Guest Blogger: Jeremy Nygaard
A Look at the 2011 Twins Draft
If
ever anyone would like to write something up for me to post on my site, Tonight,
Long-time reader Jeremy Nygaard let me use an article
that he wrote that he is not able to use. It’s tremendous information for those
of you interested in draft coverage. So, thank you to Jeremy, and Enjoy!
-----
ManCenter.com’s 2011 Draft Preview – Minnesota Twins
(ManCenter.com
– making its world-wide debut 8/1/11)
By Jeremy Nygaard
The
Twins own draft pick #30 in the first round and picks #50 and #55 in the sandwich
round.
This
will be scouting director Deron Johnson’s 4th
draft since taking it over in 2008.
Since that time there has been a definite pattern that the Twins have
followed when making their early selections: Most prominently, college pitchers who command
their pitches and secondly, athletic hitters that project to have many
tools. Generally, the guys they’ve taken
have been considered very “signable” and the team has
often been quick to come to terms with their picks and get them into the minor
league system.
The
one notable exception is SP Kyle Gibson, who was projected to be a top-10 pick
before coming down with a forearm injury.
Gibson signed at the deadline for a bonus above slot… a rarity for Twins
draft picks.
A
quick look at Johnson’s top 3 picks each year since taking over the draft:
2008:
Aaron Hicks, OF, 14th
overall pick who signed for $1.78m (slot: $1.78m). Many teams liked Hicks as a pitcher, but the
Twins were convinced his other tools (especially his power as a switch-hitter)
would play. Some consider him to be the
Twins best prospect.
2008:
Carlos Gutierrez, P, 27th
overall pick who signed for $1.29m (slot: $1.29m). A surprise selection who
is best known for his sinking fastball. He
has moved between the rotation and bullpen, but projects best a power set-up
man.
2008:
Shooter Hunt, P, 31st
overall pick who signed for $1.08m (slot: $1.08m). An outlier to pattern. The knock on Hunt in college was his lack
of command. It has shown while a pro as
Hunt has had a hard time throwing it over the plate and, from all indications, has
faded as a prospect.
2009:
Kyle Gibson, P, 22nd
overall pick who signed for $1.85m (slot: $1.287m). Gibson signed for top-10 money in the last
hour before the deadline and the Twins couldn’t be happier. Easily considered the best pitching prospect
in the system, Gibson is poised to join the starting rotation soon.
2009:
Matt Bashore,
LHP, 46th overall pick who signed for $751,500 (slot:
$751,500). Bashore
drew comparisons to current Twin Glen Perkins after he was drafted out of
Indiana. Shortly after signing in 2009, Bashore was shut down to have his elbow cleaned up and then
had Tommy John surgery causing him to miss all of 2010.
2009:
Billy Bullock, P, 70th
overall pick who signed for $522,000 (slot: $522,000). Bullock was one of the few “power”
arms in
the system before being traded in a questionable deal to the Braves to keep the
rights to P Scott Diamond. Since the
trade though (and even before), Bullock has struggled with his control.
2010:
Alex Wimmers,
P, 21st overall pick who signed for $1.332m (slot: $1.332). Wimmers was touted
as a strike-throwing-middle-of-the-rotation-pitcher who would move quickly
through the system and slide in nicely somewhere behind Kyle Gibson. Wimmers, however,
has yet to record an out this year and has turned from near-sure-thing into the
biggest question-mark in the organization.
2010:
Niko Goodrum,
ATH, 71st overall pick who signed for $514,800 (slot:
$514,800). Goodrum
profiles almost as a
rawer
version of Aaron Hicks. Although, it’s
clear that Hicks’s future is in CF or RF, the jury is still out on Goodrum. It is most
likely that Goodrum will get much bigger and end up
at 3B or possibly an OF corner.
2010:
Pat Dean, LHP, 102nd
overall pick who signed for $319,500 (slot: $319,500). It should come as no surprise that the Twins
popped a college pitcher whose comp is Glen Perkins. He commands a four-pitch mix and has polish.
What
does that mean for this year?
Well,
the baseball draft is harder to project than any other major league draft, but
given the Twins history, I’m going to give you ten names that I believe may end
up drafted by the Twins.
In
an order based on both probability and personal preference:
Tyler Anderson, LHP, Oregon; The Twins liked Anderson coming out of
HS in 2008 and drafted him in the 50th round. It would be hard to believe that they aren’t
interested again. Anderson fits the
Twins mold as a pitcher with great command and a great feel for pitching. (Could be a Twin if… he’s still on the board
and the Twins want to continue their run of college pitchers in Round 1.)
Brandon Nimmo, OF, Wyoming HS; Nimmo’s
high school doesn’t have baseball, so the fact that he’s getting first round
mentions is quite an achievement. He’s
committed to Arkansas, and he’s been dealing with nagging injuries, so there is
some belief he might be a tough-sign. (Could be a Twin if… they are looking to
add an athlete – think taller version of Joe Benson – to the stable. The lack of willingness to go over-slot could
prevent this from happening.)
Trevor Story, SS, Texas HS; Everybody is
aware how the middle-infield cupboard is brutally empty. Story projects as a HS SS that can stick and
is considered signable if he goes in the first round. (Could be a Twin if… they deviate from what
they’ve done in the past and draft for need. The last HS SS the Twins drafted
in the first round – Trevor Plouffe – hasn’t worked
out as well as hoped.)
Kolten
Wong, 2B, Hawaii; Another player with
a Twins connection. Wong was
drafted by them in the 16th round in 2008. Ultimately, Wong went the college route and
has improved his status as a prospect.
Wong plays solid defense at 2B and is an above-average hitter despite
his (lack of) size. He’s been compared
to players from Dustin Pedroia to Chone
Figgins.
(Could be a Twin if… he’s still on the board and the Twins don’t
want to continue their run of college pitchers in Round 1. I’ve heard the Rays like Wong and they have
all sorts of picks.)
Jackie Bradley, OF, South Carolina; Bradley was considered one of
the top college hitters coming into this year but a wrist injury has him
dropping quickly down draft boards.
Bradley has all the tools and fits the profile the Twins seek in a
hitter. (Could be a Twin if… he falls out of the first round
and into the sandwich round. I
don’t believe the Twins take him at #30, but he would be a steal – even though
they’d have to pay overslot – at #50.)
Brian Goodwin, OF, Miami-Dade JC; Goodwin is draft-eligible a year
earlier than expected after being kicked off the UNC baseball team. That should be enough to turn some teams off,
but he has the raw tools the Twins look for and is a possibility because of it.
(Could be a Twin if… he takes a drop into the #50s. He has leverage in that he could go through
the draft process two more times if he elects to not sign.)
Sean Gilmartin, LHP,
Florida State; A guy that knows how to pitch and is considered a safe pick and
easy sign. (Of course, Wimmers
was a “safe” pick and how did that turn out?) . (Could be a
Twin if… they want him. He makes
sense at any of their top three choices, especially the sandwich round.)
Johnny Eierman, OF,
Missouri HS; Another guy who profiles like someone the Twins would like. Speed may be
his only tool that really stands out, but he’s a good athlete with a
high-ceiling. (Could
be a Twin if… they feel like they can go over slot in the sandwich round and
sign a guy that is very projectable.)
Gabriel Rosa, OF, Puerto Rico HS; The Twins have drafted the
top-rated hitter out of Puerto Rico in the last three drafts (Angel Morales,
Danny Ortiz and Eddie Rosario), so there is no reason to believe it won’t
happen again. Rosa doesn’t project to have the tools or ceiling of the other
three, but could be a fit in LF. (Could be a Twin if… They feel like continuing
their trend in Round 4.)
Blake Swihart, C, New Mexico HS; Swihart
is the highest-profile prospect on this list and compares similarly to Royals
prospect Wil Myers, who was moved from C to the OF
this year, and was a tough sign in 2009.
Myers slid to the 3rd round and got a $2m signing bonus.
(Could be a Twin if… he drops and the talent-starved organization wants to pony
up for a very talented prospect.)
The
Ideal Draft:
The
Twins need to fill holes in the middle of the infield, add quality arms and
high-ceiling athletes. If the Twins
could get Story or Wong at #30 and pay them slot, that
would be a great way to start the draft.
It would get even better if they were able to add Gilmartin in the sandwich round
along with an athlete like Eierman or Goodwin. If Swihart were still on the board at #50 (which he shouldn’t
be), the Twins need to nab him and add their athletic OF (Rosa) in Round 4. Expect the
Twins to add a defensive catcher somewhere in the top 10 rounds and don’t be
surprised if the Twins re-draft unsigned 2008 11th rounder Ronnie Richardson, an OF from Central
Florida, who they felt could play SS.
Richardson could be a Ben Revere-type catalyst. As always, the Twins will protect their
backyard with a handful of local guys (U of MN P T.J. Oakes and Kansas OF Jason
Brunansky, son of former Twin and AA hitting
coach Tom Brunansky, are a couple of possibilities.)
Feel
free to add your thoughts
or Comments here.
Follow
Jeremy on Twitter @jeremynygaard
Questions
or comments, email jeremynygaard@mancenter.com
-----
Tuesday Minor League
Scoreboard
Beloit 11, Dayton 10 – With two outs in the top of the 9th,
Lance Ray was called upon to pinch hit for Andy Leer with the Snappers trailing
10-7. The bases were loaded and Ray drilled a grand slam that gave the Snappers
the 11-10 lead that they would hang on to. Pat Dean started and gave up five
runs on 11 hits and four walks in 4.2 innings. He struck out six. Blayne Weller then gave up three runs on four hits and two
walks in 1.1 innings. Ben Tootle went the next two innings and gave up two runs
on one hit and two walks. Clinton Dempster came in
with the lead and threw a 1-2-3 bottom of the 9th for his third
save. Daniel Santana went 3-4 with a walk and his fourth home run. Danny Ortiz
hit his 17th and 18th doubles in five at bats. Michael
Gonzales went 2-5 with his fifth doubles and drove in five runs. Wang-Wei Lin
went 1-2 with two walks.
Ft. Myers lost to Lakeland 13-2. Matt Schuld
started and gave up six runs on nine hits and four walks in three innings. Brad
Tippett gave up four runs (3 earned) on six hits and
two walk in two innings. Shooter Hunt got one out, but he gave up three runs on
one hit and five walks. Matt Tone struck out two over the next 1.2 innings.
Dakota Watts returned from the Disabled List and pitched a scoreless eighth.
Anderson Hidalgo and Danny Rams were each 2-4 with a double. Jhonatan Goncalves went 1-2 with
two walks and his fourth stolen base.
New Britain swept a double-header against Portland. In the first
game, they won 2-0. Steve Singleton went 2-2. Michael Holliman went 2-3 with an
RBI. Evan Bigley was 1-3 with his 12th
double and an RBI. Brett Jacobson started and threw five shutout innings. He
gave up two hits and walked three. Santos Arias got two outs and issued a walk
and a hit, but Tyler Robertson got the final four outs to record his sixth
save.
In the second game, the Rock Cats won 5-3. Blake Martin, just
promoted from Ft. Myers, made the start. He gave up two runs (1 earned) on five
hits and three walks in 2.1 innings. Tony Davis went the next 3.2 innings and
gave up just one hit for the win. Mike Tarsi gave up a run on a hit and two
walks but got through the seventh for the save. Joe Benson was 3-4 with his 15th
and 16th double. Deibinson Romero was 2-3.
Michael Holliman hit his fifth home run.
Rochester lost to Toledo 5-0. Andy Baldwin went seven innings
and gave up five runs (3 earned). He gave up four hits, walked none and struck
out three. Three of the hits were home runs. Kyle Waldrop and Jake Stevens each
threw a scoreless inning. Aaron Bates went 3-3. Toby Gardenhire
went 2-3 and is now hitting .284.
Recent Promotions (I mention these on Twitter on Tuesday
morning): Cole DeVries to Rochester. Bruce Pugh and Blake Martin to New Britain. Derek McCallum and Matt Hauser to New Britain. Hyeong-rok Choi and Nelvin Fuentes promoted to Beloit. Jair
Fernandez taken off the DL and playing for New Britain.
Any thoughts? Please
comment here.