Monday, April 4, 2005

Hello, and Happy Opening Day to all of you! (Oh, and Happy Birthday to my brother, Justin!)Yes, there was a game last night between a couple of obscure major league teams; maybe some of you watched it? I guess a lanky left-handed pitcher who throws fairly hard was pitching for his new team while a, ummm…, pudgier left-hander pitching for his new team (ironically against his old team) was pitching for the other team.

But today is the day that really matters. At bats start to matter. Every pitch counts. Teams across the country will be playing their first games of the 2005 season. Included in those games will be a game in Seattle pitting the Host Mariners against our beloved Minnesota Twins (hey, it’s my site, I can be biased, right?!). Game time is 4:05 locally. Over the past five years, I have taken Opening Day Monday afternoon off and set up two TVs side-by-side and watched baseball all afternoon. Well, since I just used a whole week’s worth of vacation for my Florida trip, I will only take two hours off, but that is enough to watch the whole Twins game.

Speaking of the Florida trip, I need to again thank all of my guest columnists. They were all great! I should maybe have guest columnists all the time because of the great e-mail response I got to them. Actually, if I’m being completely honest, I got an e-mail from my mom that read, "Hey Seth, I’ve actually read your site this week because I enjoy your guest writers." Thanks Mom!

But, if you missed any of the guest columnists, be sure to check out the entries of Rita Maloney, Corrinne Balfour, Cory Hepola and Josh Buchholz. I also want to thank The Baseball Savant, David Bergner, for taking over the American Idol thoughts for last week!

Thanks also to all of you who e-mailed me throughout the week to just say "hi" or "have a good vacation", etc. Maybe you agree that Guest Columnists are the way I should go! At this time, I will simply say that the vacation was wonderful. The quick summary is just that we spent a day at Sea World, went deep sea fishing, went to two Mets spring training games and hit the beach four afternoons. I hope to get some pictures developed and maybe put some of them on this site in story form. Keep checking for that.

Anyway, now I am back and this morning I will be wandering back into the office for another week of work! I guess it has to be done. And, with the site, I have to come back and write my own words... Soon! Today, I am going to answer my own Discussion Questions on the 2005 Twins and make some of my own predictions. Then I will let you, the readers, have some space to answer those same questions and express your thoughts and predictions on the 2005 Twins. So, let's get it started.
 

DISCUSSION QUESTION ANSWERS:

Your Thoughts on the 2005 Twins

OK, to start today, I am going to quickly re-post the questions so that I too can answer them. I love making these predictions, but you have to know that they don't mean a whole lot. I will be right on some, and wrong on probably more. Just look at my picks last year:

Seth's Thoughts

I predict that the Twins will win 92 games this year and they will win the AL Central by 2 games over the Cleveland Indians.

Of course not. First, he won't start out as poorly as he did in 2004. And also, it is unlikely, and completely unfair, to expect that he can come anywhere near what he did in the second half of the season. That all said, I would expect a far more consistent 2005 campaign for Santana. I would expect numbers around 21-7 with a sub-3.00 ERA. Will he win the Cy Young Award? That all depends on how much run support Randy Johnson gets and hence how close he actually gets to that 30 win plateau.

I think that I am one of very few who seem to think that Carlos Silva could be very good in 2005. First, he's just 25. Second, this will now be his second season as a starting pitcher. Third, he was average-at-worst last year in his first season as a starter. And fourth, he was average-at-worst in his first season as a starter basically pitching with just one pitch. If he has really developed a second, and preferably even a third pitch, he should be better. The infield defense will be very important for him though.

I hate to think that anyone would disappoint. I don't expect Brad Radke to put up as good of numbers as he did last year, but that could still translate into more wins. I am hopeful for Kyle Lohse to be able to turn things around, but am fearful of another let-down. And, Joe Mays seems to be healthy, so we will now find out what kind of pitcher he is.

Quick answer - Yes, I think he will stay healthy. Last year, they brought him back and had him catching four-five days in a row right away. This spring, they are being excessively cautious with him, and that is a good thing. Talks of him moving to third at this point are crazy. I see him catching 120 games and then DHing another 30 games or so. I see him hitting well over .300 and hit 18 homers. Hitting in the 3 spot, he could drive in 100 as well.

I have huge hopes for Morneau, and I don't see them as unreachable. I see him hitting about .280/.380/.550 with 35 homers and 110 RBI. So much was made of all of his 'ailments' in the offseason. But there really were no injuries, certainly nothing that would be considered career-threatening in any way. So, I think that he will be one of the better power hitters in the AL, and he will show to be a better overall hitter than many seem to think.

Jacque Jones will return to previous form. He actually walked more last year than he had previous years, but his overall hitting suffered. I expect Jacque to hit .290/.330/.500. I also expect him to hit close to 30 home runs. Was last year a fluke? Was he actually injured? Hey, lets be honest here. Jacque is not going to be a Minnesota Twin in 2006. Jason Kubel will be back and cheap. Jacque is playing for a big, fat 2006 (and beyond) contract.

The obvious answer is Scott Baker. The righty was fast-tracked through the Twins system last year and made a great impression in training camp. Should Lohse or Mays struggle, Baker would be the first pitcher summoned. But don't forget about JD Durbin. He struggled mightily with control and confidence in training camp, but his stuff is absolutely electric. His upside is incredible, and I fully expect him to regain it all soon in Rochester. Both are still very young and the team can afford to be patient with both of them.

Obviously health. The health of Mauer, Mays and Grant Balfour are very important. But then the secondary X-Factor becomes the minor leaguers who get called up to fill the roles for those players who do get injured. The Twins have been very successful because of this the last few years.

Rivas Finally Released; Santana Repeats; M&M Boys Power Twins to World Series Championship

 

OK, it's your turn. Here are the responses I have received so far. Please feel free to add in your two cents. E-mail me.

 

From Jonathon Lichterman 

* How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?

Twins will win 92 games and take first again in the division;

* Will Johan Santana duplicated his 2004 season?

No - impossible, but due to a better first half - his overall performance will still be outstanding. I don't look for much of a drop-off. Should contend for CY while leading league in most statistical categories incl. SO. ERA.

* Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?

Lohse will be much better against non-KC teams this year. I think having Mays pushing him in the 4th spot will help Lohse focus.

* Who will disappoint?

I think that it is hard to call someone who I expect to do poorly a disappointment, but the clear choice is Romero (will not finish the year on the Twins). I think true disappointment will be Silva who will struggle at times this year and may be at times relegated to the five slot if Lohse and Mays continue to throw the ball well. He just give up way too many hits.

* Can Joe Mauer stay healthy and, if so, what will he do this year?

Mauer will stay healthy, but will be used with over the top caution and thus his overall numbers will suffer. I look for him to appear in about 120-130 games (with many of those at DH). I look for Mauer to pulled from blowout games in the later innings to give his knee extra rest. He will probably catch no more than 110 games. If the Twins are in a tight race later in the season his workload could increase. I optimistically look for the following numbers in about 500-550 plate appearances with .305 avg/65 rbis/ 12 HRs.

* What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?

I think he will start slowly given his ailments and inactive offseason. I like his approach to hitting and he seems much better at taking what the pitcher is giving him and using all fields. I do not look for him to match his 38 HR pace of last year but should hit in the high twenties if he can stay healthy. I look for him to push 100 RBI's but probably come up just shy.

* Which hitter will step up?

I think Stewart will have a great year and will stay healthy. Bartlett will produce much like Knoblauch did in 1991. Mauer and Morneau will produce. But I think we will see the biggest jump from Cuddy.

* Who will disappoint?

Hunter (look for a repeat of last year); Jones (can't hit a leftie and Gardy will be sure to expose that on a regular basis); Rivas (is someone born to disappoint, still a disappointment?)

* Who will be the Twins leader in:

* HR: - Morneau (28)
* Batting Average: Mauer (.305)
* Stolen Bases: Bartlett (25) (Hunter would win this if he could get on base more)
* Wins: Santana (20)
* ERA: Santana (2.5)

* Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2005?

Bartlett will be the only one playing regularly so that is a no brainer.

* What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?

(1) HEALTH - Mauer's knee; Stewart's aging body; Morneau's Robert Smith-like run of mystery ailments; (2) Middle-relief - Balfour the enigma; Romero the wild; Mulholland the Methuselah; Crain repeating from last year

* What story lines are you hoping to read?

Apart from the conclusion that Twins will their third WS - I think that the compelling stories this year are so numerous given the high ceiling of this lineup, so here are a few:

1) Mauer's first full season worth the wait, bounce-back catcher finishes in top three in avg. OBP and walks;

2) Morneau belts over 30 HR for first time since 1987 for franchise

3) Rebuilt infield produces on both sides

4) Luis Rivas traded. Stock Market soars as a result of the announcement.

5) Twins rotation the best in the majors

6) Nathan repeats all-star form while the vulture continues to lurk

7) White Sox lose again, unanimously proclaim superiority over the 4 teams ahead of them in the standings, Buehrle shaves his strange facial hair in protest.

8) Twins stadium approved; Vikings sale to Fowler falls through, Taylor buys Vikings.

From Buddy Winn 

How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?
102 wins, first in AL Central

Will Johan Santana duplicated his 2004 season?
YES! Cy Young repeat

Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?
Mays, Rincon

Who will disappoint?
J.C. Romero - no signs of improving on previous inconsistency

Can Joe Mauer stay healthy and, if so, what will he do this year?
No, ending up at third when Cuddy can't cut it, Redmond steps up at C.

What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?
He'll continue to boom the ball!

Which hitter will step up?
LeCroy and Jones

Who will disappoint?
Hunter - bat doesn't measure up to glove.

Who will be the Twins leader in:
o HR: Mauer
o Batting Average: Ford or Stewart
o Stolen Bases: Rivas
o Wins: Santana
o ERA: Santana

Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2005?
Matt Guerrier

What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?
Starting Pitching

What storylines are you hoping to read?
"Stewart Hit Streak at 46"
"Twins take Game 7 from Cubs"
"Gardenhire AL Manager of the Year"

From Dave Anderson

1. How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?

93, first place

2. Will Johan Santana duplicate his 2004 season?

Roughly yes. # Ws is hard to project, but if healthy Santana will do the 250 strikeouts and low ERA and WHIP yet again. The thing that makes Johan's season replicable was his 5+ ERA start in 04. He'll never have a 1.0 ERA for half a season again (remember, Scott Erickson had a superhuman run for the TWINS once too). Johan will hold up better than Scott Erickson and remain an elite #1 starter.

3. Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?
Joe Mays

4. Who will disappoint?
Carlos Silva. The man won 14 games while giving up 255 base hits with only 76 strikeouts? Inconceivable! Let's hope rumors are true he's developing another pitch, or two, or three.

5. Can Joe Mauer stay healthy and, if so, what will he do this year?
I've personally examined his meniscus and.... Okay, seriously he'll mostly be fine and will do substantial DH time as well. He'll hit .320 with 25 homers, the best thing we've seen since Kirby Puckett.

6. What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?
I think his slow spring will continue into the season. Although his system-wide physical breakdown during the offseason is disturbing in light of the ROID guys, I assume he's clean and just had some bad luck. Someone, give this guy some vitamins! I think he'll hit .270, with 28 home runs, mostly in the second half.

7. Which hitter will step up?
Jason Bartlett will be a jewel in the #2 spot, hitting .290 with extra bases and close to 100 runs scored, earning the nickname "ROY".

8. Who will disappoint?
Mike Cuddyer. He hits well every spring, then struggles to hit .260 with some pop. I hope I'm wrong about him and that he'll actually be an upgrade from Corey Koskie.

9. Who will be the Twins leader in:
HR: Torii Hunter (upset: players with speed age well)
Batting Average: Joe Mauer, first of many times
Stolen Bases: Matt Lecroy. I mean, Jason Bartlett.
Wins: Johan Santana
ERA: Juan Rincon

10. Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2005?
Scott Baker won't set the major leagues on fire, but he will run out of things to prove in the minors and will become a serviceable 5th starter, long relief guy.

11. What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?
#3 and #4 starters. If two of the three back end guys (Silva, Mays, Lohse) can bear down and win 14, this team could win 100 games. Besides the X-factor, there's the "JM" factor -- if Joe Mays, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau all have healthy full seasons, the Twins will finally have the talent level to compete with the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels.

12. What storylines are you hoping to read?
(Top 10)
"Rivas finds niche as utility infielder - in Japan"
"Joe Mays finally pays dividends on 3 year contract"
"White Sox admit inferior talent"
"Balfour changes last name to Grant Groundertoshort"
"Twins front office actually willing to trade (minor league) talent at mid-season to gear up for a postseason run, after all that's what it's for"
"Twins draw someone besides Yankees for first playoff round"
"Twins advance to AL championship series using balanced attack."
"Minor league arms continue to ensure future winning seasons."
and finally... "Joe Mauer making any headlines not involving his meniscus."

From Jim Mohl

How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?
88. First.

Will Johan Santana duplicated his 2004 season?
The result will be similar (22-8), but he will take a different path to get there: 14-3 in the first half, 8-5 post-ASB. He will tire in July & August, but come back strong in September.

Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?
Radke 15-8, Lohse 13-10, Mays 11-9.

Who will disappoint?
Silva 7-13

Can Joe Mauer stay healthy and, if so, what will he do this year?
Yes. .285/.340/.425. 22 HR, 88 RBI.

What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?
.270/.330/.490. 44 HR, 110 RBI.

Which hitter will step up?
Cuddyer .280/.340/.410.

Who will disappoint?
Rivas (of course). Also Stewart (injured again).

Who will be the Twins leader in:
HR: Morneau
Batting Average: LEWWWWWWWWWWWW! (.310)
Stolen Bases: LEWWWWWWWWWWWW! (27)
Wins: Who else?
ERA: Who else? (2.85)

Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2005?
Bartlett

What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?
Health (always)

What storylines are you hoping to read?
Santana wins All-Star Game on Morneau Homer. Twins Defeat Yanks 4-3 for AL Pennant.

From Roger

- The Twins will win their division with 93 wins (much more competition in division this year)

- Santana's record will be a little better than last, although spread evenly throughout year, he will finish 23-5.

- Radke's pitching will equal last year, however, he will get 17 wins...Jesse Crain will develop into their top set-up man.

- Joe Mays will be a disappointment.

- Mauer will be relatively healthy, and play about 130 games at catcher.

- Morneau will start slowly...finish with 31 homers and 105 rbi's.

- Mauer...he will lead the team in hitting at .345.

- Lew Ford...will hit about .280 and end up sharing DH with Matt LeCroy.

- Leaders...Morneau-31 HR's...Mauer-.345...Bartlett-33 sb...Santana-23 wins...Santana-1.57 era.

- Bartlett...The minor leaguer that will have the biggest impact that isn't on the opening day roster will be Dave Gassner...who will win about 7-8 games as a replacement for Mays mid-season.

Also, I was thinking the biggest surprise of the year may be Nick Punto. I really believe that Punto will start at second by late May...and that he will be an excellent hitter. All the bloggers don't give him much credit, but he has never had the opportunity of playing regularly. If he can stay healthy, I believe he will hit close to .300 and be one of those scrappy players the opposition hates. Kinda like the shortstop the Angels had a couple of years ago (Note - David Eckstein, who is now with the St. Louis Cardinals). Anyway, he sure would be a better alternative in the 9th slot than Rivas who is probably in his last year as a Twin unless something changes.

- Lack of ego's.

From Dave Rogge

How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?
The Twins will win the A.L. Central with a record of 95-67

Will Johan Santana duplicated his 2004 season?
Yes. Although I don't think he will have a run duplicating the second half of '04 - his overall numbers will look very similar and he will actually have a much more solid overall season. I agree with your prediction that Mr. Santana will once again win the A.L. Cy Young.

Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?
Radke, who seems to be getting better and better over the last couple of years - I expect him to be even better than last year. Silva, I think he will have a much better season than last year and will grow into an "above average" starting pitcher. Lohse and Mays - I won't touch that with a ten foot pole, way too unpredictable. As far as the bullpen goes, I expect them to be among the league's best once again.

Who will disappoint?
J.C. Romero - I expect him to not only disappoint, but be shipped off before the deadline. The faster they get rid of him the better - he will be a disaster.

Can Joe Mauer stay healthy and, if so, what will he do this year?
I wish I could answer that, and I really, really wish I didn't have to think of it. If he does stay healthy, he will be one of the top hitters in the game this year. Predicted numbers: .319 BA, 19 HR, 104 RBIs, .423 OBP and his first All-Star appearance.

What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?
I have thought all along Morneau will be a better hitter for average than people give him credit for. I think not only will he smash 40+ HRs, I also think his BA and OBP will be a pleasant surprise. Predicted numbers: .288 BA, 41 HR, 121 RBIs, .350 OBP - no All-Star though this year. I think the second half is when he will really start tearing things up.

Which hitter will step up?
Michael Cuddyer - No-brainer here in my book. He FINALLY will get to play every day and will become a star. He will hit for average, power and round out one of the most balanced top-to-bottom line-ups in baseball. Predicted numbers: .297 BA, 27 HR, 92 RBIs.

Who will disappoint?
I think Rivas will definitely be the easy out in this lineup, however it's not really a disappointment when you suck anyway.

Who will be the Twins leader in:
HR: 1. Justin Morneau - 41; 2. Torii Hunter - 31; 3. Michael Cuddyer - 27
Batting Average: 1. Joe Mauer - .319; 2. Shannon Stewart - .302; 3.
Lew Ford - .300
Stolen Bases: 1. Torii Hunter - 31(I predict a 30/30 season from him too); 2. Jason Bartlett - 23; 3. Lew Ford - 20
Wins: 1. Johan Santana - 22; 2. Brad Radke - 17; 3. Carlos Silva - 14
ERA: SP: Santana - 2.24; RP: Joe Nathan - 1.27

Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2005?
Scott Baker

What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?
Mays and Lohse - if they pleasantly surprise us and have a great season, this team could really be special, considering that the offense is going to take a big step forward this year.

What storylines are you hoping to read?
1.) "Joe Mauer Named Reserve in All-Star Game"; 2.) "J.C. Romero Traded to XXXXX"; 3.) "Bartlett Closing in on ROY"; 4.) "1987-2005 - The Drought is Over: Morneau Hits Number 30"; 5.) "Rookie Scott Baker Shines in First Big-League Start"; 6.) "Better Late than Never: Cuddyer Living Up to Past Hype"; 7.) "TWINS WIN WORLD SERIES!"

From Troy Sims

a. How many Wins will the Twins record this year?
Where will they place in the division? 93

b. Will Johan Santana duplicated his 2004 season?
He will better it. 20+ wins with a full season of greatness.

c. Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?
Lohse can't get any worse, I think Silva could do better as well... marginally.

d.. Who will disappoint?
Mays, he had one fluke season. Expect Mulhulland and probably Scott Baker to man the 5 hole soon.

e. Can Joe Mauer stay healthy and, if so, what will he do this year?
Yes, if his workload is closely monitored. .310/.380/.475

f. What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?
.280/.350/.515 34 HR

g. Which hitter will step up?
Cuddyer. I've been waiting 2 years for this.

h.. Who will disappoint?
Rivas. He's craptastic!

i.. Who will be the Twins leader in:
a.. HR: Morneau
b.. Batting Average: Mauer
c.. Stolen Bases: Bartlett
d. Wins: Santana
e. ERA: Santana

j.. Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2005?
Scott Baker. He's going to be Brad Radke Jr.

k.. What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?
Left side of infield.

l. What storylines are you hoping to read?
Rivas traded to White Sox for 2 marginal Low A prospects.

From Greg Sifferle

1. How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?
*The Twins will have there best season in a while winning 95 games and winning both the Central division and home field advantage for the first round of the playoffs

2. Will Johan Santana duplicated his 2004 season?
*Santana may not repeat the great second half from last year but he will have a much better first half giving him a better season as a whole. I see him winning 22 games.

3. Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?
*As a starter I think Mays will have a good year giving the twins a solid rotation.

4. Who will disappoint?
*Lohse will have a better year then last year but will still pitch below his potential.

5. Can Joe Mauer stay healthy and, if so, what will he do this year?
*I think he can stay healthy if he does not overdue it. He will emerge as one of the great young players in the major leagues.

6. What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?
* Slow start preventing him from hitting forty homers, but he will come around and have a good year for power.

7. Which hitter will step up?
*This is going to be the breakout year for Michael Cuddyer.

8. Who will disappoint?
*Lew Ford. Since now every major league pitcher has read the book How to Get Out Lew Ford in Four Pitches he will struggle. If he does not make serious adjustments in his approach to hitting he will have a bad year. By mid-year the DH spot will be filled by LeCroy and Mauer.

9. Who will be the Twins leader in:
*HR: Morneau (35), Cuddyer (30)
*Batting Average: Mauer (.315), Bartlett (.310), Stewart (.305)
*Stolen Bases: Bartlett (25)
*Wins: Santana (22), Radke (17)
*ERA: Santana (2.95)

10. Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2005?
* Bartlett will have a great year and be rookie of the year
* If they lose a starting pitcher Baker will be a very good replacement

11. What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?
* Stay healthy. I don't remember a string of years where twins have had so many injuries. If this team can stay healthy at the critical positions there is no stopping them.

12. What storylines are you hoping to read?
* Bartlett wins Rookie of the year.
* Knee? What knee?

Thank you to everyone who took the time to contribute their thoughts to this posting. I really do appreciate. And, the most fun part about making these preseason predictions is that we can take a look at them at the All-Star break and then again at the end of the season and see if we were even close! I hope you’ve enjoyed this, and if you would like to contribute your thoughts, please e-mail me today and I will add your predictions to the bottom of the others as I receive them.

 

That's it for today. Have a great Monday and a wonderful week!

 

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