Friday, June 1, 2007

MAY GRADES

Good morning everybody! Tonight is the night... Kevin Slowey makes his big league debut against the A's and 9:05!

 

As we now enter June, it is time to look at back how the Twins players performed in May. Of course, my grades are mine, and you are certainly welcome to agree or disagree. I just think it is interesting to look at the information for what it is, numbers from a small part of the season. Although it covers 27 games, that is still a small sample size. I gave grades to 31 players. I couldn't give any F's. I handed out 11 A's, 1 B, 12 C's and seven D's.  


So, let's take a look at the players and see how they did in the season's first month. Be sure to make your comments known in the Comments:

 

THE PITCHERS

THE STARTERS

SCOTT BAKER

(3 Starts, 16.2 Innings, 1-0 with a 5.94 ERA, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts, 1.56 WHIP, .356 Opponent Average, 5.4 K/9)

One spectacular start. One decent start. One horrible start. The team needs to stand by him. They need to fill him with confidence. He can do it, he just needs to believe it. He's too good for AAA, and I'm not yet ready to call him a AAAA guy. He will be good. I hope it is with the Twins.

May Grade: C-

 

BOOF BONSER

(6 Starts, 36.2 Innings, 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA, 14 walks, 38 strikeouts, 1.36 WHIP, .329 Opponent Average, 9.3 K/9)

April was a month that made many, myself included, wonder if he might be sent back to Rochester at one point. Patience and hard work made May an excellent month. The improvement in his curveball from even April to May has been tremendous. He is officially a strikeout pitcher. He is a bulldog, by baseball definitions. Obviously bringing down that opponent batting average would be one thing to work on, but this is a great month, and something to build on for the rest of the year.

April Grade: C+

May Grade: A-

 

RAMON ORTIZ

(6 Games, 5 starts, 22.1 Innings Pitched, 0-3 with a 10.48 ERA, 5 walks, 10 strikeouts, 2.01 WHIP, .409 Opponent Average, 4.0 K/9)

Any month in which you go from an "A" to the bullpen can't be good. As good as the results of his April were, the deeper statistical analysts looked at his peripheral numbers and knew it couldn't last. It didn't. Ortiz became Sidney Ponson-like in May. Very hittable, lots of runs. Very short starts. His $3.1 million contract meant a move to the bullpen, rather than the same fate as Ponson.

April Grade: A

May Grade: D-

 

SIDNEY PONSON

(3 Starts, 16.1 Innings Pitched, 1-2 with a 4.96 ERA, 8 walk, 11 strikeouts, 1.65 WHIP, .382 Opponent Average, 6.1 K/9)

Well, Ponson got his million dollars. Clearly Ponson did the work to put himself in a good position. He got himself in shape. He just didn't have it anymore. Fastball too soft and too straight. Not exactly great secondary pitches. Incredibly hittable. However, he was actually much improved from April to May, it had just been long enough and the move to Scott Baker had to be made.

April Grade: D-

May Grade: D+

 

JOHAN SANTANA

(5 Starts, 33.0 Innings Pitched, 3-2 with a 2.73 ERA, 8 walks, 42 strikeouts, 1.09 WHIP, .273 Opponent Average, 11.5 K/9)

Johan had his April, and his May was much better. Just to think, he will continue to get better and better as the season goes forward in the season. The strikeouts were up. The WHIP and ERA were down. He is giving up a lot of homers this year though. I'm not too worried!

April Grade: B

May Grade: A-

 

CARLOS SILVA

(5 Starts, 30.2 Innings Pitched, 1-4 with a 5.28 ERA. 8 walk, 8 strikeouts, 1.34 WHIP, .321 Opponent Average, 2.4 K/9)

Silva's last start was a nice, well needed, inning-eating start. But other than that, it was a bad month for Carlos. If he had done this in April, he likely would have been in the bullpen awhile ago. So, June now becomes a very important month for Silva as Garza continues to pitch well in Rochester.

April Grade: B-

May Grade: C+

 

THE BULLPEN

(Repeat from Last Month to explain new, made-up stat) - With the bullpen, I have been struggling with what these typical numbers mean. I think some of the numbers are important, but not all. Inherited Runners affect ERA, but not always in a good way. So ERA is meaningless with this few innings. So, what I did is went through the box scores and game logs of the Twins 27 May games and gave each reliever in each game a plus (for a positive outing) or a minus (for a negative outing). I am going to introduce a stat for this report just called Reliever Efficiency. It is simply a measure of quality relief efforts to total relief efforts. If this formula were to be more publicized, I think it would be good, but I think that there are a lot of variables about what constitutes a quality relief outing. How do Inherited runners affect that? How about a shutout inning with two hits and a walk? (Nathan got a save doing just that in May) Is that a quality outing? How about a guy who, in a game where the Twins got down early provided 4 innings of two run ball to eat up innings? How about recording a save, but giving up two runs? Dennys Reyes is really the guy that made me think about this topic. He had the one game that jumped his ERA to something like 15.00. Because of limited innings, it takes forever for his ERA to drop to a respectable level. But, if he just continues to get the job done when he continues to be asked to, that number comes down eventually. The definition of "Quality Relief Appearance" is up for debate, but for today, I just did this with my opinions. This sounds like a posting all to its own, but that may be for another day, so you'll just have to go with my opinions.

 

CARMEN CALI

(2 Games, 2.0 Innings Pitched, 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 1 walks, 1 strikeouts, 1.00 WHIP, Opponent Average .250, 4.5 K/9)

Cali had previous big league experience in 2004 and 2005 with the St. Louis Cardinals. Those times didn't go so well. Cali is up because of the injury of Glen Perkins. It's just two appearances, so of course we can't make a lot out of it, but it is good for him, and good for the Twins. I'm not saying Cali is good, but I would say he is no worse than Dennys Reyes. Cali's 'Reliever Efficiency' was 100% (2-2).

May Grade: A

 

JESSE CRAIN

(8 Games, 6.1 Innings Pitched, 0-0 with a 4.26 ERA, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts, 1.74 WHIP, Opponent Average .375, 7.1 K/9)

Crain's 'Reliever Efficiency' was 62.5% (5-8). His numbers definitely aren't good, and they were actually helped by giving up six runs that were ruled unearned. But, the fact is the Crain was hurt, and that definitely affected him. He is now having surgery and will miss the rest of the season. The hope is that he can be ready for spring training next season. His first four May appearances were good ones (and 5 of his first 6). Crain has been a great reliever for the Twins and it will be important to have him back.

April Grade: D

May Grade: D

 

JULIO DEPAULA

(3 Games, 2.0 Innings Pitched, 0-0, 31.50 ERA, 5 walks, 1 strikeouts, 6.00 WHIP, .722 Opponent Average, 4.5 K/9)

DePaula made his first appearance, after being recalled to replace Crain, against the Cleveland Indians. He looked incredible with his fastball/slider combination. After that, he had two really, really bad outings. He gave up seven in 2/3 of an inning, and then he walked the two batters he faced in his other game. DePaula will be fine. He was not ready when he was called up. He needs to spend the rest of the season at Rochester, and then compete next spring for a spot in the bullpen. His 'Reliever Efficiency' was 33%

May Grade: D

 

MATT GUERRIER

(13 Games, 18.0 Innings Pitched, 1-2, 1.50 ERA, 5 walks, 16 strikeouts, 0.89 WHIP, .232 Opponent Average, 8.0 K/9)

Guerrier's Reliever Efficiency was 69% (9-13), but he was actually quite good. The last two years, he did what was asked of him when it was asked, and he proved himself a big league pitcher. With the injuries, Guerrier will be asked to pitch in much more high leverage situations, but in reality, he had been doing more of that this year already. Guerrier's fastball is good and he has good control. His curveball is excellent! He should just get better and pitch with more confidence.

April Grade: B+

May Grade: B+

 

JASON MILLER

(3 Games, 3.2 Innings Pitched, 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 1 walk, 2 strikeouts, 0.27 WHIP, .083 Opponent Average, 4.9 K/9)

Miller came up to replace the injured Dennys Reyes, and through three appearances, he has certainly made a positive impression. He has shown that he can get both righties and lefties out. He doesn't throw hard, but he mixes a good curveball and a changeup with excellent control of a fastball. He may have now put himself in the long-term LOOGY plans, or more. 3-3 in 'Reliever Efficiency.'

May Grade: A

 

JOE NATHAN

(12 Games, 12.0 Innings Pitched, 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA, 4 Saves in 5 Chances, 3 walk, 14 strikeouts, 1.00 WHIP, .261 Opponent Average, 10.5 K/9)

Joe Nathan's Reliever Efficiency for May was 83% (10-12) Nathan was back to the Nathan of old after a slow start in April. He's getting ahead of hitters. He is throwing more fastballs. He is getting strikeouts. The WHIP is down. He is not walking batters as much as he did. He'll just be better in June and July. Hopefully the Twins will give him plenty of save opportunities. Not that I care about Saves, but that means that the Twins will likely win those games!

April Grade: C+

May Grade: A-

 

PAT NESHEK

(13 Games, 13.2 Innings Pitched, 0-0 with a 0.66 ERA, 6 walk, 18 strikeouts, 0.88 WHIP, .235 Opponent Average, 11.9 K/9)

Neshek's Reliever Efficiency was 77% (10-13) for the month of May. For the second straight month, he gave up runs in just one game. This time was a home run by Alexis Rios. So, technically, I could have said he was 12-13 in quality relief appearances. But knowing Neshek, he would probably say that he wasn't happy with the other two appearances that I deemed non-quality. In one, he went 2/3 of an inning and although he did not give up a run, he walked two. I'm sure Pat wasn't happy with those either. And, in the end, look at the rest of his numbers. Great ERA! Great WHIP! Low opponent batting average and lots of strikeouts! You really can't ask for any more from a reliever! He is almost automatic against righties AND lefties this year!

April Grade: A-

May Grade: A

 

GLEN PERKINS

(6 Games, 15.1 Innings Pitched, 0-0 with a 3.52 ERA, 6 walk, 9 strikeouts, 1.24 WHIP, .344 Opponent Average, 5.3 K/9)

Perkins was putting together a great performance for the Twins in a game where they wanted him to get a few innings. He did that, but then he felt pain in his arm. Later that night, he was put on the Disabled List. I'm surprised somewhat by his lack of strikeouts. He is still walking too many and giving up too many hits. He still could use some more AAA innings. I really think that would be best for his development. Hopefully when he is deemed healthy, he will get a chance to go to Rochester. That means that Miller and/or Cali are getting the job done and Perkins can pitch some innings as a starter for the Red Wings. He went 4-6 in 'Reliever Efficiency.'

April Grade: C-

May Grade: C

 

DENNIS REYES

(6 Game, 4.2 Innings Pitched, 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA, 2 walks, 3 strikeout, 1.50 WHIP, .368 Opponent Average, 5.8 K/9)

Dennys Reyes went 4-4 in quality relief appearances to start the month, but his last two were not good, and then he went on the Disabled List. Was he hurt in the previous outing? His numbers for the month still were not good, but when you get just 4.2 innings, it is really hard to judge too much. Too many hits allowed and untimely walks. Will we ever see what we saw in 2006 again?

April Grade: F

May Grade: D+

 

JUAN RINCON

(11 Games, 9.0 Innings Pitched, 1-0 with a 4.00 ERA, 5 walks, 6 strikeouts, 1.56 WHIP, .350 Opponent Average, 6.0 K/9)

Juan Rincon's 'Reliever Efficiency' was 64 % (7-11). We know he isn't pitching at 100% either, but as the month went on, he pitched more and he pitched better. But for the month, still too many hits. Too many walks and less strikeouts than we are accustomed to seeing from Rincon. His gradual slide over the last two years is becoming more pronounced. Now would be a good time to try to deal him. However, if he is back to close to what he was two and three years ago, the combination of Rincon, Neshek and Guerrier setting up Nathan is as good as it gets.

April Grade: B+

May Grade: C-

 

THE HITTERS

JASON BARTLETT

(22 Games, 18-74, .243/.349/.284, 3-2B, 0-HR, 6-RBI, 3/3 SB, 9 BB, 12 K)

The month started out really good for Bartlett, but a late-month neck injury and slump dropped his batting average. However, look at that Isolated Discipline of .106. That is impressive. However, a couple of those walks can be attributed to hitting in front of the pitcher in Milwaukee. I think we'll see more doubles and a couple of home runs, but if Bartlett can continue to play really good defense and hit in the neighborhood of .280-.300 with an on-base percentage of .350-.380, that would be excellent!

April Grade: C-

May Grade: C-

 

LUIS CASTILLO

(25 Games, 39-106, .368/.419/.396, 1-2B, 1-3B, 0-HR, 5-RBI, 1/1 SB, 10 BB, 6 K)

Castillo had one of those months that makes us forget that he doesn't hustle. Well, he doesn't hustle unless he has a chance for a hit, and we all know Castillo is an infield-hit machine. Not only did he hit for average, but he walked a lot. A leadoff hitter needs to get on base. Castillo did that as well as possible in May. Hopefully he can stay healthy and put up similar numbers the rest of the year. He is in a contract year, so it is possible. OH... and a year without an error is impressive!

April Grade: B-

May Grade: A

 

JEFF CIRILLO

(17 Games, 13-59, .220/.292/.356, 3-2B, 1-3B, 1-HR, 7-RBI, 1/1 SB, 6 BB, 4 K)

Despite the low average, I am happy that Cirillo is active again. He's a career .300 hitter. Coming off of injury, it should surprise no one that he would get off to a slow start. But he is now getting more playing time, including some at 3B, so I would expect his numbers to move up. I, of course, like that he has walked more than he struckout.

April Grade: INC

May Grade: C

 

MICHAEL CUDDYER

(22 Games, 26-82, .317/.430/.524, 2-2B, 0-3B, 5-HR, 20-RBI, 1/1 SB, 16 BB, 17 K)

Cuddyer missed about 5-6 games in May because of his acrobatics. It took him a couple of games to get back into the swing of things, but he has been on fire of late. He is walking like crazy, which says a lot when you consider that Justin Morneau hits after him. He takes good at bats. Sometimes I think he takes too many pitches, but he has been successful for a year straight, so why alter anything? Good average. Great on-base percentage. Good power. Great run production. Can't ask for anything more. Maybe he is a #3 hitter!

April Grade: A-

May Grade: A

 

LEW FORD

(11 Games, 7-38, .184/.244/.237, 2-2B, 0-HR, 3-RBI, 0/0 SB, 2 BB, 6 K)

Ford missed the first six weeks of the season because of two knee surgeries. He rehabbed for 15-20 days in Rochester and then came up. He got a bit of playing time right away and has since been more of a role player. He should stick with the team the rest of his year, because of his contract, but he will likely be a 5th OF type. Good speed. Solid defense. Little offensive firepower.  

April Grade: INC

May Grade: D

 

CHRIS HEINTZ

(7 Games, 4-19, .211/.286/.211, 0-2B, 0-HR, 1-RBI, 0/0 SB, 2 BB, 2 K)

Heintz came up when Mauer went on the Disabled List. Mike Redmond hogged all the playing time for the first week, but Heintz has been getting regular playing time since. Although he isn't doing anything in particular, he has come up with a couple of big hits.  Since he only has caught part time in Rochester the last few years, to expect much defensively isn't really fair, but he has done alright. Not a bad third catcher. 

April Grade: INC

May Grade: C

 

TORII HUNTER

(27 Games, 33-106, .311/.365/.519, 4-2B, 6-HR, 27-RBI, 5/8 SB, 9 BB, 23 K)

OK, this is the fourth straight month that Torii Hunter has played very well. It isn't a fluke anymore. I think we are seeing a trend. Will it continue, or will reality come up and bite him? I'm actually leaning toward this being the new Hunter. Not that he'll hit over .300 every month, but I think he can hit for extra bases, and he can drive in runs, and steal a few bases and get himself on Web Gems! He did it all again in May, and that is a good thing. At least in May he got some help from the rest of the middle of the order.

April Grade: A 

May Grade: A

 

GARRETT JONES

(4 Games, 1-8, .125/.222/.125, 0-2B, 0-HR, 0-RBI, 0/0 SB, 1 BB, 1 K)

I am glad that Jones got a call up. I am glad for him that he made an impression on Gardy. I do expect that we will see him back with the Twins before September, but certainly for the final month. Eight at bats isn't enough to make any opinion on what he'll do. But a first big league hit is a first big league hit, and no one can take that away from him!

May Grade: C

 

JASON KUBEL

(24 Games, 18-82, .220/.297/.366, 6-2B, 2-HR, 5-RBI, 1/1 SB, 8 BB, 21 K)

Yes, I am a big time Kubel backer, and I fully believe that he will start seeing some results here in the near future IF Gardy continues to put him out there nearly every day. That said, the numbers for the month were not good. Not a good batting average. Few runs driven in. Too many strikeouts! But he continues to hit the ball hard, and things should even themselves out, right? I too would like to see more power, and I'm not worried. That will happen. Another positive is eight extra base hits in 82 at bats. That is not bad at all.

April Grade: C 

May Grade: C

 

JOE MAUER

(4 Games, 5-18, .278/.350/.333, 1-2B, 0-HR, 2-RBI, 0/0 SB, 1 BB, 4 K)

The numbers really mean nothing when you're only talking about four games. Mauer's quadriceps injury hit him hard and almost a month later, he continues to be out of the lineup. It will be important to get him in the lineup. As well as Mike Redmond is playing, Joe Mauer is so much better. Although I will never say that a position change would be good for Mauer, for the first time, I am willing to say that, FOR NOW, he should hit 2nd in the Twins lineup. At least until he is definitely at 100% or a decent #2 option presents itself.

April Grade: A

May Grade: N/A

 

JUSTIN MORNEAU

(27 Games, 33-105, .314/.380/.667, 5-2B, 1-3B, 10-HR, 29-RBI, 0/0 SB, 11 BB, 20 K)

The MVP is showing how MVP-like he can be. What a month for the power hitting lefty. He played a great 1B. OK, like anyone cares about that. The man can hit, and right now, he is on a major role. Ten homers in a month, to go with six other extra base hits. A major league leading 29 RBI for the month. Sure, he strikes out, but really who cares? He is making himself an MVP candidate again! And to think, at this time last year, he was hitting in the low .200s and some thought he could be demoted to Rochester! In the one year from June 1st, 2006, through May 31st, 2007, here are Justin Morneau's numbers. They are simply unbelievable!

AB Hits BA 2B 3B HR RBI Runs BB SO
621 207 .333 40 2 40 138 112 63 89

April Grade: B+

May Grade: A

 

NICK PUNTO

(26 Games, 23-91, .253/.364/.275, 2-2B, 0-3B, 0-HR, 5-RBI, 7/9 SB, 16 BB, 19 K)

Punto was a little bit better in May than April. His value comes from his defense which, for the most part, was very good. The rest of his value comes from his on-base percentage, and for April, it was very good. Sure, just a .253 batting average, but he got on base 36% of the time which is good. He has no power, and that is fine. I still think he should be batting ninth. If Mauer were to move up to second, he would actually be hitting 3rd, after Punto and Castillo, after the first inning. If Punto can get on base, Mauer, Cuddyer and Morneau should have many more RBI opportunities.

April Grade: C   

May Grade: C+

 

JOSH RABE

(3 Games, 3-10, .300/.300/.300, 0-2B, 0-HR, 1-RBI, 0/0 SB, 0 BB, 2 K)

Rabe didn't get a lot of time. He was OK in his opportunities, but nothing spectacular. He had a lot of quick at bats. He went on the Disabled List when Lew Ford was activated, and he is currently rehabbing in Rochester.

April Grade: D-

May Grade: C+

 

MIKE REDMOND  

(19 Games, 25-68, .368/.419/.500, 6-2B, 1-HR, 5-RBI, 0/0 SB, 4 BB, 6 K)

Redmond went back to being the best backup catcher in the big leagues in May when he became the team's regular for the month. Batting average, doubles and even his first Twins home run. He is an aggressive hitter who doesn't take many pitches, but he puts the ball in play. He is as good as it gets when it comes to hitting with two strikes. And, defensively, he has been terrific!

April Grade: B 

May Grade: A

 

LUIS RODRIGUEZ

(11 Games, 5-24, .208/.296/.250, 1-2B, 0-HR, 1-RBI, 0/0 SB, 2 BB, 1 K)

He started out the month with some playing time at 3B and he did fine, but since that time, he has been relegated to infrequent at bats. I like his at bats. You all know that I'm a big fan of Luis(!) in a utility role.

April Grade: C- 

May Grade: C

 

JASON TYNER

(15 Games, 9-43, .209/.286/.233, 1-2B, 0-HR, 7-RBI, 0/0 SB, 3 BB, 5 K)

Tyner's numbers are not good. Consider that in his first game of the month, he went 3-4. In his second-to-last start of the month, he was also 3-4. So, for the rest of the month, Tyner went just 3-35 (.086). It is difficult to understand the role on the team for Tyner. Like Ford, he is a solid fifth outfielder. He won't necessarily hurt you, but he will never have a real strong impact... except when Ozzie Guillen is around.

April Grade: A-

May Grade: D+

 

RONDELL WHITE

(Did Not Play)

One of these days he'll get back in the lineup. Then what will happen to the lineup and roster?

April Grade: INC

May Grade: N/A

 

So, there are my May Grade for the Minnesota Twins players. I would love to hear you thoughts or comments on any of them. Please feel free to agree or disagree and let me know why. Send me an e-mail

 

Minor League Updates

Here are the Twins updates from last night, including game reports of their minor league affiliates.

Thursday SethSpeaks Player of the Day – Trevor Plouffe, New Britain Rockcats
Thursday SethSpeaks Pitcher of the Day – Tristan Crawford,
New Britain Rockcats

ROCHESTER REPORT
 

Thursday - Red Wings 2, Richmond 5 – Garrett Jones continues to hit. He went 2-4 with his 13th double and an RBI. Doug Deeds hit a double. Dave Gassner fell to 1-4. The lefty went the first 6.1 innings. He gave up five runs (4 earned) on nine hits. He walked three and did not strikeout a batter. Julio DePaula came back to the Red Wings and got all five hitters that he faced out, including three on strikeouts. Brian Bass pitched a scoreless ninth.    
 

NEW BRITAIN NEWS
Thursday - Rockcats 7, Binghamton 0
Tristan Crawford pitched his best game of the year. He improved to 5-3 with seven strong, shutout innings. He gave up just one hit and one walk while striking out nine. Jay Sawatski and Frank Mata each threw a shutout inning as well. Trevor Plouffe led the offense. He went 3-5 with his 15th double and three RBI. David Winfree hit his 13th double and second triple in four at bats. Brandon Roberts went 2-4 with his fourth double.


FT MYERS MEMOS

Thursday - Miracle 0, Sarasota 4
Zach Ward fell to 2-7 on the year, but he again threw very well. He gave up just one run on five hits and a walk in his seven innings. David Shinskie came in for the 8th, and he gave up three runs on four hits and a walk in his inning. Kyle Aselton walked two in a scoreless ninth. The Miracle managed just three hits. Caleb Moore had two of them. Whit Robbins had the other.
 

BELOIT BITS
Thursday - Snappers 1, Kane County 11
Adam Hawes had a rough start. He gave up nine runs (5 earned) on eight hits and two walks in just three innings. Aaron Craig went the next three innings and gave up only an unearned run. Jose Lugo, back from the DL, gave up a run in two innings. Dan Leatherman struck out one in his shutout inning. The offense had just five hits. Johnny Woodard went 2-2 with two doubles. Garrett Olson went 2-5 with his seventh double and an RBI.

 

Do you have any further thoughts on any Twins prospects, minor leaguers, or these summaries? E-mail me, or also feel free to leave comments below.

That is it for today. Have a good day and a great weekend!! 

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Friday Bonus Links

Here is a great article on Kevin Slowey by LaVelle!

If you'd like to make your predictions for how Slowey will do tonight, click here.

If you're new to the site, and just did a google or yahoo search of "Kevin Slowey" to learn a little more, check out the interactive Q&A that Kevin did with the readers of this site just two weeks ago.  

 

WOW - Want a trip to the Minnesota State High School softball tournament? Sometimes you have to do a little extra work!!!

 

TAILGATING - I just got a question from a reader regarding Tailgating before Twins games. I guess I wasn't sure how to respond. My thinking is that there isn't a place to tailgate, but I could be wrong. Are there any parking lots where tailgating is still allowed? I know there are a lot of activities on the plaza to do, but maybe there is someone out there who can help. If so, leave some Comments below, or send me an e-mail.

 

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