Tuesday, May 27, 2008

SethSpeaks Top 50 Twins Prospects

Part 1 - 41-50

With the MLB draft next Thursday already, it is time for me to start posting my midseason Top 50 Twins prospects list. As has been the case in previous years, I am breaking this up into four or five parts just so that the list isn’t too intimidating, and so you take the time to read information on each player mentioned, which is one of the goals for the list. There has been some change since last September’s list came out. There has even been quite a bit of change since February, right before spring training started. So for today, I am posting Part 1, which will be my choices for prospects 41 through 50. I would love to hear your input on any of these prospects or guys you assume may be left out of the Top 50. I always enjoy the discussion that these lists creates. So please e-mail me or leave Comments below.

SethSpeaks Top 50 Twins Prospects

#50 – Tim Lahey - RHP – 26

Spring Teams: Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies

2008 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle, New Britain Rockcats, Rochester Red Wings

Acquired: Twins 20th round draft pick in 2004 out of Princeton

I have traditionally left the 50^th spot in this ranking for an unheralded relief pitcher, to highlight an unlikely performance. At the end of last season, Lahey and Armando Gabino were both put in the 50^th spot. Since that time, Lahey was the #1 overall pick in the Rule V draft by the Tampa Bay Rays. He was traded/sold to the Chicago Cubs with whom he spent most of spring training. He was put on waivers and the Philadelphia Phillies claimed him. That’s when the season started, but the Phillies needed a roster spot, so they offered Lahey back to the Twins, who were thrilled to have him back. As you know, Lahey was drafted out of Princeton as a catcher, so although he is really too old to be thought of any higher than this on a prospect list, he is still very new to pitching. He throws hard and is still working on developing his other pitches, so he still has the potential to be a very good middle reliever at the big league level. In 14 games with the Red Wings so far this year, Lahey is 3-4 with six saves with a 3.22 ERA. In 22.1 innings, he has an incredible 27 strikeouts to two walk ratio which makes a person take notice. He will continue to be the closer for the Red Wings unless or until Bobby Korecky returns. Should the Twins decide they need a bullpen arm in another month or two, Lahey has put himself in position to be that guy.  

2008 Projection: bullpen in Rochester, closing while Korecky up with Twins

Potential: solid middle relievers and set up men

Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

#49 – Garrett Olson – UT – 23

2008 Teams: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 4th round pick in 2006 out of Franklin Pierce College

Much was made of the fact that Olson’s college played many of their games with wood bats. After a solid short season, he moved up to Beloit where he really struggled. Back in Beloit for a second season, Olson has been a middle of the lineup utility player for the Snappers. That isn’t meant as a negative at all. Olson has played 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, LF and DH this season. He has shown some extra base pop this season. He also already has nine stolen bases. Regardless of the position he is playing, Olson does a nice job with the glove. I would expect that Olson will take off here with the bat in the coming weeks and by season’s end, he will have some very good numbers. He is now hitting .259/.305/.346, but I would expect all three numbers to increase proportionately.

2008 Projection: play different places in Beloit

Potential: utility player who could play four or five positions

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

#48 – Brandon Roberts – OF – 23

2008 Team: New Britain Rockcats

Acquired: Acquired from Reds in 2006 for Juan Castro, 7th round pick in 2005 out of Cal Poly

Speed is the name of the game for Roberts. He is very fast. However, in 2008, he has been out of the lineup most of the time due to a hamstring injury that he tried to return from too quickly. He has played in just eight games and was hitting just .188 in his short time. If Roberts doesn’t get back to the lineup pretty quickly, 2008 will be a wasted season for him. It’s doubly unfortunate because it was to be his second year with New Britain. This ranking is based primarily on the fact that in 2007, after hitting horribly in April, hit at least .300 in each remaining month. If Roberts can get back in the lineup and be healthy, he could move up this list throughout the season. If not, I wouldn’t anticipate seeing him on this list after the season.

2008 Projection: hopefully healthy soon in New Britain

Potential: base stealing fourth/fifth outfield - see Tyner, Jason

Could be in Minnesota in: 2009

#47 – Loek Van Mil – RHP – 23

2008 Teams: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: signed as free agent from The Netherlands, July, 2005

Loek Van Mil has been moved ahead slowly, step-by-step, very cautiously. He has a couple of things going against him. First, he is from The Netherlands, where baseball is becoming more popular but still not as advanced as other areas of the world. Second, he is 7 feet, 1 inch tall. If he were to make it to the big leagues, he would be the tallest in history. Van Mil is known for his athleticism, considering his height. But, it is very difficult for a tall pitcher, it seems, to develop their release point and they seem to struggle with their control later into their careers. Of course, the positive is that if they are able to find that release point, the downward angle of their pitches is incredibly difficult for a hitter. Van Mil is a reliever, and he isn’t particularly young for the Midwest League. But in 14 games, he is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA. In 24 innings, he has 27 strikeouts, and although ten walks is not great and still a little high, it is acceptable at this level. Remember, Adam Wainright grew four inches in one offseason while still in the minor leagues, and it took him at least two years to regain his control. The Padres Chris Young did not start pitching well until he was 26. Even Randy Johnson wasn’t Randy Johnson, until he turned 26. In fact, as a 25 year old, with the Mariners, mind you, he walked 26 and struck out 26 batters. Do we know what Van Mil will become? Of course not. But I do like that progress that he has made and hope he can continue to improve.

2008 Projection: I'd like to see a midseason promotion to Ft. Myers

Potential: middle relief

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

#46 – Brian Kirwan – RHP – 20

2008 Teams: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 11th round pick in 2005 out of a California high school

In reviewing my Top 50 from this time last year, I noticed that it was about this time that Kirwan was promoted to Beloit last year. He had a couple of solid starts before really not doing well the rest of the season. Well, he teased us again in 2008 by giving up three or less runs in five of his first six starts. Since then, he has struggled. Now, I still believe that Kirwan has a chance, but I am quite alarmed by his lack of strikeouts. In his 52.2 innings, he has been hittable (63 hits) and added 18 more walks to the mix for a 1.54 WHIP. His 23 walks are incredibly low and make the 18 walks look even worse. Now again, you try not to make too big a deal out of the numbers, and especially in the low levels. Again, Kirwan fell in the draft because of a knee injury, not an arm or shoulder injury. That is important to remember. I do think he needs to have a good second half though.

2008 Projection: full season in the Beloit rotation

Potential: #4 starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

#45 – Anthony Slama – RHP – 24

2008 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: Twins 39th round pick in 2006 out of San Diego

2-0 with eight saves and a 0.34 ERA. 43 walks and nine strikeouts in just 26.1 innings. How is this guy not ranked higher on the list? He’s 24 and in A ball. Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young are second year big leaguers at the age of 22. Kevin Slowey is in his second big league season and he’s 23. It’s hard for me to get too excited about a 24 year old reliever dominating High-A ball like Slama is. That said, the numbers that he has put up since being a 39^th pick in 2005 out of college have been incredible and can not be ignored. Along with Robert Delaney, I think that they are ready to move up to New Britain and show what they really have. If they can succeed there, then it is note worthy. Until then, I am going to be a bit hesitant. I do believe that Slama has the better “stuff” than Delaney, so if he can get promoted and succeed, he will certainly move up this list.

2008 Projection: Promoted to Ft. Myers after Rob Delaney is.

Potential: Very solid set up man

Could be in Minnesota in: 2010

#44 – Edward Ovalle – OF – 22

2008 Teams: Ft. Myers Miracle

Acquired: signed as free agent from Dominican Republic in 2002

Ovalle is in his second season at Ft. Myers and he has become a regular. He has done very well and earned the playing time. In doing so, he has earned a place on this prospect list. To this point this season, he is hitting .301/.343/.481 with four doubles, six triples and four homers. He is also six of seven in stolen base attempts. Ovalle does a little bit of everything well without doing any one thing great. He’s a solid outfielder with a good arm. He’s got good speed and is a solid base runner without necessarily being a burner. He has hit for average, and he has hit for a little power. In other words, he is a solid player and the main reason I am choosing to include him is because clearly he is learning a lot, taking it into the games and showing that improvement. And then note that although he’s been in the Twins system for six years, he is still just 22 years old. I can’t speak for anyone else, but I can’t help but wonder if an Alex Romero comparable would be appropriate.

2008 Projection: season in the outfield for Ft. Myers

Potential: solid all-around player, not great at any one thing, but won't hurt a team either in a role

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

#43 – Danny Lehmann – C – 22

2008 Team: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: Twins 8th round pick in 2007 out of Rice University

As I have said before, I was surprised when Lehmann was still available when the Twins made their 8^th round pick in 2007. Lehmann, a Denver native, played at that national power house that is Rice University where he led a great pitching staff. He can also hit a little bit. Right now, he is splitting some time with Jair Fernandez and Greg Yersich, but I just have a feeling that Lehmann is going to find a way to keep advancing. He will hit some, but his defense is equally impressive, and his leadership is unquestioned. To this point, he is hitting .286/.353/.416 with seven extra base hits in 77 at bats. He also has seven walks with just eight strikeouts.

2008 Projection: catching and some DHing in Beloit

Potential: solid backup catcher behind plate and with bat

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

#42 – Santos Arias – RHP – 21

2008 Teams: Beloit Snappers

Acquired: signed as free agent from Dominican Republic in Feb, 2005.

Arias began the season in Extended Spring Training, but with injuries, he got an opportunity to start with the Snappers. He took advantage of it and should remain in the rotation throughout the season. He has gone 28.2 innings over his five starts. He has given up just 22 hits and five walks. He has 27 strikeouts. Those are the types of numbers that you like to see in a young pitcher. In his most recent start, he went seven innings and gave up just three hits. In his first Beloit start, he threw six shutout innings. Now, the perceived concern with Arias that I can already hear is that he is tiny. He is listed at 5-11 and just 162 pounds, so the Ramon Ortiz comparisons will likely start soon.

2008 Projection: Extended Spring Training, then E-town

Potential: back of the rotation starter

Could be in Minnesota in: 2011

#41 – Jose Morales – C – 25

2008 Teams: Rochester Red Wings

Acquired: Twins 3rd round pick in 2001 out Academia de Providencia (Puerto Rico)

How great was it last year to see Morales go 3-3 when he was finally called up last season? How sad was it to see him get hurt in that same game and for his season to end. When he was sent down early in spring training, it was surprising and yet, it allowed him more game time to work through his injury. But then he got off to an absolutely horrible start with the bat. In April, he raised his average to .233, but he has hit .377 in May and is now at .307 on the season. He has again solidified himself as the Twins #3, or emergency catcher. He has gotten hot and is showing that 2007 was not a fluke. Based on his offense the last month, I would feel comfortable with him getting playing time with the Twins. Of course, let’s remember too that he is an offensive catcher, so there would be a significant drop defensively if Morales had to play.

2008 Projection: catching for the Red Wings, Twins 3rd catcher (if needed)

Potential: solid backup catcher

Could be in Minnesota in: 2008

That's it for today! What do you think of #s 41-50? Have a great day! Be sure to check back in the coming days for Part 2 of the SethSpeaks.net Top 50 Twins Prospects list.

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