Tuesday, May 1, 2007
APRIL GRADES
Good morning everybody! Thank you, as always, for stopping by the site. I hope that you find it informative but also fun. By the way, if you are looking for minor league updates and reports on last night's games (which included starts by Jeff Manship and Kevin Slowey...) click here. I posted on those last night.
As I have in previous years, I am going to try to do monthly player grades. I think that monthly is enough to have a decent amount of data. However, please remember that it is still just a sample size of data. If you look at just one month of data and make too much of it, well, then Justin Morneau would have been sent down last April, rather than turning in an MVP season. So, please take these numbers and thoughts for what they are. A quick run down tells us: There were 28 players that received grades. There were six A's, seven B's, eight C's, three D's and one F. I gave three grades of INC for obvious reasons.
So, let's take a look at the players and
see how they did in the season's first month:
THE PITCHERS
THE STARTERS
BOOF BONSER
(5 Starts, 25.2 Innings, 0-1 with a 5.26 ERA, 16 walks, 30 strikeouts, 1.60 WHIP, .347 Opponent Average, 10.5 K/9)
Boof Bonser entered the season as essentially the team's #2 pitcher behind Santana. It is very important to remember that Bonser is in his first full season in the big leagues. As good as he was for the team in September, we can't forget that he had to be sent back to Rochester twice previously. But in April, we have seen the good and the bad of Bonser. Two big things are disturbing. The walks absolutely have to come down. Bonser is a guy who will occasionally get hit around, so he can not add to that with the walks. He has also given up seven home runs. On the positive, he is averaging a lot of strikeouts per inning. I guess I would prefer that the innings per start go up and the strikeouts per nine innings go down so he can give the team some innings.
April Grade: C+
RAMON ORTIZ
(5 starts, 35.0 Innings Pitched, 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA, 6 walks, 14 strikeouts, 0.97 WHIP, .266 Opponent Average, 3.6 K/9)
The Twins could not have dreamed for a better start to the season for Ortiz. Twins fans seem to just be waiting for the 'reality' to set in with Ortiz. I mean, we are talking about a guy with a career 4.79 ERA. Maybe this is one of those situations where Rick Anderson really can work miracles. I have talked at end about how impressed I have been by Ortiz's pace, movement and aggressiveness. I really like his enthusiasm and energy. He has kept the ball down, and he has thrown strikes and kept the ball in the ballpark. I don't expect these numbers to stay this good. I am just very happy with five quality starts in five starts. He is averaging seven innings a start. No complaints so far.
April Grade: A
SIDNEY PONSON
(4 Starts, 21.1 Innings Pitched, 1-3 with a 8.44 ERA, 9 walk, 12 strikeouts, 2.06 WHIP, .429 Opponent Average, 5.1 K/9)
He got a million dollars for making the opening day roster. The rest of his salary is based on performance. He may not make much of $1 million for the year. He starts on May 1st, and that could be the last of him. He really has been bad. If it was Johan Santana pitching like this for April, you wouldn't worry. Santana has a track record. Brad Radke's April last year looked a lot like this, and yet, he had a track record of success, so you don't worry about it. Ponson's track record has been horrible and there is no reason to believe that he will get better. Aside from a start against the Yankees, he hasn't pitched against great teams. Not good! .429 batting average against? More than two base runners per inning? The Sidney Experiment needs to end.
April Grade: D-
JOHAN SANTANA
(6 Starts, 40.0 Innings Pitched, 3-2 with a 3.60 ERA, 11 walks, 45 strikeouts, 1.08 WHIP, .283 Opponent Average, 10.1 K/9)
Johan is never great in April. At one point though, he was 3-1. But ,just three of his six starts have been quality starts. In each of the non-quality starts, he gave up four runs, so he really hasn't had a "bad" start yet either. He is striking batters out. He is walking a couple too many but not totally. The WHIP is still excellent. If this is his 'bad' month, he could put up historically great numbers.
April Grade: B
CARLOS SILVA
(5 Starts, 29.0 Innings Pitched, 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA. 7 walk, 19 strikeouts, 1.52 WHIP, .352 Opponent Average, 5.9 K/9)
So far, Silva has shown that Spring Training performance means nothing. On the positive, look at the strikeouts. Maybe adding a second pitch is enough to get some strikeouts. He has a nice ERA. He has only allowed two home runs. But, although the 2-1 record and the 3.10 ERA are solid, the other numbers are a bit scary. Opponents are still getting a lot of hits against him. He is walking more than usual. The peripherals will definitely need to improve!
April Grade: B-
THE BULLPEN
(With the bullpen, I have been struggling with what these typical numbers mean. I think some of the numbers are important, but not all. Inherited Runners affect ERA, but not always in a good way. So ERA is meaningless with this few innings. So, what I did is went through the box scores and game logs of the Twins 25 April games and gave each reliever in each game a plus (for a positive outing) or a minus (for a negative outing). I am going to introduce a stat for this report just called Reliever Efficiency. It is simply a measure of quality relief efforts to total relief efforts. If this formula were to be more publicized, I think it would be good, but I think that there are a lot of variables about what constitutes a quality relief outing. How do Inherited runners affect that. How about a shutout inning with two hits and a walk? Is that a quality outing? How about a guy who, in a game where the Twins got down early provided 4 innings of two run ball to eat up innings? How about recording a save, but giving up two runs? Dennys Reyes is really the guy that made me think about this topic. He had the one game that jumped his ERA to something like 15.00. Because of limited innings, it takes forever for his ERA to drop to a respectable level. But, if he just continues to get the job done when he continues to be asked to, that number comes down eventually. The definition of "Quality Relief Appearance" is up for debate, but for today, I just did this with my opinions. This sounds like a posting all to its own, but that may be for another day, so you'll just have to go with my opinions.
JESSE CRAIN
(10 Games, 10 Innings Pitched, 1-2 with a 6.30 ERA, 2 walks, 5 strikeouts, 1.20 WHIP, Opponent Average .308, 4.5 K/9)
Crain's 'Reliever Efficiency' was 60% for April. He made ten appearances and he got the job done in six of them. What I noticed is that when he comes in for one inning, he does very well. When he comes in for that second inning is when he gets hurt. That was the case in both of his losses, one to Cleveland and Sunday to Detroit. Crain's strikeouts are down a bit from last year, but fortunately he is not walking many. Not a good month overall for Crain.
April Grade: D
MATT GUERRIER
(10 Games, 15.0 Innings Pitched, 0-0, 2.40 ERA, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts, 0.60 WHIP, .204 Opponent Average, 4.2 K/9)
Guerrier's Reliever Efficiency was 80%. Eight of his 10 appearances he got the job done. I thought Guerrier had an excellent month. He really has been the final guy in the bullpen the last couple of years, but this year Gardy is showing confidence in him and putting him in more important situations. He has come through so far. Guerrier led the Twins relief core in innings pitched. He doesn't walk or strike out anyone, but so far, opponents are not hitting him either.
April Grade: B+
JOE NATHAN
(12 Games, 12.1 Innings Pitched, 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA, 7 Saves in 7 Chances, 4 walk, 12 strikeouts, 1.62 WHIP, .370 Opponent Average, 8.8 K/9)
Joe Nathan's Reliever Efficiency for April was 75% (9-12) Despite some high level numbers that look very good, Nathan really struggled this month. He struggled with his control. His WHIP and Opponent Batting Averages are way too high. I'm not at all worried about Nathan. He has been too good and too dominant for too long. He will be fine, but he does need to get better.
April Grade: C+
PAT NESHEK
(12 Games, 12 Innings Pitched, 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 4 walk, 12 strikeouts, 0.83 WHIP, .239 Opponent Average, 9.0 K/9)
Neshek's Reliever Efficiency was 92% for the month, which was best among Twins relievers. The only game he pitched and gave up a run was the game in Seattle where Ibanez homered. Other than that, he really got the job done. Although it would be nice to walk less, because this is a small sample size, it isn't a huge concern. Opponents are not hitting him, and he has been absolutely dominant against right handed hitters. Although his numbers are a little better against righties, if you take out the Ibanez homer, his numbers against lefties would be about the same.
April Grade: A-
GLEN PERKINS
(6 Games, 8.1 Innings Pitched, 0-0 with a 4.32 ERA, 6 walk, 7 strikeouts, 1.56 WHIP, .371 Opponent Average, 7.6 K/9)
Glen Perkins should be down in Rochester starting, but the Twins did need another arm in the bullpen. Perkins' Reliever Efficiency is just 50% (3-6). His success is very much based on his control. If he doesn't walk hitters, he can and will be dominant. If he is struggling to throw strikes, then he is not as good. I suppose that Perkins could slide into the rotation if the Twins drop Ponson, but he hasn't not been stretched out yet this year, so I don't think that makes sense.
April Grade: C-
DENNIS REYES
(15 Game, 7.2 Innings Pitched, 0-0 with a 7.04 ERA, 7 walks, 7 strikeout, 2.61 WHIP, .512 Opponent Average, 8.2 K/9)
So, is his April performance an anomaly (that ties very closely to his career numbers) or was 2006 the anomaly? Of course, I have my opinion, and I'm guessing many of you agree with me. Like many others, control is the key with Reyes. The seven walks in 7.2 innings is horrible. The problem there is that there have been at least two occasions in the month where he came in two get a lefty out and walked him. He also hit a batter in that situation once. His Reliever Efficiency for April was just 60% (9-15). The positive here is the strikeouts, but look at the opponent batting average and the WHIP. Those numbers make Ponson's look like Cy Young numbers.
April Grade: F
JUAN RINCON
(10 Games, 9.2 Innings Pitched, 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA, 6 walks, 12 strikeouts, 1.66 WHIP, .356 Opponent Average, 11.2 K/9)
Juan Rincon really had a nice month. His Reliever Efficiency was 90% (9-10). He missed some time with a sore neck and a death in his wife's family. But when he was there, he was very good. That is to say, his record, ERA and strikeout rates look very good. His walks, WHIP and Opponent Average tell us that he is living on the edge a little bit.
April Grade: B+
THE HITTERS
JASON BARTLETT
(23 Games, 17-71, .239/.316/.296, 4-2B, 0-HR, 4-RBI, 3/3 SB, 7 BB, 7 K)
Defensively, Bartlett has been baffling, or at least looked baffled at times. Offensively, I wasn't real sure how to say that he has experienced a lot of bad luck and that is why his numbers don't look great year. And then I checked out Stick & Ball Guy's site and read Ubelman's PrOPS for Bartlett and it all makes sense. He has had some bad luck and I have little doubt that he will improve drastically throughout the year. From his numbers, I do like his Isolated Discipline. I like that he has as many walks as strikeouts. I think he has also been much better since his 1-20 start.
April Grade: C-
ALEXI CASILLA
(14 Games, 10-43, .233/.250/.256, 1-2B, 0-3B, 0-HR, 2-RBI, 4/4 SB, 1 BB, 8 K)
Casilla is the future at 2B for the Twins. The future had to be now for much of April because of injury to Luis Castillo. For the most part, I think that he showed that his status as a solid prospect was apparent. it is warranted. He has a lot of talent. Now that said, he also showed that he still has a lot to learn. But that shouldn't surprise Twins fans or make them think any less of him. We have to remember that he started last season at Ft. Myers and was only at New Britain for about a month when the Twins called him up. He was sent to Rochester to play this spring, and is only up because of necessity. He showed that although he likely isn't ready yet, he is very close. It is scary to think about the number of steals he could put up when he learns how to get on base more!
April Grade: C-
LUIS CASTILLO
(14 Games, 15-55, .273/.322/.309, 2-2B, 0-3B, 0-HR, 3-RBI, 2/2 SB, 4 BB, 4 K)
I don't think it would surprise anyone that Castillo missed 11 games due to injury. It tires me that Twins announcers keep talking about him as an igniter for the Twins lineup. When healthy, maybe that is the case. But as Roger points out, a guy with that kind of injury history can not be helped by playing on the cement at the Dome. I do believe that the Twins need to be a little smarter with his playing time, particularly at home.
April Grade: B-
JEFF CIRILLO
(2 Games, 1-3, .333/.500/.333, 0-2B, 0-3B, 0-HR, 1-RBI, 0/0 SB, 1 BB, 1 K)
Can't really say a lot about Cirillo so far. I mean, he played and was 1-3 with a walk. His single scored one and another runner was thrown out at home on the play. He will be fine and a help for the Twins when he comes back tomorrow. I suppose if you want to be negative, you could say that his 0-3 in his rehab game in Ft. Myers should drop his grade, huh?
April Grade: INC
MICHAEL CUDDYER
(25 Games, 29-100, .290/.333/.450, 8-2B, 1-3B, 2-HR, 17-RBI, 1/1 SB, 5 BB, 21 K)
Just think... at this time last year, Cuddyer was a part time player, playing a little in the OF, and playing first base against left-handed pitching. he had four RBI. It is exciting to see what he will do with a full season of playing time in the cleanup spot. His numbers for April were really very good. The only negative in my mind is the 21 strikeouts. I would like to see that number drop. That said, Adam Dunn has struck out 32 times already this season, so it's not so bad. He has 17 RBI and the #1 and #2 hitters are not doing a good job of getting on base yet.
April Grade: A-
CHRIS HEINTZ
(1 Games, 0-0, .000/.000/.000, 0-2B, 0-HR, 0-RBI, 0/0 SB, 0 BB, 0 K)
He did a really nice job of catching the 9th inning for the Twins that one game. Terrific!
April Grade: INC
TORII HUNTER
(23 Games, 28-86, .326/.352/.651, 13-2B, 5-HR, 18-RBI, 4/5 SB, 2 BB, 15 K)
I think it is time to face facts. Torii Hunter is pretty good. Is he still the face of the franchise? I don't think so. Is he a good player? Absolutely. I haven't even been frustrated with him yet. He is one of those rare hitters that is probably a lot better when he is aggressive and swings the bat early, rather than taking pitches. That is easy to say when he puts up a monster month like he did in April. It may not be as "great" when he is doing the same thing and hitting .160 next month, but you take the good with the bad. Speaking of bad, I thought Torii was horrible defensively in April. He came up just short so many times. He took a step back on short fly balls so many times. He's solid, just no longer a true Gold Glover. Seriously, this month was one of Torii's career bests. He leads the league in doubles with thirteen.
April Grade: A
JASON KUBEL
(20 Games, 18-69, .261/.288/.348, 6-2B, 0-HR, 12-RBI, 1/1 SB, 3 BB, 12 K)
I am happy to see that Kubel has played most every game. I am especially happy that he played a lot more as the month came to an end. I think he is another guy who is hitting the ball a lot harder than his numbers would indicate, so I'm not worried. I think the average will come up. I am a bit more concerned about the walks and strikeouts. That is pretty atypical for his career. Even with his lack of power so far, although six doubles isn't bad, his 12 RBI are pretty impressive as well for a #7 or #8 hitter.
April Grade: C
JOE MAUER
(24 Games, 31-84, .369/.465/.512, 9-2B, 1-HR, 12-RBI, 3/3 SB, 15 BB, 11 K)
I really don't know what more we can ask of Mauer. The only number on here that alarms me is 24. He has played in 24 of 25 games. I know that he just had the pinch hit at bat last weekend in Detroit. I do believe that the Twins need to make sure that Mauer gets enough time off. I know that DHing is an option, but a catcher needs a complete day off too. OK, his batting average is again excellent. His Isolated Discipline is great. He has ten extra base hits. His RBI are down, but again, the #1 and #2 hitters have not been getting on. The SBs are great for a catcher, and you know how much I love when good hitters walk more than they strikeout! It was a great start of the season for him!
April Grade: A
JUSTIN MORNEAU
(25 Games, 26-96, .271/.358/.521, 6-2B, 6-HR, 15-RBI, 0/0 SB, 13 BB, 13 K)
Morneau has played every day, and I really can't think of any reason why he shouldn't play 160 or more games. His overall numbers look really good, but it has to be pointed out that Morneau actually was pretty brutal for a week and a half in there. Again, I like the walks to strikeout numbers. He has the homers. He has the RBI. Are his numbers MVP caliber? Not yet, and they don't need to be, but let's see how they look later in the season.
April Grade: B+
NICK PUNTO
(21 Games, 18-82, .220/.304/.317, 4-2B, 2-3B, 0-HR, 5-RBI, 2/3 SB, 10 BB, 11 K)
I though Punto missed more games. That's really too bad that he only missed four. Punto has not been good with the bat. A lot of strikes taken, and more important, a lot of pop ups and weak fly balls. For Punto to have value, he has to be a line drive hitter. I like the walks, but he shouldn't strike out so much. Defensively, he is fine, of course. Offensively, I know this was a bad month, but I don't really expect much improvement in subsequent months.
April Grade: C
JOSH RABE
(7 Games, 3-21, .143/.143/.143, 0-2B, 0-HR, 1-RBI, 0/0 SB, 0 BB, 5 K)
Rabe came up to replace the injured Rondell White. He played a bit right away, but he has really struggled to put together decent at bats, so his playing time has waned. He hasn't done much with the bat, and defensively it has been hit or miss. The Crawford inside-the-park homer was a misplay. He also has shown a very weak arm. I know he is a capable 4th or 5th OF. I really do. But being a role player is tough, and getting 21 at bats in a month makes every at bat more important.
April Grade: D-
MIKE REDMOND
(14 Games, 14-54, .259/.298/.315, 3-2B, 0-HR, 10-RBI, 0/0 SB, 3 BB, 5 K)
Redmond is the backup catcher and a couple of extended periods during April, he was the primary DH. That says more about the Twins depth than about Redmond. The last two years, he has been a .300 hitter. As an every day player, with more at bats, it is more likely that his weaknesses will be exposed. In regular playing time, he isn't a .300 hitter. He doesn't walk, and he doesn't have much power. It takes a poke for him to get a double. That said, he came up with some big hits in some big situations.
April Grade: B
LUIS RODRIGUEZ
(12 Games, 7-39, .179/.256/.282, 1-2B, 1-HR, 3-RBI, 0/0 SB, 3 BB, 2 K)
Again, my biggest thing with Luis(!) is the quality of his at bats. That doesn't/can't always translate into good numbers. As you know, I like that Luis(!) walks more than he strikes out. Remember, it was almost 10 games into the season when Luis(!) got his first at bat. He did an excellent job filling in at 3B for Nick Punto, particularly with the glove. He is a fine reserve and Punto's equal.
April Grade: C-
JASON TYNER
(17 Games, 15-48, .313/.340/.396, 4-2B, 0-HR, 4-RBI, 3/4 SB, 1 BB, 3 K)
Tyner is the picture of a 4th or 5th OF. He can play all three OF positions, although he is not a sure-handed outfielder. He also puts together solid at bats. He takes pitches (although he doesn't walk), and he puts the ball in play. He had a good month in his role, hitting over .300. His playing time will be probably a little less than this most months, particularly when Lew Ford comes back and if Rondell White comes back.
April Grade: A-
RONDELL WHITE
(3 Games, 1-9, .111/.273/.111, 0-2B, 0-HR, 2-RBI, 0/0 SB, 2 BB, 1 K)
Just three games. I was really hoping White would at least be healthy this season. I thought being healthy, he would put up really good numbers. And then the calf injury. Believe me, I know those don't heal real quickly at all and he is having set backs.
April Grade: INC
So, there are my April Grade for the Minnesota Twins players. I would love to hear you thoughts or comments on any of them. Please feel free to agree or disagree and let me know why. Send me an e-mail.
|