)
Beller says:
As for your question about him being in a Twins uniform next season--I'm not sure. I know he lives in the Twin Cities, and I'm pretty sure that he likes being a Twin, so I get the feeling that he'd be willing to sign for the old hometown discount if he got an offer.
SethSpeaks says:
I agree... I really do think he will be a Twin for at least another year. I do think he'll sign for a little less.
Beller says:
I don't know if it's a smart move for the Twins though. Like you mention, he seems awful brittle, and the trips to the DL seem to back that notion up. Since he's a personal favorite of mine, I'm going to say that I hope he's back next season with Cuddyer playing second.
SethSpeaks says:
Assuming health in the entire Twins roster, what would you ideal starting lineup be? (Include those on 40 man roster)
Beller says:
I love these kind of questions . . .
Beller says:
Ford LF, Mientkiewicz 1B, Mauer C, Morneau DH, Hunter CF, Koskie 3B, Jones RF, Cuddyer 2B, Bartlett SS (Of course I'm assuming the fully developed versions of Mauer, Morneau, and Bartlett.)
Beller says:
How about the official lineup of SethSpeaks?
Beller says:
I'm really starting to heart Lew Ford. In a good, platonic, hetero fan sort of way.
SethSpeaks says:
I would replace Ford with Stewart, but note that I think that Ford should also play 4-5 times a week between the three OF positions and DH. I'll go: Stewart LF, Mientkiewicz 1B, Koskie 3B, Hunter CF, Jones RF, Cuddyer 2B, Morneau DH, Mauer C, Bartlett SS. Pretty left-handed, huh?
Beller says:
You'll notice the conspicuous absence of Shannon Stewart in my lineup. What's your feeling on the signing of Stewart in the off-season?
SethSpeaks says:
Honestly? When the Twins got him from the Jays for Kielty, I thought
it was a terrible trade. I was proven very wrong. He was incredible
for the Twins last year.
However, I said right away after they re-signed him this winter that
it was a mistake. Why? Because of the Twins depth in the OF.
Essentially the team (Terry Ryan) chose Stewart over Jacque Jones.
For $6 million a year, the Twins could have signed LaTroy Hawkins
and used the rest for Jones' extension.
Stewart has had injuries throughout
his career. Don't get me wrong. I really like Stewart and think he
is a very good player. That said, OF was not a weakness of the Twins
team. What do you think?
Beller says:
Yeah, that's a good point. As much as I wish we didn't have him now though, I can't argue too much with Ryan signing him at the end of the season. As much as their stats in the minors showed that Cuddyer and Ford and Ryan and Resto might be able to take over, there has to be that part of your brain that is thinking that they're not proven major league quantities when you're considering how your team is going to look in the upcoming season. Combine that with the fact that a lot of people thought that Stewart was a legit MVP candidate and the number of hearts that explode from Ryan's head when he sees Stewart, and it's not a surprise that they signed him. There's that leadoff hitter mystique thing too. A lot of GMs think it's necessary to have a true leadoff type of guy. I don't know. Maybe I shouldn't say that I agreed with the signing, but I can say that I do understand what Ryan was thinking.
SethSpeaks says:
I agree... but I think Lew Ford showed last year a lot of quality leadoff-hitter tendencies. We could argue back and forth on this one all day. I think we both agree that Stewart is a great player when healthy and helps the team a lot. The Twins have too much OF depth and have other needs, but Ryan's infatuation with Stewart can be explained and understood.
Beller says:
True. I think it comes down to trust though when you're talking about these minor league guys, and it doesn't look like the Twins have a lot of faith in their own guys. Isn't that a little weird? You have one of the best farm systems and you refuse to let your players play?
SethSpeaks says:
You lead into a great point that we've discussed before. Justin Morneau will not get ABs from Gardy. Instead the likes of Offerman and Lecroy get them. It took the Twins 3+ years to give Cuddyer a decent chance, and he's only got it because of injuries. Look at Michael Restovich last year. Gardy likes going with guys he has seen before... well, and Mauer. Because of that, my hopeful Twins 2005 lineup is far different from what we know it will be. What is your hope for a 2005 Twins lineup?
Beller says:
Ichiro CF, Soriano 2B, Helton 1B, Rodriguez SS, Pujols RF, Rolen 3B, Beltran LF, Blalock DH, Posada C. How's that one for you?
SethSpeaks says:
yeah, that's a pretty decent lineup. I think Gardy could do well with that team.
Beller says:
Actually, I just did that because I think I kind of answered your question with the first lineup. I guess I'd like to see someone new playing short over Guzman--either Bartlett or a free agent or traded-for guy. I want Morneau playing every day, and I think that's going to happen because either Lecroy of Mientkiewicz will be gone. I'd like to see Koskie around still. I also think Jacque is gone after this season, so I'd have an outfield of Hunter, Ford, and Stewart with Kubel getting to spell each of them once a week.
SethSpeaks says:
Here is my hope for the Twins 2005 lineup:
Beller says:
I'm going to guess that Luis Maza is going to be in there.
SethSpeaks says:
Ha! No Maza, maybe in another year or so.
SethSpeaks says:
Lew Ford LF, Doug Mientkiewicz 1B, Joe Mauer C, Torii Hunter CF, Justin Morneau DH, Michael Cuddyer 2B, Corey Koskie 3B, Jason Kubel RF, Jason Bartlett SS
SethSpeaks says:
I just think… what is the use of having such a strong minor league system if you're not going to use it?
Beller says:
You won't get any argument here.
SethSpeaks says:
OK, 2004 Twins questions:
SethSpeaks says:
Who has been the Twins MVP so far?
Beller says:
I guess I'd narrow it down to three candidates. Radke has been sharp, Nathan has been near unhittable, and Jones has really picked up his game. I gotta say Jones, with honorable mention to Lew Ford and those other two guys.
How bout you?
SethSpeaks
says:
I'd go with Lew Ford at this point of the season. First, since he was called up in the season's second week, he has not had a day off. He doesn't quite have the power numbers of Jones, Hunter, Koskie, but he has been productive wherever he has been in the lineup. He has played all 3 OF positions. Most of the others have missed too much time.
Beller says:
You make a compelling case. Now tell me who to vote for in November . . .
SethSpeaks says:
Jacque Jones will be the Twins MVP. He will have the best numbers, most productivity.
Beller says:
Danny Baez just buzzed Ford!
SethSpeaks says:
Yeah, I saw that... JERK!
SethSpeaks says:
How about best pitcher?
Beller
says:
As for top pitcher, I have no problem giving the nod to Nathan over Brad Radke.
SethSpeaks says:
I agree on the pitchers
Beller says:
Worst pitcher goes to Balfour in my book. He looks twitchy and nervous out there.
SethSpeaks says:
Who has been the biggest disappointment (multiple answers OK)
Beller says:
It's hard to call Rivas a disappointment when I expected so little from him, but he's failed to achieve even a modest amount of success. The tandem of Terry Ryan/Gardy could get the award though for their stupid handling of the Morneau situation.
SethSpeaks says:
You're right about both of those things, but to me, the biggest disappointment has been Johan Santana. He is nowhere near where he was a year ago, and I don't know why. Kyle Lohse is a very close second.
Beller says:
Good call! I don't know why I didn't think of either of those guys. Lohse hurts bad because I really thought he was going to get a lot better.
SethSpeaks says:
I wouldn't say I expected huge things from Johan, just solidness and consistency. I really thought Lohse would be a stud this year, and maybe he still will be
Beller says:
He seems to have his head lodged pretty far up his rectum though. It's like he's thinking out there too much or something. This is of course, Kirk Beller, pitching coach speaking.
SethSpeaks says:
I just think Lohse is trying to throw too hard, to strike out too many hitters
Beller says:
Does it seem like he's fallen in love with that change-up a little too much too? I don't know. I thought Frank Viola had some good comments when he was in the booth last night. He talked about a pitching coach telling him to just pump strikes in there for one game. He said he gave up a pair of solo shots and worked into the 8th and came out trusting his stuff. Seems like an outing like that might help Lohse.
SethSpeaks says:
I try not to listen to Dick and Bert too much, but I did hear those comments by Viola. He said he gave up like 2 solo homers and won the game 5-2 or something. He learned his stuff is pretty good. I think that would be good for Lohse, but I don't know if he really knows where the ball is going right now
SethSpeaks says:
Next question... Biggest surprise.
Beller says:
Nathan or Ford I guess. I'd like to say that I knew all along that Nathan would be a stud, but I had the same concerns as everyone else. As for Ford, I didn't understand all the hype, and I really wondered about how much we should pin our hopes to a 27-year old career minor leaguer. I love being proven wrong on stuff like that.
SethSpeaks says:
Both of them have been great, but I really did feel they would be very good. I'm more surprised by Ford's playing time than how well he's done given the chance
Beller says:
Yeah, good call on the playing time. The Twins like to reward good rookie play with a demotion.
SethSpeaks
says:
My choice for biggest surprise has been Joe Roa. We know he was probably the last pitcher to make the roster, and that may have even been because of Balfour's injury. But to me, he has earned his job in the bullpen. Actually, Aaron Fultz has been pretty good too, but we knew he was a solid LOOGY too.
SethSpeaks says:
OK, the draft starts next Tuesday. The Twins have 3 picks between 20 and 25, 5 picks in the first 39 and six picks in the first 61. What would you do with the picks?
Beller says:
Use my magic wand (the same one that gave the Twins the all-star lineup) and make it NFL rules where I package a couple of those picks for one of the top couple of spots. Then I draft Stephen Drew or Chris Nelson.
Beller says:
If I'm stuck picking at those spots though . . . I take a chance on one of the highly rated high school pitchers, grab a more polished college starter if one is available, and try to take a stud bat in the first round. I guess I'd use the majority of those picks on pitchers and hope that a few of them pan out. Maybe two bats. I hear the Twins like that Plouffe kid. That would be pretty cool.
SethSpeaks says:
I wish draft picks could be traded... but imagine the damage that Scott Boras could do with that?!?!?
Beller says:
Oh, I know. I'm not sure how he'd work it, but you know he'd have a team of heartless jerkwad lawyers working around the clock to screw up the world of baseball through traded picks. That man has devils inside him.
SethSpeaks says:
I agree... I wish we could find out more about these draft picks. Neyer discusses why the draft should NOT be televised, and it makes sense, but I know I would watch it.
Beller says:
I had never given any thought to his first point that the agents would use the coverage to drive up prices, but he's absolutely right. That's not cool. His second point I don't agree with. People like you and me care about that draft. The only way to get more people caring about the draft is to televise it. I know the concern with the NFL draft when they started televising it was that it would go unnoticed. We all know what a circus that's become. It just seems like baseball goes of their way to make sure we stay in the stone age.
SethSpeaks says:
ok, any other topics you'd like to cover?
Beller
says:
I see that your IM picture is a rather choice picture of Leann Tweeden. Given a choice, would you select her, Jessica Alba, Alyssa Milano, or 'other' in a hot chick fantasy draft?
SethSpeaks says:
Alyssa Milano in a second. That said, Josh Beckett, despite the blisters, is a LUCKY man!
Beller says:
I might have to agree with you there. The trailer for "Honey"
actually made me want to go rent that one and watch it with the
sound off though.
SethSpeaks says:
Honey is actually a very good movie!!!
Beller says:
Sorry man, Honey just doesn't look like it would be my style. I think I've explained my taste in music before. I'm pretty sure i'd want to jam a screwdriver in my ear by the end of the flick.
SethSpeaks says:
oh, I love that music, and Mekhi Phifer is in it too, and he's great! It was the first time that I fully understood Gleeman's infatuation with Jessica Alba!!!
Beller says:
Expert Twins post-game analysis from . . . Mark Gubicza?
SethSpeaks says:
I don't get Minnesota Sports Tonight. Are they is LA? Mark Gubicza is discussing the Twins. Pooh Richardson discussing the Wolves? I don't get it.
Beller says:
Well, don't get me wrong, I'm sure that Gubicza knows his stuff and is a fun guy to hang out with. I'd just think you'd get a former Twins great on there. They've had Roy Smalley on there as a guest before. How about him instead?SethSpeaks says:
Yeah, I don't get it. That's what makes me think they're just doing the show from LA.
Beller says:
I'm pretty sure you're right. They've been kind enough to put Inga Hammond on there a couple of times though--I heart her quite a bit. She's from Minnesota, right?
Beller says:
What's with Bert holding a baseball every time he talks?
SethSpeaks says:
I noticed that last night. I don't get it.
Beller says:
Well, he's probably earned the right to be quirky and weird if he wants.
SethSpeaks says:
Maybe it's just in case Terry Ryan is watching and he wants to take over the Twins 5th starter spot.
Beller says:
I think that even at 50-whatever, he could give Greisinger a run for his money.
SethSpeaks says:
I don't disagree
Beller says:
Who do you think goes first in the draft on Tuesday? Who would you take first in the draft?
SethSpeaks says:
Sounds like Stephen Drew. I don't understand that. Stephen Drew is a college SS, which means he could be up within a year or so. The Padres have Khalil Greene at SS. Granted, they could move one of them to 2B, but the Padres have Josh Barfield at 2B in AA. I guess I think that pitching is what wins in the majors. Between Weaver, Verlander and Neimann, I guess I'd take one of them.
Beller says:
I like the idea of taking Drew. I don't know--I guess I just believe in that statement that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. They all seem to get injured in the minors because to get to the point where they're noticed enough to get taken that early, they have to abuse their arms. Swinging a bat doesn't seem to take as much of a toll.
SethSpeaks says:
There is certainly a risk in taking a college pitcher because the really good ones are usually over-used in college. (See Ben McDonald)
Beller says:
The funny thing is that I hear friends talk about who they'd take, and how team X would be stupid to grab this player, and it makes me laugh (even though I'm worse about this than anything else). I catch myself saying things like 'I like Neimann a lot' and realize I have no basis for making that statement other than what I read in other places. Makes me feel like a dork. No need to comment on the dork thing.
Beller says:
You gotta get pitchers from somewhere though, and if you never take a chance on them, you never get guys like prior or wood or beckett or whoever.
SethSpeaks says:
and just from Prior and Wood, you see that one is a HS pitcher and one is a college pitcher. It's a total crapshoot in my opinion
Beller says:
When was the last time we (the Twins) had a pitcher that had his name mentioned in the same breath as the words 'Cy Young Award'?
SethSpeaks says:
The Twins? Frank Viola probably. Maybe Allan Anderson?
Beller says:
I was thinking him or maybe John Smiley. Didn't he win 20 in '92?
SethSpeaks says:
something like that.
SethSpeaks says:
How did Brad Radke win 20 games in '96 on such a bad team. That's a pretty underrated statistic in Radke's career when you really think about it.
Beller says:
he was 16-9 with a 3.21 while throwing 241 innings. (smiley that is)
SethSpeaks says:
yeah, not bad for Midre Cummings and Denny Neagle
Beller says:
Yeah, good call. It just doesn't seem like we've never had that many dominant pitchers.
Beller says:
You know, I wonder if there's some room to take advantage of the moneyball phenomenon. I mean, if you've got four or five clubs that will refuse to take the highly rated high school pitchers, maybe you can snag a really good arm late in the first round because teams are ruling guys like that out altogether.
SethSpeaks says:
hey, I’m going to ask two more questions, things we've discussed before, and feel free to go off/rant/speak your mind, ok?
Beller says:
I love to rant. Hit me.
SethSpeaks says:
Well, speaking of the Moneyball thing... what is your general thought on the whole SABRmetric, stat-based phenomenon?
Beller says:
Dude, I want to say that I'm anti-sabr, but I'm starting to realize that it would be more accurate to describe myself as that guy that's always kinda agreed with the traditionalist side of things, but is intrigued by the ideas that these guys are throwing out there.
Beller says:
I mean, numbers are such a great tool, and baseball more than any other sport lends itself to detailed statistical analysis. I think what people lose sight of is that the numbers don't give a definite answer, they show us probabilities.
SethSpeaks says:
well put
Beller says:
I think we've talked about how we see a lot of the writing out there in the blogger community as arrogant. The feeling a guy like me gets is that you've got these people that have immersed themselves so far in the numbers that they don't seem to derive any enjoyment from the actual on-the-field game any longer. That's when I want to call someone a nerd, because they don't get the point of the whole thing.
SethSpeaks says:
that's actually my final question... what are your general thoughts on the baseball blogging world at this time?
Beller says:
I've gone from fascinated, to bored, to annoyed, to just not reading them any longer. A lot of what I was reading was self-congratulating elitist crap. I guess it's to be expected. When you're immersed in this little subculture that is constantly analyzing the game, you're bound to see people starting to think of themselves as experts on their particular team. That's fine, but too often these people seem to dismiss other opinions or generally held notions as not having any validity. That's not fair, and it's not conducive to good scholarly discussion. I guess I don't see what's wrong with me looking at a statistical analysis and disagreeing with its findings.
SethSpeaks says:
nothing wrong with that. To me, if that's what SABRmetrics is intended to do, it's great. But, it is just another way to look at what has happened and predict what could happen. It has little to do with what happens in an individual game.
Beller says:
You know what I want to see in a blog? A person that has the ability to say 'Wow, I was dead wrong on that one. My GM/Manager is a genius'. But you never see that. It seems like the trend is to say 'I told you so' when a prediction goes right, and to omit any mention of that prediction when one ends up being dead wrong. It's absurd.
Beller says:
Totally off the subject--I need to see 'Dodgeball' and I'm growing a moustache like the one Stiller is sporting in the ad.
SethSpeaks says:
Stiller is hilarious. I don't know if that movie looks good or not, but I'll be sure to watch it.
Beller says:
Dude, that was a rather toned down version of the rant that I usually would deliver. I left out all of the f-words that I would usually include just in case you decide to include that on what you post.
Beller says:
I don't know man. I would be more down with the whole blog thing if it stayed true to the idea of scholarly discussion. It's no one's fault that it doesn't though. I mean, if I had a blog and was answering feedback, I'd probably write long emails to people who agreed with me, and I'd probably call the people that disagree with me idiots. It's sorta human nature. Or at least Beller nature. There's the Beller way, and the wrong way.
SethSpeaks says:
I don't disagree... but I try to show that I'm a moron, I'm a fan who's just writing what I see at a time.
Beller says:
Which is why I still read your blog--you're a moron.
SethSpeaks says:
and proud of it! Ha!
Beller says:
Nah, there's never a 'i'm right, and here's why' tone in what you write. You're constantly asking for reader interaction and saying that you could be totally screwed up.
SethSpeaks says:
cuz I usually am! Ha!
Beller says:
well, then we're both screwed up since 99% of the time I agree with you.
Beller says:
Sounds good. I'm going to go and do my best to have a dream of Jessica Alba and Alyssa Milano wrestling in a kiddie pool full of chocolate syrup.
And on that note, we called it good. So again, it is always fun talking baseball, particularly about my favorite team, the Minnesota Twins. Sure, sometimes I get really frustrated by some of the things that happen with the team (the Morneau thing, for one!), but I still love discussing them. I know Kirk does, and many of you do too. So again, please feel free to e-mail Seth or e-mail Kirk and we'll be sure to get back to you.
Thanks, and have yourself a great weekend!