Monday, June 2, 2008
SethSpeaks Top 50 Twins Prospects
Part 4 - 11-20
I'm back with Part 4 of the SethSpeaks Top 50 Twins Prospects list. First we looked at my choices for 41-50, then #s 31-40., then on Saturday we listed prospects #21-30. Today we will be looking at Prospects 11-20. For thoughts on the Twins/Yankees games the last couple of days as well as the Twins affiliates, scroll down or click here. Again, I'll be at the Twins game tonight, so I probably won't post the Top 10 prospects until Wednesday. Let's get to the list. So please e-mail me or leave Comments below.
SethSpeaks Top 50 Twins Prospects
#
20
– Juan Portes – IF/OF – 22
2008 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 15th round pick in 2004 out of Malden, Mass., HS
Portes was drafted late, but there were other reasons why he lasted so long. He has always been able to hit a little bit. He just hasn't had a consistent position. This year, his second in Ft. Myers, he has primarily played in the outfield, usually left field. I think that keeping Portes in Ft. Myers for a second year makes a lot of sense. He was good, but not great last year. His numbers are very much similar to what they ended up being last year. Hopefully what that means is that he will improve them in the second half and his season will look better. In his last seven games, he is 12 for 29 (.414) with three doubles and a homer. Again, he can hit, and he will hit. There is some chance that he will move up to New Britain, but I really believe it would be best for him just to finish off the whole season with the Miracle and get better with the glove and the bat.
2008 Projection: likely remain in the Ft. Myers outfield
Potential: potential solid bat
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#
19 –
Brock Peterson – 1B – 24
2008 Team: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 49th round pick in 2002 out of Chehalis (WA) high school
Part of what made Brock Peterson so intriguing following his 2007 season was the change he made in the second half at New Britain. He went from striking out a lot, with few walks, to walking more than he struck out in the season's second half. Although I believed he was ready for AAA, the Twins sent him back to repeat AA (as he had repeated Ft. Myers). Peterson has certainly had his ups and downs this spring already, but his 17 walks and 45 strikeouts in 199 at bats are both disappointing. We can hope for a similar second half to last year. I would also like to see some consistent power. I still believe he has a chance, but he needs to regain that plate discipline.
2008 Projection: 1B/DH in Rochester, could move up to Rochester for some time
Potential: big league bat, could DH
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#18 – Rene Tosoni – OF – 21
2008 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 36th round pick in 2005 out of Chipola College
It is so unfortunate that Rene Tosoni broke his leg earlier this month because he was really impressing to that point in the season. Consider, he was hitting .325/.430/.452. So, he was hitting for average. He was taking great at bats and walks. He even had a little extra base pop. Most impressive, however, in a season in which many prospects are repeating their level from last year, Tosoni had basically skipped a level and was still successful. Last year, he was one of the best hitters in the Appalachian League. When they won the championship, much thanks to him, he played in two games for Beloit during the regular season before being a starter on their run to the Midwest League championship series. He is a natural hitter. He is a very good outfielder with a strong arm. Hopefully Tosoni's leg will heal quickly and he can get back on the field yet this season.
2008 Projection: hopefully getting back to the Ft. Myers outfield
Potential: good all around outfielder
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#
17 –
David Winfree
– 3B – 22
2008 Teams: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 13th round pick in 2003 out of Virginia Beach (VA) H.S.Some may think that I am ranking Winfree too high by placing him here. In his second season at New Britain, he is hitting just .224/.293/.434. His OPS is very close to what it ended at a year ago. But last year, he got to that point by being very good in the second half. I expect Winfree to again have a very good second half. But what he has done, in terms of power and production, so far this season also helps him get to this level. He has 11 doubles and 10 home runs already. Also, he just has a knack for driving in runs. It's uncanny, and that simply can't be ignored forever. He has cut down on his strikeouts, which is big. Remember also that he is learning a new defensive position, RF. He has several assists already. Finally, if people still believe in Chris Parmelee, and they certainly should, Winfree is less than two years older than Parmelee and two levels more advanced. When Winfree was in Beloit, he was the Twins minor league player of the year. I think Winfree still has a great chance of being a productive big league hitter.
2008 Projection: should stay in New Britain the rest of the season
Potential: Potential power hitting big league hitter
Could be in Minnesota in: 2010
#1
6
–
Brian Duensing – LHP – 25
2008 Teams: Rochester Red Wings
Acquired: Twins 3rd round draft pick in 2005 out U of Nebraska
Duensing had an excellent 2007, pitching in both New Britain and Rochester, and then heading off to pitch for Team USA in the World Cup. In fact, like Kevin Slowey the year before, Duensing was the starting pitcher in the championship game that the US team won. 2008 has not been as successful for Duensing to this point. He hasn't pitched as poorly as his 2-5 record would indicate, but not much better either. His ERA is 4.43. His WHIP is 1.33. I have been told, and it has been clear in box scores, that the problem has been one inning. Not one really bad inning on the year, which can affect the numbers of a reliever significantly, but one bad inning in most of his starts. He has a chance to be a solid back of the rotation starter and should get a chance to do that down the road. He will need to be added to the 40 man roster following this season, so in reality the Twins have 3+ years to figure out if he is a starter or a lefty reliever. He doesn't walk many, but he doesn't strike out many at all, so I'm thinking lefty specialist... which of course opens up the possibility of a Tom Glavine-like career, right?
2008 Projection: starting in Rochester for the whole season, possible September call up
Potential: good #4 pitcher
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#1
5 –
Erik Lis
– DH – 24
2008 Team: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 9th round pick in 2005 out of U. of Evansville
Erik Lis can flat-out hit. That is the sentence I used last fall. I think it is an overly used phrase, but I think it is quite appropriate for Lis. I was a little surprised when Lis started very slowly with the Rockcats. In April, he hit just .202/.264/.321. In May, he hit .360/.405/.600 with 18 doubles and two homers in 100 at bats. Simply put, that is remarkable! I have stated several times that he is a doubles machine. Expect more of the same in the second half. I expect that Lis will remain with the Rockcats throughout the season, unless there is a huge need with the Twins. Really the lone negative with Lis is his defense, and I have been told her works very hard at it. Fortunately, the Twins are an American League team and have the DH. The prospect of Lis being ready within the next two seasons may help the Twins determine other roster situations and contracts.
2008 Projection: DH (maybe some LF or DH) at New Britain
Potential: big league bat, could DH
Could be in Minnesota in: 2009
#
14
– Chris Parmelee – OF/1B –
home run, strikeout or walk guy in the big leagues2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2006 out of Chino Hills (CA) High School
The Twins top draft pick in '06 was sent back to Beloit for a second season, the goal for him to take a step forward from his first season in the Midwest League. Last year, he ended the season batting .239/.314/.414 with with 23 doubles, five triples and 15 home runs. This year, he is sitting at .219/.382/.458 with nine doubles, two triples and eight home runs. In other words, he is doing what he did in 2007, just to better levels. He isn't hitting for average at all, but he gets on base a lot and is hitting for even more power. Parmelee is really looking like a guy the Oakland A's of recent years would have loved! Actually, he is striking out even more. Last year, he struck out once every 3.6 plate appearances. This year, he is striking out more than once every 3.2 plate appearances. I struggle with where to place Parmelee because being able to make contact at the low levels should not be this difficult, even for a top level prospect and yet, the power production is there. It will be very important for him to have a strong second half.
2008 Projection: playing RF and 1B in Beloit all year
Potential:
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
#
13
–
Luke Hughes – 3B/2B/CF – 2
2008 Team: New Britain Rockcats
Acquired: Twins 1st round pick in 2006 out of Chino Hills (CA) High School
Clearly Luke Hughes is the prospect to move furthest up the list for Twins prospects this year. Clearly, he has been the best performing Twins prospect of the 2008 season. Seemingly it came out of nowhere in that I have never had him on a Top 50 Twins prospect list in four years worth of lists. Even though he was an All Star in the Eastern League last year, it was as a utility player, so I didn't make a lot of of it. After toiling in the lower levels of the minor leagues from 2003 through 2006, he moved to New Britain for the 2007 season. He did well for the season, he hit .283/.356/.438 with 29 extra base hits including nine homers. But his fast start this year is incredible. He is currently hitting .339/.411/.613 with nine doubles, three triples and 12 home runs. Coming from Australia makes the fact that he struggled for several years while developing make sense, but this? Check out these splits... against lefties this year, Hughes is hitting .451/.533/.745 with three doubles and four homers. He has nine walks and seven strikeouts. Against righties, he is hitting .295/.361/.568 with six doubles, three triples and eight homers. He has just 14 walks to go with 35 strikeouts. Hughes missed several games because of a hamstring injury. It has been rumored that, if not for the injury, Hughes would have been promoted to Rochester last week instead of Felix Molina. He is ready to move up and really should. It will be interesting to see how he adapts to AAA.
2008 Projection: playing 3B, CF, other for Rochester within the next couple of weeks.
Potential: likely utility infielder/outfielder who won't hurt the Twins if he has to start for an extended period.
Could be in Minnesota in: 2008
#12 – Wilson Ramos – C – 20
2008 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle
Acquired: Twins 39th round pick in 2004 out of Palm Beach Community College
The Twins don't have many catchers in their system that play basically every day. At Low A Beloit, they actually have three catchers who are all getting equivalent playing time. But Wilson Ramos is one who plays every day. When he isn't catching, he is generally the team's DH. Reports are that Ramos can hit and that he can also do a fine job behind the plate and has a strong arm. I am told that he is a hard worker and there are several things that he still has a ways to go to get to the levels he would need to compete for a big league job. Like you've noticed with several others on these lists, the Ramos of April was not as good as the Ramos of May, and prospect list makers who are high on Ramos like to believe that the trend will continue in coming months. In April, he hit just .203 with one homer. In May, he hit .257 but had seven home runs. He is showing the power. I would like to see him hit for some average as well. He could be higher on this list and many will likely have him higher on their lists. I'm just still not convinced. For me, there are just a few question marks remaining.
2008 Projection: spending the season in Ft. Myers catching and DHing
Potential: good hit DH, and a catcher who could move Mauer
Could be in Minnesota in: 2010
#1
1 –
Joe Benson – OF–
2008 Team: Beloit Snappers
Acquired: Twins 2nd round pick in 2006 out of Joliet (IL) High School
Like Chris Parmelee, Joe Benson is back at Beloit for the second straight year. In 2007, he was a bit over his head the first half of the season but got better throughout the year. Benson struggled again this April, but his OPS in May jumped by .160 points, from .651 to .811. In every way, he improved in May. His batting average was up 40 points, but more importantly, his slugging percentage jumped. He went from six extra base hits in April to 14 extra base hits in May. He walked the same about, but although he still struck out way too much, he did cut down that rate a bit. Obviously that is something that will be a work in progress and won't be fixed overnight. The goal for Benson (and every player, of course) is to improve each month. If Benson does that, he will be ready for Ft. Myers next year and will have the type of numbers that will impress. If this list were based solely on potential and athleticism and ceiling, I think Benson would be as high as anyone on the list. His speed, size, strength, arm and ability to take some walks are pretty impressive already. His ability to make more contact will be what takes him to that next level.
2008 Projection: Should spend the rest of the year in Beloit
Potential: a 30/30 type of hitter, with a gold glove
Could be in Minnesota in: 2011
That's it for today! What do you think of #s 11-20?