Monday, April 3, 2006

Weekend Notes

BANJO BROTHERS

PREDICTION CONTEST:

Your Thoughts on the 2006 Twins

Hello, and Happy Opening Day to all of you!
I assume everyone saw SBG's News from over the weekend. If not, be sure to check it out!

It is so strange to me that the Twins are not playing today. I don't ever remember the Twins not playing on Opening Day Monday that my assumption was that the Twins opened this year as well. Guess not! So, we have to wait another day.

CHRIS COSTE UPDATE - Speaking of waiting for another day, it is with sadness and disappointment that I report that Chris Coste was sent down to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre yesterday despite an incredible spring. As of Saturday evening, I was bout 80% certain that Coste would be with the Phillies to open up the season. However, about an hour or so later, shortly before the 11:00 central time deadline for setting rosters, the Phillies traded Pitcher Robinson Tejeda and minor league OF Jake Blalock (yes, Hank's brother) to the Rangers for OF David Dellucci. The move, coupled with the fact that David Bell will start the season on the roster, not on the DL, and Coste was out of a roster spot. So was Tomas Perez who was subsequently released from the organization. I'm trying to think of this somewhat objectively which, as you can imagine, is rather difficult. The Phillies wanted a fifth OF. Dellucci likely becomes their fourth OF with Shane Victorino now being the 5th OF. So, why would the Phillies give up a very good pitching prospect and a decent hitting prospect in Blalock for a guy who likely will not play ahead of Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu or Aaron Rowand. Reading about the Coste disappointment at the Official Phillies site was really tough. You just can't help but feel for him. This was his chance, and the GM and Manager decided to go a different direction. Sure, they can say all the right things now about giving him a shot if this or if that happens, but he still is not on the 40 man roster, so that is all very empty.

A hard day: Not every Spring Training story has a happy ending, and Chris Coste became a victim of the club not having enough roster room.

The addition of outfielder David Dellucci completed the Phils' bench and ended Coste's magical Spring Training without the desired result. The 33-year-old career Minor Leaguer hit .463 this spring with three homers, and he did everything to make the club but sell peanuts and popcorn in the stands.

He said all spring that he wanted to at least get on the radar for possible future consideration, and he's done that.

"Small consolation," said Coste, his eyes tearing up. "The chance to play ... That was the big thing."

Highly emotional, Coste -- who was reassigned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre -- cut the pregame session short, and walked away from reporters and wasn't available after the game.

"He's kind of upset right now, and probably has a right to be because of what he did and what he showed us," manager Charlie Manuel said. "He's in a better position now than he was before he came to Spring Training, whether he realizes it or not."

"The guy hit close to .500 all spring, then didn't make the club," said general manager Pat Gillick. "It's tough. None of these situations are easy when you have to disappoint people, and it's especially disappointing for a guy who's 33 and did all he could. We just decided that Dave Dellucci was a better fit for our club than Chris, but it wasn't easy.

"You could tell by his body language that it was a kick in the stomach."

I guess there was a game last night. Hey, the AL Central took center stage! The way it should be! Of course, a three hour rain delay probably means that several of you missed the 431 foot shot by Jim Thome? That was impressive! Brandon McCarthy looked very good too!

Speaking of the weekend, I spent most of it trying to find my driveway. Even now, Sunday night, it is unpassable. I assume I will be able to get to work tomorrow... I hope! But I was also on WCCO Radio, on Sports Saturday with Rita Maloney. I was on-air from about 5:10 until about 5:45. We talked about several topics, from Jason Bartlett's demotion and naming Juan Castro starting shortstop (worst decision I have seen with the Twins of late!) to Tony Batista; from the right field situation to the 5th starter situation. We discussed most of the big league teams using my divisional predictions, and we also talked some fantasy baseball. It was a lot of fun. I think I can also announce that I will again be one of the Twins bloggers that will be on the Bloggers Moment during the Twins Magazine Show before Saturday games. My first appearance on the show will be this Saturday (April 8th).

OK, let's get to our contest...

BANJO BROTHERS

PREDICTION CONTEST:

Your Thoughts on the 2006 Twins

As in previous seasons, Opening Day at SethSpeaks.net is a day for my thoughts on the 2006 Twins season. But not just mine, we also like to get the reader's views on the upcoming season. This year, we were fortunate to have a little twist to the Prediction posting as Banjo Brothers were kind enough to donate a Messenger Bag to one of the contributors. So, what I did is put each entrant's name into a baseball cap and pulled out the winner.

Here were my thoughts going into the 2004 season. Here were my thoughts going into the 2005 season. 

1. How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?

2. How good will Johan Santana be this year? Another Cy Young?

3. Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?

4. Which pitcher will disappoint?

5. Will this be Radke's last year? Will Silva Win or Walk more than 10?) How long does Lohse stay in the rotation? How do Baker and Liriano perform?

6. Joe Mauer has so much potential. What will he do this year?

7. What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?

8. Which hitter will step up?

9. Which hitter will disappoint?

10. What are your thoughts on the new players?

11. Who will be the Twins leader in:

    • HR:

    • Batting Average:

    • OPS:

    • Stolen Bases:

    • Wins:

    • ERA:

12. Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2006? (please include one that is not named Francisco Liriano or Jason Kubel, however, feel free to discuss both)

13. What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?

14. What storylines are you hoping to read?

Again, thank you to Banjo Brothers for their willingness to share a gift with the winner of our contest. Be sure to check out their website and other products. Please think them over and then send me an e-mail with your answers/response.

Seth's Thoughts

• How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?

Well, when I did my Twins predictions in January, I calculated the Twins to have a 92-70 record. That was based on runs runs and runs allowed projections that I had compiled. Those numbers were then put into the Pythagorean Formula to come up with 92 wins. A week ago, I thought that the Twins could still come close to those numbers. I do think that the team made a few improvements over last  year's team. However, with Friday's announcement that Juan Castro had beaten out Jason Bartlett for the starting shortstop position, I have to alter my thinking. With that kind of intelligent "leadership" shown by the Twins manager, I now think that the Twins will struggle to get to .500. So, now I predict that they will finish 80-82, tied with the Tigers for third place in the AL Central. 

• How good will Johan Santana be this year? Another Cy Young?

Of course, I believe that Johan will be great. He will be one of the best in the league. Of course, his win total is difficult to predict. It depends on run support and bullpen help, and other things. I think another 20 win season is possible. I think that he should post a sub-3.20 ERA and a WHIP below 1.05. In other words, he will be one of the best, but as we saw last year, Cy Young voters don't care about such things, only those Win totals.  

• Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2006?

I don't know about anyone else, but I actually believe that Kyle Lohse will take another step forward in his development. I'm not saying that he will have a Jon Garland-type season this year. However, I do think that he can win 15 with enough support. I would also like to see him drop his ERA below 4.00.

• Which pitcher will disappoint?

Last year, I was one who really thought that Carlos Silva would surprise people and do well in his second season. He was great last year. Because of his inability to strike out many, and the fact that hitters hit close to .300 against him. I still think that he can be alright, just don't expect him to duplicate his 2005 numbers. He may even walk double-figure hitters over the year.

• Will this be Radke's last year? Will Silva Win or Walk more than 10?) How long does Lohse stay in the rotation? How do Baker and Liriano perform?

The more I hear and read, I really do believe that this will be the last year of Radke's career. I hope he can stay healthy and have a nice final season. Silva will win and win more than 10. I actually think that he will walk more than he will win this year! If my thought for the step-it-up pitcher is Lohse, my assumption is that he will spend the whole season with the Twins. However, if the team is out of contention, and he is doing well, I think he will be traded. I think Scott Baker can be an above average pitcher, and I think he will be. Liriano should absolutely dominate in relief, and I think that at some point, he will be given a sot in the rotation.

• Joe Mauer has so much potential. What will he do this year?

.320/.400/.500. Lots of doubles, 12-15 home runs. Great defensive catcher. Great with the pitching staff. I know a lot of people want him to add more power to his repertoire, but I only hope he does if he doesn't give up any other phase of his game.

• What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?

Last year, I predicted .280 with 35 homers and 110 RBI. He was not good. Didn't hit for average, and his 23 home runs seemed disappointing. If he can just get rid of the poor at bats, then I think my 2005 Morneau predictions could come to fruition... in 2006. I think that expectations are down this year, but I would still think .270 with 30 homers and 90 RBI is very realistic.

• Which hitter will step up?

I was going to say Bartlett, but, I guess that isn't going to be the case from the start of the season. In that case, I will say that Rondell White will come through with a very strong season. His only problem throughout his career has been staying healthy. As DH, I hope he can do just that because if he does, he is a key to the middle of the Twins lineup.

• Which hitter will disappoint?

Would it even be fair to say that Tony  Batista and Juan Castro will disappoint offensively? I mean, both are horrible, so I really don't expect a lot from them in the first place. In that case, I think that the hitter most likely to disappoint is Shannon Stewart. I hope that he will have a strong season in his free agent year, but he was the worst leadoff hitter in the AL in 2005, so it is also possible that his career is on the down slope, in part because of his injury history. I hope I am wrong!

• What are your thoughts on the new players?

Really like the Castillo signing. So many want power and home runs, but last year, the Twins did not have enough guys just get on base. Castillo has always done that, and assuming health, he should continue to do as such. I love the Rondell White signing as well. Yes, the names of Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza may have been out there too, but it isn't about getting a big name, it's about picking the right name! I think Rondell was that guy. Tony Batista... of course I think it was a horrible signing. Don't really want to discuss it here any more other than to say that I hope when he is not performing (which he won't) that the Twins rid themselves of him quickly.

• Who will be the Twins leader in:

  • HR: Justin Morneau (33)

  • Batting Average: Joe Mauer (.318)

  • OPS:  Justin Morneau (.931)

  • Stolen Bases: Torii Hunter (19), Lew Ford (16)

  • Wins: Johan Santana (19)

  • ERA: Johan Santana (2.89)

   

• Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2006? (please include one that is not named Francisco Liriano or Jason Kubel, however, feel free to discuss both)

Well, both Liriano and Kubel are on the Twins Opening Day roster, so neither is a minor leaguer anyway. I do need to say that I hope that Kubel gets regular playing time if he is with the Twins. He is too good to be a bench player, a pinch hitter, a reserve in any way. Also, with different rumors that I have heard, let's not be surprised if Glen Perkins gets a shot of some kind during the season. I also think that Alex Romero and Pat Neshek will both get a chance. And hopefully (hopefully!) Jason Bartlett will be back up and playing soon!

• What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?

The obvious choice this year is Justin Morneau. With how disappointing he was last year, his emergence as a star, or at least a consistent performer, is key. However, I am going to say that the X-Factor is Ron Gardenhire. Again, the Barlett/Castro decision only makes me worry about Gardy's ability to get the best out of players. In his tenure, have we really seen anyone really take a big step forward? At least with Tom Kelly, he would get the best out of guys like Shane Mack and Brian Harper. Gardy is just as awful in dealing with rookies as his predecessor was and we have seen that time and again. It will be very interesting to see how the RF situation plays itself out, and what that means for Jason Kubel. It will also be interesting to see how many times he makes Luis Castillo bunt, or how frequently he decides to hit-and-run with Joe Mauer. When it comes to field managing, I think it is fair to say that the Twins do not have the best!

• What storylines are you hoping to read?

Fire Sale Continues, Young Aces (the Liriano, Baker and Perkins story), Cy Santana, Lohse takes Bat to GM's Office Door, Hunter to Halos, 

OK, it's your turn. Here are the responses I have received so far. I have not edited anything, and will leave it as it was sent to me, regardless of anything. If you would like your predictions/thoughts posted, you can still send me an E-mail me. You obviously won't be eligible for the contest, but it will be posted and you can have your predictions available when we look back at this at the All-Star break, or following the season.

Let's start with the winner of our Banjo Brothers contest, the winner of a Messenger Bag, Michael Richter. 

From Michael Richter

1. Twins wins - 90; Place in division - 2nd (behind Indians)
2.  Santana will go 22-6 with a 2.87 ERA and 230 K and win another Cy Young
3. Baker and Liriano will step up
4. Silva will be a disappointment
5. This will be Radke's last year. Silva will win and walk more than 10. Lohse stays in the rotation until July. Baker is going to be excellent in his starting role from the start of the season and Liriano will pitch well out of the bullpen.
6. Joe Mauer - .320 15 90
7. Justin Morneau .285 35 110
8. Hitter to step up  (besides Mauer and Morneau)- Michael Cuddyer
9. Hitter to disappoint - (besides the obvious Tony Batista) Shannon Stewart
10. New players - like Castillo dislike Batista a lot
11. Twins leaders
HR: Morneau
AVG: Mauer
OPS: Morneau
Stolen Bases: Castillo
Wins: Santana
ERA: Nathan
12. Minor Leaguer - Alex Romero
13. X-factor - ability for Morneau to bounce back and how quickly Batista gets taken out of the starting lineup
14. Storylines: Johan wins another Cy Young. Liriano makes a run for rookie of the year. Cuddyer takes back third base. Twins win the AL Central.

From Beau Sorrell 

• 88-74.  2^nd place behind the Indians.  No Wild Card.

• Johan will, of course, be excellent, and will not get injured.  Gardy will find him a way to get 20 wins if at all possible, and with likely improved run support, I see it happening.  A record 20-8 is reasonable, with an ERA around 2.90 and a WHIP of 1.07.  I think he will get the Cy Young if he gets that 20^th win, as long as Halliday doesn’t go crazy and get 24 wins or something.

• I don’t see Radke, Silva, or Lohse getting any better than last year, but I don’t see much of a dropoff either.  Same with the relievers…except possibly Guerrier (sp?) I don’t see room for much improvement from the pitching staff.  I see Crain and Rincon getting worse.

• Rincon and Crain, as mentioned.  They’ll be serviceable, but not lights out like last year.  People with be disappointed with Lohse, but he’ll be about league average as he was last year.

• It will be Radke’s last year.  Considering he’s thinking about retiring already, his shoulder injury in July that will limit him to only a couple of starts in the second half will convince him to hang it up for good.  To that point, though, he’ll still be Radke.  Horrible in the 1^st inning, above average the rest of the way.  A record of about 7-8 with a good ERA and WHIP sounds right.

• Silva will win and walk more than 10.

• Lohse will not be traded during the year, but could be demoted to long relief if he pitches horribly.  If he does well, Liriano will stay in the bullpen until Radke gets injured. 

• Baker will be around league average, with a few awesome games to get the media’s attention.  Liriano will remind us of a young Randy Johnson.

• He’ll perform better in just about every category except (hopefully) stolen bases.  His success rate will be good because he’s intelligent, but he’ll try less often.  With Castillo in front of him and an improved offense behind him, he’ll increase his power numbers.  310/400/480 is a good bet if he doesn’t have any nagging injuries (which I don’t think he will).  Even if he doesn’t improve, he’ll go at least 290/375/430, which is still good for a catcher.

• He’ll have a Corey Koskie type offensive year, with about 28 homers.  He can’t do much worse than last season.

• Rondell White will have a monster season compared to previous Twins DH’s, and will hit better than his career average.  If Bartlett is allowed to play consistently, I think he’ll hit about league average, which we haven’t had a SS do since 2001 Guzman.

• Shannon will do better than last year, but will have nagging injuries and still not come close to his career average. 

• Kubel will do okay after a call-up, but not well enough to impress Gardy.  Right Field will be a mess with Cuddyer, Ford, and Kubel all playing sporadically.

  • HR:  Morneau, with Hunter close behind.  White will have a couple of great months, but will hit more doubles than anyone. 
  • Batting Average:  Mauer.
  • OPS:  Mauer, but Rondell will give him a run if he doesn’t get hurt. 
  • Stolen Bases:  Probably Mauer!  LOL.  Actually, it’s hard to pick against Castillo, despite his age.  Either him or Hunter.  But I think Hunter will start getting caught more often this year which will scare him a bit.  So…the official prediction is Castillo.
  • Wins:  Santana
  • ERA:  Santana

• Ehhh….I’ll get back to you.

• Radke’s arm.  Even with Liriano to step in, I don’t think it’ll be good for the psyche of the pitching staff if they lose Brad.  Considering our relievers will probably be closer to average than they have been in a while, having a thin starting rotation could hurt us.  Also, if Ron-DL gets injured for a long period, I think we’re SOL unless Kubel explodes.

• Gardenhire replaced at the helm by local chimpanzee.

• Bartlett says, “It’s weird playing without this nagging sensation.”

• Terry Ryan reports than while Punto tries really hard, he still sucks.

• Hunter flanked by Ford and Kubel and doesn’t complain about there being no Soul Patrol.

From Armadillo

How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?
 

I think they will be in the neighborhood of 90 wins this year. While I don't think one would be wise to predict them to finish first but if things go right for them they will be very good and have as good of chance as anyone. The best teams are always the ones who get the breaks, avoid injuries, and have young players step up. I'm always optimistic this time of the year so I'll say they win 94 games and take the division.

How good will Johan Santana be this year? Another Cy Young?

If they win 94 games and the division then I can't imagine Johan not being at least strong candidate once again. Even if they have a bad year I think he will still have a good year. One thing I think will happen is that he will get more dominate earlier this year then the last couple seasons.

Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2006?

Scott Baker will be a nice surprise (though I think a lot of people already thing he'll do well). I think Guerrier will also take on a more prominent role and do well. Also Crain’s strikeouts will start to improve and I can see him taking over the eighth inning role if Rincon struggles early.

Which pitcher will disappoint?

Lohse will be the same story again. I've actual had a few chances to see him pitch last year and he even looked pretty good at times usually pitching good for four innings or so. Then it seems like he'd fall apart. I can only imagine that he either starts to get tired or the hitters start to figure him out and he doesn't make the adjustments. In any case I don't think he'll be any different this year.

Will this be Radke's last year? Will Silva Win or Walk more than 10?) How long does Lohse stay in the rotation? How do Baker and Liriano perform?

I kind of think it will be Radke's last year. Just a gut feeling but I guess if it was me and I had a family and was financially set like he is I would retire. Time is money. Silva will both win and walk more then 10 though neither number will be much greater. Lohse will get traded for next to nothing around the all-star break after a disappointing first half. Baker will really establish himself as part of the staff. Liriano will do well in the pen and show flashes of brilliance when moved to a starter but won't be as consistent as Baker or the rest of the staff.

Joe Mauer has so much potential. What will he do this year?

I think Mauer will show a bit of offensive improvement though I don't see him developing a lot of power. More doubles and rbi's thanks to a better line up (hitting behind White and after Castillo).

What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?

I know we all had high hopes last year for Morneau but mine are actually pretty high again this year. He's healthy and seems to have a better mindset this year. I think he'll end up hitting 30-40 homers and raise the average a bit to around 285.

Which hitter will step up?

Like I just said, Morneau will have a breakout year. I think White will also be a big key in the lineup and these two will make the rest of the lineup better (especially Hunter).

Which hitter will disappoint?

Batista is the easy answer but are we really expecting much out of him? Stewart is the hitter that I think will most fail to meet expectations.

What are your thoughts on the new players?

White will stay healthy overall and really have a positive impact on the lineup (been a while since we had a consistent DH). Castillo is actually the one I can see getting injured (gut feeling again) but the time he does play will balance out Stewarts lack of production. Batista won't have a huge impact. His defense is actually what I think may get him moved from the starting lineup mid season.

Who will be the Twins leader in:

HR: Morneau
Batting Average: White
OPS: Morneau
Stolen Bases: Hunter
Wins: Santana
ERA: Santana

Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2006? (please include one that is not named Francisco Liriano or Jason Kubel, however, feel free to discuss both)

Dave Gassner??? Not really sure. Kubel will do ok when he plays (something like what we got out of Morneau last year). Like I said before Liriano will look great at times but not be consistent when starting.

What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?

Health. If everyone is healthy they will have a great pitching staff and a better offence making them hard to beat.

What storylines are you hoping to read?

"Twins are World Series Champs"

From Nick Nelson

    *How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?

I'm saying they will go 92-70 and finish second to the Indians in the division.

    *How good will Johan Santana be this year? Another Cy Young?

I think Santana will be very solid... something in the range of 19-8 with a 2.90 ERA, but he'll finish second to Roy Halladay in the CY Young voting

    *Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?

Francisco Liriano will be a stud once he steps into the starting rotation. Joe Nathan will have an excellent year, more like his 2004 form.

    *Which pitcher will disappoint?

Brad Radke is going to have a tough year I fear.  Carlos Silva will regress a bit.  Jesse Crain is going to have a very tough year if he doesn't increase his K rate.

    *Will this be Radke's last year? Will Silva Win or Walk more than 10?) How long does Lohse stay in the rotation? How do Baker and Liriano perform?

As aforementioned, Liriano will be great.  Baker will be solid but not spectacular.  Lohse is in the rotation until he gets traded, which will most assuredly happen unless the offense is greatly improved.  This will be Radke's last year.  Silva will probably win and walk around 10.

    *Joe Mauer has so much potential. What will he do this year?

I foresee a great year for Mauer.  Something along the lines of .300/.375/.450 with 15 HR and 80 RBI.

    *What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?

Ideally I'd like to see him hit .270 with around 28 HR and 85 RBI.  I'll predict that because I'm optimistic.

    *Which hitter will step up?

Jason Bartlett will have a good year if Ron Gardenhire will get off his back and let him play.

    *Which hitter will disappoint?

Michael Cuddyer will disappoint anyone who thinks he's in for a breakout year.

    *What are your thoughts on the new players?

Love Rondell White, good solid hitter who is great with RISP.  I like his chances to stay healthy and be very productive in the cleanup spot this year.  I like Luis Castillo alright, I'm a little skeptical about his health and think his numbers will see a little decline on the turf, but he should do fine.  I'm not big on Batista, but I'm not as down on him as some either.  If he hits .240/.290/.450 with 25 HR and plays good D I'd be fine with him.

    *Who will be the Twins leader in:
          o HR: Morneau
          o Batting Average: Mauer
          o OPS: Mauer
          o Stolen Bases: Hunter
          o Wins: Santana
          o ERA: Santana
 

    *Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2006? (please include one that is not named Francisco Liriano or Jason Kubel, however, feel free to discuss both)

I don't see much impact from any minor leaguers other than Liriano or Kubel; however, I do think Willie Eyre will be a reliever with the club all year and should do well.

    *What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?

Two things:  Shannon Stewart needs to get his performance back on track and get on base in front of Castillo and Mauer.  Also, Rondell White needs to stay healthy and produce in the middle of the lineup.

    *What storylines are you hoping to read?

"Twins Finally Give Up on Cuddyer, Ryan Admits Sticking With Him Was Big Mistake"

From Richard Campbell

1. 90 wins

2. Santana will be in the running for Cy all year long and will win 20 games. Great chance for award.

3. Baker steps up and has a good year.

4. Disappoint both Radke and Silva.

5. Yes, this is Radke’s last year. Silva will walk more than 10. Lohse will be our # Two starter and will be on the team next year. Lohse is looked at by management as insurance now and will be happy that they didn’t trade him. I think he is worth a lot when you consider his age and inning pitched.

6. Mauer will have another great year.

7. Morneau and Bartlett are the keys to this year. Both will play much better than last year.

8. Morneau and Kubel will step up.

9. Disappoint Stewart due to an injury.

10. Eyre has a great year and will end up as a starter.

11. X-factor is Hunter.

12. I hope to read that Rodriguez makes the team. 

From Dan Bruley

1       Twins win 92 games, win division

2        Santana, 22-8     2.82 era   220 innings     loses Cy award to Halladay

3        Baker  12-6 , 3.88 era,   Liriano becomes the new vulture,  10-2 out of the pen , 3.40 era, 8 saves, Lohse goes the distance post a 16-9 record with 3.95 era.

4        Silva goes 12-12 ,  4.75 era ,  145 innings

5        Radke signs on for one more year, Silva wins 12 but walks 22, Lohse stays until the end, Baker and Liriano shine and become mainstays in the rotation, Liriano next year.

6        Joe  Mauer     315/385/495     16 HR  88 RBI

7        Justin Morneau      277/355/545     30 HR    110 RBI

8        J Morneau comes up big.

9        Torii Hunter has a drop off.    250/300/385

10    Batista   245/305/320      White   587/345/480   24HR 95RBI  Castillo 285/380/405

11    Leaders  HR J Morneau  30,,,Batting Avg.  J Mauer  3.15   OPS  Morneau  900   S.B    24 T HUNTER  Wins Santana 22  ERA J Nathan  1.88

12    Minors that impact   Perkins, Jones, Bonser

13    X Factors,  lots of them , Kubel's production, Radke/Silva  health ,  Contributions from Hunter/Stewart, Gardy’s decision making.

14    Kubel wins R.O.Y. ( if he qualifies) , Santana wins the CY,  Morneau and Mauer on the leader board all year. Radke returns , Lohse blossoms , Baker more than solid, New stadium to be built. 

I am starting to feel about Gardenhire the same way I felt about Mike Tice. I know I couldn’t do any better, but I think some of the things he says are goofy or they are being taken way, way  out of context. I wouldn't be surprised if Bartlett took a bat to his door.

From Josh Williams

• How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?
  • 86 – 76, 2^nd Place
• How good will Johan Santana be this year? Another Cy Young?
  • 18 – 9, 3.08 era, lead league in K’s and WHIP, 2^nd place Cy Young
• Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?
  • Scott Baker (double digit wins), Kyle Lohse (15 wins)
• Which pitcher will disappoint?
  • Carlos Silva (difficult year after knee injury), Radke won’t reach 175 innings or 12 wins
• Will this be Radke's last year? Will Silva Win or Walk more than 10?) How long does Lohse stay in the rotation? How do Baker and Liriano perform?
  • Yes.  Silva will walk more than 10.  Lohse will remain in the rotation the entire year.  Baker will be impressive (12 wins, 4.00 era) and Liriano will get about 8 wins with more than a K an inning. 
• Joe Mauer has so much potential. What will he do this year?
  • .297 avg., 32 doubles, 16 homeruns, 78 rbi
• What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?
  • .268 avg., 27 doubles, 29 homeruns, 94 rbi
• Which hitter will step up?
  • Justin Morneau, Rondell White, Justin Morneau
• Which hitter will disappoint?
  • Tony Batista, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel
• What are your thoughts on the new players?
  • Castillo and White were nice economical moves.  Batista is arguably the strangest and most curious signing in the Ryan era. 
• Who will be the Twins leader in:
  • HR:  Morneau
  • Batting Average:  Stewart (bounce back in the contract year)
  • OPS:  (Rondell White)
  • Stolen Bases:  (Ford)
  • Wins:  (Santana)
  • ERA:  (Santana and Nathan for the bullpen)
• Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2006? (please include one that is not named Francisco Liriano or Jason Kubel, however, feel free to discuss both)
  • I think Garrett Jones has a strong chance to make an impact if Morneau gets hurt.  Luis Rodriguez will continue to have quality at bats with runners on.  Boof Bonser could very well find his way into the bullpen as the long reliever. 
• What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?
  • The X-Factor has to be Justin Morneau.  If he has a stellar year and is able to hit .270 - .280 with 30 homers and 100 rbi… watch out!  Torii Hunter, Luis Castillo, Shannon Stewart, and Rondell White need to avoid health issues for this team to go anywhere.    
• What storylines are you hoping to read?
  • The Twins win it!  Johan gets 2^nd Cy and Liriano or Kubel are rookie of the year. 

From Katie Lundquist

How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?
  95 wins, first in division

How good will Johan Santana be this year? Another Cy Young?
  A better first half than the past 2 years, another outstanding second half, and another Cy Young

Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?
  Kyle Lohse will exceed expectations

Which pitcher will disappoint?
  Carlos Silva won't be quite as good as last year.

Will this be Radke's last year? Will Silva Win or Walk more than 10?) How long does Lohse stay in the rotation? How do Baker and Liriano perform?
  Radke will pitch again for the Twins in '07 after a solid year (and better run support than usual)
  Silva will win 12 and walk 9.
  Lohse will be the 4th starter all year.
  Baker will be sent down to Rochester, Liriano will take his place by the All-Star break and do well.

Joe Mauer has so much potential. What will he do this year?
  He'll bat .300, be an exceptional defensive catcher, steal a few bases, and generally improve over last year.

What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?
  Morneau will not fight with Torii anymore.  He'll hit 33 home runs, drive in 100, and may even smile a few times.

Which hitter will step up?
  Lewwwwwwww.  He'll get plenty of playing time as the 4th outfielder and may replace Shannon Stewart in left before the end of '06.

Which hitter will disappoint?
  Batista.  18 home runs, 3 zillion strikeouts.

What are your thoughts on the new players?
  Batista scares me (and will be a worse 3B than Cuddyer was)
  Rondell White seems nice - will replace Jacque Jones for a lot of Twins fans.
  Castillo will be a great addition to the infield.
  I wish Mulholland didn't leave.

Who will be the Twins leader in:
  HR: Morneau
  Batting Average: Mauer
  OPS: Rondell White
  Stolen Bases: Torii
  Wins: Santana
  ERA: Santana

Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2006? (please include one that is not named Francisco Liriano or Jason Kubel, however, feel free to discuss both)
  Terry Tiffee will be called up to replace Batista and Glenn Williams will backup first and third.  Both will be essential to the Twins winning the division, nay, series!

What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?
  Batista.  If I'm wrong and he works out, that would be good too.

What storylines are you hoping to read?
  Lewwww to replace Stewart in left.
  Cuddyer solid in RF.
  Castillo steals 20 - legs fine!
  Santana repeats as unanimous Cy Young winner

From Scott Ostman

I predict another 3rd Place finish for our Twins. The pitching will again be very good but I'm not convinced we did enough to bolster the league's weakest offense. Chicago will again be the top dog. Despite sub par pitching, Cleveland should finish 2nd. Detroit seems to be doing the right things to make a move to possibly even catch the Twins for 3rd. Kansas City...enough said.

Position by position thoughts:

Catcher - What can you say here? Mauer is bona fide stud. Sweet swing and plays the position as well as anybody. I hope his HR and RBI numbers can improve. No reason he should have such few RBIs hitting where he does in the lineup.

1B - Morneau can only be better this year, right? Seems like he has a ton of potential, but last year was by far the biggest disappointment on the team.

2B - Here's our biggest upgrade of the offseason. Castillo will be better than any of the stiffs we had there last year.

3B - Ouch. Batista is definitely not the answer here. This roster move absolutely baffled me. Sorry, but Cuddyer isn't the answer either. I like Seth's idea of dealing Lohse for a third baseman.

SS - Another weak position. Between Bartlett, Castro, Punto and Rodriguez, we have a bunch of clones to play short and no matter which one we trot onto the field, we'll get the same result.

LF - Stewart did not impress me at all last year. I think his days of being in the leadoff spot should be over. Still a decent player but his skills are declining.

CF - What you see is what you get. Hunter is a great defensive player whowill hit .250 or .260 with 25 HRs and a TON of strikeouts on bad pitches every year. I've accepted that his All-Star season was a fluke offensively. He will never be good at the plate.

RF - Hmmmm. I like Kubel a lot, but I think we're all setting ourselves up for a disappointment if we expect him to be the answer this year. Look what happened last year when Morneau was dubbed the second coming of Christ. I just don't think you can put a young player with minimal big league experience in the lineup (especially when coming off a major injury) and expect him to produce big numbers. Give Sweet Lew the nod and slowly work Kubel into the mix.

DH - The second biggest improvement on the team in the offseason. For the first time since Chili Davis, it feels like we actually have a legitimate DH. Loved Matthew LeCroy because he seemed like the kind of guy you'd want to have a beer with. But the guy isn't a good hitter and he runs like William Conrad.

Starting Pitching - Love it. Again, you won't find too many rotations better than this one. I'm going to make a pledge to lay off Bradke this year as I think it will be his last. By leaving him alone will be my little way of thanking him for his many years of loyal service to the Twins. Santana is simply the best pitcher in baseball. He got screwed out of the Cy Young last year because he played on a lousy team. Silva has amazing control. Baker has great potential. Lohse is Lohse. Hopefully Liriano will crack the rotation by mid-season.

Bullpen - I wish we had another lefty in there because once Liriano starts, we'll have no one. Overall I think these guys are top notch and should produce well again.

Cuddyer - Mikey deserves a separate category as he has officially replaced Bradke is my whipping boy for the 2006 season. Hey Terry and Gardy, will this be the year that you finally admit the Michael Cuddyer experiment is over? He's not a terrible player by any means, but he's not exactly a budding superstar anymore either. He's been given ample opportunity to produce at a number of positions and he has failed time and time again. Don't you think if he was any good, he'd have a spot in the starting lineup? I sure do. Let's all agree that he's a good utility guy and leave it at that. Let's not waste our time trying to rationalize his poor play by saying he hasn't been given a fair chance.

From Greg Sifferle

1. How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?
   • Twins will win 91 games and the division
2. How good will Johan Santana be this year? Another Cy Young?
   • Santana will wing 20 games and the Cy Young.
3. Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2005?
   • This is the year that Lohse will finally step it up.
4. Which pitcher will disappoint?
   • Brad Radke will have a slow start and will not be able to shake nagging arm issues.  Liriano will be pitching in his spot by the end of the year.
5. Will this be Radke's last year? Will Silva Win or Walk more than 10?) How long does Lohse stay in the rotation? How do Baker and Liriano perform?
   • This will be Radke’s last season (he wont finish the year).
   • Silva will win 16 haves and walk 15.
   • Lohse will stay in the rotation for the entire season and be respectable. 
6. Joe Mauer has so much potential. What will he do this year?
   • He will hit .310 with 70 RBIs and deserve to win a gold glove but will be denied.
7. What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?
   • He will have a good but not great season hitting .270 with 30 home runs.
8. Which hitter will step up?
   • Last year I predicted Cuddyer would step it up and have a great season.  Despite his enormous potential, I am done making that prediction.  I think this year Kubel will be the guy to make a difference. 
9. Which hitter will disappoint?
   • Stewart.  I like the guy, but, unfortunately, I think the tank is running on empty. 
10. What are your thoughts on the new players?
    • Castillo – This is a great player, who, if he stays healthy, will add a lot to the team in a position that has been nothing in the past. 
    • White – A good hitter.  Been a while since the twins have had that.
    • Batista – He may not be a good hitter or a good fielder, but he always know where to get the good donuts.  You can’t discount what that means to a team.
11. Who will be the Twins leader in:
    • HR: Morneau (30)
    • Batting Average: Maur (.310)
    • OPS: Castillo (.400)
    • Stolen Bases: Hunter (16)
    • Wins: Santana (20)
    • ERA: Santana (2.85)
12. Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2006? (please include one that is not named Francisco Liriano or Jason Kubel, however, feel free to discuss both)
    • I’d like to say Bartlett, but I can’t imagine a situation where he would get the chance.  He is not starting with the team out of spring training despite hitting close to .400.  I don’t see how Castro could play any worse or Bartlett play any better.  If not now when?
    • I have been impressed with the little I have seen of Tyner.  If Stewart gets injured, which is likely, I would like to see how Tyner does with a chance to lead off.  This team could uses some speed.
    • Jones – The Twins need a solid left handed pinch hitter.  If Sierra, for some reason, does not work out I think the only other option is Jones.
13. What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?
    • Having the new players stay healthy and live up to their potential.
    • If one player who had a bad year last year has a great year this year (Cuddyer, Stewart, Morneau).
    • How long it will take for the team to realize how bad Batista and Castro are.
14. What storylines are you hoping to read?
    • April 1, 2006.  Ron Gardenhire entered the twins press room today and exclaimed, “April Fools!!  I can’t believe all you twins fans actually believed we were going to start the season with Castro as Short.”  As it turns out the entire story was an elaborate prank thought up by Torii Hunter as he rehabbed his broken leg.  Hunter said, “I had to have something to keep up my spirits as sat out the last part of the season last year.  The whole idea of having Castro start for a major league team just made me chuckle.”
    • Francisco Liriano, moved to the bullpen wins final ten starts after a shaky start.
    • Jason Kubel and Liriano finish one two in the voting for rookie of the year.
    • With an unprecedented unanimous vote Scott Boras was named agent of the year after winning close to four million for Kyle Lohse in arbitration.

From Beth Miller

Seth Warning!!! Beware... the term "Little Nicky Punto" is used in this entry... I apologize for earlier saying that I would not edit anything. That promise means I must leave it.)

• How many Wins will the Twins record this year? 90.
• Where will they place in the division?  I'm going to say second.  Because it balances my pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic sides nicely.  (The optimistic side now hates me, the pessimistic side is laughing at me, and the realistic side is saying, "How should I know?")
• How good will Johan Santana be this year? Another Cy Young?  Johan will be excellent this year, like always.  But, like last year, he'll be cheated out of the Cy Young--for some dumb reason or another.  Hopefully not the wins this year, though.
• Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2006?  Kyle Lohse.  I'm stretching for this one, but I'm hoping he finally breaks through this year.  Besides, how much further can any of the others step it up? 
• Which pitcher will disappoint?  Hmm.  I think Matt Guerrier will disappoint me personally, but only because he'll finally manage to get his first major league win, and it will either be an away game, or a game I can't attend.  Or he won't get a win at all, which is even worse.
• Will this be Radke's last year? I think it depends on how well he does.  If he equals his 2004 numbers, I think he'll be back.  If he does worse than 2005, then it's a bit more iffy, hedging towards "yes." 
• Will Silva Win or Walk more than 10?  Yes. ;)  I'm pretty sure he'll walk more than 10 (although if he manages to walk less than ten again, I will be in awe of him).  Win is hard to say.
• How long does Lohse stay in the rotation? Obviously, from a previous question, I think Lohse stays in the rotation as long as he's a Twin.  That will be either until he's traded in July, or until the World Series (depending on how he, Baker, and Liriano are doing, and how Bradke's shoulder holds out this year, Lohse will either be a starter or reliever in the World Series). 
• How do Baker and Liriano perform?  Baker is what we saw last year--he'll have some bad days, but they're pretty much not worth crying about when you consider there are more good days.  Liriano will do fine.  He's not Santana, yet, but he will still impresses the socks off of everyone (which really leads for a smelly situation in the ballparks, particularly on hot, humid days).
• Joe Mauer has so much potential. What will he do this year?  If he does what he did last year, I will be extremely contented.  I don't expect him to do any worse, but I'm pretty satisfied with what he did last year.
• What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?  I think he'll be more relaxed this year and hit for a better average.  I'd like to think he'll break the 30-homer curse, but I really don't care too much as long as he's hitting with general power--lots of doubles, etc.
• Which hitter will step up? A tie between Stewart and Morneau.  Stewart is my optimistic side thinking that with Castillo in the line-up, Stewart will hit better (partly because of the competition, and partly because he might get some better pitches).  Then again, since he's hit well in the past, it's really stepping back up.  Morneau will hit better than last year.
• Which hitter will disappoint? I'm going to go with Lewwww.  Not because he'll do worse than last year, but because he won't quite reach his 2004 numbers.
• What are your thoughts on the new players?  I dislike Tony Batista so far.  I like Luis Castillo so far (although his health concerns me--playing on turf won't be good for him).  I'm a little hesitant on Ruben Sierra--he could go either way, and that kinda scares me.
• Who will be the Twins leader in:
  • HR: Morneau
  • Batting Average:  Santana.  Oh--of guys with significant at-bats, I'll go with Castillo.
  • OPS: Justin Morneau
  • Stolen Bases: I think Torii and Little Nicky Punto will tie this one.
  • Wins: I'll go with the safe bet of Santana.  As far as I can tell, Brakde and Baker have spent their lives getting tough losses, so they're out of the competition.
  • ERA: Starters: Santana.  Total: Nathan.
• Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2006? (please include one that is not named Francisco Liriano or Jason Kubel, however, feel free to discuss both).  It depends on what you mean.  Of guys more likely to start the year in the minors, I'll go with Terry Tiffee.  If you're talking about guys without significant major league experience I'll hedge towards Luis Maza.  Of guys coming up with the team and not named Frisco Liriano, I'll go with Willie Eyre.  I think Kubel will be good, but I think people will put too high of expectations on him, and will be disappointed, similar to their disappointments in Joe Mauer not hitting for more power, Justin Morneau not becoming David Ortiz with Defense, and Lewww Ford not hitting exactly the same in 2005 as he did in 2004.   Frisco Liriano will disappoint us some day, but I think he'll show amazing signs of brilliance, too.
• What would you say that X-Factor is for the team? "Okay, hitters.  This is a bat, and this is a ball.  Now, we don't like them to come in contact with each other when our pitchers are pitching.  But it's GOOD when they come together when you guys are at the plate.  Any questions?"  It all comes down to hitting.
• What storylines are you hoping to read? "Silva pitches full year; less total pitches than Mariano Rivera" "Santana wins unanimous Cy Young…Again"  "Liriano: Rookie of the Year" "Why are the Yankees wearing clown noses?"  "Michael Cuddyer: AL MVP"  I don't really expect to read any of these this year, but you gotta admit, any single one of them would be great!

From Nick Herling

I think the Twin’s will finish the year with a record of 95-67 and first in the AL Central, but I’m biased and very optimistic!  Johan will be dominant, but that’s no surprise.  I think he’ll get the run support to win 20 or more with a minuscule 2.5 ERA. Maybe approaching 300K!   I think I’ve come to expect that out of him, which isn’t fair, but we all know he’s very capable. I think Lohse will step it up in 2006, making it very hard to want to make a deal for him.  I think Radke and Silva will have somewhat disappointing years, with one of them going down with an injury.  That will give Liriano his shot in the rotation. No, it won’t be Radke’s last year, he’ll be back!  Silva will win and walk more than 10!  I think Lohse will be in the rotation all year, with a Garland 2005 type year.  Baker and Liriano will both have up and down years, but for the most part will perform very well. 

I think Mauer will have a year very much like the year he had last year, which was very solid.  I think all of his numbers will increase, but not a huge increase.  Maybe 15 HR and 70 RBI?  Justin Morneau will break out and we’ll finally have our 30 HR guy.  I’m hoping his avg. gets up to around .280.  I didn’t like the Batista signing from the start, so I think he’ll be the hitter to disappoint us.  But, I also hope he proves everyone wrong.  Castillo will be what he has been over the years, he’ll get on base, which I love.  I just hope he can stay healthy on the turf. 

Leader in:

HR – Morneau

Avg. – Mauer (.314)

OPS – Mauer

SB – Ford

Wins- Santana

ERA – Santana

I think Willie Eyre will be the minor leaguer with the biggest impact.  He’ll be a solid long relief guy out of the pen.  If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training, I think he’ll be there by mid season. 

I think the X-factor for this team is obvious!  They need to get on base and score runs for the pitching staff.  I think they’ll do that, and surprise a lot of people that are picking them 3^rd in the division.  I’m predicting a solid start to the season, with no let down.  It will be a close 3 team race the whole year with the Twin’s coming out on top.

From Andy Haider

How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?

 

The Twins will net 90 wins this season ... good for a second place finish.

 

How many Wins will the Twins record this year? Where will they place in the division?

 

Johan will go 18-7 with a 3.20 ERA.  Surprisingly, he will finish second in the Cy Young award balloting to Randy Johnson.

Which other pitchers will step-it-up in 2006?

This is the easiest question of the list ... Kyle Lohse is playing for a contract.

Which pitcher will disappoint?

I think it will take at least one more year for the unrealistic expectations being put on Liriano, much like Morneau from 2005.

Will this be Radke's last year? Will Silva Win or Walk more than 10?) How long does Lohse stay in the rotation? How do Baker and Liriano perform?

Yes, it will be Radke's last year.  I am not even sure he is going to make it through the year.  Silva will walk more than he wins and he will win about 14.  I think Baker will perform at league average and Liriano will be a disappointment (below league average) ... especially given the expectations of being the next King Felix.

Joe Mauer has so much potential. What will he do this year?

I will suggest .305 / .392 / . 467 are appropriate numbers.  He will have an injury (though hopefully minor) sometime during the year. 

What are your predictions for Justin Morneau?

I will suggest .270 / .340 / .480.  He will be hitting clean-up by mid-season ... with a new lineup of Castillo, Mauer, Stewart, Morneau, White, Hunter, Kubel, Tiffee, Bartlett.   You might interchange Hunter and Stewart, but I am optimistic that Stewart's on base percentage will increase about 25 points over last year's ridiculously low levels.

Which hitter will step up?

I think this team lives and dies via Shannon Stewart's on base percentage.  If it returns to normal levels as I suggested, it will be an underappreciated but crucial component of the Twins success.

What are your thoughts on the new players?

My favorite signing is Rhondell White.  I think he will be a vocal clubhouse leader.  This will be important as Torii seems to be speaking inappropriately lately.  I really like his comments regarding Kubel.  Count me in the believers that he will remain healthy now that he is not playing the field.  I think the most underappreciated impact of the Castillo trade was his gold glove defense.  If he can stay on the field, this will be important.  I was glad to see that Bowyer didn't even make the Marlins opening day roster.   I don't know why they put the buy-out clause in Batista's contract ... because I don't really understand how much worse of a spring he needed to have in order to not make the team.  Moses can't accelerate his development fast enough. 

Who will be the Twins leader in:

• HR: Justin Morneau (32)

• Batting Average: Joe Mauer (.305)

• OPS:  Joe Mauer (.859)

• Stolen Bases: Luis Castillo (16)

• Wins: Johan Santana (18)

• ERA: Johan Santana (3.20)

Which minor leaguer will have the most impact on the Twins in 2006? (please include one that is not named Francisco Liriano or Jason Kubel, however, feel free to discuss both)

Kubel will have a positive impact and receive nearly 450 productive at bats this season.  I have already spoken to the fact that Liriana will continue to show promise, but the results will not occur until the 2007 season.  I don't know how many wins everyone is expecting from Scott Baker ... but I would say that the 11 will be hugely important.  Does he not qualify as a rookie?  (I am too lazy to look it up.)  I believe Reyes will be given a legitimate shot later in the year to be an effective LOOGY.  While experienced, he is in the minor leagues and I do think he will get the job done.  I would not be surprised if it is Perkins or Miller though. 

What would you say that X-Factor is for the team?

I think the biggest x-factor for the team is what is done at the mid-season trading deadline.  They will trade one of their prospects for a third baseman and/or relief help and we will all wonder why they are giving so much away.  Terry Ryan seems primed to make a stupid move after taking so much abuse for not making the minor leaguers available to trades. 

What storylines are you hoping to read?

I am looking forward to reading Seth Stohs ongoing reports with regards to the development of the minor leaguers.  While I am interested in how the pitching sorts itself out, we seem to have hints to this already.  I am mostly interested in seeing which of the middle infield prospects start taking a fast track to the majors.  I expect a New Britain and Fort Myers championship season.

Thank you to everyone who took the time to contribute their thoughts to this posting. I really do appreciate. And, the most fun part about making these preseason predictions is that we can take a look at them at the All-Star break and then again at the end of the season and see if we were even close! I hope you’ve enjoyed this, and if you would like to contribute your thoughts, please e-mail me today and I will add your predictions to the bottom of the others as I receive them.

That's it for today. Have a great Monday and a wonderful week!

WEEKEND NOTES:

These thoughts/links were posted over the weekend.