Wednesday, May 25, 2005
LINING UP
Good morning ! Well, Monday night, the Twins and all four of their affiliates lost their games. That was a good day to not report on. I did have the intention of reviewing those games here, but Tuesday night was far better. New Britain was rained out, but the Twins and the other three Twins affiliates won! So, as for the Twins and minor league reports, I am choosing to only report on last night's games!
What I had actually hoped to talk about today was the Twins lineup. I spent a lot of time yesterday thinking about the Twins lineup, trying to come up with the "right" scenario, the "right" lineup. I talked to a couple of friends and other Twins fans to get some ideas. In reality, who am I? I'm just a guy who likes following the Twins and have absolutely no say in the order that Ron Gardenhire writes on his lineup card each day. I could decide on a lineup and if Gardy went with it, maybe it would get no-hit. But, it is fun to think through different scenarios, and try to sound smart, right? It's all about discussing and second guessing and thinking what we would do if we were in charge.
So, I was all ready to post an article on what the Twins lineup should be. And what did Gardy do last night? That's right, he switched up the lineup! But, because of all the time and thought I have put into these thoughts, I am still going to talk about possible Twins lineups.
I thought that a couple of things needed to happen in the Twins lineup, or any lineup. First, it is important to have your on-base percentage guys in the top two spots. Why? Because you want guys on base for your best hitter, who should be hitting third, and your power/RBI hitter who should be hitting cleanup. I also thought it would be good, although not necessary to try to break up the lefties, but also to break up the "weaker" hitters. So, before coming up with my "suggested" Twins lineup, I thought I would just point out some of the ideas that were discussed.
IDEAL LINEUP MAKEUP
1.) Who should be at the top of the order? In other words, who gets on base, who will hit first and second? Here are the current leaders in On-Base Percentage for the Twins; Joe Mauer (.399), Matthew LeCroy (.387), Jacque Jones (.382), Justin Morneau (.361), Lew Ford (.354), Nick Punto (.350), Shannon Stewart (.347). So many people want to think that Stewart is the instigator, the guy that sets the table for the Twins. However, as you can see, his on-base percentage is actually far down this list. I think it is pretty easy to take Matthew LeCroy and Justin Morneau out of consideration to hit first or second for obvious reasons. I don't think anyone really believes that Jones will continue to get on base at that clip. So, that leaves Joe Mauer, Lew Ford, Nick Punto and Shannon Stewart as possible leadoff and #2 hitters.
2.) So, who is the Twins best overall hitter? How should hit third? Best hitter, to me, means a guy who has good, smart at bats, is willing to take walks and can get a lot of extra base hits. I prefer a guy who doesn't strike out a lot. So, I think that the best, and easiest measurement for that is OPS (On-Base Percentage Plus Slugging Percentage) because that takes both factors into play. So, who are the Twins top OPS guys? Justin Morneau (.971), Matthew LeCroy (.881), Joe Mauer (.835), Jacque Jones (.827), Lew Ford (.783), Shannon Stewart (.732). Again, I think that there is one obvious reason that Morneau isn't hitting 3rd (because he should hit 4th). Matthew LeCroy isn't even a regular (maybe he should be), but he should be a middle of the lineup guy as well. Joe Mauer is widely considered the Twins top hitter. Again, Jones got off to a very fast start but has tailed down quickly. Ford and Stewart are both guys that we considered as the Twins best hitter as well.
3.) Justin Morneau should absolutely be the cleanup hitter. Despite his recent struggles, he is a very good hitter. He will strikeout more than you would want a #3 hitter to strikeout. He has tremendous power, but when he is hitting well, he gets a lot of doubles and uses the whole field. He also has a history of driving in a lot of runs. We would hope to have three guys with good on-base percentages batting before him so he has plenty of RBI opportunities.
4.) There has been a lot of discussion on the 5th spot in the lineup. What would I want in a #5 hitter? To me, it should really be an extension of the cleanup hitter. He should be a guy that a pitcher still doesn't want to face, meaning that Morneau should see more strikes. It should simply be a good overall hitter. I think it should be someone that will make the pitcher work, a guy who will drive the ball for extra base hits with some power. So, let's take a quick look at who the Twins leaders are in extra-base hits: Morneau (16), Ford (14), Hunter/Jones (13), Cuddyer (12).
5.) I think that a lineup should be dynamic. In other words, I don't believe in what the Twins are preaching to us. I don't believe that Torii Hunter should hit 5th just because he hits fifth. I don't believe that Jacque Jones should hit 6th just because he hits 6th. I laugh every time I hear about how Hunter is comfortable hitting fifth and Jones is comfortable hitting sixth. And yet, Lew Ford is comfortable hitting 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, or 7th, right? Just seems a little hypocritical. I believe that if a player is red-hot, he should hit higher in the lineup. I also believe that if a player is struggling, it is ok to move them down in the order. These moves do not have to be permanent, just something for a change of pace.
6.) I personally would prefer to keep Hunter and Jones apart from each other in the lineup? Why? Because they are both such free swingers. There isn't much more frustrating than watching the first four batters of the game make the pitcher throw a lot of pitches and take walks and have good at bats only to see Torii and Jacque hack at everything in site.
7.) I actually believe that the #6 slot in the lineup should almost be another leadoff hitter. I think this spot should be another on-base guy to jump start the bottom part of the order. He should be a guy who can put the ball in play, maybe getting RBI chances if the 4 and 5 hitters are in scoring position.
8.) The 7th hitter should essentially be another #2 hitter, and the 8th hitter should be another three type hitter. Obviously this #3-type hitter will not be to the same level as the actual #3 hitter, but I do think that this is simply an ideal for a lineup.
9.) The number 9 hitter should be your worst hitter. That is pretty basic, and just the way it should be.
So, What Should the Twins Lineup Be?
1 - Shannon Stewart - LF (yes, I want him to DH, with Ford in LF too, but it just isn't going to happen! Despite stats showing the opposite, the Twins have been better with Stewart leadnig off.
2 - Joe Mauer - C (I do believe the Mauer is the Twins best overall hitter. The main reason that I have moved him up to the 2 slot is because of his incredible on-base percentage and ability to take a lot of pitches)
3 - Lew Ford - DH (I considered Stewart here, but Ford just does everything. He gets on base. He takes a lot of pitches. And, although he doesn't hit a lot of home runs, he hits a lot of doubles.)
4 - Justin Morneau - 1B (Even with his recent struggles, he is finding ways to drive in runs consistently. He has the most power on the team. He is a major presence in the lineup, and he is a good overall hitter still).
5 - Michael Cuddyer - 3B (He is one of the hotter Twins hitters right now, so I do think that he is the guy who should be hitting 5th right now. As I have said, I do think that a lineup can change and if Torii Hunter ever heats up, or if Matthew LeCroy is in the lineup, this is a good place for them.)
6 - Nick Punto - 2B (may seem unorthodox, but I think this would be a good spot for Punto. As you can see, he gets on base. He is a smart hitter. He takes pitches. And, for a smallish guy, he does have some pop in his bat. He would be a good second leadoff hitter.)
7 - Jacque Jones - RF (When Jones is on, or against most righties, he is a very good hitter. But as we have already seen this year, he is very streaky. Could switch with Punto just to keep he and Torii Hunter apart in the lineup.)
8 - Torii Hunter - CF (Maybe there is a way to convince him that, according to SethSpeaks, the 8th spot in the lineup is the second 3rd spot! Maybe then he would be alright with hitting this far in the lineup. If he hits down in the lineup and plays good CF defense, he is a great 8th hitter!)
9 - Juan Castro - SS (Yes, his defense is usually that good. And right now, he is the best option at SS. He is most certainly the Twins worst hitter in any lineup they put on the field, so the 9-hole is the only spot that makes sense. I think if Jason Bartlett comes back up as the regular SS, he should hit #9 to keep the pressure off of him.)
So there you have it, the lineup that I would put out there as my standard, regular Twins lineup. Of course, there are really three other lineups to consider. First, the standard lineup against a left-handed pitcher. But also there will be day games after night games, and Joe Mauer will likely sit out one of those games as well, so that is another lineup.
Lineup against Lefty w/Mauer
1.) Shannon Stewart - LF
2.) Joe Mauer - C
3.) Lew Ford - RF
4.) Justin Morneau - 1B
5.) Matthew LeCroy - DH
6.) Nick Punto - 2B
7.) Michael Cuddyer - 3B
8.) Torii Hunter - CF
9.) Juan Castro - SS
Lineup against Lefty w/out Mauer
1.) Shannon Stewart - LF
2.) Nick Punto - 2B
3.) Lew Ford - RF
4.) Justin Morneau - 1B
5.) Matthew LeCroy - DH
6.) Michael Cuddyer - 3B
7.) Torii Hunter - CF
8.) Mike Redmond - C
9.) Juan Castro - SS
Lineup against Righty w/out Mauer
1.) Shannon Stewart - LF
2.) Nick Punto - 2B
3.) Lew Ford - DH
4.) Justin Morneau - 1B
5.) Michael Cuddyer - 3B
6.) Jacque Jones - RF
7.) Torii Hunter - CF
8.) Mike Redmond - C
9.) Juan Castro - SS
SUMMARY
So, as I am thinking through a possible Twins lineup change, apparently Ron Gardenhire was thinking about it too. Last night, Gardy switched up the lineup. Here is how the Twins went against Jake Westbrook last night:
Shannon Stewart - LF
Joe Mauer - C
Lew Ford - DH
Justin Morneau - 1B
Torii Hunter - CF
Jacque Jones - RF
Michael Cuddyer - 3B
Nick Punto - 2B
Juan Castro - SS
So, as per usual, I am a day late and more than a dollar short. But, although Hunter and Jones still manned the 5 and 6 spots in the lineup, there was a shake up, and I think it was a good one at the top of the order.
Now again, I write all of this, and it is simply my thoughts and my opinions. I don't claim to be right, or to have all of the right thoughts and answers. But I do enjoy thinking about these things, maybe putting some numbers behind the thoughts and coming up with my opinion. And everyone is entitled to their opinions. So please feel free to e-mail me about 1.) my lineup thoughts or 2.) what your Twins lineup would look like and why? I really enjoy the debate and would love to hear your thoughts and go back and forth with you. So, be sure to e-mail me.
It isn't always important to win pretty. All that matters is winning. I thought that the Twins Geek wrote a great article yesterday on (arguably) the most meaningless statistic in baseball, The Win (I would rank The Save as less important, as well as any defensive statistics at this point).
Anyway, last night's win for the Twins was an ugly win! But we have to take it, and certainly will. Joe Mays came back from his complete game shutout and didn't give up a run through the first four innings, until a solo homer by Jody Gerut. The Twins kept grabbing small, one-run leads, but then giving it up the following inning. The game went to extra innings, and in the top of the 11th, Justin Morneau came up with a huge three run double to give the Twins the comfortable lead and the win. Here are just a few thoughts on the game:
1.) I already discussed the lineup change. Joe Mauer was moved to the #2 spot, and Lew Ford was inserted in the #3 hole. I do like this change for a couple of reasons. It does separate Mauer and Morneau so that a team can't bring in a tough left-hander in late-game situations. Mauer is fine in the 2 spot because of his incredible eye and plate discipline. And, if we're being honest, right now, Lew Ford is probably the Twins best overall hitter.
2.) The thing about Lew Ford is that he does a little of everything. He does hit for average. He does hit for some power, but primarily gets a lot of doubles. He has great speed. He has a good eye and is very patient at the plate. Last night was another good example of that. He was 2-3 with two walks and was hit by a pitch and stole a base. He showed over the weekend that he has extra-base power with five doubles and a triple in three games.
3.) Justin Morneau has been really struggling of late. Last night, he was 2-5 with four RBI. He drove in a run early on a bloop single to left field. But when he came up to bat against lefty Scott Sauerbeck in the 11th with the bases loaded and two outs, he came through with a double to centerfield. But, don't think that he is out of his slump. Morneau is still not having good at bats. Here are some things I've noticed. Pitchers are pitching him outside. Pitchers (lefties and righties) are throwing him a lot of breaking balls that he is swinging through. I mentioned one day last week that he just needs a couple of slap singles to left to regain his form. Let me expand just a little bit, and this is really Baseball/Hitting 101 stuff. Have you noticed where Morneau's front foot ends up after his swing? That's right, he is stepping 'out of the bucket', toward first base. That makes it really hard to hit that pitch on the outside corner. Along with his foot, you can see that his shoulder is opening up too soon, making it impossible to hit that curveball on the outer half of the plate. He'll figure it out again, but what he has to do is really focus on stepping toward the pitcher and keeping his front shoulder by his chin. In doing so, he will be able to hit the ball the other way, and with authority. He just needs to make sure that he is also quick enough to still turn on the inside pitches and mistakes so we can see just how far into the right field bleachers he can hit it! This is a standard adjustment that young hitters have to make throughout their first couple of seasons, and based on his past, Morneau has always made those adjustments.
4.) Jacque Jones is really struggling too. Last night, he struck out looking on a Westbrook pitch that 'backed up' over the inside corner of the plate. The pitch was actually incredible. Greg Maddux has made a career out of that pitch. And I have not seen that pitch break that much, maybe ever! That was an un-hittable pitch. It also looked like a strike. It was just way too close to being a strike to warrant getting yourself kicked out of a game. It's just not worth it!
5.) Terry Tiffee is 0 for his last 20. He really looks lost at the plate. He may have to be sent back down to the minors to get some playing time. The Twins could call up OF Michael Ryan as a left-handed bat off the bench. He is currently hitting .325 at Rochester. The Twins have the infield depth still to fill in if there were injuries.
6.) Michael Cuddyer extended his hitting streak to 13 games with an RBI single to right. It was a big hit for the team. It was with two outs and right after Jacque Jones was ejected for taking the called third strike with a runner on third base and less than two outs.
7.) Joe Mays did OK last night. He definitely was not on his game though. Actually, he got a lot of ground balls, including double plays in three of the first four innings. But where Mays got in trouble was with his control. He was getting the ball up a little at times. Sometimes that meant walks (he had an uncharacteristic three walks), but he gave up home runs to Jody Gerut and Grady Sizemore on pitches where he missed up in the strike zone.
8.) Juan Rincon wasn't on either, but the Juan Castro error was huge in the inning, as it could have been a double play ball.
9.) Jesse Crain had his bad outing last week, but now he's back. Two perfect innings. He improves to 4-0.
10.) Joe Nathan grabbed his 13th save (in 14 attempts) with a scoreless 11th.
11.) It is interesting that in 11 innings last night, the Twins recorded just one strikeout, by Joe Nathan in the 11th. It was only Sunday when the Twins tied a team record by striking out 17 Brewers batters. Of course, that was Johan Santana and company compared to Joe Mays.
Do you have any thoughts on last night's game, or the Twins in general?? If so, e-mail me.
Here are the pitching matchups for the last two games of the series:
Wednesday - 6:05 - Carlos Silva (3-2, 3.29, 1.23, .308) vs Kevin Millwood (1-4, 3.31, 1.31, .263)
Thursday - 6:05 - Brad Radke (4-4, 3.65, 1.09, .267) vs CC Sabathia (3-3, 3.48, 1.27, .266)
ROCHESTER REDWINGS
Tuesday - REDWINGS 3, Toledo 1 - Henry Bonilla has been used both out of the pen and as a starter this year. Last night, he started and gave the Redwings five good innings for his third win. He gave up just one run on three hits and two walks. Beau Kemp pitched two shutout innings. Travis Bowyer then recorded his 10th save by pitching two scoreless innings. Glenn Williams led the offense with a 4-4 night. He hit his ninth double and fourth homer. Kevin West was 2-3 with a double.
NEW BRITAIN ROCKCATS
Tuesday - ROCKCATS - Rained Out.
FT MYERS MIRACLE
Tuesday - MIRACLE 15, Jupiter 3 - Big offensive night for the Miracle. Ben Pattee has been on fire since coming back from injury. He was 3-5 with a walk, a triple and three RBI. Denard Span was 2-5 with a walk. JR Taylor was 2-5 with walk and a double. Scott Whitrock was 2-6 with a double. Justin Arneson is back and playing and went 2-5 with a walk. Brock Peterson went 2-5 with two homers (6th and 7th) and a walk. Felix Molina was also 2-6. Adam Harben was the recipient of the run support. He gave up two runs on three hits and four walks in 6.1 innings. He struck out four. Josh Gray pitched the final 2.2 innings. He gave up a run on four hits and a walk. For Vero Beach, Andy LaRoche hit his 18th homer. It was his 7th in the last five games! Here is an interesting story on LaRoche, who was a 39th round draft pick just two years ago and has been hitting well ever since.
BELOIT SNAPPERS
Tuesday - SNAPPERS 7, South Bend 3 - The Snappers used the bullpen to pitch this game. David Shinskie started and went four innings. He gave up two runs (1 earned) on six hits and a walk. Kevin Culpepper improves to 4-1 with three innings of one-run ball. Jonathon Martinez picked up his fourth save with two scoreless innings. Chris Brown went 2-4 with a double. Deacon Burns was 2-3 with his 13th double and his 3rd home run, and he was hit by a pitch. Terrance Patterson went 2-4, and Dewayne White went 2-3.
Just a few links that I hope you'll enjoy...
Thanks to a reader who sent me this NY Times article on the effect that Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone has had on pitchers in Atlanta. There is also discussion of Mel Stottlemyre, the Yankees pitching coach. If anyone wants to take the time to do some research on the effect that Rick Anderson has had on pitchers, feel free, and I will certainly post it!
The Vikings continued their busy offseason by signing kicker Paul Edinger to a one year contract. He had been with the Bears his whole career.
I got this link from the BrentNet Forums. It is an article in the NY Times about more airport security. Remember getting those see through glasses, you know, the ones where you would tell people that you could see right through their clothes? Well, the technology is there to really do that. The debate, however, is should airports be able to use this kind of invasive devise in the name of security, or does it violate a person's right to privacy? I have to admit, I'm on the edge on this. I mean, I love the idea of being safe on a plane. But I don't want anyone seeing my "stuff" either. What do you think? E-mail me.
jclund posted an entertaining set of nursery rhymes about the Twins players yesterday. It is totally worth the read!!
Check out BrentNet today. He is running a list of his Top 100 TV Shows, in his opinion. Tuesday, he started by listing #s 76-100. Today, he posts shows #d 51-75! It's fun for me to read the shows and his thoughts on them because it just brings back a lot of memories.
Welcome Back Stick and Ball Guy! Hope Hawaii was wonderful! And Congrats on that marriage thing too! :)
Did anyone else watch Rob and Amber's Wedding on CBS last night? I watched it, but I was on the phone the whole time. Any thoughts?
Last night was the final night of American Idol performances. Tonight, we will find out who the newest American Idol is. Let's get right to the performers.
Bo Bice -
The Long, Long Road
Vehicle
Inside Your Heaven
First song - The song is just too sappy to be believable as a Bo Bice song. He finally made it his own near the end, but jus a bad song for him.
Second song - He picked it, so he better have done well. And he did. It was the right song for him to choose to show who he is and what he is as a singer.
Third Song - Carrie sang this as her first song. He started out slow as well, but I think by this time, we understand that is just how the song works. He was significantly better than Carrie with the song though. He sang just a far better version of it.
Inside Your Heaven
Independence Day
Angels Brought Me Here
First song - Not a good start at all, she sounded really nervous. She was very flat throughout the song, even on the stronger notes.
Second song - You all know by now how I feel about country music, so when I tell you that listening to her sing this song gave me chills, that should tell you how good I think she was!
Third song - She is obviously incredibly, but she just again sounded flat and nervous, and so much seemed forced. The judges completely disagreed. She is great, just not 100% on as she has been throughout the competition. One very, very impressive long note!
SethSpeaks Rankings
I will rank the two performers. I guess that, in doing this, I will be picking who I really think should be the winner, the new American Idol..
1.) Bo Bice - Vocally and his stage presence were just better than Carrie's. He is a pro, which isn't necessarily untrue, as he has been performing for years.
2.) Carrie Underwood - She is going to be very successful and make a lot of money. She's incredible!
So there you have it. I guess I would say that last night Bo Bice was the better of the two singers. However, I don't necessarily think that means he will win. I really think that the vote will be very close, and both are great, so I really don't care who wins. I have thoroughly enjoy watching (re: staring) and listening to Carrie throughout the competition. I just think that Bo Bice is really very good! Of course, that brings up the question, should American Idol have increased their age limit to 29, or left it at 25? Should Bo be eligible since he has been performing in bands for over a decade? Well, I guess all of that may factor into the vote. I am very interested in tonight's results show. It is going to be two hours. Each of the 12 finalists will be singing with some professional. Carrie Underwood will sing with Rascal Flats. Bo Bice will get to sing with Lynard Skynard. And in the end, one of the two will be the American Idol.
What do you think? Who will win? E-mail me.
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
No Tuesday entry. I am again chosing sleep as a valid option! The Twins lost to the Indians in the first of a four game series by a score of 2-1. Michael Cuddyer did have an RBI double to extend his hitting streak to 12 games. Kyle Lohse actually pitched very well again. Rochester lost 4-1 to Toledo. JD Durbin got the loss but his ERA went down again. Michael Ryan was 1-1 with a triple and three walks. He is now hitting .325. New Britain lost to Trenton 9-2. Flamethrower Justin Olson was shelled to the tune of six runs in five innings. The offense had just four hits. Fort Myers lost 11-9 to Vero Beach. Vero Beach has Andy LaRoche, younger brother of Braves 1B Adam LaRoche, and he is one of the hottest hitters in minor league baseball. He hit his 16th and 17th homers of the season last night. JR Taylor had three hits for the Miracle. Denard Span did his lead-off hitter job well with a 2-3 day and three walks. And to complete a fairly negative day for the Twins organization, Beloit fell by a score of 3-2 to Cedar Rapids in Midwest League play. The positive for the Snappers was that Trevor Plouffe went 2-3 with a walk, two RBI and his 5th stolen base.
For more Twins information, be sure to check out the blogs on the left side of the screen. There are some great ones. But I would specifically like to point out Will's Twins Page for you to check out. He recently had an interesting encounter with a Twins player, so check it out. Also, check out The Baseball Savant's site for the current Pythagorean Number update. Where will the Twins finish? Can they make the playoffs?
So, the Twins organization went 0-5 on Monday. Hopefully Tuesday will be much better! How can it not be. I mean, tonight Carrie Underwood and Bo Bice will sing for the last time, America will vote and by Wednesday night, we will have our newest American Idol.
So again, I apologize for another day off. I hope the above paragraphs suffice for the day. I would love to hear from you. Send me an e-mail if you have any questions, comments or ideas for future projects and articles. Have a great day!